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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Presenting a Model to Predict Changing Snow Albedo for Improving Photovoltaic Performance Simulation

As photovoltaic (PV) deployment increases worldwide, PV systems are being installed more frequently in locations that experience snow cover. The higher albedo of snow, relative to the ground, increases the performance of PV systems in northern and high-altitude locations by reflecting more light onto the PV modules. Accurate modeling of the snow’s albedo can improve estimates of PV system production. Typical modeling of snow albedo uses a simple two-value model that sets the albedo high when snow is present, and low when snow is not present. However, snow albedo changes over time as snow settles and melts and a binary model does not account for transitional changes, which can be significant. Here, we present and validate a model for estimating snow albedo as it changes over time. The model is simple enough to only require daily snow depth and hourly average temperature data, but can be improved through the addition of site-specific factors, when available. We validate this model to quantify its ability to more accurately predict snow albedo and compare the model’s performance against satellite imagery-based methods for obtaining historical albedo data. In addition, we perform modeling using the System Advisor Model (SAM) to show the impact of changes in albedo on energy modeling for PV systems. Overall, our albedo model has a significantly improved ability to predict the solar insolation on PV modules in real time, especially on bifacial PV modules where reflected irradiance plays a larger role in energy production.

Pike, Christopher (ORCID:0000000155888033)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of the Latest 22 Ne+ α Reaction Rates on Nucleosynthesis in Massive Stars and Galactic Chemical Evolution

In massive stars (initial mass of ≳9 M ⊙ ), the weak s- (slow neutron capture) process produces elements between Fe and Zr, enriching the Galaxy with these elements through core-collapse supernova explosions. The weak s-process nucleosynthesis is driven by neutrons produced in the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction during convective He core and C shell burning. The yields of heavy elements thus depend on the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and the competitive 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rates, which are dominated by several narrow-resonance reactions. While the accuracy of these rates has been under debate for decades, recent experimental efforts, including ours, drastically reduced these uncertainties. In this work, we use a set of 280 massive star nucleosynthesis models calculated using different 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg rates and a galactic chemical evolution (GCE) study to probe their impact on the weak s-process elemental abundances in the Galaxy. The GCE was computed with the OMEGA+ code, using the new sets of stellar yields with different 22 Ne+α rates. From GCE, we find that these rates are causing up to 0.45 dex of variations in the [Cu/Fe], [Ga/Fe], and [Ge/Fe] ratios predicted at solar metallicity. The greatest impact on the stellar nucleosynthesis and GCE results derives from uncertainties in the (α, n) strength (ωγ (α,n) ) of the E x = 11.32 MeV resonance. We show that variations observed in the GCE calculations for weak s-process elements become negligibly smaller than dispersions found in observations once the ωγ (α,n) is accurately determined within the uncertainty of 10%–20% (typically reported experimental errors for the resonance) in future nuclear physics experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Encounter of the Parker Solar Probe and a Comet-like Object Near the Sun: Model Predictions and Measurements

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) aims to explore the nascent solar wind close to the Sun. Meanwhile, PSP is also expected to encounter small objects like comets and asteroids. Here, we survey the ephemerides to find the chance of a recent encounter and then model the interaction between released dusty plasmas and solar wind plasmas. On 2019 September 2, a comet-like object, the 322P/Solar and Heliosphere Observatory, just passed its perihelion flying to a heliocentric distance of 0.12 au and swept by PSP at a relative distance as close as 0.025 au. We present the dynamics of the dust particles released from 322P, forming a curved dust tail. Along the path of PSP in the simulated inner heliosphere, the states of plasma and magnetic field are sampled and illustrated, with the magnetic field sequences from simulation results being compared directly with the in situ measurements from PSP. Through the comparison, we suggest that 322P might be at a deficient activity level releasing limited dusty plasmas on its way to becoming a "rock comet." We also present images of solar wind streamers as recorded by the Wide-field Imager for Solar Probe Plus, showing an indication of dust bombardment for the images superposed with messy trails. We observe from the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph that 322P was transiting from a dimming region to a relatively bright streamer during its perihelion passage, and perform a simulation to confirm that 322P was flying from relatively faster to slower solar wind streams, modifying the local plasma states of the streams.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Device Parameters for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells from Electronic Structure Calculations to Reproduce Experiment.

Given that improvements to the power-conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have slowed in recent years, a means to accurately predict the device parameters yielded by trial dyes in silico, without having to synthesize them, would be extremely valuable to speed up the design process. Currently, the best-performing methods of calculating device parameters rely on a set of experimentally determined kinetic coefficients. In practice, it is very difficult to measure these kinetic parameters accurately, limiting the overall accuracy of such predictive methods. This work proposes a model to obtain key parameters such as J(SC), V-OC, and PCE using only the results from density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT calculations, noting that rates of electron-transfer steps are ultimately linked to the electronic structure of the dye center dot center dot center dot TiO2 working electrode. Six organic DSSC dyes from dissimilar chemical classes (L0, L1, L2, WS-2, WS-92, and C281) were chosen to demonstrate the power of this approach. Their a priori known experimentally determined device performance metrics served to validate our predictions. The greatest absolute error in our predicted PCE values was 0.36% relative to the experiment, while the greatest fractional error was 0.042. This indicates that the proposed model offers a dramatic improvement on previous predictive methods for DSSC device parameters, both in accuracy and in consistency. Moreover, such a predictive model has great potential to be applied to other photovoltaic applications, further enabling the design of novel, highly efficient photoactive materials.

density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Wind Loading and Instability in Solar Tracking PV Arrays

Wind loading and the fluctuating pressure loads it creates on PV panel surfaces are associated with multiple degradation mechanisms and failures. Modest wind speeds create reversing loads that can initiate cell cracks and weather cracked cells. Stronger wind speeds and extreme weather events can lead to larger scale forces and the aerodynamic instability known as torsional galloping. All these effects are dependent on the complex coupling between wind speed, panel orientation, and a myriad of other hardware and site-specific factors. In this work, we present the latest developments from our work to build an open-source, high-performance computing (HPC) fluid dynamics solver to predict and mitigate these effects. This simulation package allows users to easily specify different array layouts, solar-tracking angles, panel geometries, and weather conditions before automatically generating a refined computational mesh and solving for the unsteady loading on each panel surface. Small domains (e.g., a single panel row in isolation) can be solved on a modern laptop, while larger domains or very high-fidelity studies can be solved on distributed or HPC resources with minimal modifications to the underlying problem specification. We present preliminary case studies obtained using this simulation package and highlight how increased wind speeds combined with sub-optimal tracking angles can exacerbate degradation drivers.

aerodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early Solar Wind and Dynamo Magnetic Field Topology Predictions for (16) Psyche and Other Asteroids

Abstract Asteroid (16) Psyche is a metal‐rich body that might record an ancient coherent magnetization if some relict crust or mantle is preserved. Herein, we use magnetohydrodynamic simulations to predict (16) Psyche's field topology for several distinct pathways: (i) an early solar wind‐induced magnetization imparted after a larger body was impacted, forming the present‐day asteroid, (ii) a core dynamo magnetization imparted in an asteroid that is either presently largely intact or was a rubble pile, and (iii) magnetization in the turbulent solar nebula disk. For pathway (i) we find the field to be predominantly dipolar and spin axis‐aligned. For pathway (ii) we find the field to be either dipolar and spin axis‐misaligned, or highly multipolar. We also find that (iii) a field produced earlier before the solar nebula cleared, would be highly multipolar. In cases (i) and (ii) we also place constraints on the field strength. Simple detection of a magnetic field without constraining its topology and temporal variability would be insufficient to confirm a remanent source, due to the influence of the present‐day solar wind, electromagnetic induction, and (16) Psyche's high obliquity. For sufficiently strong fields however, the field topology and orientation may reveal key observable consequences of the nature and history of (16) Psyche. Our framework is also broadly applicable to the study of magnetic fields from other asteroids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised Azimuth Estimation of Solar Arrays in Low-Resolution Satellite Imagery through Semantic Segmentation and Hough Transform

This paper explains the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to segment solar panels in a satellite image containing solar arrays, and extract associated metadata from the arrays. A novel unsupervised technique is introduced to estimate the azimuth of each individual solar panel from the predicted mask of the convolutional neural network. This pipeline was developed with the aim of extracting necessary metadata for a solar installation, using only a set of latitude–longitude coordinates. Azimuth prediction results for 669 individual solar installations associated with 387 sites located across the United States are provided. A mean average error and median average error of 21.65 degrees and 1.0 degrees were obtained, respectively, when predicting the azimuth of the solar fleet data set, with about 80% of the results within an error of zero degrees of the ground truth azimuth value and about 85% within an error of 25 degrees. The predicted azimuth was then used to estimate the energy conversion of the solar arrays. Results show a 90.9 and 90.6 R-squared value for estimating alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) energy, respectively, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.70% in estimating the alternating current (AC) energy using the fully automated algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comprehensive assessment of metrology techniques for heliostat efficiency and performance evaluation

Concentrating solar power plants, specifically central receiver type systems and their heliostat field, are struggling with negative reputation in the USA, due to perceived underperformance and reliability issues. This is in part due to a lack of standards for performance assessment as well as overly simplified techno-economical models. A better understanding of influences and losses along the solar radiation path from the sun, across the solar collector to the receiver, increases the fidelity of heliostat efficiency assessment as well as solar field performance predictions. Such data are currently scarce and require a complete set of metrology capabilities to evaluate direct solar irradiance, sun shape, atmospheric attenuation, reflectance, collector shape, slope errors and total beam dispersion. In preparation for establishing a 3rd party metrology platform in collaboration with Sandia National Labs, NLR conducted a scoping study on available metrology. We present an extensive overview of techniques and commercial systems for each category. Our work includes an analysis to increase understanding of strengths and limitations of the many techniques used for surface shape and slope measurement. This applies to a controlled, indoor or outdoor laboratory environment assessing a single heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Test for the Origin of Solar Mass Black Holes

Solar-mass black holes with masses in the range of ~1–2.5 M ⊙ are not expected from conventional stellar evolution, but can be produced naturally via neutron star (NS) implosions induced by capture of small primordial black holes (PBHs) or from accumulation of some varieties of particle dark matter. We argue that a unique signature of such “transmuted” solar-mass BHs is that their mass distribution would follow that of the NSs. This would be distinct from the mass function of black holes in the solar-mass range predicted either by conventional stellar evolution or early Universe PBH production. We propose that analysis of the solar-mass BH population mass distribution in a narrow mass window of ~1–2.5 M ⊙ can provide a simple yet powerful test of the origin of these BHs. Recent LIGO/VIRGO gravitational wave (GW) observations of the binary merger events GW190425 and GW190814 are consistent with a BH mass in the range ~1.5–2.6 M ⊙ . Though these results have fueled speculation on dark matter-transmuted solar-mass BHs, we demonstrate that it is unlikely that the origin of these particular events stems from NS implosions. Data from upcoming GW observations will be able to distinguish between solar-mass BHs and NSs with high confidence. This capability will facilitate and enhance the efficacy of our proposed test.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intermediate-mass Early-type Disk Galaxies in the Virgo Cluster. II. Near-Infrared Spectra and Evidence for Differences in Evolution

We discuss near-infrared (NIR) slit spectra of six early-type disk galaxies in the Virgo Cluster that were examined previously at visible/red wavelengths. Despite having similar intrinsic luminosities, colors, and morphologies, the NIR spectrophotometric properties of these galaxies indicate that they are not a homogeneous ensemble differing only in terms of luminosity-weighted age and metallicity. While the depth of the CO(2,0) band is consistent with the centers of these galaxies having solar or slightly sub-solar luminosity-weighted metallicities, galaxy-to-galaxy variations in the depth of the Na i 2.21 μm doublet are found, with Na i2.21 μm lines in three galaxies (NGC 4491, NGC 4584, and NGC 4620) that are deeper than those predicted for a solar chemical mixture and a solar-neighborhood mass function. In contrast, the Ca i2.26 μm triplet shows good galaxy-to-galaxy agreement but tends to be deeper than the model prediction. Considering the depth of the NaD lines, the deep Na i2.21 μm lines are tentatively attributed to a bottom-heavy mass function. This is counter to observed trends between mass function slope and velocity dispersion, and so the possibility of a super-solar [Na/Fe] is also discussed. Two of the three galaxies with deep Na i 2.21 μm (NGC 4584 and NGC 4620) have Sérsic exponents that are consistent with a classical bulge. As for NGC 4491, its central NIR spectrum contains prominent emission lines. The relative strengths of Brγ and H{sub 2}S(1), the presence of [Fe ii] emission, and the mid-infrared spectral-energy distribution are all consistent with intense recent star formation near the center of that galaxy. The NIR spectrum of NGC 4584 is devoid of line emission in the NIR, suggesting that star formation does not power the emission detected at visible wavelengths from that galaxy. Wavelengths that contain the Ballick–Ramsey C{sub 2} band at 1.76 μm are matched by moderately metal-poor E-MILES model spectra with an age of 2 Gyr. The radial age trends in these galaxies are in the opposite sense to those in late-type disk galaxies, and it is concluded that they have evolved in a cluster environment for at least several Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗
DOE OSTI2022

In‐Silico Device Performance Prediction of Cosensitizer Dye Pairs for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells

Abstract Endeavors in the field of dye‐sensitized solar cells (DSCs) have shown great promise when adopting a data‐driven approach to materials discovery, such as successful molecular‐scale predictions of light‐harvesting chromophores. However, predictions of DSC dyes would become much more sophisticated if a molecular‐to‐macroscopic DSC device prediction methodology existed. Thereby, a fully computational pipeline is presented that predicts device‐performance parameters of DSCs which contain varying dye combinations. Optimal pairing of complementary dyes is identified via a data‐driven workflow that affords cosensitized DSCs with maximum power‐conversion efficiencies. Six high‐performing DSC dyes are paired with partner dyes that are screened from a database of 8488 compounds using sequential heuristic filters. Existing models that predict short‐circuit‐current density ( J SC ) and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) parameters are adapted to predict singly sensitized and cosensitized DSC performance. The predictions for J sc values of singly sensitized devices match experimental literature values with comparable accuracy to more computationally costly methods. Five out of six dye pairings are predicted to have greater J SC values when cosensitized compared to their corresponding singly sensitized devices, including two pairs that show strong J sc boosts of +13% and +12% when cosensitized. Thus, the prospect of an entirely in‐silico prediction pipeline for DSC performance that can be used to realize the fully automated design of optimized cosensitized DSCs is demonstrated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory study of the failed torus mechanism in arched, line-tied, magnetic flux ropes

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are some of the most energetic and violent events in our solar system. The prediction and understanding of CMEs are of particular importance due to the impact that they can have on Earth-based satellite systems and, in extreme cases, ground-based electronics. CMEs often occur when long-lived magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) anchored to the solar surface destabilize and erupt away from the Sun. One potential cause for these eruptions is an ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability, such as the kink or torus instability. Previous experiments on the magnetic reconnection experiment revealed a class of MFRs that were torus-unstable but kink-stable, which failed to erupt. These “failed-tori” went through a process similar to Taylor relaxation, where the toroidal current was redistributed before the eruption ultimately failed. Herein we have investigated this behavior through additional diagnostics that measure the current distribution at the foot points and the energy distribution before and after an event. These measurements indicate that ideal MHD effects are sufficient to explain the energy distribution changes during failed torus events. This excludes Taylor relaxation as a possible mechanism of current redistribution during an event. A new model that only requires non-ideal effects in a thin layer above the electrodes is presented to explain the observed phenomena. This work broadens our understanding of the stability of MFRs and the mechanism behind the failed torus through the improved prediction of the torus instability and through new diagnostics to measure the energy inventory and current profile at the foot points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evidence for the 3D Radiative Effects of Boundary-Layer Clouds From Observations of Direct and Diffuse Surface Solar Fluxes

Numerical experiments have revealed the importance of horizontal transport of light in the presence of clouds (“3D effects”), with consequences for climate, weather, and solar resource availability predictions. Yet, analysis of 3D effects from observations remain sparse because of the difficulty to isolate the effect of horizontal transport in radiation measurements. In this study, we provide observational evidence for 3D effects based on the direct-diffuse partition of surface solar fluxes. It is compared to outputs from the ecRad radiative transfer scheme run on retrieved cloud profiles. Furthermore, the direct-beam calculation takes careful account of the field-of-view of the pyrheliometer to ensure consistency between observed and modeled direct fluxes. Only the solver that accounts for 3D effects is able to reproduce the observed mean direct-diffuse partition as a function of solar zenith angle and cloud cover, in particular at large solar zenith angles where cloud sides intercept most of the direct beam.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗