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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Clouds Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched aboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties have enabled over twelve years of continuous observations of cloud properties from Terra and over nine years from Aqua. The archived products from these algorithms include 1 km pixel-level (Level-2) and global gridded Level-3 products. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. Results include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties for both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as latitudinal distributions of cloud top pressure and cloud top temperature. MODIS finds the cloud fraction, as derived by the cloud mask, is nearly identical during the day and night, with only modest diurnal variation. Globally, the cloud fraction derived by the MODIS cloud mask is approx.67%, with somewhat more clouds over land during the afternoon and less clouds over ocean in the afternoon, with very little difference in global cloud cover between Terra and Aqua. Overall, cloud fraction over land is approx.55%, with a distinctive seasonal cycle, whereas the ocean cloudiness is much higher, around 72%, with much reduced seasonal variation. Cloud top pressure and temperature have distinct spatial and temporal patterns, and clearly reflect our understanding of the global cloud distribution. High clouds are especially prevalent over the northern hemisphere continents between 30 and 50 . Aqua and Terra have comparable zonal cloud top pressures, with Aqua having somewhat higher clouds (cloud top pressures lower by 100 hPa) over land due to afternoon deep convection. The coldest cloud tops (colder than 230 K) generally occur over Antarctica and the high clouds in the tropics (ITCZ and the deep convective clouds over the western tropical Pacific and Indian sub-continent).

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Module for Assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System for Unique Forecasting Applications

Hyperspectral infrared sounder radiance data are assimilated into operational modeling systems however the process is computationally expensive and only approximately 1% of available data are assimilated due to data thinning as well as the fact that radiances are restricted to cloud-free fields of view. In contrast, the number of hyperspectral infrared profiles assimilated is much higher since the retrieved profiles can be assimilated in some partly cloudy scenes due to profile coupling other data, such as microwave or neural networks, as first guesses to the retrieval process. As the operational data assimilation community attempts to assimilate cloud-affected radiances, it is possible that the use of retrieved profiles might offer an alternative methodology that is less complex and more computationally efficient to solve this problem. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has assimilated hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles into Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) System. Early research at SPoRT demonstrated improved initial conditions when assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) thermodynamic profiles into WRF (using WRF-Var and assigning more appropriate error weighting to the profiles) to improve regional analysis and heavy precipitation forecasts. Successful early work has led to more recent research utilizing WRF and GSI for applications including the assimilation of AIRS profiles to improve WRF forecasts of atmospheric rivers and assimilation of AIRS, Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) profiles to improve model representation of tropopause folds and associated non-convective wind events. Although more hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles can be assimilated into model forecasts, one disadvantage is the retrieved profiles have traditionally been assigned the same error values as the rawinsonde observations when assimilated with GSI. Typically, satellitederived profile errors are larger and more difficult to quantify than traditional rawinsonde observations (especially in the boundary layer), so it is important to appropriately assign observation errors within GSI to eliminate potential spurious innovations and analysis increments that can sometimes arise when using retrieved profiles. The goal of this study is to describe modifications to the GSI source code to more appropriately assimilate hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles and outline preliminary results that show the differences between a model simulation that assimilated the profiles as rawinsonde observations and one that assimilated the profiles in a module with the appropriate error values.

Berndt, Emily↗
NASA NTRS1981

Calculation of the thermodynamic properties of a mixture of gases as a function of temperature and pressure

The evaluation of the thermodynamic properties of a gas mixture can be performed using a generalized correlation which makes use of the second virial coefficient. This coefficient is based on statistical mechanics and is a function of temperature and composition, but not of pressure. The method provides results accurate to within 3 percent for gases which are nonpolar or only slightly polar. When applied to highly polar gases, errors of 5 to 10 percent may result. For gases which associate, even larger errors are possible. The sequences of calculations can be routinely programmed for a digital computer. The thermodynamic properties of a mixture of neon, argon and ethane were calculated by such a program. The result will be used for the design of the gas replenishment system for the Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope.

Colon, G.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Stellar atmosphere in statistical equilibrium

A static atmosphere with only Lyman continuum radiation in radiative equilibrium is studied for the effects of radiative and collisional ionization on deviations from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). Large increases and decreases of the kinetic temperature (range in T of about factor 2) and, correspondingly, very large over- and underpopulation of the bound state (range in b of about factor 1,000,000) are found, depending on the frequency dependence of the photoionization cross section. Despite these large deviations from LTE, which strongly modify the emergent spectrum, there is almost no effect on the particle densities, the degree of ionization, and the basic structure of the atmosphere.

Kalkofen, W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Global-scale, intraseasonal fluctuations of diabatic forcing of the atmosphere

Fields of diabatic heating rate estimates (H) for 5-day periods were calculated from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses since 1985 as the residual of the dry thermodynamic equation. Included in these fields are the horizontal and vertical divergences of heat for both mean and eddy statistics. Previous work dealt with 4-day periods, however, with the emphasis in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) for 5-day period totals the change was made to accommodate the GPCP product. H has long been associated with cold tropical cloud-top temperatures as measured by polar orbiting outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensors. Correlations between H and OLR fields on three time scales indicate a moderate amount of agreement. For periods less than 90 days, significant negative correlations are found between H and OLR for (1) tropical and NH midlatitude oceanic areas, and (2) for zonal and hemispheric mean values. Positive correlations are seen in NH mean and continental areas of N. Africa, N. America, N. Asia and Antarctica. These latter results reflect seasonal heating and cooling. Comparisons have been made between H as H as calculated from the ECMWF analyses and output from the CCM1 T42 simulations. The CCM1 tends to have a more cellular structure with more heating (precipitation) over land versus that observed (ECMWF) over oceans.

Christy, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The X-43A Flight Research Program: Lessons Learned on the Road to Mach 10

During an aerospace engineer's undergraduate studies, he or she will attend classes in aerodynamics, thermodynamics, structures, stability and control, dynamics, design, propulsion, and computer science, along with the related courses in mathematics, physics, statistics, and chemistry required to understand the material. Upon graduation, the new engineer will have acquired a basic knowledge of how to build an aerospace vehicle. What only comes through experience, however, is the understanding of the inevitable imperfect process through which an aerospace vehicle is built. This is the adventure of turning a basic concept into functional hardware. Engineers working on a project must often deal with ambiguous situations. They are routinely asked by management to provide risk assessments of a project, yet even after careful analysis uncertainties remain. The project must be accomplished within finite limits of time and money. The question an engineer answers is whether the solution to potential problem is worth the cost and schedule delay, or if the solution might actually be worse than the problem it is meant to solve. Review protocols are established to ensure that an unknown has not been overlooked. But these cannot protect against an unknown unknown. Examples of these situations can be found in the history of the X-43A Hyper-X (Hypersonic Experiment) program. In this NASA project, a supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) engine was flight tested on a subscale vehicle. The X-43A Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV) was launched from a B-52B mothership, then boosted to the test speed by a modified Pegasus rocket first stage, called the Hyper-X Launch Vehicle (HXLV). Once at the proper speed and altitude, the X-43A separated from the booster, stabilized itself, and then the engine test began. Although wind-tunnel scramjet engine tests had begun in the late 1950s, before the Hyper-X program there had never been an actual in-flight test of such an engine integrated with an appropriate airframe. Thus, while the scramjet had successfully operated in the artificial airflow of wind tunnels, the concept had yet to be proven in real air. These conditions meant changes in density and temperature, as well as changes in angle of attack and sideslip of a free-flying vehicle. A wind tunnel is limited in its ability to simulate these subtle factures, which have a major impact on almost any vehicle, but especially that of a scramjet's performance. The Hyper-X project was to provide a real-world benchmark of the ground test data. The full scale X-43A engine would be operated in the wind tunnel, and then flown, and the data from its operation would then be compared with projections. If these matched, the wind tunnel data would be considered a reliable design tool for future scramjet. If there were significant differences, the reasons for these would have to be identified. Until such information was available, scramjets would lack the technological maturity to be considered for future space launch or high-speed atmospheric flight vehicles.

Peebles, Curtis↗
NASA NTRS1975

The application of satellite data in the determination of ocean temperatures and cloud characteristics and statistics

The author has identified the following significant results. The major shortcoming of the data was the loss of the infrared radiances from the S191 spectrometer. The cloud thermodynamic phase determination procedure was derived and tested with the data collected by the S192 multispectral scanner. Results of the test indicate a large fraction of the data could be classified thermodynamically. An added bonus was the inclusion of snow in the classification approach. The conclusion to be drawn from this portion of the effort is that in most cases considered ice clouds, liquid water droplet clouds, and snow fields can be spectroscopically separated to a high degree of accuracy.

Curran, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Clustered or regular cumulus cloud fields - The statistical character of observed and simulated cloud fields

The spatial distribution of cumulus clouds is assumed to be the result of the effects of convective activity on the thermodynamic environment. The effects can be parameterized in terms of a stabilization function representing the time rate of change of convective available potential energy. Using these results, a new inhibition hypothesis explaining the expected characteristics of the spatial distribution of cumulus clouds is postulated. This paper performs a verification of the inhibition hypothesis on real and simulated cloud fields. In order to do so, an objective measure of the spatial characteristics of cumulus clouds is introduced. Multiple cloud experiments are performed with a three-dimensional numerical cloud model. Skylab pictures of real cumuli are also used in the verification. Results of applying this measure to simulated and observed cumulus cloud fields confirm the inhibition hypothesis.

Ramirez, Jorge A.↗
NASA NTRS1968

Computer program for calculation of ideal gas thermodynamic data

Computer program calculates ideal gas thermodynamic properties for any species for which molecular constant data is available. Partial functions and derivatives from formulas based on statistical mechanics are provided by the program which is written in FORTRAN 4 and MAP.

Gordon, S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Thermodynamics of clathrate hydrate at low and high pressures with application to the outer solar system

The thermodynamic stability of clathrate hydrate is calculated to predict the formation conditions corresponding to a range of solar system parameters. The calculations were performed using the statistical mechanical theory developed by van der Waals and Platteeuw (1959) and existing experimental data concerning clathrate hydrate and its components. Dissociation pressures and partition functions (Langmuir constants) are predicted at low pressure for CO clathrate (hydrate) using the properties of chemicals similar to CO. It is argued that nonsolar but well constrained noble gas abundances may be measurable by the Galileo spacecraft in the Jovian atmosphere if the observed carbon enhancement is due to bombardment of the atmosphere by clathrate-bearing planetesimals sometime after planetary formation. The noble gas abundances of the Jovian satellite Titan are predicted, assuming that most of the methane in Titan is accreted as clathrate. It is suggested that under thermodynamically appropriate conditions, complete clathration of water ice could have occurred in high-pressure nebulas around giant planets, but probably not in the outer solar nebula. The stability of clathrate in other pressure ranges is also discussed.

Lunine, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Non-solar noble gas abundances in the atmosphere of Jupiter

The thermodynamic stability of clathrate hydrate is calculated to predict the formation conditions corresponding to a range of solar system parameters. The calculations were performed using the statistical mechanical theory developed by van der Waals and Platteeuw (1959) and existing experimental data concerning clathrate hydrate and its components. Dissociation pressures and partition functions (Langmuir constants) are predicted at low pressure for CO clathrate (hydrate) using the properties of chemicals similar to CO. It is argued that nonsolar but well constrained noble gas abundances may be measurable by the Galileo spacecraft in the Jovian atmosphere if the observed carbon enhancement is due to bombardment of the atmosphere by clathrate-bearing planetesimals sometime after planetary formation. The noble gas abundances of the Jovian satellite Titan are predicted, assuming that most of the methane in Titan is accreted as clathrate. It is suggested that under thermodynamically appropriate conditions, complete clathration of water ice could have occurred in high-pressure nebulas around giant planets, but probably not in the outer solar nebula. The stability of clathrate in other pressure ranges is also discussed.

Lunine, Jonathan I.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Environment

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of days that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). The meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity beneath the inversion, and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (approx. 15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between days with rapid low ceiling formation and days with low ceiling resulting from other mechanism. The AMU found that the vertical wind profile is the probable discerning factor between the rapidly-forming ceiling days and other low ceiling days at TTS. Most rapidly-developing low ceiling days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height, whereas other low ceiling days typically had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds ceilings below 8000 ft in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment, Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1993-2003 for days that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the morning Cape Canaveral, FL rawinsonde (XMR) during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Days with precipitation or noticeable fog bum-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the daytime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since low clouds are easier to diagnose with visible satellite imagery. Follow-on work would expand the database to include nighttime cases, using a special enhancement of the infrared imagery for identifying areas of low clouds. The report presents two sample cases of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. These cases depict the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The cases also illustrate how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 20 event days with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 48 non-events days consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The meteorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event days, since both types of days experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of days had a relatively moist environment beneath the inversion based below 8000 ft. In the 20 events identified, de onset of low ceilings occurred between 1200-1800 UTC in every instance. The distinguishing factor between the event and non-event days appears to be the vertical wind profile in the XMR sounding. Eighty-five percent of the event days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height in the lower to middle troposphere whereas 83% of the non-events had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. A clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates a warm advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motn and possible cloud formation. Meanwhile, a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates cold advection or sinking motion in a post-cold frontal environment.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convection and Easterly Wave Structure Observed in the Eastern Pacific Warm-Pool during EPIC-2001

During September-October 2001, the East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC-2001) ITCZ field campaign focused on studies of deep convection in the warm-pool region of the East Pacific. In addition to the TAO mooring array, observational platforms deployed during the field phase included the NOAA ship RN Ronald H. Brown, the NSF ship RN Horizon, and the NOAA P-3 and NCAR C-130 aircraft. This study combines C-band Doppler radar, rawinsonde, and surface heat flux data collected aboard the RN Brown to describe ITCZ convective structure and rainfall statistics in the eastern Pacific as a function of 3-5 day easterly wave phase. Three distinct easterly wave passages occurred during EPIC-2001. Wind and thermodynamic data reveal that the wave trough axes exhibited positively correlated U and V winds and a slight westward phase tilt with height. A relatively strong (weak) northeasterly deep tropospheric shear followed the trough (ridge) axis. Temperature and humidity perturbations exhibited mid-to upper level cooling (warming) and drying (moistening) in the northerly (trough and southerly) phase. At low levels warming (cooling) occurred in the northerly (southerly) phase with little change in the relative humidity, though mixed layer mixing ratios were larger during the northerly phase. When composited, radar, sounding, lightning and surface heat flux observations suggest the following systematic behavior as a function of wave phase: approximately zero to one quarter wavelength ahead of (behind) the wave trough in northerly (southerly) flow, larger (smaller) CAPE, lower (higher) CIN, weaker (stronger) tropospheric shear, higher (lower) conditional mean rain rates, higher (lower) lightning flash densities, and more (less) robust convective vertical structure occurred. Latent and sensible heat fluxes reached a minimum in the northerly phase and then increased through the trough, reaching a peak during the ridge phase (leading the peak in CAPE). From a radar echo coverage perspective, larger areas of light rain and slightly larger (10%) area averaged rain rates occurred in the vicinity of, and just behind, the trough axes in southerly flow. Importantly, the transition in convective structure observed across the trough axis when considered with the relatively small change in area mean rain rates suggests the presence of a transition in the vertical structure of diabatic heating across the easterly waves examined. The inferred transition in heating structure is supported by radar diagnosed divergence profiles that exhibit convective (stratiform) characteristics ahead of (behind) the trough.

Peterson, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Statistical mechanics of light elements at high pressure. VII - A perturbative free energy for arbitrary mixtures of H and He

A model free energy is presented which accurately represents results from 45 high-precision Monte Carlo calculations of the thermodynamics of hydrogen-helium mixtures at pressures of astrophysical and planetophysical interest. The free energy is calculated using free-electron perturbation theory (dielectric function theory), and is an extension of the expression given in an earlier paper in this series. However, it fits the Monte Carlo results more accurately, and is valid for the full range of compositions from pure hydrogen to pure helium. Using the new free energy, the phase diagram of mixtures of liquid metallic hydrogen and helium is calculated and compared with earlier results. Sample results for mixing volumes are also presented, and the new free energy expression is used to compute a theoretical Jovian adiabat and compare the adiabat with results from three-dimensional Thomas-Fermi-Dirac theory. The present theory gives slightly higher densities at pressures of about 10 megabars.

Hubbard, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2022

Assimilation of GPM-retrieved Ocean Surface Meteorology Data for Two Snowstorm Events during ICE-POP 2018

As a component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Weather Focus Area and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation participation in the International Collaborative Experiments for PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (ICE-POP 2018) field research and forecast demonstration programs, hourly ocean surface meteorology properties were retrieved from the GPM microwave observations for January – March 2018. In this study, the retrieved ocean surface meteorological products – 2-m temperature, 2-m specific humidity, and 10-m wind speed were assimilated into a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework to explore the application of these observations for two heavy snowfall events during the ICE-POP 2018: 27-28 February, and 7-8 March 2018. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) were used to conduct high resolution simulations and data assimilation experiments. The results indicate that the data assimilation has a large influence on surface thermodynamic and wind fields in the model initial condition for both events. With cycled data assimilation, significantly positive influence of the retrieved surface observation was found for the March case with improved quantitative precipitation forecast and reduced error in temperature forecast. A slightly smaller yet positive impact was also found in the forecast of the February case.

assimilation↗