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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Big Data Meets Geothermal Exploration (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc. investigated the application of micro-earthquake and ambient noise seismology methods to imaging and characterizing the structural characteristics and hydrothermal flux of subsurface faults. Significant advances in what could be resolved were enabled by two major developments in seismology: 1) the availability of large-n arrays of low-cost seismometers, and 2) the availability of increased computational power and semi-automated data reduction algorithms. In tandem, these advances may improve the signal-to-noise ratio and spatial precision of the data collected and enable higher-resolution characterization of subsurface fracture systems and their spatio-temporal evolution. These tools supported efforts to reduce dry-hole risk and to improve wellfield productivity for geothermal resource development. In particular, two applications of these advances were evaluated: 1) fracture-seismic imaging, which was used to detect ambient emissions from fluid-filled fractures, and 2) reservoir tomography, which used information about travel paths, source locations, and source parameters of micro-earthquakes to identify areas of enhanced permeability. Integration of these methods provided guidance for siting wells and served as prior constraints for reservoir models, informing forecasts of power potential and production and injection strategies aimed at minimizing temperature decline and improving overall resource productivity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Density and temperature profiles after low-Z and high-Z shattered pellet injections on DIII-D

Abstract In this work we utilize the recently upgraded Thomson scattering diagnostic to resolve density and temperature plasma profiles after pure deuterium and mixed neon/deuterium shattered pellet injections (SPIs) on DIII-D. This allows us to study individual components of the staggered scheme proposed for disruption mitigation on ITER, consisting of a low-Z material SPI followed by a delayed high-Z SPI. Obtained spatio-temporal density profiles exhibit very different dynamics after dominantly neon and pure deuterium SPIs. The neon SPI causes a fast radiative plasma collapse in a few milliseconds and results in almost flat density profile once the impurity mixes with the plasma during and after the thermal quench (TQ). The deuterium SPI leads to a disruption delayed by ten and more milliseconds, but very limited core fueling can be observed before the disruption. Even during and after the TQ, the edge deuterium density significantly exceeds the core density. 1D transport modeling suggests that this poor core fueling can be explained by strong outward grad-B-induced drift of the injected deuterium. Preliminary simulations show that larger pellet shards and greater injected quantity can be used to improve the penetration of the low-Z material into the core. These results call for optimization and further evaluation of the staggered SPI on ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring thermal runaway propagation in Li-ion batteries through high-speed X-ray imaging and thermal analysis: Impact of cell chemistry and electrical connections

Battery safety design is important to consider from the individual Li-ion cell to the level of the macro-system. On the macro-level, failure in one single cell can lead to propagation of the thermal runaway and rapidly set a whole battery pack on fire. Factors that can impact the propagation outcome, such as cell model/chemistry and electrical connection are here investigated using a combination of measurements. Several abusive tests were conducted, combining two different cell models (Molicel P42A and LG M50, both 21700s) in series and parallel connections (16 tests per configuration). Overall, a propagation outcome of 56% was measured from the 32 conducted tests, a minimum temperature of 150 °C was required to initiate propagation, and the fastest propagation occurred in 123 s. Temperature measurements were higher in series connected cells, initiating the discussion of cell chemistry and internal resistance on this effect. The difference in current-flow during thermal runaway in series and parallel connections, and how this can affect the temperature evolution is further discussed. Spatio-temporal mapping of X-ray radiography allowed us to derive the speed of thermal runaway evolution inside the battery and has shown that series connected cells, in particular P42A, occur faster. It was further observed that deviant sidewall behaviors such as temperature-induced breaches and pressure-induced ruptures occurred in P42As only respective nail-penetrated cells only.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection with Graph Networks for Data Quality Monitoring of the Hadron Calorimeter

The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment is a general-purpose detector for high-energy collision at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. It employs an online data quality monitoring (DQM) system to promptly spot and diagnose particle data acquisition problems to avoid data quality loss. In this study, we present a semi-supervised spatio-temporal anomaly detection (AD) monitoring system for the physics particle reading channels of the Hadron Calorimeter (HCAL) of the CMS using three-dimensional digi-occupancy map data of the DQM. We propose the GraphSTAD system, which employs convolutional and graph neural networks to learn local spatial characteristics induced by particles traversing the detector and the global behavior owing to shared backend circuit connections and housing boxes of the channels, respectively. Recurrent neural networks capture the temporal evolution of the extracted spatial features. We validate the accuracy of the proposed AD system in capturing diverse channel fault types using the LHC collision data sets. The GraphSTAD system achieves production-level accuracy and is being integrated into the CMS core production system for real-time monitoring of the HCAL. We provide a quantitative performance comparison with alternative benchmark models to demonstrate the promising leverage of the presented system.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Deep Graph Network for Event Detection, Localization, and Classification in Cyber-Physical Electric Distribution System

This work proposes a deep graph learning framework to identify, locate, and classify power, cyber, and cyber power events at the distribution system level. The proposed algorithm jointly exploits spatial, temporal, and node-level cyber and physical data features. The developed graph neural network, together with a deep autoencoder, utilizes physical measurements from distribution level phasor measurement units and cyber data from communication network logs. The spatial structure of the synchrophasor measurements and network is incorporated through a weighted adjacency matrix. The temporal structure is incorporated by defining a spatial operation in the gated recurrent unit. This spatio-temporal learning element resides inside a power event detection, localization, and classification module that provides the degree of confidence for an event label. To accurately pinpoint the location of an event to the nearest bus equipped with a measurement unit, a combination of squared error and proximity score is utilized. Also included is a cyber event detection module that employs heteroskedasticity to analyze the significance of various cyber features during different types of attacks. Finally, a dual-bit cyber-power decision table determines the nature of the event. The proposed method is validated on two distribution systems modeled in OPAL-RT/Hypersim with limited phasor measurement units for different possible physical and cyber events. Further analyses include comparison with other state-of-the-art methods and validation in the presence of measurement noise. As a result, our method outperforms existing approaches and achieves an average detection accuracy of 97.97%, F1-score of 96.88%, precision of 96.53%, and recall of 98.57%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

MetaPoL: Immersive VR based Indoor Patterns of Life (PoL) and Anomalies Data Generation for Insider Threat Modeling in Nuclear Security

Insider threats are perhaps the most serious challenges that nuclear and radiological security systems face. Insiders pose such a great threat due to their access, authority, and knowledge, granting them opportunities to bypass dedicated nuclear and radiological security elements. For example, in one of the latest major insider threat incidents to nuclear security, the Doel-4 nuclear powerplant in Belgium suffered a shutdown, the threat of nuclear materials diversion, and long-term loss of tens of millions of dollars. Seven years of investigation concluded that it was an inside job and attempted sabotage. In this regard, there is an immediate need for R&D and technology integration in the domain of modeling indoor Patterns-of-Life (PoL) and anomaly detection. This can be achieved by using datasets of facility users’ mobility and activity, which can support the design of algorithms for insider threat modeling and detection. However, due to classification, privacy, sensitivity, and safety protocols, such datasets from real physical nuclear reactor facilities are not only hard to share, but also not always feasible to deploy and collect. Aiming to find an alternate solution, our proposed demonstration work - MetaPoL, is the first-ever (for the application space) immersive VR (virtual reality) environment of a real-world secure facility and allows users to move-and-stay through the designed indoor physical layout and also encounter NPCs (non-player characters) that emulate other facility users. In the MetaPoL an interactive user performs realistic spatio-temporal movement, dwelling and activities using a Meta Quest Pro VR headset, and that generates high-frequency (in time) high-resolution (in space) indoor spatial-temporal datasets that are valuable for PoL modeling and anomaly detection research specifically for insider threat modeling and detection mission. Such generated realistic, rich in context, and mission specific datasets can boost AI/Machine Learning based research for modeling and detecting insider threats in nuclear security and nonproliferation.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ABCs of On-Demand Transit (ODT)

On-demand mobility - also referred to as on-demand transit (ODT) - is a form of public mobility that is flexible with respect to where and when service is provided, and ODT deployments have increased significantly in recent years. Transit agencies are becoming increasingly interested in ODT, and due to differing definitions and various service design and business model options, it can be difficult to learn about the emerging industry. This work provides an overview of the definitions of ODT, recent trends internationally and in the U.S., ODT's benefits and challenges (particularly compared to fixed-route transit), three primary service design options, system costs and funding considerations, and a metrics framework for evaluating ODT systems to ensure continued successful performance. Identified benefits include increased service areas, short ride and wait times, increased user flexibility, potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions through shared trips and smaller, right-sized vehicles, increased safety and comfort through door-to-door service, and rich data streams including granular spatio-temporal data that can be analyzed to continuously improve the service. Challenges include scaling ODT service up as small increases in ridership require additional supply to keep service quality high, serving peak times including keeping low wait times, the lack of fixed schedule being challenging for commuters, integrating ODT services with nearby transit systems, and equity for riders without smartphones who cannot track the vehicle in a mobile app. Finally, an overview of seven ODT case studies (in Texas, Missouri, New York, and Ontario, Canada) performed by NREL and related analysis of travel time, energy and emissions, costs, and equity are presented. Initial key findings include: ODT can be cost- and energy-effective compared to fixed-route transit, ODT serves more people than other transit options, and ODT system deployments can be followed by rapid growth.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microdiverse bacterial clades prevail across Antarctic wetlands

Antarctica's extreme environmental conditions impose selection pressures on microbial communities. Indeed, a previous study revealed that bacterial assemblages at the Cierva Point Wetland Complex (CPWC) are shaped by strong homogeneous selection. Yet which bacterial phylogenetic clades are shaped by selection processes and their ecological strategies to thrive in such extreme conditions remain unknown. Here, we applied the phyloscore and feature-level βNTI indexes coupled with phylofactorization to successfully detect bacterial monophyletic clades subjected to homogeneous (HoS) and heterogenous (HeS) selection. Remarkably, only the HoS clades showed high relative abundance across all samples and signs of putative microdiversity. The majority of the amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) within each HoS clade clustered into a unique 97% sequence similarity operational taxonomic unit (OTU) and inhabited a specific environment (lotic, lentic or terrestrial). Our findings suggest the existence of microdiversification leading to sub-taxa niche differentiation, with putative distinct ecotypes (consisting of groups of ASVs) adapted to a specific environment. We hypothesize that HoS clades thriving in the CPWC have phylogenetically conserved traits that accelerate their rate of evolution, enabling them to adapt to strong spatio-temporally variable selection pressures. Variable selection appears to operate within clades to cause very rapid microdiversification without losing key traits that lead to high abundance. Variable and homogeneous selection, therefore, operate simultaneously but on different aspects of organismal ecology. The result is an overall signal of homogeneous selection due to rapid within-clade microdiversification caused by variable selection. It is unknown whether other systems experience this dynamic, and we encourage future work evaluating the transferability of our results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

GeoAI for Public Health

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas.

Zufle, Andreas↗
DOE OSTI2024

A regularized-interface method as a unified formulation for simulations of high-pressure multiphase flows

The injection of multi-species fluids into high-pressure and high-temperature environments beyond the species' critical points is commonly found in engineering applications. At these conditions, for immiscible species, both subcritical interfacial dynamics and supercritical mixing can coexist due to variations in temperature around the mixture critical point. The modeling of these complex transcritical phenomena for large-scale configurations is so far not possible. To address this issue, we propose the Regularized-Interface Method (RIM) as a unified formulation that can describe both sub- and supercritical processes as well as the transition between them. The proposed method is derived via filtering of the nanoscale interface-resolving formulation based on van der Waals' linear gradient theory. Thus, this approach allows for the consistent modeling of interfacial dynamics that vanishes at supercritical conditions, while significantly reducing the temporal and spatial resolution constraints of the original nanoscale formulation. The resulting RIM formulation is examined in interface-capturing simulations of sub-, trans-, and supercritical fuel injection processes, involving droplets and jets. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of resolving spatio-temporal transitions from subcritical interfacial dynamics to supercritical mixing in high-pressure multiphase simulations, in contrast to commonly employed diffused-interface methods, where interfacial dynamics are often neglected.

Interface capturing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗