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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Instability and turbulent relaxation in a stochastic magnetic field

An analysis of instability dynamics in a stochastic magnetic field is presented for the tractable case of the resistive interchange. Externally prescribed static magnetic perturbations convert the eigenmode problem to a stochastic differential equation, which is solved by the method of averaging. The dynamics are rendered multi-scale, due to the size disparity between the test mode and magnetic perturbations. Maintaining quasi-neutrality at all orders requires that small-scale convective cell turbulence be driven by disparate scale interaction. Here, the cells in turn produce turbulent mixing of vorticity and pressure, which is calculated by fluctuation-dissipation type analyses, and are relevant to pump-out phenomena. The development of correlation between the ambient magnetic perturbations and the cells is demonstrated, showing that turbulence will 'lock on' to ambient stochasticity. Magnetic perturbations are shown to produce a magnetic braking effect on vorticity generation at large scale. Detailed testable predictions are presented. The relations of these findings to the results of available simulations and recent experiments are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian sparse learning with preconditioned stochastic gradient MCMC and its applications

Deep neural networks have been successfully employed in an extensive variety of research areas, including solving partial differential equations. Despite its significant success, there are some challenges in effectively training DNN, such as avoiding overfitting in over-parameterized DNNs and accelerating the optimization in DNNs with pathological curvature. Here, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in nonconvex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in the preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the present work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic equation of motion approach to fermionic dissipative dynamics. I. Formalism

In this work, we establish formally exact stochastic equation of motion (SEOM) theory to describe the dissipative dynamics of fermionic open systems. The construction of the SEOM is based on a stochastic decoupling of the dissipative interaction between the system and fermionic environment, and the influence of environmental fluctuations on the reduced system dynamics is characterized by stochastic Grassmann fields. Meanwhile, numerical realization of the time-dependent Grassmann fields has remained a long-standing challenge. To solve this problem, we propose a minimal auxiliary space (MAS) mapping scheme with which the stochastic Grassmann fields are represented by conventional c-number fields along with a set of pseudo-levels. This eventually leads to a numerically feasible MAS-SEOM method. The important properties of the MAS-SEOM are analyzed by making connection to the well-established time-dependent perturbation theory and the hierarchical equations of motion theory. The MAS-SEOM method provides a potentially promising approach for the accurate and efficient simulation of fermionic open systems at ultra-low temperatures.

Han, Lu (ORCID:0000000339002225)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generation of Tunable Stochastic Sequences Using the Insulator–Metal Transition

Probabilistic computing is a paradigm in which data are not represented by stable bits, but rather by the probability of a metastable bit to be in a particular state. The development of this technology has been hindered by the availability of hardware capable of generating stochastic and tunable sequences of “1s” and “0s”. The options are currently limited to complex CMOS circuitry and, recently, magnetic tunnel junctions. Here, we demonstrate that metal–insulator transitions can also be used for this purpose. We use an electrical pump/probe protocol and take advantage of the stochastic relaxation dynamics in VO 2 to induce random metallization events. A simple latch circuit converts the metallization sequence into a random stream of 1s and 0s. The resetting pulse in between probes decorrelates successive events, providing a true stochastic digital sequence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗
DOE OSTI2022

Propagating Parameter Uncertainty in Power System Nonlinear Dynamic Simulations Using a Koopman Operator-Based Surrogate Model

In this work, we propose a Koopman operator-based surrogate model for propagating parameter uncertainties in power system nonlinear dynamic simulations. First, we augment a priori known state-space model by reformulating parameters deemed uncertain as pseudo-state variables. Then, we apply the Koopman operator theory to the resulting state-space model and obtain a linear dynamical system model. This transformation allows us to analyze the evolution of the system dynamics through its Koopman eigenfunctions, eigenvalues, and modes. Of particular importance for this letter, the obtained linear dynamical system is a surrogate that enables the evaluation of parameter uncertainties by simply perturbing the initial conditions of the Koopman eigenfunctions associated with the pseudo-state variables. Simulations carried out on the New England test system reveal the excellent performance of the proposed method in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Period Active Distribution Network Planning Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming and Nested Decomposition by SDDIP

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2023

MLMOD: Machine Learning Methods for Data-Driven Modeling in LAMMPS

MLMOD is a software package for incorporating machine learning approaches and models into simulations of microscale mechanics and molecular dynamics in LAMMPS. Recent machine learning approaches provide promising data-driven approaches for learning representations for system behaviors from experimental data and high fidelity simulations. The package facilitates learning and using data-driven models for (i) dynamics of the system at larger spatial-temporal scales (ii) interactions between system components, (iii) features yielding coarser degrees of freedom, and (iv) features for new quantities of interest characterizing system behaviors. MLMOD provides hooks in LAMMPS for (i) modeling dynamics and time-step integration, (ii) modeling interactions, and (iii) computing quantities of interest characterizing system states. The package allows for use of machine learning methods with general model classes including Neural Networks, Gaussian Process Regression, Kernel Models, and other approaches. Here we discuss our prototype C++/Python package, aims, and example usage. For related papers, examples, updates, and additional information see https://github.com/atzberg/mlmod and http://atzberger.org/.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of coupled thermoacoustic modes: Noise and frequency spacing effects

Practical combustion systems consist of multiple thermoacoustic modes that are linearly stable or unstable at a wide range of frequencies. When coupled, the modal interactions are a strong function of the frequency spacing between them – having very significant implications on interpretation of linear stability or instability of modes from experimental data. Frequency spacing between the modes particularly influences the stability and existence of potential limit cycle solutions. In this paper, we extend earlier deterministic studies to include the effects of noise, studying how deterministic dynamics change with the addition of noise and the simultaneous impact of frequency spacing (i.e., closely, or widely spaced). Specifically, this paper characterizes three key effects of noise, which are (1) distribution of limit cycle amplitudes (“diffusion”), (2) shift in the average limit cycle amplitudes (“noise induced drift”), and (3) introduction of new bifurcations that are not present in the deterministic system. Key conclusions from this work are that in highly noisy practical environments, a deterministic/ low noise analysis will not be sufficient to explain even critical qualitative features of the system – such as existence of stable limit cycles or their amplitudes. Furthermore, the nature of noise-induced effects on nonlinear modal interactions can be fundamentally different for degenerate, closely spaced, and widely spaced modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

N-particle irreducible actions for stochastic fluids

We construct one- and two-particle irreducible (1PI and 2PI) effective actions for the stochastic fluid dynamics of a conserved density undergoing diffusive motion. We compute the 1PI action in one-loop order and the 2PI action in two-loop approximation. We derive a set of Schwinger-Dyson equations and regularize the resulting equations using Pauli-Villars fields. We numerically solve the Schwinger-Dyson equations for a non-critical fluid. We find that higher-loop effects summed by the Schwinger-Dyson renormalize the non-linear coupling. We also find indications of a diffuson-cascade, the appearance of n-loop correction with smaller and smaller exponential suppression.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generating realistic building electrical load profiles through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)

Building electrical load profiles can improve understanding of building energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and building-grid interactions. Current approaches to generating load profiles are time-consuming and not capable of reflecting the dynamic and stochastic behaviors of real buildings; some approaches also trigger data privacy concerns. In this study, we proposed a novel approach for generating realistic electrical load profiles of buildings through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), a machine learning technique that is capable of revealing an unknown probability distribution purely from data. The proposed approach has three main steps: (1) normalizing the daily 24-hour load profiles, (2) clustering the daily load profiles with the k-means algorithm, and (3) using GAN to generate daily load profiles for each cluster. The approach was tested with an open-source database – the Building Data Genome Project. We validated the proposed method by comparing the mean, standard deviation, and distribution of key parameters of the generated load profiles with those of the real ones. The KL divergence of the generated and real load profiles are within 0.3 for majority of parameters and clusters. Additionally, results showed the load profiles generated by GAN can capture not only the general trend but also the random variations of the actual electrical loads in buildings. We report the proposed GAN approach can be used to generate building electrical load profiles, verify other load profile generation models, detect changes to load profiles, and more importantly, anonymize smart meter data for sharing, to support research and applications of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time irreversibility as an indicator of approaching tipping points in Earth subsystems

With shifting environmental trends, many Earth system elements may be poised to undergo critical transitions or ‘tipping’. Reliable anticipation of these tipping elements is vital to inform policy decisions. Many of the current methods for tipping point detection are based on loss of resilience or ‘critical slowdown’ of the system as it approaches a tipping point. However, these methods are prone to false alarms; the detected slowdown may be an artifact of nonstationary noise unrelated to tipping behavior. Here, we explore the efficacy of early warning signs based on a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework. The model-free detection method relies on the increased intrinsic time-irreversibility due to detailed balance breaking, preceding the onset of tipping or instabilities. We demonstrate that these EWSs are effective for tipping point detection and robust against false alarms due to nonstationary noise, using idealized models for two key elements of the Earth system that are prone to tipping: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Arctic sea-ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vehicle to Grid Frequency Regulation Capacity Optimal Scheduling for Battery Swapping Station Using Deep Q-Network

Battery swapping stations (BSSs) are ideal candidates for fast frequency regulation services (FFRS) due to their large battery stock capacity. In addition, BSSs can precharge batteries for customers and the batteries that are not in charging can provide a stable regulation capacity to the market. However, uncertainties, such as ACE signals and the EV per-hour visit counts, introduce stochastic nonlinear dynamics into the operation of a BSS-based FFRS. Currently, there is no quantification method to ensure its optimal economical operation. To close this gap, in this article, we propose a novel deep Q-learning-based FFRS capacity dynamic scheduling strategy. This method can autonomously schedule the hourly regulation capacity in real time to maximize the BSSx0027;s revenue for providing FFRS. Case studies using real-world data verify the efficacy of the proposed work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exponential Decay of Sensitivity in Graph-Structured Nonlinear Programs

We study solution sensitivity for nonlinear programs (NLPs) whose structures are induced by graphs. These NLPs arise in many applications such as dynamic optimization, stochastic optimization, optimization with partial differential equations, and network optimization. We illustrate that for a given pair of nodes, the sensitivity of the primal-dual solution at one node against a data perturbation at the other node decays exponentially with respect to the distance between these two nodes on the graph. In other words, the solution sensitivity decays as one moves away from the perturbation point. This result, which we call exponential decay of sensitivity, holds under the strong second-order sufficiency condition and the linear independence constraint qualification. We also present conditions under which the decay rate remains uniformly bounded; this allows us to characterize the sensitivity behavior of NLPs defined over subgraphs of infinite graphs. The theoretical developments are illustrated with numerical examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗