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A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗

Role of Mineralogy in Controlling Fracture Formation

The presence of fractures in caprocks can pose increased risks in subsurface energy systems and processes like CO 2 sequestration by introducing high-permeability leakage paths. Fracture apertures and permeability can be altered through mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions, but the reactive evolution of fractures is not well understood. In fractures, minerals that are otherwise inaccessible to reactive fluids can become exposed, resulting in mineral reactions unpredicted by bulk formation data. This work seeks to understand the relationship between mineralogy and fracture formation to enhance our understanding of reactive fracture evolution and CO 2 leakage potential. Here, the mineral compositions of mechanically induced fracture surfaces in samples of the Mancos and Marcellus shales have been quantified and compared to those of the near-fracture matrices using imaging and bulk X-ray diffraction (XRD) data. In the Mancos shale, the concentrations of clay minerals are enhanced along fracture surfaces with respect to the bulk, and the fracture is most likely to form at kaolinite–kaolinite interfaces. Further, evaluation of the mineralogical spatial variability through cross-correlation analysis of the surrounding matrix in images of samples cut perpendicular to the fracture shows that clay is 16.7 times more likely to be present than carbonate minerals near the fracture surface. The high correlation persists roughly 200 μm into the surrounding matrix for the Mancos sample and implies that the fracture formed within a defined clay-rich lithofacies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Understanding the hydrological response of a headwater-dominated catchment by analysis of distributed surface–subsurface interactions

Abstract We computationally explore the relationship between surface–subsurface exchange and hydrological response in a headwater-dominated high elevation, mountainous catchment in East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. In order to isolate the effect of surface–subsurface exchange on the hydrological response, we compare three model variations that differ only in soil permeability. Traditional methods of hydrograph analysis that have been developed for headwater catchments may fail to properly characterize catchments, where catchment response is tightly coupled to headwater inflow. Analyzing the spatially distributed hydrological response of such catchments gives additional information on the catchment functioning. Thus, we compute hydrographs, hydrological indices, and spatio-temporal distributions of hydrological variables. The indices and distributions are then linked to the hydrograph at the outlet of the catchment. Our results show that changes in the surface–subsurface exchange fluxes trigger different flow regimes, connectivity dynamics, and runoff generation mechanisms inside the catchment, and hence, affect the distributed hydrological response. Further, changes in surface–subsurface exchange rates lead to a nonlinear change in the degree of connectivity—quantified through the number of disconnected clusters of ponding water—in the catchment. Although the runoff formation in the catchment changes significantly, these changes do not significantly alter the aggregated streamflow hydrograph. This hints at a crucial gap in our ability to infer catchment function from aggregated signatures. We show that while these changes in distributed hydrological response may not always be observable through aggregated hydrological signatures, they can be quantified through the use of indices of connectivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution Computed Tomography Dataset of Mount Simon Sandstone

The Illinois Basin is a critical structure for subsurface energy related activities and their implementation in the United States. The Mount Simon Sandstone has been identified as a storage target for permanent and transient storage of fluids in the basin. Known for its exceptional thickness, depth, porosity, and sealing properties of overlying formations, this saline reservoir is crucial for long-term subsurface energy efforts. We present an extensive Computed Tomography (CT) dataset on a high porosity and permeability zone in the lower Mount Simon Sandstone available on the Energy Data eXchange® (EDX). This publicly accessible database comprises over 500 GB of high-resolution CT scans of six core samples, with resolutions ranging from 14.8 µm to 0.7 µm per pixel. The scans include both dry sandstone samples and those saturated with multiple fluids, allowing for comparative analyses across different conditions and resolutions. Coarser scans capture the bedding structure of the sandstone, while finer resolutions reveal detailed pore infill and throat characteristics. Metadata on location, depth, and saturation state enhance usability, enabling quick identification and cross-sample comparisons. By providing a robust resource for research and collaboration, the database contributes to domestic energy advancement by supporting continued progress in the use of the subsurface for energy solutions.

characterization↗

Geological activity shapes the microbiome in deep-subsurface aquifers by advection

Subsurface environments host diverse microorganisms in fluid-filled fractures; however, little is known about how geological and hydrological processes shape the subterranean biosphere. Here, we sampled three flowing boreholes weekly for 10 mo in a 1478-m-deep fractured rock aquifer to study the role of fracture activity (defined as seismically or aseismically induced fracture aperture change) and advection on fluid-associated microbial community composition. We found that despite a largely stable deep-subsurface fluid microbiome, drastic community-level shifts occurred after events signifying physical changes in the permeable fracture network. The community-level shifts include the emergence of microbial families from undetected to over 50% relative abundance, as well as the replacement of the community in one borehole by the earlier community from a different borehole. Null-model analysis indicates that the observed spatial and temporal community turnover was primarily driven by stochastic processes (as opposed to deterministic processes). We, therefore, conclude that the observed community-level shifts resulted from the physical transport of distinct microbial communities from other fracture(s) that outpaced environmental selection. Given that geological activity is a major cause of fracture activity and that geological activity is ubiquitous across space and time on Earth, our findings suggest that advection induced by geological activity is a general mechanism shaping the microbial biogeography and diversity in deep-subsurface habitats across the globe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Permeability scaling relationships of volcanic tuff from core to field scale measurements

A recent chemical explosive test in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA, was conducted to better understand how signals propagate from explosions in the subsurface. A primary signal of interest is the migration of gases that can be used to differentiate chemical from nuclear explosions. Gas migration is highly dependent on the rock permeability which is notoriously difficult to determine experimentally in the field due to a potentially large dependence on the scale over which measurements are made. Here, we present pre-explosion permeability estimates to characterize the geologic units surrounding the recent test. Permeability measurements were made at three scales of increasing size: core samples (≈2 cm), borehole packer system tests (≈1 m), and a pre-shot cavity pressurization test (> 10 m) across ten tuff units. Permeability estimates based on core measurements showed little difference from borehole packer tests. However, permeability in most rock units calibrated from cavity pressurization tests resulted in higher permeability estimates by up to two orders of magnitude. Here, we demonstrate that the scale of the measurement significantly impacts the characterization efforts of hydraulic properties in volcanic tuff, and that local-scale measurements (< 10 m scale) do not incorporate enough heterogeneity to accurately predict field-scale flow and mass transport.

Environmental sciences↗

An integrated approach to derive relative permeability from capillary pressure

Surface tension affects all aspects of fluid flow in porous media. Through measurements of surface tension interaction under multiphase conditions, a relative permeability curve can be determined. Relative permeability is a numerical description of the interaction between two or more fluids and the porous media. It is a critical parameter for various tools that characterize subsurface multiphase flow systems, such as numerical simulation for carbon sequestration, oil and gas development, and groundwater contamination remediation. Therefore, it is critical to get a good statistical distribution of relative permeability in the porous media under study. Empirical formula for determining relative permeability from capillary pressure are already well established but do not provide the needed flexibility that is required to match laboratory-derived relative permeability curves. By expanding the existing methods for calculating relative permeability from capillary pressure data, it is possible to create both two and three-phase relative permeability curves. Mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP) data from the Morrow 'B' Sandstone coupled with interfacial tension and contact angle measurements were used to create a suite of relative permeability curves. Furthermore, these curves were then calibrated to a small sample of existing laboratory curves to elucidate common fitting parameters for the formation that were then used to create relative permeability curves from MICP data that does not have an associated laboratory-measured relative permeability curve.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Possible Mars brines - Equilibrium and kinetic considerations

To determine the fate of postulated near surface brines on Mars, the rate of H2O mass loss from subsurface brines was calculated as a function of latitude, depth, regolith porosity, eutectic temperature, and pore size. A model for a chemically reasonable brine that could reproduce Martian radar results was developed, and the escape rate of H2O molecules from such a brine was estimated. It is suggested that the presence of a low-permeability duricrust may be required to preserve such a brine for reasonable periods, and to prevent detection of an extensive subsurface system by the Viking MAWD instrument.

Zent, A. P.↗

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗

Quartz Dissolution Effects on Flow Channelization and Transport Behavior in Three‐Dimensional Fracture Networks

We perform a set of reactive transport simulations in three-dimensional fracture networks to characterize the impact of geochemical reactions on flow channelization. Flow channelization, a frequently observed phenomenon in porous and fractured subsurface rock formations, results from the spatially variable hydraulic resistance offered by a geological structure. In addition to geo-structural features such as network connectivity, geometry, and hydraulic resistance, geochemical reactions, for example, dissolution and precipitation, can dynamically inhibit or enhance flow channelization. These geochemical processes can change the fracture permeability leading to increased flow channelization, which are localized connected regions of high volumetric flow rates that are seemingly ubiquitous in the subsurface. In our simulations, fractures partially filled with quartz are gradually dissolved until quasi-steady state conditions are obtained. We compare the flow field's initial unreacted and final dissolved states in terms of flow and transport observations. We observe that the dissolved fracture networks provide less resistance to flow and exhibit increased flow channelization when compared to their unreacted counterparts. However, there is substantial variability in the magnitude of these changes which implies that the channelization strongly depends on the network structure. In turn, we identify the interplay between the particular network structure and the impact of geochemical dissolution on flow channelization. The presented results indicate that geological systems that have been weathering or reactive for longer times in older landscapes are likely to have increased flow channelization compared to their equivalent but younger counterparts, which implies a time dependence on flow channelization in fractured media.

Hyman, Jeffrey D.↗

Capillary Pressure to Relative Permeability: Task 7.3.4 Relative Permeability Analysis Final Report

Surface tension affects all aspects of fluid flow in porous media. Through measurements of surface tension interaction under multiphase conditions, a relative permeability relationship can be determined. Relative permeability is a numerical description of the interplay between two or more fluids and the porous media they flow through. It is a critical parameter for various tools used to characterized subsurface multiphase flow systems, such as numerical simulation for oil and gas development, carbon sequestration, and groundwater contamination remediation. Therefore, it is critical to get a good statistic distribution of relative permeability in the porous media under study. Empirical relationships for determining relative permeability from capillary pressure are already well established but do not provide the needed flexibility required to match laboratory derive relative permeability relationships. By expanding the existing methods for calculating relative permeability from capillary pressure data, it is possible to create both two and three-phase relative permeability relationships. Existing laboratory-measured relative permeability data along with mercury intrusion capillary (MICP) data coupled with interfacial tension and contact angle measurements were used to determine the efficacy of this approach to relative permeability curve creation. The relative permeability relationships determined with this method were fit to existing laboratory data to elucidate common fitting parameters that were then used to create relative permeability relationships from MICP data that does not have an associated laboratory-measured relative permeability relationship.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulated CO 2 storage efficiency factors for saline formations of various lithologies and depositional environments using new experimental relative permeability data

Saline formations are attractive geologic reservoirs for permanent carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. Here, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) has worked to develop and refine methods and tools for the calculation of CO 2 storage potential in subsurface reservoirs. DOE-NETL's CO 2 -SCREEN provides an online tool for executing these storage methods. CO 2 storage efficiency terms are input parameters in DOE-NETL's methods and equations embedded in the CO 2 -SCREEN, which assesses pore space available for CO 2 storage. In this work, a modeling workflow was initiated to refine two CO 2 storage efficiency terms - volumetric displacement (E V ) and microscopic displacement (E d ). The models are based on new experimental relative permeability data that are specific to homogenous lithology and depositional environments of key subsurface saline formations targeted for CO 2 storage. In future work, heterogenous features will be added to this initial modeling effort to update efficiency factors as described in DOE-NETL's methods and CO 2 -SCREEN tool. E V accounts for the volume utilized in the reservoir under the areal plume, while E d accounts for saturation values in the plume to assess efficiency of CO 2 storage at the pore scale. The results of this work are significant in that prior values were based on a limited geologically non-specific relative permeability data set that were collected prior to 2009. Specifically, we applied numerical simulations using TOUGH3 models to update CO 2 storage efficiency values for supercritical CO 2 injection into brine-saturated reservoirs for three lithologies (clastics, limestone, dolomite) and six depositional environments (Marginal Marine, Strand Plain, Deltaic Complex Fluvial, Aeolian, Shallow Marine, and Reef) that have a high potential for geologic CO 2 storage. Experimental relative permeability data in cores from these environments were utilized in the models with corresponding rock type/sedimentary environment. Results of this study showed that dolomite followed by limestone generated higher ranges of storage efficiency compared to clastics. The updated values provided a tighter efficiency range for clastics, lower P 10 but higher P 90 range for limestone, and higher P 10 and P 90 for dolomite. In general, tighter reservoirs with relatively low permeability and porosity were associated with higher E V and E d , showing efficient reservoir and pore utilization in these scenarios. High reservoir pressure and temperature associated with increasing depth increased the E V , and high CO 2 injection rates resulted in increases in E V and E d , while the impact of permeability anisotropy was minimal after the 30-year injection period.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Subsurface sounders

Airborne or spaceborne electromagnetic systems used to detect subsurface features are discussed. Data are given as a function of resistivity of ground material, magnetic permeability of free space, and angular frequency. It was noted that resistivities vary with the water content and temperature.

Source record↗

Effect of CO 2 -brine-rock reactions on pore architecture and permeability in dolostone: Implications for CO 2 storage and EOR

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is considered a feasible technology for storing substantive volumes of greenhouse gases in subsurface geological formations. In the reservoir, far from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection wells or in post-injection scenarios, diffusion dominates over advection. This condition conjoins with spatially distributed geochemical reactions to induce heterogeneous changes in pore architecture, i.e. pore body and throat sizes or surface roughness. These changes can affect CO 2 transport properties and storage capacity. In this work, we investigated mineral dissolution and precipitation in dolomite samples saturated with a CO 2 -saturated brine at 93 °C and 34.5 MPa, aged without flow. Two rock types samples, i.e. intergranular- and vuggy-dominant, were selected to investigate changes in pore size, porosity and permeability under reactive conditions. Mineral dissolution and precipitation were characterized using scanning electron microscopy. Changes in pore size were quantified via time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR) transverse relaxation time (T 2 ) and diffusion coefficient (D) distributions. We show that mineral dissolution likely occurs in highly permeable pathways. These observations are confirmed through analysis of (T 2 ) and diffusion coefficient (D) distributions. In contrast to results during CO 2 -enriched brine continuous injection, mineral precipitation was observed in micropores. The leftward shift of the T 2 peaks, corresponding to micropores, also evidenced mineral precipitation in lowpermeability zones. However, microscale alterations resulted only in a subtle increase in porosity and permeability. Results in this study shed light on effects of geochemical reactions on alteration of rock properties in diffusion-dominated regions during CO 2 storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗