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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sizing and Location Selection of Medium‐Voltage Back‐to‐Back Converters for DER‐Dominated Distribution Systems

Medium‐voltage back‐to‐back (MVB2B) converters can connect two distribution systems and quantifiably transfer power between them. This function can enable the MVB2B converter to exchange distributed energy resource (DER)‐generated power between two systems and bring significant value to enhancing distribution system DER adoption. Our previous work analysed and demonstrated the value MVB2B converter can bring to DER integration. As continuous work, this paper presents a methodology that helps address the MVB2B converter sizing and location selection problem in distribution systems with high DER penetrations. The proposed methodology aims to address three critical problems for MVB2B converter implementation in the real world: (1) which distribution systems are better to be connected, (2) what converter size is appropriate for connecting the distribution systems, and (3) where the optimal connection points are in the systems for connecting the MVB2B converter. The proposed methodology has been demonstrated by case studies that include various scenarios involving distribution systems with different dominated load types and high photovoltaic penetrations. The results demonstrate that selecting the optimal converter size based on net revenue and time of return considerations leads to a balance between maximizing energy savings and minimizing financial payback periods. Furthermore, feeder pair selection based on load profile standard deviation effectively identifies systems that derive the greatest value from MVB2B integration. Finally, an optimized connection point selection approach using a voltage load sensitivity matrix ensures minimal system impact while facilitating efficient power exchange. These findings provide practical insights for the real‐world deployment of MVB2B converters to enhance DER hosting capacity and improve grid resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FPV) Deployment: Exploring the Operational Benefits of Floating Solar-Hydropower Hybrids

The Southeast (SE) Asia region is undergoing rapid energy sector transitions and exploring the potential role of renewables - including solar photovoltaics (PV) - as it becomes increasingly competitive as a result of technological advances and falling capital costs. Low-cost solar PV provides countries in the region with an option to meet increasing energy demand and diversify generation portfolios, complementing hydropower and thermal-dominant systems and strengthening energy security throughout the region. Floating solar PV (FPV) has emerged as an attractive application of solar PV that allows for systems to be floated on water bodies. Pairing FPV in hybrid systems with hydropower may also provide significant value for power systems in the region, beyond oft-cited co-benefits of stand-alone FPV. Despite growing interest in FPV systems, few applications of hybrid FPV-hydropower systems exist in SE Asia, and limited information is available about the co-benefits these systems may provide for potential adopters. This work, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through the Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia, explores the value that hybrid FPV-hydropower systems may provide to the power systems of SE Asian countries. This work on the value of hybrid FPV-hydropower systems is accompanied by a recent report, Creating an Enabling Policy and Regulatory Environment for Floating Solar Photovoltaics: Review of Barriers to FPV Deployment in Southeast Asia, also focused on SE Asia.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Perceived Conflicts of Systems Engineering in Early-Stage Research and Development 1

Early Systems Research and Development (ESR&D) is one of the most crucial phases in the product development process. It both blends and blurs the lines between science and engineering, and requires a risk-based, disciplined, and graded approach to effectively manage scope, cost, and complexity of the final product. Many leaders, program managers, and scientists are unwilling to involve systems engineering because of the perception that systems engineering is heavily process oriented, adds unnecessary costs, and should be applied only to mature technologies. The value of systems engineering as applied to ESR&D is unclear to these key individuals. The unfortunate result is that system engineering is not applied to ESR&D. This results in R&D efforts that may have solved the wrong problem, selected the wrong architecture, require technical rework, have difficulty transitioning later maturity levels, and result in higher R&D costs and extended development timelines. This work discusses the difficulty of introducing systems engineering to the research and early development process and their inclination perspectives of researchers, engineers, and managers. The article shall offer potential means to manage the cultural transformation of early adoption of right-sized systems engineering in ESR&D and reverse the attitudinal positions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flexible Nuclear Energy for Clean Energy Systems

As part of the Nuclear Innovation: Clean Energy Future initiative, this report describes flexibility in nuclear systems, the value it can bring, and international experiences surrounding flexible nuclear energy. Flexible nuclear energy for this report is defined as “The ability of nuclear energy generation to economically provide energy services at the time and location they are needed by end-users. These energy services can include both electric and non-electric applications utilizing both traditional nuclear power plants and advanced integrated systems.” Flexibility in nuclear systems is enabled by three main mechanisms: core ramping, integrated energy systems with multiple byproducts, and thermal storage. The value of this flexibility on a $\$$/MW and a $\$$/MWh basis can be estimated through a combination of physics and economics modeling. International agencies describe their experiences in operating flexible nuclear systems and describe their plans for increasing nuclear flexibility in a clean energy system, likely with a high penetration of variable renewable energy.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

OctoFAS: A Two-Level Fair Scheduler That Increases Fairness in Network-Based Key-Value Storage

We identified a fairness problem in a network-based key-value storage system using Intel Storage Performance Development Kit (SPDK) in a multitenant environment. In such an environment, each tenant’s I/O service rate is not fairly guaranteed compared to that of other tenants. To address the fairness problem, we propose OctoFAS, a two-level fair scheduler designed to improve overall throughput and fairness among tenants. The two-level scheduler of OctoFAS consists of (i) inter-core scheduling and (ii) intra-core scheduling. Through inter-core scheduling, OctoFAS addresses the load imbalance problem that is inherent in SPDK on the storage server by dynamically migrating I/O requests from overloaded cores to underloaded cores, thereby increasing overall throughput. Intra-core scheduling prioritizes handling requests from starving tenants over well-fed tenants within core-specific event queues to ensure fair I/O services among multiple tenants. OctoFAS is deployed on a Linux cluster with SPDK. Through extensive evaluations, we found that OctoFAS ensures that the total system throughput remains high and balanced, while enhancing fairness by approximately 10% compared to the baseline, when both scheduling levels operate in a hybrid fashion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Value Drivers

Conventional hydro resources generate the majority of their value by providing energy under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing ancillary services and capacity increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. Pumped storage hydropower resources generate the majority of their value by providing capacity under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing energy increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. The total value of conventional hydropower generally decreases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs; this is largely due to the associated decrease in average energy prices. The total value of pumped storage generally increases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs, largely due to opportunities to operate in pumping mode when energy prices are low or even negative. Energy storage representation must be enhanced to ensure that models accurately capture system value streams for these resources. Current power system models have a limited ability to capture the price dynamics of ancillary services, and it is still challenging to assess the role and magnitude of ancillary service value streams in future systems. Power systems are currently in a state of rapid and dramatic evolution due to a number of different factors, including the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This evolution will change the way power systems are fundamentally planned and operated. Some of these changes may be incremental, while others may be more significant, but the result will likely be parallel evolution in the definition and requirement of different grid services and therefore a subsequent shift in their relative values. This report presents a framework developed to identify such system value drivers and quantify their relative impact on several different value streams, with a specific focus on implications for conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources. This value drivers framework (VDF) encompasses five core analytical steps: 1. Identify potential drivers and develop scenarios, 2. Execute production cost models, 3. Calibrate prices, 4. Optimize hydropower operations, and 5. Quantify value drivers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The frequency of metal enrichment of cool helium-atmosphere white dwarfs using the DESI early data release

There is an overwhelming evidence that white dwarfs host planetary systems; revealed by the presence, disruption, and accretion of planetary bodies. A lower limit on the frequency of white dwarfs that host planetary material has been estimated to be ≃ 25–50 per cent; inferred from the ongoing or recent accretion of metals on to both hydrogen-atmosphere and warm helium-atmosphere white dwarfs. Now with the unbiased sample of white dwarfs observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey in their Early Data Release (EDR), we have determined the frequency of metal enrichment around cool-helium atmosphere white dwarfs as 21 ± 3 per cent using a sample of 234 systems. This value is in good agreement with values determined from previous studies. With the current samples we cannot distinguish whether the frequency of planetary accretion varies with system age or host-star mass, but the DESI data release 1 will contain roughly an order of magnitude more white dwarfs than DESI EDR and will allow these parameters to be investigated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Secure hierarchical processing using a secure ledger

Disclosed is a system and method for processing data using blockchain technology. The system includes a memory having programmable instructions stored thereon that, when executed by a processor, cause the system to: authenticate one or more sensors in anticipation of receiving component data; receive component data, upon successful authentication; store the component data locally or to a cloud-based server and/or calculate a root value for the component data; store or embed the root value with the stored component data; condense the component data and link the condensed component data to the stored component data via the root value. The system further includes instructions to log the condensed data, including the root value, to a ledger, and to identify a tag or transaction id corresponding to the logging event for subsequent retrieval of the condensed data using the tag or transaction id.

Zhao, Wenbing↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review on the integration of probabilistic solar forecasting in power systems

As one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources, the integration of solar power poses great challenges to power systems due to its variable and uncertain nature. As an effective approach to promote the integration of solar power in power systems, the value of probabilistic forecasts is being increasingly recognized in the recent decade. While the current use of probabilistic forecasts in power systems is limited, enormous amount of research has been conducted to promote the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and many methods have been proposed. This paper gives a comprehensive review on how probabilistic solar forecasts are utilized in power systems to address the challenges. Potential methods to deal with uncertainties in power systems are summarized, such as probabilistic load flow models, stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and chance constraints. Additionally, specific areas where these methods can be applied are discussed and state-of-the-art studies are summarized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Abstract Behind the meter rooftop solar plus storage (PVESS) has the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Whereas the bill reduction and environmental benefits of PVESS are well studied, its monetary resilience benefits are less understood. The increasing trend of power interruptions driven by extreme weather events heightens the need to understand these benefits. This study leverages various publicly available datasets to perform a cost benefit analysis of adding to determine the resilience value of PVESS for a typical single family home in each county in the continental U.S. We find that PVESS is very effective to technically mitigate interruptions across the country. However, the monetary benefits in the base case only cover about 14% of battery costs, with no county exceeding 60%. This is somewhat expected, given that PVESS provide other monetary benefits that are not part of this analysis. Through sensitivities, we find that higher frequency of extreme weather events roughly triples the resilience value of PVESS and that higher values of lost load double the same metric. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the benefit cost ratio of PVESS for customers living in areas with higher-than-average frequency of long duration interruptions and value of lost load is already above one even without considering other value streams. We conclude with recommendations that regulators and utilities could implement to enable customers to calculate and capture the resilience value of PVESS more efficiently.

Baik, Sunhee↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗
DOE OSTI2023

The isospin-3 three-particle K -matrix at NLO in ChPT

The three-particle K-matrix, K df,3 , is a scheme-dependent quantity that parametrizes short-range three-particle interactions in the relativistic-field-theory three-particle finite-volume formalism. In this work, we compute its value for systems of three pions at maximal isospin through next-to-leading order (NLO) in Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT). We compare the values to existing lattice QCD results and find that the agreement between lattice QCD data and ChPT in the first two coefficients of the threshold expansion of K df,3 is significantly improved with respect to leading order once NLO effects are incorporated.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefit Analysis of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares

The integration of high shares of variable renewable energy raises challenges for the reliability and cost-effectiveness of power systems. The value of long-duration energy storage, which helps address variability in renewable energy supply across days and seasons, is poised to grow significantly as power systems shift to larger shares of variable generation such as wind and solar. This study explores the system-level services and associated benefits of long-duration energy storage on the 2050 Western Interconnection (WI). The operation of the future WI system with 85% renewable penetration is simulated using a two-stage production cost model. The impact of long duration energy storage on systemwide operations is examined for the 2050 WI system, using a range of round-trip efficiencies corresponding to four different energy storage technologies. The analysis projects the energy storage dispatch profile, system-wide production cost savings (from both diurnal and seasonal operation), and impacts on generation mix, and change in renewable generation curtailment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems: Preprint

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗