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At least 91 records · Page 5

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Estimation of the DARHT Radiographic Spot Size from Spatially Modulated Images

We wrote a software routine to find local extrema and calculate the contrast in the image for each feature set. The input is a KTO image in the standard DARHT orientation, pre-processed by flat-fielding, dark frame subtraction and de-warping. Table 1 shows contrast results for five contemporaneous DARHT images of the KTO. For some very dense feature sets, contrast measurements are not possible due to a lack of local extrema, and in this case no contrast value is given in the table. Highlighted in bold are the contrast values for each image that bound the threshold C = 0.01. The contrast is varying rapidly enough with spatial frequency that we can interpolate between these values to find an estimate of the spatial frequency at the threshold value.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

INPUTB: A thermal/structural data interface program for 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional interpolation

A computer program (INPUTB) for interpolation in both space and time, and based on a linear interpolation scheme using simplex spatial regions is described. The program was developed to provide data interfacing between the output from thermal analyzers and the input to the BOPACE 3-D program. The INPUTB interpolator is of a general nature and could be used for other tasks. The INPUTB program utilizes temperature values which are given at some sequence of time for a list of strategically located thermal nodes. It operates on these values by performing a double interpolation to provide temperature values at another desired sequence of times for a list of structural nodes.

Vos, R. G.↗

Algebraic grid generation for complex geometries

An efficient computer program called GRID2D/3D has been developed to generate single and composite grid systems within geometrically complex two- and three-dimensional (2D and 3D) spatial domains that can deform with time. GRID2D/3D generates single grid systems by using algebraic grid generation methods based on transfinite interpolation. The distribution of grid points within the spatial domain is controlled by stretching functions and grid lines can intersect boundaries of the spatial domain orthogonally. GRID2D/3D generates composite grid systems by patching together two or more single grid systems. The patching can be discontinuous or continuous. For 2D spatial domains the boundary curves are constructed by using either cubic or tension spline interpolation. For 3D spatial domains the boundary surfaces are constructed by using a new technique, developed in this study, referred to as 3D bidirectional Hermite interpolation.

Shih, T. I.-P.↗

Higher-Order Finite Elements for Computing Thermal Radiation

Two variants of the finite-element method have been developed for use in computational simulations of radiative transfers of heat among diffuse gray surfaces. Both variants involve the use of higher-order finite elements, across which temperatures and radiative quantities are assumed to vary according to certain approximations. In this and other applications, higher-order finite elements are used to increase (relative to classical finite elements, which are assumed to be isothermal) the accuracies of final numerical results without having to refine computational meshes excessively and thereby incur excessive computation times. One of the variants is termed the radiation sub-element (RSE) method, which, itself, is subject to a number of variations. This is the simplest and most straightforward approach to representation of spatially variable surface radiation. Any computer code that, heretofore, could model surface-to-surface radiation can incorporate the RSE method without major modifications. In the basic form of the RSE method, each finite element selected for use in computing radiative heat transfer is considered to be a parent element and is divided into sub-elements for the purpose of solving the surface-to-surface radiation-exchange problem. The sub-elements are then treated as classical finite elements; that is, they are assumed to be isothermal, and their view factors and absorbed heat fluxes are calculated accordingly. The heat fluxes absorbed by the sub-elements are then transferred back to the parent element to obtain a radiative heat flux that varies spatially across the parent element. Variants of the RSE method involve the use of polynomials to interpolate and/or extrapolate to approximate spatial variations of physical quantities. The other variant of the finite-element method is termed the integration method (IM). Unlike in the RSE methods, the parent finite elements are not subdivided into smaller elements, and neither isothermality nor other unrealistic physical conditions are assumed. Instead, the equations of radiative heat transfer are integrated numerically over the parent finite elements by use of a computationally efficient Gaussian integration scheme.

Gould, Dana C.↗

Selection of polynomial chaos bases via Bayesian model uncertainty methods with applications to sparse approximation of PDEs with stochastic inputs

Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow us to represent the solution of a stochastic system using a series of polynomial chaos basis functions. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically as the dimension of the random input variables increases. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs when the corresponding deterministic solver is computationally expensive, evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solutions, in both spatial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spatial points, via (1) the Bayesian model average (BMA) or (2) the median probability model, and their construction as spatial functions on the spatial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts for the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter provides a sparse representation of the stochastic solutions by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases. Moreover, the proposed methods quantify the importance of the gPC bases in the probabilistic sense through inclusion probabilities. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed methods are suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solutions are sparse in the stochastic space with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the proposed methods and make comparisons with other approaches on solving elliptic SPDEs with 1-, 14- and 40-random dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling and Simulation of Variable Mass, Flexible Structures

The advent of the new Ares I launch vehicle has highlighted the need for advanced dynamic analysis tools for variable mass, flexible structures. This system is composed of interconnected flexible stages or components undergoing rapid mass depletion through the consumption of solid or liquid propellant. In addition to large rigid body configuration changes, the system simultaneously experiences elastic deformations. In most applications, the elastic deformations are compatible with linear strain-displacement relationships and are typically modeled using the assumed modes technique. The deformation of the system is approximated through the linear combination of the products of spatial shape functions and generalized time coordinates. Spatial shape functions are traditionally composed of normal mode shapes of the system or even constraint modes and static deformations derived from finite element models of the system. Equations of motion for systems undergoing coupled large rigid body motion and elastic deformation have previously been derived through a number of techniques [1]. However, in these derivations, the mode shapes or spatial shape functions of the system components were considered constant. But with the Ares I vehicle, the structural characteristics of the system are changing with the mass of the system. Previous approaches to solving this problem involve periodic updates to the spatial shape functions or interpolation between shape functions based on system mass or elapsed mission time. These solutions often introduce misleading or even unstable numerical transients into the system. Plus, interpolation on a shape function is not intuitive. This paper presents an approach in which the shape functions are held constant and operate on the changing mass and stiffness matrices of the vehicle components. Each vehicle stage or component finite element model is broken into dry structure and propellant models. A library of propellant models is used to describe the distribution of mass in the fuel tank or Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) case for various propellant levels. Based on the mass consumed by the liquid engine or SRB, the appropriate propellant model is coupled with the dry structure model for the stage. Then using vehicle configuration data, the integrated vehicle model is assembled and operated on by the constant system shape functions. The system mode shapes and frequencies can then be computed from the resulting generalized mass and stiffness matrices for that mass configuration. The rigid body mass properties of the vehicle are derived from the integrated vehicle model. The coupling terms between the vehicle rigid body motion and elastic deformation are also updated from the constant system shape functions and the integrated vehicle model. This approach was first used to analyze variable mass spinning beams and then prototyped into a generic dynamics simulation engine. The resulting code was tested against Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV-)class problems worked in the TREETOPS simulation package and by Wilson [2]. The Ares I System Integration Laboratory (SIL) is currently being developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to test vehicle avionics hardware and software in a hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) environment and certify that the integrated system is prepared for flight. The Ares I SIL utilizes the Ares Real-Time Environment for Modeling, Integration, and Simulation (ARTEMIS) tool to simulate the launch vehicle and stimulate avionics hardware. Due to the presence of vehicle control system filters and the thrust oscillation suppression system, which are tuned to the structural characteristics of the vehicle, ARTEMIS must incorporate accurate structural models of the Ares I launch vehicle. The ARTEMIS core dynamics simulation models the highly coupled nature of the vehicle flexible body dynamics, propellant slosh, and vehicle nozzle inertia effects combined with mass and flexible body properties that vary significant with time during the flight. All forces that act on the vehicle during flight must be simulated, including deflected engine thrust force, spatially distributed aerodynamic forces, gravity, and reaction control jet thrust forces. These forces are used to excite an integrated flexible vehicle, slosh, and nozzle dynamics model for the vehicle stack that simulates large rigid body translations and rotations along with small elastic deformations. Highly effective matrix math operations on a distributed, threaded high-performance simulation node allow ARTEMIS to retain up to 30 modes of flex for real-time simulation. Stage elements that separate from the stack during flight are propagated as independent rigid six degrees of freedom (6DOF) bodies. This paper will present the formulation of the resulting equations of motion, solutions to example problems, and describe the resulting dynamics simulation engine within ARTEMIS.

Tobbe, Patrick A.↗

SHARP: A Spatially Higher-order, Relativistic Particle-in-cell Code

Numerical heating in particle-in-cell (PIC) codes currently precludes the accurate simulation of cold, relativistic plasma over long periods, severely limiting their applications in astrophysical environments. We present a spatially higher-order accurate relativistic PIC algorithm in one spatial dimension, which conserves charge and momentum exactly. We utilize the smoothness implied by the usage of higher-order interpolation functions to achieve a spatially higher-order accurate algorithm (up to the fifth order). We validate our algorithm against several test problems—thermal stability of stationary plasma, stability of linear plasma waves, and two-stream instability in the relativistic and non-relativistic regimes. Comparing our simulations to exact solutions of the dispersion relations, we demonstrate that SHARP can quantitatively reproduce important kinetic features of the linear regime. Our simulations have a superior ability to control energy non-conservation and avoid numerical heating in comparison to common second-order schemes. We provide a natural definition for convergence of a general PIC algorithm: the complement of physical modes captured by the simulation, i.e., those that lie above the Poisson noise, must grow commensurately with the resolution. This implies that it is necessary to simultaneously increase the number of particles per cell and decrease the cell size. We demonstrate that traditional ways for testing for convergence fail, leading to plateauing of the energy error. This new PIC code enables us to faithfully study the long-term evolution of plasma problems that require absolute control of the energy and momentum conservation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the Spatial and Temporal Accuracy of Overset Grid Methods for Moving Body Problems

A study of numerical attributes peculiar to an overset grid approach to unsteady aerodynamics prediction is presented. Attention is focused on the effect of spatial error associated with interpolation of intergrid boundary conditions and temporal error associated with explicit update of intergrid boundary points on overall solution accuracy. A set of numerical experiments are used to verify whether or not the use of simple interpolation for intergrid boundary conditions degrades the formal accuracy of a conventional second-order flow solver, and to quantify the error associated with explicit updating of intergrid boundary points. Test conditions correspond to the transonic regime. The validity of the numerical results presented here are established by comparison with existing numerical results of documented accuracy, and by direct comparison with experimental results.

Meakin, Robert L.↗

Characterization of Pixelated Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride Detectors for Astrophysical Applications

Comparisons of charge sharing and charge loss measurements between two pixelated Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride (CdZnTe) detectors are discussed. These properties along with the detector geometry help to define the limiting energy resolution and spatial resolution of the detector in question. The first detector consists of a 1-mm-thick piece of CdZnTe sputtered with a 4x4 array of pixels with pixel pitch of 750 microns (inter-pixel gap is 100 microns). Signal readout is via discrete ultra-low-noise preamplifiers, one for each of the 16 pixels. The second detector consists of a 2-mm-thick piece of CdZnTe sputtered with a 16x16 array of pixels with a pixel pitch of 300 microns (inter-pixel gap is 50 microns). This crystal is bonded to a custom-built readout chip (ASIC) providing all front-end electronics to each of the 256 independent pixels. These detectors act as precursors to that which will be used at the focal plane of the High Energy Replicated Optics (HERO) telescope currently being developed at Marshall Space Flight Center. With a telescope focal length of 6 meters, the detector needs to have a spatial resolution of around 200 microns in order to take full advantage of the HERO angular resolution. We discuss to what degree charge sharing will degrade energy resolution but will improve our spatial resolution through position interpolation.

Gaskin, Jessica↗

Characterization of a 2-mm thick, 16x16 Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride Pixel Array

The detector under study is a 2-mm-thick, 16x16 Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride pixel array with a pixel pitch of 300 microns and inter-pixel gap of 50 microns. This detector is a precursor to that which will be used at the focal plane of the High Energy Replicated Optics (HERO) telescope currently being developed at Marshall Space Flight Center. With a telescope focal length of 6 meters, the detector needs to have a spatial resolution of around 200 microns in order to take full advantage of the HERO angular resolution. We discuss to what degree charge sharing will degrade energy resolution but will improve our spatial resolution through position interpolation. In addition, we discuss electric field modeling for this specific detector geometry and the role this mapping will play in terms of charge sharing and charge loss in the detector.

Gaskin, Jessica↗

A Comparison of Approximation Modeling Techniques: Polynomial Versus Interpolating Models

Two methods of creating approximation models are compared through the calculation of the modeling accuracy on test problems involving one, five, and ten independent variables. Here, the test problems are representative of the modeling challenges typically encountered in realistic engineering optimization problems. The first approximation model is a quadratic polynomial created using the method of least squares. This type of polynomial model has seen considerable use in recent engineering optimization studies due to its computational simplicity and ease of use. However, quadratic polynomial models may be of limited accuracy when the response data to be modeled have multiple local extrema. The second approximation model employs an interpolation scheme known as kriging developed in the fields of spatial statistics and geostatistics. This class of interpolating model has the flexibility to model response data with multiple local extrema. However, this flexibility is obtained at an increase in computational expense and a decrease in ease of use. The intent of this study is to provide an initial exploration of the accuracy and modeling capabilities of these two approximation methods.

Giunta, Anthony A.↗

GRID2D/3D: A computer program for generating grid systems in complex-shaped two- and three-dimensional spatial domains. Part 2: User's manual and program listing

An efficient computer program, called GRID2D/3D, was developed to generate single and composite grid systems within geometrically complex two- and three-dimensional (2- and 3-D) spatial domains that can deform with time. GRID2D/3D generates single grid systems by using algebraic grid generation methods based on transfinite interpolation in which the distribution of grid points within the spatial domain is controlled by stretching functions. All single grid systems generated by GRID2D/3D can have grid lines that are continuous and differentiable everywhere up to the second-order. Also, grid lines can intersect boundaries of the spatial domain orthogonally. GRID2D/3D generates composite grid systems by patching together two or more single grid systems. The patching can be discontinuous or continuous. For continuous composite grid systems, the grid lines are continuous and differentiable everywhere up to the second-order except at interfaces where different single grid systems meet. At interfaces where different single grid systems meet, the grid lines are only differentiable up to the first-order. For 2-D spatial domains, the boundary curves are described by using either cubic or tension spline interpolation. For 3-D spatial domains, the boundary surfaces are described by using either linear Coon's interpolation, bi-hyperbolic spline interpolation, or a new technique referred to as 3-D bi-directional Hermite interpolation. Since grid systems generated by algebraic methods can have grid lines that overlap one another, GRID2D/3D contains a graphics package for evaluating the grid systems generated. With the graphics package, the user can generate grid systems in an interactive manner with the grid generation part of GRID2D/3D. GRID2D/3D is written in FORTRAN 77 and can be run on any IBM PC, XT, or AT compatible computer. In order to use GRID2D/3D on workstations or mainframe computers, some minor modifications must be made in the graphics part of the program; no modifications are needed in the grid generation part of the program. The theory and method used in GRID2D/3D is described.

Bailey, R. T.↗