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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. Additionally, we illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. DMMs using deep neural networks to parametrize the transition of Markov probability distributions have recently been shown to provide more expressiveness in modeling sequential data and dynamical system responses. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a rigorous analytical method to prove the necessary and sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. This task is achieved by spectral analysis of the efficiently computed Jacobians of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make theoretical connections between the eigenvalues of neural network's weights and the different activation function types used on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results on stochastic stability and eigenvalue spectra via several numerical experiments. Formal stability guarantees of DMMs can substantially improve their robustness and trustworthiness, necessary for reliable use in safety-critical real-world applications.

Drgona, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning unifies flexibility and efficiency of spinodal structure generation for stochastic biomaterial design

Abstract Porous biomaterials design for bone repair is still largely limited to regular structures (e.g. rod-based lattices), due to their easy parameterization and high controllability. The capability of designing stochastic structure can redefine the boundary of our explorable structure–property space for synthesizing next-generation biomaterials. We hereby propose a convolutional neural network (CNN) approach for efficient generation and design of spinodal structure—an intriguing structure with stochastic yet interconnected, smooth, and constant pore channel conducive to bio-transport. Our CNN-based approach simultaneously possesses the tremendous flexibility of physics-based model in generating various spinodal structures (e.g. periodic, anisotropic, gradient, and arbitrarily large ones) and comparable computational efficiency to mathematical approximation model. We thus successfully design spinodal bone structures with target anisotropic elasticity via high-throughput screening, and directly generate large spinodal orthopedic implants with desired gradient porosity. This work significantly advances stochastic biomaterials development by offering an optimal solution to spinodal structure generation and design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plateau Phenomenon in Gradient Descent Training of RELU Networks: Explanation, Quantification, and Avoidance

The ability of neural networks to provide ‘best in class’ approximation across a wide range of applications is well-documented. Nevertheless, the powerful expressivity of neural networks comes to naught if one is unable to effectively train (choose) the parameters defining the network. In general, neural networks are trained by gradient descent type optimization methods,a stochastic variant thereof. In practice, such methods result in the loss function decreases rapidly at the beginning of training but then, after a relatively small number of steps, significantly slow down. The loss may even appear to stagnate over the period of a large number of epochs, only to then suddenly start to decrease fast again for no apparent reason. This so-called plateau phenomenon manifests itself in many learning tasks. The present work aims to identify and quantify the root causes of plateau phenomenon.analysis is carried out in the setting of univariate ReLU networks. No assumptions are made on the number of neurons relative to the number of training data, and our results hold for both the lazy and adaptive regimes. Here, the main findings are: plateaux correspond to periods during which activation patterns remain constant, where activation pattern refers to the number of data points that activate a given neuron; quantification of convergence of the gradient flow dynamics; and, characterization stationary points in terms solutions of local least squares regression lines over subsets of the training data. Based on these conclusions, we propose a new iterative training method, the Active Neuron Least Squares (ANLS), characterised by the explicit adjustment of the activation pattern at each step, which is designed to enable a quick exit from a plateau. Illustrative numerical examples are included throughout.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In situ Parallel Training of Analog Neural Network Using Electrochemical Random-Access Memory

In-memory computing based on non-volatile resistive memory can significantly improve the energy efficiency of artificial neural networks. However, accurate in situ training has been challenging due to the nonlinear and stochastic switching of the resistive memory elements. One promising analog memory is the electrochemical random-access memory (ECRAM), also known as the redox transistor. Its low write currents and linear switching properties across hundreds of analog states enable accurate and massively parallel updates of a full crossbar array, which yield rapid and energy-efficient training. While simulations predict that ECRAM based neural networks achieve high training accuracy at significantly higher energy efficiency than digital implementations, these predictions have not been experimentally achieved. In this work, we train a 3 × 3 array of ECRAM devices that learns to discriminate several elementary logic gates (AND, OR, NAND). We record the evolution of the network’s synaptic weights during parallel in situ (on-line) training, with outer product updates. Due to linear and reproducible device switching characteristics, our crossbar simulations not only accurately simulate the epochs to convergence, but also quantitatively capture the evolution of weights in individual devices. The implementation of the first in situ parallel training together with strong agreement with simulation results provides a significant advance toward developing ECRAM into larger crossbar arrays for artificial neural network accelerators, which could enable orders of magnitude improvements in energy efficiency of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introduction: Neuromorphic Materials

The explosive growth in data collection and the need to process it efficiently, as well as the desire to automate increasingly complex tasks in transportation, medical care, manufacturing, security and many other fields have motivated a growing interest in neuromorphic computing. Unlike the binary, transistorbased ON/OFF logic gates and separate logic and memory functionalities employed in digital computing, neuromorphic computing is inspired by animal brains that use interconnected synapses and neurons to perform processing, storage and transmission of information at the same location, while only consuming ~20 W or less of power. Motivated by the brain’s efficiency, adaptability, self-learning and resiliency qualities, neuromorphic computing can be broadly defined as an approach to processing and storing information using hardware and algorithms inspired by models of biological neural systems. Present research in neuromorphic computing encompasses approaches that vary significantly in their degree of neuro-inspiration, from systems that only incorporate features such as asynchronous, event-driven operation or use crossbar arrays of non-volatile memory (NVM) elements to accelerate deep neural networks (DNNs), to designs that embrace the extreme parallelism, sparsity, reconfigurability, adaptability, complexity and stochasticity observed in nervous systems. The term ‘neuromorphic’ computing is often credited to Carver Mead, who in the 1980s investigated Si-based analog electronics to replicate functions of the animal retina. Earlier important advances in this field include the work of Frank Rosenblatt, who proposed the concept of the perceptron, Bernard Widrow, who used this concept to build one of the first analog neural networks, the Adaline and many other researchers (see ref. 6 for an historical perspective on neuromorphic computing). With the recent increase in the use of artificial intelligence and large language models, and rising concerns over the associated energy costs, interest in neuromorphic hardware has expanded rapidly. According to some estimates, driven largely by the drastic growth in the training use of artificial intelligence (AI) models using the current computing architectures, the energy cost of computing is projected to reach the energy supply worldwide by 2045. Furthermore, while this is not a realistic outcome, it means that, if more efficient computing technologies are not developed -- soon -- the world will soon become one where demand for energy and market constraints limit the continued increase of societal access to AI and cloud services from data centers. Data centers used for training and use of these models consume hundreds of terawatt hours of electricity, already past 4% of the US electricity demand.

Circuits↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate modeling of Monte Carlo radiation transport with convolutional neural networks for shielding optimization

Here, we present a machine learning (ML)-based surrogate model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) designed to emulate the attenuation of neutron fields as they pass through various shielding materials. This model can compute the outgoing neutron flux almost instantaneously and achieves reasonable accuracy compared to traditional Monte Carlo (MC)-based codes, which are computationally intensive. This emulator alleviates the complexity of neutron radiation transport through shielding materials by reducing the dimensionality and enables shielding optimization for a known radiation environment. This optimization process, which would have taken an unrealistic timeline due to several complex radiation transport simulations, can now be achieved in minutes, thus increasing computational capabilities in radiation shielding assessment. We demonstrate the applications of this emulator in computing effective dose rates and optimizing shielding solutions for a heavy-ion accelerator facility, such as the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where secondary neutrons produced via beam interactions dominate the radiation environment.

accelerator shielding↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning-assisted high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage optimization

High-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (HT-RTES) has the potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of the net-zero carbon economy, given its capability to balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to co-optimize the performance metrics of HT-RTES by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Further, neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

GSAS Tools

SAND2023-06684O GSAS Tools is a web application that manages user access to modeling and simulation tools and promotional material. This software, which is a spiking neural network (SNN) simulator, represents an SNN as a graph of stochastic differential equations and simulates the time-evolution of these equations. It has the capability of reading inputs from file and writing outputs to file, and generally supports experimentation, analysis, and algorithm development using SNNs. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Noel, Todd↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diffusion-Model-Assisted Supervised Learning of Generative Models for Density Estimation

Here, we present a supervised learning framework of training generative models for density estimation. Generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, and variational auto-encoders (VAEs), are usually considered as unsupervised learning models, because labeled data are usually unavailable for training. Despite the success of the generative models, there are several issues with the unsupervised training, e.g., requirement of reversible architectures, vanishing gradients, and training instability. To enable supervised learning in generative models, we utilize the score-based diffusion model to generate labeled data. Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to learn the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation method. This approach uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimators to directly approximate the score function at any spatial-temporal location in solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE), corresponding to the reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE). This approach can offer both high accuracy and substantial time savings in neural network training. Once the labeled data are generated, we can train a simple, fully connected neural network to learn the generative model in the supervised manner. Compared with existing normalizing flow models, our method does not require the use of reversible neural networks and avoids the computation of the Jacobian matrix. Compared with existing diffusion models, our method does not need to solve the reverse-time SDE to generate new samples. As a result, the sampling efficiency is significantly improved. We demonstrate the performance of our method by applying it to a set of 2D datasets as well as real data from the University of California Irvine (UCI) repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical reconstruction of 3D well-connected porous media from 2D exemplars using statistics-informed neural network

The relationships between porous microstructures and transport properties are of fundamental importance in various scientific and engineering applications. Due to the intricacy, stochasticity and heterogeneity of porous media, reliable characterization and modeling of transport properties often require a complete dataset of internal microstructure samples. However, it is often an unbearable cost to acquire sufficient 3D digital microstructures by purely using microscopic imaging systems. Herein this paper presents a machine learning-based technique to hierarchically reconstruct 3D well-connected porous microstructures from one isotropic or several anisotropic low-cost 2D exemplar(s). To compactly characterize the large-scale microstructural features, a Gaussian image pyramid is built for each 2D exemplar. Local morphology patterns are collected from the Gaussian image pyramids, and then they serve as the training data to embed the 2D morphological statistics into feed-forward neural networks at multiple length levels. By using a specially-developed morphology integration scheme, the 3D morphological statistics at different levels can be inferred from the statistics-informed neural networks. Gibbs sampling is adopted to hierarchically reconstruct 3D microstructures by using multi-level 3D morphological statistics, where the large-scale, regional and local morphological patterns are statistically generated and successively added to the same 3D random field. The proposed method is tested on a series of porous media with distinct morphologies, and the statistical equivalence between the reconstructed and the real microstructures is systematically evaluated by comparing morphological descriptors and transport properties. The results demonstrate that the proposed 2D-to-3D microstructure reconstruction method is a universal and efficient approach to generating morphologically and physically realistic samples of porous media.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fed-DeepONet: Stochastic Gradient-Based Federated Training of Deep Operator Networks

The Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) framework is a different class of neural network architecture that one trains to learn nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Traditionally, DeepONets are trained using a centralized strategy that requires transferring the training data to a centralized location. Such a strategy, however, limits our ability to secure data privacy or use high-performance distributed/parallel computing platforms. To alleviate such limitations, in this paper, we study the federated training of DeepONets for the first time. That is, we develop a framework, which we refer to as Fed-DeepONet, that allows multiple clients to train DeepONets collaboratively under the coordination of a centralized server. To achieve Fed-DeepONets, we propose an efficient stochastic gradient-based algorithm that enables the distributed optimization of the DeepONet parameters by averaging first-order estimates of the DeepONet loss gradient. Then, to accelerate the training convergence of Fed-DeepONets, we propose a moment-enhanced (i.e., adaptive) stochastic gradient-based strategy. Finally, we verify the performance of Fed-DeepONet by learning, for different configurations of the number of clients and fractions of available clients, (i) the solution operator of a gravity pendulum and (ii) the dynamic response of a parametric library of pendulums.

Moya, Christian↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary reinforcement learning of dynamical large deviations

In this work, we show how to bound and calculate the likelihood of dynamical large deviations using evolutionary reinforcement learning. An agent, a stochastic model, propagates a continuous-time Monte Carlo trajectory and receives a reward conditioned upon the values of certain path-extensive quantities. Evolution produces progressively fitter agents, potentially allowing the calculation of a piece of a large-deviation rate function for a particular model and path-extensive quantity. For models with small state spaces, the evolutionary process acts directly on rates, and for models with large state spaces, the process acts on the weights of a neural network that parameterizes the model's rates. This approach shows how path-extensive physics problems can be considered within a framework widely used in machine learning.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implicit learning of convective organization explains precipitation stochasticity

Accurate prediction of precipitation intensity is crucial for both human and natural systems, especially in a warming climate more prone to extreme precipitation. Yet, climate models fail to accurately predict precipitation intensity, particularly extremes. One missing piece of information in traditional climate model parameterizations is subgrid-scale cloud structure and organization, which affects precipitation intensity and stochasticity at coarse resolution. Here, using global storm-resolving simulations and machine learning, we show that, by implicitly learning subgrid organization, we can accurately predict precipitation variability and stochasticity with a low-dimensional set of latent variables. Using a neural network to parameterize coarse-grained precipitation, we find that the overall behavior of precipitation is reasonably predictable using large-scale quantities only; however, the neural network cannot predict the variability of precipitation (R 2 ~ 0.45) and underestimates precipitation extremes. The performance is significantly improved when the network is informed by our organization metric, correctly predicting precipitation extremes and spatial variability (R 2 ~ 0.9). The organization metric is implicitly learned by training the algorithm on a high-resolution precipitable water field, encoding the degree of subgrid organization. The organization metric shows large hysteresis, emphasizing the role of memory created by subgrid-scale structures. We demonstrate that this organization metric can be predicted as a simple memory process from information available at the previous time steps. These findings stress the role of organization and memory in accurate prediction of precipitation intensity and extremes and the necessity of parameterizing subgrid-scale convective organization in climate models to better project future changes of water cycle and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗