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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution System Segmented Model Simplification with Independent Dynamically Changing End-Use Loads

With more emerging technologies in power distribution systems, to support quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation over short time frames, accurately modeling the dynamic behavior of end-use load under various conditions is im- portant. However, time and cost can be a burden for the QSTS simulation of thousands of houses representing dynamic load behaviors on large distribution feeders. There are two main contributions of this paper in order to reduce the QSTS simulation complexity. First, the paper presents a method to stochasti- cally model the dynamic behavior of end-use load for QSTS simulations. Second, using the stochastically modeled load behavior as an input to a distribution sys- tem, and building on our previous QSTS simulation simplification/acceleration method that relies on uniform load behavior, this paper presents a segment substitution approach for the simplification of distribution system models with independent dynamically changing end-use loads. Our numerical results show that compared to GridLAB-D, a software tool that simulates end-use load be- havior through physical models, the proposed stochastic modeling approach achieved an 89.3% simulation time reduction for end-use loads, while accurately capturing the temporally changing total load behavior. Moreover, the QSTS simulation of a large test distribution system through OpenDSS showed that the proposed simplification method decreased the feeder simulation time by a factor of three at less than 0.3% voltage error. Compared to our previous method with independent dynamic loads, the voltage error is reduced by a factor of four.

Power distribution system modeling, stochastic pro↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trustworthy Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Predictive Scientific Computing

This project has developed powerful trustworthy physics-informed deep learning (TPiDL) models and methods to fundamentally enhance the scale and power of computational modeling in the scientific and engineering domains. Deep learning (DL) has radically advanced the state-of-the-art in machine learning, computer vision, natural language processing, and also scientific computing. Nevertheless, progress has been driven almost entirely by empirical observations, hacks, and tricks. Under the support of this project, the graph operator learning tools and advanced trustworthy physical informed neural networks have been developed. In addition, stochastic gradient replica-exchange Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms have been designed to quantify the uncertainties and speed up the training of large-scale neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

MASTODON: An Open-Source Software for Seismic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure

Seismic analysis and risk assessment of safety-critical infrastructure like hospitals, nuclear power plants, dams, and facilities handling radioactive materials involve computationally intensive numerical models and coupled multiphysics scenarios. They are also performed in a strict regulatory environment that requires high software quality assurance standards, and in the case of safety-related nuclear facilities, a conformance to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) standard. This paper introduces the open-source finite-element software, MASTODON (Multi-hazard Analysis of Stochastic Time-Domain Phenomena), which implements state-of-the-art seismic analysis and risk assessment tools in a quality-controlled environment. MASTODON is built on MOOSE (Multi-physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), which is a highly parallelizable, NQA-1 conforming, coupled multiphysics, finite-element framework developed at Idaho National Laboratory. MASTODON is capable of fault rupture and source-to-site wave propagation using the domain reduction method, nonlinear site response, and soil-structure interaction analysis, implicit and explicit time integration, automated stochastic simulations, and seismic probabilistic risk assessment. When coupled with other MOOSE applications, MASTODON can also solve strongly and weakly coupled multiphysics problems. This paper presents a summary of the capabilities of MASTODON and some demonstrative examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reshaping the Quantum Arrow of Time

While the microscopic laws of physics are often symmetric under time reversal, most natural processes that we observe are not. The emergent asymmetry between typical and time-reversed processes is referred to as the arrow of time. In quantum physics, an arrow of time emerges when a sequence of measurements is performed on a system. We introduce quantum control tools that can yield dynamics more consistent with time flowing backward than forward. The control tools are based on the explicit construction of a Hamiltonian that can replicate the stochastic trajectories of a monitored quantum system. Such a Hamiltonian can reverse the effect of monitoring and, via a feedback process, generate trajectories consistent with a reversed arrow of time. It can also be used to simulate the backward-in-time dynamics of an open quantum system. Finally, we design a feedback-driven continuous measurement engine powered by the energy pumped into the system by the monitoring process. We show that the engine can operate under experimentally realizable conditions with feedback delay and finite-efficiency measurements.

Entropy production↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Galactic Bar Resonances with Diffusion: An Analytic Model with Implications for Bar–Dark Matter Halo Dynamical Friction

Abstract The secular evolution of disk galaxies is largely driven by resonances between the orbits of “particles” (stars or dark matter) and the rotation of non-axisymmetric features (spiral arms or a bar). Such resonances may also explain kinematic and photometric features observed in the Milky Way and external galaxies. In simplified cases, these resonant interactions are well understood: for instance, the dynamics of a test particle trapped near a resonance of a steadily rotating bar is easily analyzed using the angle-action tools pioneered by Binney, Monari, and others. However, such treatments do not address the stochasticity and messiness inherent to real galaxies—effects that have, with few exceptions, been previously explored only with complex N -body simulations. In this paper, we propose a simple kinetic equation describing the distribution function of particles near an orbital resonance with a rigidly rotating bar, allowing for diffusion of the particles’ slow actions. We solve this equation for various values of the dimensionless diffusion strength Δ, and then apply our theory to the calculation of bar–halo dynamical friction. For Δ = 0, we recover the classic result of Tremaine and Weinberg that friction ultimately vanishes, owing to the phase mixing of resonant orbits. However, for Δ > 0, we find that diffusion suppresses phase mixing, leading to a finite torque. Our results suggest that stochasticity—be it physical or numerical—tends to increase bar–halo friction, and that bars in cosmological simulations might experience significant artificial slowdown, even if the numerical two-body relaxation time is much longer than a Hubble time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Asynchronous Reciprocal Coupling of Martini 2.2 Coarse-Grained and CHARMM36 All-Atom Simulations in an Automated Multiscale Framework

The appeal of multiscale modeling approaches is predicated on the promise of combinatorial synergy. However, this promise can only be realized when distinct scales are combined with reciprocal consistency. Here, we consider multiscale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations that combine the accuracy and macromolecular flexibility accessible to fixed-charge all-atom (AA) representations with the sampling speed accessible to reductive, coarse-grained (CG) representations. AA-to-CG conversions are relatively straightforward because deterministic routines with unique outcomes are achievable. Conversely, CG-to-AA conversions have many solutions due to a surge in the number of degrees of freedom. While automated tools for biomolecular CG-to-AA transformation exist, we find that one popular option, called Backward, is prone to stochastic failure and the AA models that it does generate frequently have compromised protein structure and incorrect stereochemistry. Although these shortcomings can likely be circumvented by human intervention in isolated instances, automated multiscale coupling requires reliable and robust scale conversion. In this work, we detail an extension to Multiscale Machine-learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI), including an improved CG-to-AA conversion tool called sinceCG. This tool is reliable (~98% weakly correlated repeat success rate), automatable (no unrecoverable hangs), and yields AA models that generally preserve protein secondary structure and maintain correct stereochemistry. We describe how the MuMMI framework identifies CG system configurations of interest, converts them to AA representations, and simulates them at the AA scale while on-the-fly analyses provide feedback to update CG parameters. Application to systems containing the peripheral membrane protein RAS and proximal components of RAF kinase on complex eight-component lipid bilayers with ~1.5 million atoms is discussed in the context of MuMMI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Tools for Molten Salt Reactor Dose Rate Calculations

This report discusses a preliminary assessment of the capabilities of current state-of-the-art stochastic codes Shift and MCNP6 to calculate the ex-core radiation dose rates for a simplified Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) model. The Monte Carlo code Shift has been under significant development in recent years at ORNL as part of the CASL program and is now supported by NEAMS. Originally, Shift was developed for LWR ex-core calculations but with dose rate and shielding calculations specifically requested by the NEAMS program’s MSR industry partners, the MSR Application Drivers team was tasked with assessing Shift for non-LWR applications. This was the first application of the Shift code for non-LWRs and the findings can be considered preliminary due to the activities occurring only over a 5-month period. Attractive features of Shift include massive parallelization and advanced automated variance reduction techniques such as CADIS and FW-CADIS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2022

Four decades ago, construction was just beginning on experimental turbines at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Today, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) facility is the centerpiece of the laboratory's Flatirons Campus, a world-class hub for renewable energy research. The nation's shift to 100% clean electricity by 2035 will require a mix of renewable energy sources and strategies - and together, wind and solar energy could account for 60% to 80% of that clean energy resource. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, NREL scientists, engineers, and analysts contributed to these visionary goals through their wind energy research. As wind innovations push into new areas, NREL continues to play a vital role in advancing technology and addressing deployment barriers in pursuit of more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. FY 2022 wind research and development explored the potential for dramatic growth in land-based systems, the launch of the nation's first commercial-scale offshore installations, and transmission infrastructure buildout. Land-based wind energy is one of the most cost-effective electricity supply options - but utility-scale deployment will require up to 10 times the current number of turbines. An NREL plan addressed this need to accelerate U.S. wind technology rollout at distributed and utility scales. Another project conducted by NREL and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) helps position the nation's first major offshore wind corridor for success. The WETO-funded Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study is evaluating options for balancing electricity supply and demand, while supporting resilience of the grid and marine industries. WETO, NREL, and other partners are working to enable the enormous supply chain and workforce changes the U.S. wind energy industry will need to meet net-zero-carbon-emissions targets. As part of a seminal series of DOE-funded supply chain studies, NREL analysts reported on the trade-offs involved in manufacturing large volumes of wind technologies, while addressing cost, workforce, and logistics issues. All of this research is supported by NREL's outstanding research teams, tools, data, and facilities. A WETO-funded international wind energy field campaign, the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), has brought together experts from NREL, PNNL, and Sandia National Laboratories to create the world's most comprehensive set of high-resolution data on wind energy atmospheric phenomenon. This study could lead to more accurate predictions of losses from turbine-to-turbine wake interactions, eventually helping wind plants capture more energy and operators save millions of dollars. In addition, NREL researchers developed testing, modeling, and analysis tools to improve the security of power grids by identifying wind power plant dynamic stability problems. A new Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS) protects golden eagles from turbine encounters by predicting flight paths. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2022 (between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022).

accomplishments↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mixed stochastic-deterministic time-dependent density functional theory: application to stopping power of warm dense carbon

Warm dense matter (WDM) describes an intermediate phase, between condensed matter and classical plasmas, found in natural and man-made systems. In a laboratory setting, WDM is often created dynamically. It is typically laser or pulse-power generated and can be difficult to characterize experimentally. Measuring the energy loss of high energy ions, caused by a WDM target, is both a promising diagnostic and of fundamental importance to inertial confinement fusion research. However, electron coupling, degeneracy, and quantum effects limit the accuracy of easily calculable kinetic models for stopping power, while high temperatures make the traditional tools of condensed matter, e.g. time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT), often intractable. In this study, we have developed a mixed stochastic-deterministic approach to TD-DFT which provides more efficient computation while maintaining the required precision for model discrimination. Recently, this approach showed significant improvement compared to models when compared to experimental energy loss measurements in WDM carbon. Here, we describe this approach and demonstrate its application to warm dense carbon stopping across a range of projectile velocities. We compare direct stopping-power calculation to approaches based on combining homogeneous electron gas response with bound electrons, with parameters extracted from our TD-DFT calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrusive approaches as a step towards accounting for stochasticity in wind turbine design

Current wind turbine design methods require tens of thousands of time-domain simulations and use different random seeds to account for the stochasticity of the environmental conditions. The account of stochasticity is nonintrusive because the sampling method calls a deterministic model multiple times without changing its underlying equations. In this work, we investigate and demonstrate using simple proof of concepts how intrusive approaches can be used to directly account for stochasticity in the equations representing a mechanical system. Our long term goal is to apply such methodology to the design of wind turbines without requiring an excessive number of simulations. Intrusive methods manipulate stochastic variables directly to provide the probability density functions (PDFs) of the states and outputs at any time as functions of the PDFs of the inputs. We illustrate how different methods can be used with a reduced-order model of a wind turbine with one degree of freedom and for linear and nonlinear models. We discuss how the methods can be extended and what it will take to apply them to a level of fidelity similar to current state-of-the-art wind turbine design tools.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic density functional theory combined with Langevin dynamics for warm dense matter

Here, this study overviews and extends a recently developed stochastic finite-temperature Kohn-Sham density functional theory to study warm dense matter using Langevin dynamics, specifically under periodic boundary conditions. The method's algorithmic complexity exhibits nearly linear scaling with system size and is inversely proportional to the temperature. Additionally, a linear-scaling stochastic approach is introduced to assess the Kubo-Greenwood conductivity, demonstrating exceptional stability for dc conductivity. Utilizing the developed tools, we investigate the equation of state, radial distribution, and electronic conductivity of hydrogen at a temperature of 30 000 K. As for the radial distribution functions, we reveal a transition of hydrogen from gaslike to liquidlike behavior as its density exceeds 4 g/cm 3 . As for the electronic conductivity as a function of the density, we identified a remarkable isosbestic point at frequencies around 7 eV, which may be an additional signature of a gas-liquid transition in hydrogen at 30 000 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation

Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

GSAS Tools

SAND2023-06684O GSAS Tools is a web application that manages user access to modeling and simulation tools and promotional material. This software, which is a spiking neural network (SNN) simulator, represents an SNN as a graph of stochastic differential equations and simulates the time-evolution of these equations. It has the capability of reading inputs from file and writing outputs to file, and generally supports experimentation, analysis, and algorithm development using SNNs. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Noel, Todd↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty of Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Making for Operations and Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant

This paper summarizes research that integrates condition monitoring and prognostics with decision making for nuclear power plant operations and maintenance. As part of this research, we have developed an online asset management tool to help reduce life-cycle maintenance and repair costs. Using the latest advancements in condition monitoring, supply chain analytics, and deep reinforcement learning, we have created a predictive maintenance tool that can optimize the maintenance and spare-part management of a repairable nuclear system. To demonstrate these methods, preliminary studies were conducted on a simple, representative maintenance system undergoing a stochastic degradation process that requires repairs or replacement to continue operation. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we were able to reduce maintenance spending by approximately 50% compared to optimized, time-based maintenance strategies. Not only does the decision maker reduce the average life-cycle costs, it also minimizes the chance of high cost scenarios, lowering the variance of the expected cost distributions, and reducing overall financial risk. Furthermore, this work also studies the ability of the decision maker to handle various levels of noise from observation uncertainty. By introducing uncertainty into the decision-making process, we have quantified the robustness and resiliency of the decision maker, as well as identified necessary levels of observability to demonstrate cost effectiveness.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗