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Examining the Role of Environment in a Comprehensive Sample of Compact Groups

Compact groups, with their high number densities, small velocity dispersions, and an interstellar medium that has not been fully processed, provide a local analog to conditions of galaxy interactions in the earlier universe. The frequent and prolonged gravitational encounters that occur in compact groups affect the evolution of the constituent galaxies in a myriad of ways, for example, gas processing and star formation. Recently, a statistically significant "gap" has been discovered in the mid-infrared (MIR: 3.6-8 μm) IRAC color space of compact group galaxies. This gap is not seen in field samples and is a new example of how the compact group environment may affect the evolution of member galaxies. In order to investigate the origin and nature of this gap, we have compiled a larger sample of 37 compact groups in addition to the original 12 groups studied by Johnson et al. (yielding 174 individual galaxies with reliable MIR photometry). We find that a statistically significant deficit of galaxies in this gap region of IRAC color space is persistent in the full sample, lending support to the hypothesis that the compact group environment inhibits moderate specific star formation rates. Using this expanded sample, we have more fully characterized the distribution of galaxies in this color space and quantified the low-density region more fully with respect to MIR bluer and MIR redder colors. We note a curvature in the color-space distribution, which is fully consistent with increasing dust temperature as the activity in a galaxy increases. This full sample of 49 compact groups allows us to subdivide the data according to physical properties of the groups. An analysis of these subsamples indicates that neither projected physical diameter nor density shows a trend in color space within the values represented by this sample. We hypothesize that the apparent lack of a trend is due to the relatively small range of properties in this sample, whose groups have already been pre-selected to be compact and dense. Thus, the relative influence of stochastic effects (such as the particular distribution and amount of star formation in individual galaxies) becomes dominant. We analyze spectral energy distributions of member galaxies as a function of their location in color space and find that galaxies in different regions of MIR color space contain dust with varying temperatures and/or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission.

Environment↗

An information theory approach for evaluating earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements - Nonuniform sampling of reflected shortwave radiation

An information theory approach to examine the temporal nonuniform sampling characteristics of shortwave (SW) flux for earth radiation budget (ERB) measurements is suggested. The information gain is computed by computing the information content before and after the measurements. A stochastic diurnal model for the SW flux is developed, and measurements for different orbital parameters are examined. The methodology is applied to specific NASA Polar platform and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) orbital parameters. The information theory approach, coupled with the developed SW diurnal model, is found to be promising for measurements involving nonuniform orbital sampling characteristics.

Barkstrom, Bruce R.↗

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗

Aircraft adaptive learning control

The optimal control theory of stochastic linear systems is discussed in terms of the advantages of distributed-control systems, and the control of randomly-sampled systems. An optimal solution to longitudinal control is derived and applied to the F-8 DFBW aircraft. A randomly-sampled linear process model with additive process and noise is developed.

Lee, P. S. T.↗

Probabilistic Classification Using Elemental Abundance Distributions and Lossless Image Compression in Apollo 17 Lunar Dust Samples from Mare Serenitatis

We have previously outlined a strategy for the detection of fossils [Storrie-Lombardi and Hoover, 2004] and extant microbial life [Storrie-Lombaudi and Hoover, 20051 during robotic missions to Mars using co-registered structural and chemical signatures. Data inputs included image lossless compression indices to estimate relative textural complexity and elemental abundance distributions. Two exploratory classification algorithms (principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis) provide an initial tentative classification of all targets. Nonlinear stochastic neural networks are then trained to produce a Bayesian estimate of algorithm classification accuracy. The strategy previously has been successful in distinguishing regions of biotic and abiotic alteration of basalt glass from unaltered samples. [Storrie-Lombardi and Fisk, 2004; Storrie-Lombardi and Fisk, 2004] Such investigations of abiotic versus biotic alteration of terrestrial mineralogy on Earth are compromised by .the difficulty finding mineralogy completely unaffected by the ubiquitous presence of microbial life on the planet. The renewed interest in lunar exploration offers an opportunity to investigate geological materials that may exhibit signs of aqueous alteration, but are highly unlikely to contain contaminating biological weathering signatures. We here present an extension of our earlier data set to include lunar dust samples obtained during the Apollo 17 mission. Apollo 17 landed in the Taurus-Littrow Valley in Mare Serenitatis. Most of the rock samples from this region of the lunar highlands are basalts comprised primarily of plagioclase and pyroxene and selected examples of orange and black volcanic glass. SEM images and elemental abundances (C6, N7, O8, Na11, Mg12, Al13, Si14, P15, S16, Cll7, K19, Ca20, Fe26) for a series of targets in the lunar dust samples are compared to the extant cyanobacteria, fossil trilobites, Orgueil meteorite, and terrestrial basalt targets previously discussed. The data set provides a first step in producing a quantitative probabilistic methodology for geobiological analysis of returned lunar samples or in situ exploration.

Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.↗

Investigation, development and application of optimal output feedback theory. Volume 2: Development of an optimal, limited state feedback outer-loop digital flight control system for 3-D terminal area operation

This report contains the development of a digital outer-loop three dimensional radio navigation (3-D RNAV) flight control system for a small commercial jet transport. The outer-loop control system is designed using optimal stochastic limited state feedback techniques. Options investigated using the optimal limited state feedback approach include integrated versus hierarchical control loop designs, 20 samples per second versus 5 samples per second outer-loop operation and alternative Type 1 integration command errors. Command generator tracking techniques used in the digital control design enable the jet transport to automatically track arbitrary curved flight paths generated by waypoints. The performance of the design is demonstrated using detailed nonlinear aircraft simulations in the terminal area, frequency domain multi-input sigma plots, frequency domain single-input Bode plots and closed-loop poles. The response of the system to a severe wind shear during a landing approach is also presented.

Broussard, J. R.↗

Stochastic estimation of coherent structures in turbulent boundary layers

The stochastic estimation technique is described as well as its extension to two-point and space-time conditional estimates. Based on the experimental data of Guezennec (1985), a comparison is made between the stochastic estimates and the conventional ensemble averaging results. As only the normal velocity and streamwise components were measured at each point on the sampling grid, the assumption of statistical symmetry in the spanwise direction about the centerline was used and the spanwise velocity component was reconstructed by integrating the continuity equation from the centerline outward.

Guezennec, Y. G.↗

Error analysis of image reconstruction by a synthetic aperture interferometric radiometer

An error analysis is presented for the image reconstruction algorithm currently employed by the electronically steered thinned array radiometer aircraft instrument. This instrument samples components of the Fourier transform of the brightness temperature distribution at 1.4 GHz. Sources of error are identified, including systematic offsets and stochastic noise in the measurements, errors in the interference pattern antenna calibration, multipath scattering from the antenna support structure, mutual coupling between nearby array elements, and variations in the antenna patterns of the array elements. These errors are shown to produce artifacts in the image which appear as 'streaks' running along the instrument flight line. Possible hardware corrections are discussed. These include a reduction in the profile of the antenna support structure and a decoupling of adjacent and other nearby array elements using corrugated 'skirts'. Also discussed are several image enhancement techniques which detect and correct for some of the streaking. These techniques include a renormalization of the interference patterns based on the measured element patterns, a perturbation based interpretation of image contrast, and a covariance analysis of noise present in the image.

Ruf, Christopher S.↗

Sizing and Topology Design of an Aeroelastic Wingbox Under Uncertainty

The goals of this work are to use a nested optimizer to conduct simultaneous sizing (inner level) and topology (outer level) design of a wingbox, considering uncertainties in the safety factors used to define the aeroelastic constraints. These uncertainties, propagated via sampling-driven polynomial chaos, are explicitly introduced at the inner level of the method, during gradient-based sizing optimization, resulting in a stochastic optimal sizing distribution. Measures of robustness in the total structural mass are then passed to the outer level, where a global optimizer evolves the topology parameters. The results demonstrate design choices needed to improve robustness in the face of uncertain safety factors, and the various physical mechanisms driving this process.

Stanford, Bret K.↗

Estimation and enhancement of real-time software reliability through mutation analysis

A simulation-based technique for obtaining numerical estimates of the reliability of N-version, real-time software is presented. An extended stochastic Petri net is employed to represent the synchronization structure of N versions of the software, where dependencies among versions are modeled through correlated sampling of module execution times. Test results utilizing specifications for NASA's planetary lander control software indicate that mutation-based testing could hold greater potential for enhancing reliability than the desirable but perhaps unachievable goal of independence among N versions.

Geist, Robert↗

Stochastic Mixing Model with Power Law Decay of Variance

Here we present a simple stochastic mixing model based on the law of large numbers (LLN). The reason why the LLN is involved in our formulation of the mixing problem is that the random conserved scalar c = c(t,x(t)) appears to behave as a sample mean. It converges to the mean value mu, while the variance sigma(sup 2)(sub c) (t) decays approximately as t(exp -1). Since the variance of the scalar decays faster than a sample mean (typically is greater than unity), we will introduce some non-linear modifications into the corresponding pdf-equation. The main idea is to develop a robust model which is independent from restrictive assumptions about the shape of the pdf. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we derive the integral equation from a stochastic difference equation describing the evolution of the pdf of a passive scalar in time. The stochastic difference equation introduces an exchange rate gamma(sub n) which we model in a first step as a deterministic function. In a second step, we generalize gamma(sub n) as a stochastic variable taking fluctuations in the inhomogeneous environment into account. In Section 3 we solve the non-linear integral equation numerically and analyze the influence of the different parameters on the decay rate. The paper finishes with a conclusion.

Fedotov, S.↗

Analysis of bilinear noise models in circuits and devices

There are a number of applications in which linear noise models are inappropriate. In the paper, the use of bilinear noise models in circuits and devices is considered. Several physical problems are studied in this framework. These include circuits involving varying parameters (such as variable resistance circuits constructed using field-effect transistors), the effect of switching jitter on sampled data system performance and communication systems involving voltage-controlled oscillators and phase-lock loops. In addition, several types of analytical techniques for stochastic bilinear systems are considered. Specifically, the moment equations of Brockett for bilinear systems driven by white noise are discussed, and closed-form expressions for certain bilinear systems (those that evolve an Abelian or solvable Lie groups) driven by white or colored noise are derived. In addition, an approximate statistical technique involving the use of harmonic expansions is described.

Willsky, A. S.↗

Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting

A 'lagged average forecast' (LAF) model is developed for stochastic dynamic weather forecasting and used for predictions in comparison with the results of a Monte Carlo forecast (MCF). The technique involves the calculation of sample statistics from an ensemble of forecasts, with each ensemble member being an ordinary dynamical forecast (ODF). Initial conditions at a time lagging the start of the forecast period are used, with varying amounts of time for the lags. Forcing by asymmetric Newtonian heating of the lower layer is used in a two-layer, f-plane, highly truncated spectral model in a test forecasting run. Both the LAF and MCF are found to be more accurate than the ODF due to ensemble averaging with the MCF and the LAF. When a regression filter is introduced, all models become more accurate, with the LAF model giving the best results. The possibility of generating monthly or seasonal forecasts with the LAF is discussed.

Hoffman, R. N.↗

Combined optimization of image-gathering and image-processing systems for scene feature detection

The relationship between the image gathering and image processing systems for minimum mean squared error estimation of scene characteristics is investigated. A stochastic optimization problem is formulated where the objective is to determine a spatial characteristic of the scene rather than a feature of the already blurred, sampled and noisy image data. An analytical solution for the optimal characteristic image processor is developed. The Wiener filter for the sampled image case is obtained as a special case, where the desired characteristic is scene restoration. Optimal edge detection is investigated using the Laplacian operator x G as the desired characteristic, where G is a two dimensional Gaussian distribution function. It is shown that the optimal edge detector compensates for the blurring introduced by the image gathering optics, and notably, that it is not circularly symmetric. The lack of circular symmetry is largely due to the geometric effects of the sampling lattice used in image acquisition. The optimal image gathering optical transfer function is also investigated and the results of a sensitivity analysis are shown.

Halyo, Nesim↗

Scale Dependence of Statistics of Spatially Averaged Rain Rate Seen in TOGA COARE Comparison with Predictions from a Stochastic Model

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they in general depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. As a part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite rain averages, a space-time model of rainfall statistics was developed to describe the statistics of gridded rain observed in GATE. The model allows one to compute the second moment statistics of space- and time-averaged rain rate which can be fitted to satellite or rain gauge data to determine the four model parameters appearing in the precipitation spectrum - an overall strength parameter, a characteristic length separating the long and short wavelength regimes and a characteristic relaxation time for decay of the autocorrelation of the instantaneous local rain rate and a certain 'fractal' power law exponent. For area-averaged instantaneous rain rate, this exponent governs the power law dependence of these statistics on the averaging length scale $L$ predicted by the model in the limit of small $L$. In particular, the variance of rain rate averaged over an $L \times L$ area exhibits a power law singularity as $L \rightarrow 0$. In the present work the model is used to investigate how the statistics of area-averaged rain rate over the tropical Western Pacific measured with ship borne radar during TOGA COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment) and gridded on a 2 km grid depends on the size of the spatial averaging scale. Good agreement is found between the data and predictions from the model over a wide range of averaging length scales.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

Analyzing Non Stationary Processes in Radiometers

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory for many scientific and engineering applications. Non linear effects of the observation methodology is one of the most perplexing aspects to modeling non stationary processes. This perplexing problem was encountered when modeling the effect of non stationary receiver fluctuations on the performance of radiometer calibration architectures. Existing modeling approaches were found not applicable; particularly problematic is modeling processes across scales over which they begin to exhibit non stationary behavior within the time interval of the calibration algorithm. Alternatively, the radiometer output is modeled as samples from a sequence random variables; the random variables are treated using a conditional probability distribution function conditioned on the use of the variable in the calibration algorithm. This approach of treating a process as a sequence of random variables with non stationary stochastic moments produce sensible predictions of temporal effects of calibration algorithms. To test these model predictions, an experiment using the Millimeter wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) was conducted. The MIR with its two black body calibration references was configured in a laboratory setting to observe a third ultra-stable reference (CryoTarget). The MIR was programmed to sequentially sample each of the three references in approximately a 1 second cycle. Data were collected over a six-hour interval. The sequence of reference measurements form an ensemble sample set comprised of a series of three reference measurements. Two references are required to estimate the receiver response. A third reference is used to estimate the uncertainty in the estimate. Typically, calibration algorithms are designed to suppress the non stationary effects of receiver fluctuations. By treating the data sequence as an ensemble collection, it is possible to apply temporal algorithms which exacerbate the non stationary effects. By varying the algorithm, information about the properties of the non stationary receiver fluctuations is obtained. Comparisons of analytical calculations and statistical analysis of data demonstrate impressive agreement.

Racette, Paul↗

Optimization Testbed Cometboards Extended into Stochastic Domain

COMparative Evaluation Testbed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for the Design of Structures (CometBoards) is a multidisciplinary design optimization software. It was originally developed for deterministic calculation. It has now been extended into the stochastic domain for structural design problems. For deterministic problems, CometBoards is introduced through its subproblem solution strategy as well as the approximation concept in optimization. In the stochastic domain, a design is formulated as a function of the risk or reliability. Optimum solution including the weight of a structure, is also obtained as a function of reliability. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponded to unity for reliability. Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a compromised reliability approaching zero. The stochastic design optimization (SDO) capability for an industrial problem was obtained by combining three codes: MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life airframe component made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

Combined optimization of image-gathering optics and image-processing algorithm for edge detection

This paper investigates the relationships between the image-gathering and image-processing systems for minimum mean-squared error estimation of scene characteristics. A stochastic optimization problem is formulated in which the objective is to determine a spatial characteristic of the scene rather than a feature of the already blurred, sampled, and noisy image data. The Wiener filter for the sampled image case is obtained as a special case, where the desired characteristics is scene restoration. Optimal edge detection is investigated. It is shown that the optimal edge detector compensates for the blurring introduced by the image-gathering optics, and, notably, that it is not circularly symmetric. The lack of circular symmetry is largely due to the geometric effects of the sampling lattice used in image acquisition.

Halyo, N.↗