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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Reevaluating Contour Visualizations for Power Systems Data

Effective visual analytics tools are needed now more than ever as emerging energy systems data and models are rapidly growing in scale and complexity. Here we examined the suitability of colored contour maps to visually represent bus values in two different power system models: a dense 24k-bus distribution system and a 240-bus transmission system. In a quantitative analysis, we found that contour maps misrepresent power systems data, changing the statistical dispersion of the bus values, including the loss of extreme values. In a controlled empirical study with thirty professional power system research engineers, we found that these distortions significantly impact excursion identification tasks. Additionally, the engineers were less confident in their assessments using contour-based visualizations than glyph-based visualizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

mystic : software for autonomous discovery and design under uncertainty

Throughout the diverse range of science and engineering applications, there is a growing desire to develop computational methods that can reliably predict the behavior of complex systems. Specifically, there is a strategic need for tools that can robustly forecast the behavior of complex physical systems, where data may be high-dimensional, noisy, or sparse, and models of the system may be time-dependent or include uncertainty. We use mystic to build tools that leverage statistical learning, physics-informed learning, and active learning in the efficient generation of reliably predictive surrogates for complex physical systems. mystic is a robust, proven, open-source optimization and uncertainty quantification toolkit with over a decade of use in the design and optimization of neutron instrumentation, solar-powered drones, and gasguns, and in iterative tuning of models for Raman spectroscopy and elastoplastic materials strength. Recent developments have focused on automated learning of statistically robust surrogates under uncertainty, with applications in materials in extreme environments, nanostructures, materials simulations and strength models, and the failure of shielding under particle radiation. In 2020, McKerns demonstrated active learning of optimally robust surrogates with respect to new simulated data for molecular dynamics simulations of materials mixing in warm dense matter, and is currently applying active learning to the automated steering of particle accelerator beams and the optimal design and control of quantum optical sensor instrumentation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated effects of sample size and grain neighborhood on the modeling of extreme value fatigue response

Assessing the size of representative volume elements (RVEs) for fatigue-related applications is challenging. A RVE relevant to random microstructure requires a volume of material that is sufficiently large to capture the grain/phase heterogeneity that captures all statistical moments of the distribution of the driving force for fatigue crack formation at “hot spot” grains. Consequently, the large size of a microstructure RVE required to study fatigue phenomena is largely computationally intractable and difficult to explore. A more realistic objective in this work is to systematically study, as a function of the size of a statistical sample of microstructure, trends towards convergence of the simulated distribution of driving force for fatigue crack formation. Our present work accordingly leverages the recently developed open-source PRISMS-Fatigue framework to examine the trends in convergence of extreme value distributions (EVD) of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs) in progressively larger polycrystalline microstructure realizations of FCC Al alloy 7075-T6 using crystal plasticity finite element method simulations. The results are compared to the traditional method in which ensembles of statistical volume elements (SVEs) are simulated to build up statistics intended to approximate those associated with a larger volume of material. The convergence of EVDs with increase of size of a SVE of microstructure is closely related to the extent of grain nearest neighbor (NN) interactions. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the local micromechanical response at hot spot grains is quantitatively investigated by systematically varying the orientations of NN grains. Results indicate that SVEs with cubic crystallographic texture tend towards convergence of the EVD of FIPs with tens of thousands of grains while the random and rolled textures require larger volumes. Simple relationships based on microstructure parameters (e.g., Schmid Factor, grain size, NN misorientation) do not completely correlate to fatigue hot spot grains. Finally, the sensitivity of the extreme value fatigue response at hot spot grains extends to the 3rd NN when a single neighborhood grain orientation is altered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular fluctuations inhibit intermittency in compressible turbulence

In the standard picture of fully developed turbulence, highly intermittent hydrodynamic fields are nonlinearly coupled across scales, where local energy cascades from large scales into dissipative vortices and large density gradients. Microscopically, however, constituent fluid molecules are in constant thermal (Brownian) motion, but the role of molecular fluctuations in large-scale turbulence is largely unknown, and with rare exceptions, it has historically been considered irrelevant at scales larger than the molecular mean free path. Recent theoretical and computational investigations have shown that molecular fluctuations can impact energy cascade at Kolmogorov length scales. Here, we show that molecular fluctuations not only modify energy spectrum at wavelengths larger than the Kolmogorov length in compressible turbulence, but also significantly inhibit spatio-temporal intermittency across the entire dissipation range. Using large-scale direct numerical simulations of computational fluctuating hydrodynamics, we demonstrate that the extreme intermittency characteristic of turbulence models is replaced by nearly Gaussian statistics in the dissipation range. These results demonstrate that the compressible Navier–Stokes equations should be augmented with molecular fluctuations to accurately predict turbulence statistics across the dissipation range. Our findings have significant consequences for turbulence modelling in applications such as astrophysics, reactive flows and hypersonic aerodynamics, where dissipation-range turbulence is approximated by closure models.

compressible turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Noise from undetected sources in Dark Energy Survey images

ABSTRACT For ground-based optical imaging with current CCD technology, the Poisson fluctuations in source and sky background photon arrivals dominate the noise budget and are readily estimated. Another component of noise, however, is the signal from the undetected population of stars and galaxies. Using injection of artifical galaxies into images, we demonstrate that the measured variance of galaxy moments (used for weak gravitational lensing measurements) in Dark Energy Survey (DES) images is significantly in excess of the Poisson predictions, by up to 30 per cent, and that the background sky levels are overestimated by current software. By cross-correlating distinct images of ‘empty’ sky regions, we establish that there is a significant image noise contribution from undetected static sources (US), which, on average, are mildly resolved at DES resolution. Treating these US as a stationary noise source, we compute a correction to the moment covariance matrix expected from Poisson noise. The corrected covariance matrix matches the moment variances measured on the injected DES images to within 5 per cent. Thus, we have an empirical method to statistically account for US in weak lensing measurements, rather than requiring extremely deep sky simulations. We also find that local sky determinations can remove most of the bias in flux measurements, at a small penalty in additional, but quantifiable, noise.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging

Emitted smoke composition is determined by properties of the biomass burning source and ambient ecosystem. However, conditions that mediate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation, as well as the spatial and temporal factors that drive particle evolution, are not understood adequately for many climate and air-quality related modeling applications. In situ observations provide considerable detail about aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, although sampling is extremely limited. Satellites offer the frequent global coverage that would allow for statistical characterization of emitted and evolved smoke, but generally lack microphysical detail. However, once properly validated, data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument can create at least a partial picture of smoke particle properties and plume evolution. We use in situ data from the Department of Energy’s Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of smoke particle retrieval results from the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) retrieval algorithm. We then use MISR to characterize wildfire smoke particle properties and to identify the relevant aging factors in several cases, to the extent possible. The RA successfully maps qualitative changes in effective particle size, light absorption, and its spectral dependence, when compared to in situ observations. By observing the entire plume uniformly, the satellite data can be interpreted in terms of smoke plume evolution, including size-selective deposition, new-particle formation, and locations within the plume where BC or BrC dominates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme Precipitation Over the Southern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

The southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (SSTP) is one of the rainiest regions in the world where geological hazards caused by extreme precipitation often occur. This study investigates the characteristics and mechanisms of extreme precipitation over SSTP from June to September during 2001–2020 using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observation. The extreme precipitation days are defined as the days with top 5% of regional-mean daily precipitation over SSTP in this period, which has an average precipitation of 27.2 mm/d. Averaging over the extreme precipitation days, precipitation peaks at an altitude of about 300 m, coinciding with the climatological maximum precipitation, but with a much larger value of 37.2 mm/d than the climatology of 11.9 mm/d. Composite analysis of circulations on extreme days reveals significant circulation anomalies in both the lower and upper troposphere. Specifically, the lower-tropospheric circulations are characterized by significant westerly anomalies over northern India, and the upper-tropospheric circulations are characterized by northerly anomalies over the central Tibetan Plateau, which are statistically independent. The lower-tropospheric westerly anomalies blowing toward SSTP are blocked by the topography, favoring extreme precipitation over SSTP. The upper-tropospheric northerly anomalies, on the other hand, correspond to anomalous northeasterlies north of SSTP in the middle troposphere and southeasterlies to the south in the lower troposphere, and the convergence of these circulation anomalies favors extreme precipitation over SSTP. Lastly, the lower-tropospheric westerly and upper-tropospheric northerly anomalies, respectively, correspond to less precipitation over the South Asian monsoon region and the Tibetan Plateau.

Extreme precipitation, Tibetan Plateau↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dichotomy of Wet and Dry Trends Over India by Aerosol Indirect Effects in CMIP5 Models

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions, also known as aerosol indirect effect (AIE), substantially impact rainfall frequency and intensity. Here, we analyze NEX‐GDDP, a multimodel ensemble of high‐resolution (0.25°) historical simulations and future projections statistically downscaled from 21 CMIP5 models, to quantify the importance of AIE on extreme climate indices, specifically consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The 21 NEX‐GDDP CMIP5 models are classified into models with reliable (REM) and unreliable (UREM) monsoon climate simulated over India based on their simulations of the climate indices. The REM group is further decomposed based on whether the models represent only the direct (REM ADE ) or the direct and indirect (REM ALL ) aerosol effects. Compared to REM ADE , including all aerosol effects significantly improves the model skills in simulating the observed historical trends of all three climate indices over India. Specifically, AIE enhances dry days and reduces wet days in India in the historical period, consistent with the observed changes. However, by the middle and end of the 21st century, there is a relative decrease in dry days and an increase in wet days and precipitation intensity. Moreover, the REM ALL simulated future CWD and CDD changes are mostly opposite to those in REM ADE , indicating the substantial role of AIE in the future projection of dry and wet climates. These findings underscore the crucial role of AIE in future projections of the Indian hydroclimate and motivate efforts to accurately represent AIE in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Hybrid Anomaly Detection Approach for Obfuscated Malware

With the rapid evolution of malicious software, cyber threats have become increasingly sophisticated, employing advanced obfuscation techniques to evade traditional detection methods. This study presents a hybrid anomaly detection approach applied to obfuscated malware. Even though there is a large body of research in this field, existing malware detection techniques have some drawbacks, such as requiring large amounts of data, trustworthiness (imprecise results) of algorithms, and advanced obfuscation. To overcome these challenges, there is a need to employ solid and efficient techniques for malware detection. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, combining an autoencoder with traditional machine-learning methods to create an efficient malware detection framework. We used the malware memory dataset (MalMemAnalysis-2022) to evaluate this framework. The results indicate that our proposed approach can detect obfuscated malware when a deep autoencoder used for feature learning is combined with logistic regression, and it is extremely fast with an Accuracy, Detection Rate (DR), Matthew Correlation Coefficient(MCC), and Statistical Parity Difference

malware detection, Hybrid Anomly Detection, Obfusc↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling

Major activities for this project consisted of three related elements: Comparing results using statistical downscaling to the dynamical downscaling performed by the UCLA (Dr. Alex Hall) team in the proposal Developing statistical downscaling methods for wind and near-surface humidity Evaluating differences in extremes across downscaling methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

GTC Follow-up Observations of Very Metal-poor Star Candidates from DESI

Abstract The observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will significantly increase the numbers of known extremely metal-poor stars by a factor of ∼10, improving the sample statistics to study the early chemical evolution of the Milky Way and the nature of the first stars. In this paper we report follow-up observations with high signal-to-noise ratio of nine metal-poor stars identified during the DESI commissioning with the Optical System for Imaging and Low-Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy (OSIRIS) instrument on the 10.4 m Gran Telescopio Canarias. The analysis of the data using a well-vetted methodology confirms the quality of the DESI spectra and the performance of the pipelines developed for the data reduction and analysis of DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symmetries and spectral statistics in chaotic conformal field theories

We discuss spectral correlations in coarse-grained chaotic two-dimensional CFTs with large central charge. We study a partition function describing the dense part of the spectrum of primary states in a way that disentangles the chaotic properties of the spectrum from those which are a consequence of Virasoro symmetry and modular invariance. We argue that random matrix universality in the near-extremal limit is an independent feature of each spin sector separately; this is a non-trivial statement because the exact spectrum is fully determined by only the spectrum of spin zero primaries and those of a single non-zero spin (“spectral determinacy”). We then describe an argument analogous to the one leading to Cardy’s formula for the averaged density of states, but in our case applying it to spectral correlations: assuming statistical universalities in the near-extremal spectrum in all spin sectors, we find similar random matrix universality in a large spin regime far from extremality.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

The statistical mechanics of near-BPS black holes

Due to the failure of thermodynamics for low temperature near-extremal black holes, it has long been conjectured that a 'thermodynamic mass gap' exists between an extremal black hole and the lightest near-extremal state. For non-supersymmetric near-extremal black holes in Einstein gravity with an AdS2 throat, no such gap was found. Rather, at that energy scale, the spectrum exhibits a continuum of states, up to non-perturbative corrections. In this paper, we compute the partition function of near-BPS black holes in supergravity where the emergent, broken, symmetry is PSU(1, 1|2). To reliably compute this partition function, we show that the gravitational path integral can be reduced to that of a $\mathcal{N}=4$ supersymmetric extension of the Schwarzian theory, which we define and exactly quantize. In contrast to the non-supersymmetric case, we find that black holes in supergravity have a mass gap and a large extremal black hole degeneracy consistent with the Bekenstein–Hawking area. Furthermore, our results verify a plethora of string theory conjectures, concerning the scale of the mass gap and the counting of extremal micro-states.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗