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NASA NTRS2005

Climatic Versus Biotic Constraints on Carbon and Water Fluxes in Seasonally Drought-affected Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems

We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS ( 50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE.

Schwarz, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

In the Shade of Affluence: The Inequitable Distribution of the Urban Heat Island

The urban heat island is an unintended consequence of humans building upon rural and native landscapes. We hypothesized that variations in vegetation and land use patterns across an urbanizing regional landscape would produce a temperature distribution that was spatially heterogeneous and correlated with the social characteristics of urban neighborhoods. Using biophysical and social data scaled to conform to US census geography, we found that affluent whites were more likely to live in vegetated and less climatically stressed neighborhoods likely to live in than low-income Latinos in Phoenix, Arizona. Affluent neighborhoods had cooler summer temperatures that reduced exposure to outdoor heat-related health risks, especially during a heat wave period. In addition to being warmer, poorer neighborhoods lacked critical resources in their physical and social environments to help them cope with extreme heat. Increased average temperatures due to climate change are expected to exacerbate the impacts of urban heat islands.

Harlan, Sharon L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve EPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.

Nigro, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2011

Variability in Surface BRDF at Different Spatial Scales (30 m-500 m) Over a Mixed Agricultural Landscape as Retrieved from Airborne and Satellite Spectral Measurements

Over the past decade, the role of multiangle remote sensing has been central to the development of algorithms for the retrieval of global land surface properties including models of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), albedo, land cover/dynamics, burned area extent, as well as other key surface biophysical quantities represented by the anisotropic reflectance characteristics of vegetation. In this study, a new retrieval strategy for fine-to-moderate resolution multiangle observations was developed, based on the operational sequence used to retrieve the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 reflectance and BRDF/albedo products. The algorithm makes use of a semiempirical kernel-driven bidirectional reflectance model to provide estimates of intrinsic albedo (i.e., directional-hemispherical reflectance and bihemispherical reflectance), model parameters describing the BRDF, and extensive quality assurance information. The new retrieval strategy was applied to NASA's Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) data acquired during the 2007 Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) over the well-instrumented Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in Oklahoma, USA. For the case analyzed, we obtained approx.1.6 million individual surface bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) retrievals, from nadir to 75 off-nadir, and at spatial resolutions ranging from 3 m - 500 m. This unique dataset was used to examine the interaction of the spatial and angular characteristics of a mixed agricultural landscape; and provided the basis for detailed assessments of: (1) the use of a priori knowledge in kernel-driven BRDF model inversions; (2) the interaction between surface reflectance anisotropy and instrument spatial resolution; and (3) the uncertain ties that arise when sub-pixel differences in the BRDF are aggregated to a moderate resolution satellite pixel. Results offer empirical evidence concerning the influence of scale and spatial heterogeneity in kernel-driven BRDF models; providing potential new insights into the behavior and characteristics of different surface radiative properties related to land/use cover change and vegetation structure.

Roman, Miguel O.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Satellite-Derived TOA Shortwave Clear-Sky Fluxes to Estimates from GCM Simulations Constrained by Satellite Observations of Land Surface Characteristics

Clear-sky, upwelling shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere (S(sub TOA raised arrow)), simulated using the atmospheric and land model components of the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3), is compared to corresponding observational estimates from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor. Improvements resulting from the use of land surface albedo derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain the simulations are also examined. Compared to CERES observations, CCSM3 overestimates global, annual averaged S(sub TOA raised arrow) over both land and oceans. However, regionally, CCSM3 overestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over some land and ocean areas while underestimating it over other sites. CCSM3 underestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over the Saharan and Arabian Deserts and substantial differences exist between CERES observations and CCSM3 over agricultural areas. Over selected sites, after using groundbased observations to remove systematic biases that exist in CCSM computation of S(sub TOA raised arrow), it is found that use of MODIS albedo improves the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow). Inability of coarse resolution CCSM3 simulation to resolve spatial heterogeneity of snowfall over high altitude sites such as the Tibetan Plateau causes overestimation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) in these areas. Discrepancies also exist in the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) over ocean areas as CCSM3 does not account for the effect of wind speed on ocean surface albedo. This study shows that the radiative energy budget at the TOA is improved through the use of MODIS albedo in Global Climate Models.

Anantharaj, Valentine G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Global Precipitation Measurement, Validation, and Applications Integrated Hydrologic Validation to Improve Physical Precipitation Retrievals for GPM

Land surface modeling and data assimilation can provide dynamic land surface state variables necessary to support physical precipitation retrieval algorithms over land. It is well-known that surface emission, particularly over the range of frequencies to be included in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), is sensitive to land surface states, including soil properties, vegetation type and greenness, soil moisture, surface temperature, and snow cover, density, and grain size. In order to investigate the robustness of both the land surface model states and the microwave emissivity and forward radiative transfer models, we have undertaken a multi-site investigation as part of the NASA Precipitation Measurement Missions (PMM) Land Surface Characterization Working Group. Specifically, we will demonstrate the performance of the Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Peters-Lidard et aI., 2007; Kumar et al., 2006) coupled to the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA's) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM; Weng, 2007; van Deist, 2009). The land surface is characterized by complex physical/chemical constituents and creates temporally and spatially heterogeneous surface properties in response to microwave radiation scattering. The uncertainties in surface microwave emission (both surface radiative temperature and emissivity) and very low polarization ratio are linked to difficulties in rainfall detection using low-frequency passive microwave sensors (e.g.,Kummerow et al. 2001). Therefore, addressing these issues is of utmost importance for the GPM mission. There are many approaches to parameterizing land surface emission and radiative transfer, some of which have been customized for snow (e.g., the Helsinki University of Technology or HUT radiative transfer model;) and soil moisture (e.g., the Land Surface Microwave Emission Model or LSMEM).

Peters-Lidar, Christa D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability in Surface BRDF at Different Spatial Scales (30m-500m) Over a Mixed Agricultural Landscape as Retrieved from Airborne and Satellite Spectral Measurements

Over the past decade, the role of multiangle 1 remote sensing has been central to the development of algorithms for the retrieval of global land surface properties including models of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), albedo, land cover/dynamics, burned area extent, as well as other key surface biophysical quantities represented by the anisotropic reflectance characteristics of vegetation. In this study, a new retrieval strategy for fine-to-moderate resolution multiangle observations was developed, based on the operational sequence used to retrieve the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 reflectance and BRDF/albedo products. The algorithm makes use of a semiempirical kernel-driven bidirectional reflectance model to provide estimates of intrinsic albedo (i.e., directional-hemispherical reflectance and bihemispherical reflectance), model parameters describing the BRDF, and extensive quality assurance information. The new retrieval strategy was applied to NASA's Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) data acquired during the 2007 Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) over the well-instrumented Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in Oklahoma, USA. For the case analyzed, we obtained approx.1.6 million individual surface bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) retrievals, from nadir to 75deg off-nadir, and at spatial resolutions ranging from 3 m - 500 m. This unique dataset was used to examine the interaction of the spatial and angular 18 characteristics of a mixed agricultural landscape; and provided the basis for detailed assessments of: (1) the use of a priori knowledge in kernel-driven BRDF model inversions; (2) the interaction between surface reflectance anisotropy and instrument spatial resolution; and (3) the uncertainties that arise when sub-pixel differences in the BRDF are aggregated to a moderate resolution satellite pixel. Results offer empirical evidence concerning the influence of scale and spatial heterogeneity in kernel-driven BRDF models; providing potential new insights into the behavior and characteristics of different surface radiative properties related to land/use cover change and vegetation structure.

Roman, Miguel O.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Intercomparison of MODIS Albedo Retrievals and In Situ Measurements Across the Global FLUXNET Network

Surface albedo is a key parameter in the Earth's energy balance since it affects the amount of solar radiation directly absorbed at the planet surface. Its variability in time and space can be globally retrieved through the use of remote sensing products. To evaluate and improve the quality of satellite retrievals, careful intercomparisons with in situ measurements of surface albedo are crucial. For this purpose we compared MODIS albedo retrievals with surface measurements taken at 53 FLUXNET sites that met strict conditions of land cover homogeneity. A good agreement between mean yearly values of satellite retrievals and in situ measurements was found (R(exp 2)= 0.82). The mismatch is correlated to the spatial heterogeneity of surface albedo, stressing the relevance of land cover homogeneity when comparing point to pixel data. When the seasonal patterns of MODIS albedo is considered for different plant functional types, the match with surface observation is extremely good at all forest sites. On the contrary, in non-forest sites satellite retrievals underestimate in situ measurements across the seasonal cycle. The mismatch observed at grasslands and croplands sites is likely due to the extreme fragmentation of these landscapes, as confirmed by geostatistical attributes derived from high resolution scenes.

Cescatti, Alessandro↗

NASA NTRS2012

High Precision, Absolute Total Column Ozone Measurements from the Pandora Spectrometer System: Comparisons with Data from a Brewer Double Monochromator and Aura OMI

We present new, high precision, high temporal resolution measurements of total column ozone (TCO) amounts derived from ground-based direct-sun irradiance measurements using our recently deployed Pandora single-grating spectrometers. Pandora's small size and portability allow deployment at multiple sites within an urban air-shed and development of a ground-based monitoring network for studying small-scale atmospheric dynamics, spatial heterogeneities in trace gas distribution, local pollution conditions, photochemical processes and interdependencies of ozone and its major precursors. Results are shown for four mid- to high-latitude sites where different Pandora instruments were used. Comparisons with a well calibrated double-grating Brewer spectrometer over a period of more than a year in Greenbelt MD showed excellent agreement and a small bias of approximately 2 DU (or, 0.6%). This was constant with slant column ozone amount over the full range of observed solar zenith angles (15-80), indicating adequate Pandora stray light correction. A small (1-2%) seasonal difference was found, consistent with sensitivity studies showing that the Pandora spectral fitting TCO retrieval has a temperature dependence of 1% per 3K, with an underestimation in temperature (e.g., during summer) resulting in an underestimation of TCO. Pandora agreed well with Aura-OMI (Ozone Measuring Instrument) satellite data, with average residuals of <1% at the different sites when the OMI view was within 50 km from the Pandora location and OMI-measured cloud fraction was <0.2. The frequent and continuous measurements by Pandora revealed significant short-term (hourly) temporal changes in TCO, not possible to capture by sun-synchronous satellites, such as OMI, alone.

Ozone↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗

NASA NTRS2014

Adjoint Methods for Adjusting Three-Dimensional Atmosphere and Surface Properties to Fit Multi-Angle/Multi-Pixel Polarimetric Measurements

This paper derives an efficient procedure for using the three-dimensional (3D) vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) to adjust atmosphere and surface properties and improve their fit with multi-angle/multi-pixel radiometric and polarimetric measurements of scattered sunlight. The proposed adjoint method uses the 3D VRTE to compute the measurement misfit function and the adjoint 3D VRTE to compute its gradient with respect to all unknown parameters. In the remote sensing problems of interest, the scalar-valued misfit function quantifies agreement with data as a function of atmosphere and surface properties, and its gradient guides the search through this parameter space. Remote sensing of the atmosphere and surface in a three-dimensional region may require thousands of unknown parameters and millions of data points. Many approaches would require calls to the 3D VRTE solver in proportion to the number of unknown parameters or measurements. To avoid this issue of scale, we focus on computing the gradient of the misfit function as an alternative to the Jacobian of the measurement operator. The resulting adjoint method provides a way to adjust 3D atmosphere and surface properties with only two calls to the 3D VRTE solver for each spectral channel, regardless of the number of retrieval parameters, measurement view angles or pixels. This gives a procedure for adjusting atmosphere and surface parameters that will scale to the large problems of 3D remote sensing. For certain types of multi-angle/multi-pixel polarimetric measurements, this encourages the development of a new class of three-dimensional retrieval algorithms with more flexible parametrizations of spatial heterogeneity, less reliance on data screening procedures, and improved coverage in terms of the resolved physical processes in the Earth's atmosphere.

linearization↗

NASA NTRS2014

Adjoint Methods for Adjusting Three-Dimensional Atmosphere and Surface Properties to Fit Multi-Angle Multi-Pixel Polarimetric Measurements

adjoint methods↗

NASA NTRS2014

Validation of Land Surface Temperature Products Derived from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Using Ground-based and Heritage Satellite Measurements

Thermal infrared satellite observations of the Earth's surface are widely used to retrieve Land Surface Temperature (LST) and monitor LST changes around the world. Since January 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) has provided daily observations of LST with a spatial resolution of 750 m at nadir. Comparison of the standard VIIRS LST product with the equivalent daily standard product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection-5 and with ground-based measurements over vegetated and inland water surfaces showed good agreement. Analysis indicated the accuracy and precision of the VIIRS product over these cover types was 0.2 K and 2.0 K respectively provided the analyses included appropriate compensation for any spatial heterogeneity in LST within the validation site. However, comparisons between in situ LST and the VIIRS and MODIS LST.

Land surface temperature↗

NASA NTRS2015

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

water↗

NASA NTRS2016

Early Spring Post-Fire Snow Albedo Dynamics in High Latitude Boreal Forests Using Landsat-8 OLI Data

Taking advantage of the improved radiometric resolution of Landsat-8 OLI which, unlike previous Landsat sensors, does not saturate over snow, the progress of fire recovery progress at the landscape scale (less than 100 m) is examined. High quality Landsat-8 albedo retrievals can now capture the true reflective and layered character of snow cover over a full range of land surface conditions and vegetation densities. This new capability particularly improves the assessment of post-fire vegetation dynamics across low- to high-burn severity gradients in Arctic and boreal regions in the early spring, when the albedos during recovery show the greatest variation. We use 30 m resolution Landsat-8 surface reflectances with concurrent coarser resolution (500 m) MODIS high quality full inversion surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Functions (BRDF) products to produce higher resolution values of surface albedo. The high resolution full expression shortwave blue sky albedo product performs well with an overall RMSE of 0.0267 between tower and satellite measures under both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. While the importance of post-fire albedo recovery can be discerned from the MODIS albedo product at regional and global scales, our study addresses the particular importance of early spring post-fire albedo recovery at the landscape scale by considering the significant spatial heterogeneity of burn severity, and the impact of snow on the early spring albedo of various vegetation recovery types. We found that variations in early spring albedo within a single MODIS gridded pixel can be larger than 0.6. Since the frequency and severity of wildfires in Arctic and boreal systems is expected to increase in the coming decades, the dynamics of albedo in response to these rapid surface changes will increasingly impact the energy balance and contribute to other climate processes and physical feedback mechanisms. Surface radiation products derived from Landsat-8 data will thus play an important role in characterizing the carbon cycle and ecosystem processes of high latitude systems.

Landsat-8 snow albedo↗

NASA NTRS2016

Airborne Measurements of Ozone and Other Trace Gases Captured by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) During the 2016 California Baseline Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS)

In October 2015, the Environmental Protection Agency lowered the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone (O3) from 75 ppbv to 70 ppbv. However, meeting the stricter air standards is a challenge for certain areas of California, like the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), where O3 levels are typically high due to topography, meteorology, and local emissions. Another factor potentially contributing to increased surface O3 is the trans-Pacific transport of O3 from Asia. The extent of which O3stems from local emissions or is transported across the Pacific, however, is unclear. The California Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS), a joint effort between the California Air Resource Board, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and San Jose State University, was conducted during the spring and summer of 2016 in an attempt to answer this question.Nearly 10 science flights were carried out by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) between June and August 2016, based out of the NASA Ames Research Center. A summary of airborne O3, CO2, CH4, H2O, formaldehyde (HCHO), and 3D wind measurements will be presented. AJAX flights connect the fixed-location measurements at Visalia (TOPAZ ozone lidar) and Bodega Bay (ozonesondes), while exploring the spatial heterogeneity of O3 concentrations across California and at various offshore locations. Preliminary analyses of these flights will investigate connections between offshore O3 and Central Valley O3. Vertical profiles, time series, and tracer-tracer correlations will be employed to identify the sources of O3 during these flights.

Iraci, Laura T.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Microwave Remote Sensing of Snow: Advances over Ice Sheet, Land, and Sea Ice

Satellite microwave radiometers have enabled us to observe the cryosphere and its changes. A variety of algorithms have been developed since the late 1970s. These convert observed microwave radiation into geophysical, glaciological properties relevant to study ice sheets’ snow accumulation and melt, terrestrial snow water equivalent and freeze/thaw state, and various sea ice cover characteristics like extent, concentration, and thickness. In spite of the continuous availability of satellite microwave radiometers for the past 40 years, potential for advancing our understanding of the relationship between microwave radiation and snow/ice properties still exists. Original empirical algorithms have matured and are becoming more physically based. This presentation offers insights into some advances made during the past 10 years in monitoring ice sheet, terrestrial snow, and sea ice. These advances made it possible to provide new, more reliable climate-related variables to the community for the satellite era using the typical 18-37 GHz frequency range (e.g., retrievals of grain size profiles in Antarctica, snow cover stratification, and therefore accumulation with applications to climate studies). Recent NASA instruments have recorded low microwave frequencies (at 1.4 GHz). These observations have a large penetration depth, they emanate from deep into the ice, where properties including temperature are very stable. Nonetheless, it has been found at both Dome C, Antarctica and Summit, Greenland that changes in surface snow properties significantly influence these observations. Compared to ice sheets, terrestrial snow and sea ice present higher spatial heterogeneities. Over land, presence of canopy and lakes, though with known locations, add ambiguities in the retrievals of snow properties. Over sea ice, ridges, leads, changes in salinity, and sea ice drift augment further the level of difficulty in obtaining robust geophysical properties. Assessing the quality of satellite retrievals, often requiring field activities, is a necessary step in designing the next generation of microwave algorithms to monitor changes in the cryosphere.

Brucker, Ludovic↗

NASA NTRS2020

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗