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MULTICOM2 open-source protein structure prediction system powered by deep learning and distance prediction

Protein structure prediction is an important problem in bioinformatics and has been studied for decades. However, there are still few open-source comprehensive protein structure prediction packages publicly available in the field. In this paper, we present our latest open-source protein tertiary structure prediction system—MULTICOM2, an integration of template-based modeling (TBM) and template-free modeling (FM) methods. The template-based modeling uses sequence alignment tools with deep multiple sequence alignments to search for structural templates, which are much faster and more accurate than MULTICOM1. The template-free (ab initio or de novo) modeling uses the inter-residue distances predicted by DeepDist to reconstruct tertiary structure models without using any known structure as template. In the blind CASP14 experiment, the average TM-score of the models predicted by our server predictor based on the MULTICOM2 system is 0.720 for 58 TBM (regular) domains and 0.514 for 38 FM and FM/TBM (hard) domains, indicating that MULTICOM2 is capable of predicting good tertiary structures across the board. It can predict the correct fold for 76 CASP14 domains (95% regular domains and 55% hard domains) if only one prediction is made for a domain. The success rate is increased to 3% for both regular and hard domains if five predictions are made per domain. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the pure template-free structure modeling method on both TBM and FM targets is very close to the combination of template-based and template-free modeling methods. This demonstrates that the distance-based template-free modeling method powered by deep learning can largely replace the traditional template-based modeling method even on TBM targets that TBM methods used to dominate and therefore provides a uniform structure modeling approach to any protein. Finally, on the 38 CASP14 FM and FM/TBM hard domains, MULTICOM2 server predictors (MULTICOM-HYBRID, MULTICOM-DEEP, MULTICOM-DIST) were ranked among the top 20 automated server predictors in the CASP14 experiment. After combining multiple predictors from the same research group as one entry, MULTICOM-HYBRID was ranked no. 5. The source code of MULTICOM2 is freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗

How to Build a Quantum Supercomputer: Scaling from Hundreds to Millions of Qubits

In the span of four decades, quantum computation has evolved from an intellectual curiosity to a potentially realizable technology. Today, small-scale demonstrations have become possible for quantum algorithmic primitives on hundreds of physical qubits and proof-of-principle error-correction on a single logical qubit. Nevertheless, despite significant progress and excitement, the path toward a full-stack scalable technology is largely unknown. There are significant outstanding quantum hardware, fabrication, software architecture, and algorithmic challenges that are either unresolved or overlooked. These issues could seriously undermine the arrival of utility-scale quantum computers for the foreseeable future. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of these scaling challenges. We show how the road to scaling could be paved by adopting existing semiconductor technology to build much higher-quality qubits, employing system engineering approaches, and performing distributed quantum computation within heterogeneous high-performance computing infrastructures. These opportunities for research and development could unlock certain promising applications, in particular, efficient quantum simulation/learning of quantum data generated by natural or engineered quantum systems. To estimate the true cost of such promises, we provide a detailed resource and sensitivity analysis for classically hard quantum chemistry calculations on surface-code error-corrected quantum computers given current, target, and desired hardware specifications based on superconducting qubits, accounting for a realistic distribution of errors. Furthermore, we argue that, to tackle industry-scale classical optimization and machine learning problems in a cost-effective manner, heterogeneous quantum-probabilistic computing with custom-designed accelerators should be considered as a complementary path toward scalability.

Mohseni, Masoud↗

Hardware, methodology and applications of 2 + D backscatter Mössbauer spectroscopy with simultaneous x-ray and γ-ray detection

Abstract A unique method is presented for the acquisition and analysis of 57 Fe backscatter Mössbauer spectra with simultaneous detection of the resonant 14.4 keV γ -rays and the characteristic 6.4 keV x-rays, using a custom-built multi-parameter analyser constructed on the basis of commercial analogue to digital converters and high-speed digital latches. The system allows for the simultaneous registration of Doppler-modulation velocities and photon energies, with up to 4096 and 8192 digital channels respectively. This arrangement is in contrast to most related systems, which detect at a single narrow energy window per detector. Samples of arbitrary atomic structure, morphology and surface topography can be studied without altering the setup or the analysis procedure, provided that the samples are at least micrometre sized. The hardware and software that are used to acquire data with minimal dead time are described and the custom and self-contained methods for post-measurement energy discrimination, background correction and velocity-axis folding are discussed. The data are fit using a general Hamiltonian model for the nuclear energy levels of 57 Fe and a quantum mechanical description of the angular momentum coupling is utilised, with consideration of the crystalline and chemical disorder of the sample under examination. Three examples of distinct magnetic systems, with thicknesses ranging from 5 μ m to 6 mm, that were studied using this method are presented, these are: an amorphous CoFeB-based ribbon with ultra-soft coercivity for high-frequency applications, magnetically hard Nd-Fe-B thick films on Si substrates, examined in both as-deposited and annealed states, and a sample from the nickel-rich iron meteorite NWA 6259 that contains the atomically ordered, elevated coercivity, L 1 0 phase of FeNi, tetrataenite. The wide applicability and usefulness of this method is thus demonstrated on three distinct sample morphologies that required little to no surface preparation prior to examination.

Engineering↗

Performance Before and After Irradiation of Pixelated 3D Silicon Sensors for the HL-LHC CMS Tracker

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) particle accelerator at European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN) will be shut down starting in 2026 to achieve the High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) upgrade. The upgrade will allow for higher fluences, in order to increase the probability of detecting increasingly rare particles, and to obtain higher precision measurements of known particles. To accommodate the new accelerator conditions, many aspects of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector will be upgraded; of particular interest for this thesis are the silicon pixel detectors located in the inner tracker. These will be replaced and upgraded to accommodate the higher fluences of the HL-LHC upgrade, as well as to replace existing sensors which have sustained radiation damage. In order for the new sensors to operate under high luminosity conditions, they must be increasingly radiation hard, and in order to detect rare particles, they must be increasingly more precise. The performance of one Centro Nacional de Microelectronica (CNM) 3D silicon sensor before and after undergoing irradiation at fluences similar to those which will be observed at the HL-LHC was investigated to determine radiation hardness and precision. Data was collected at Fermi National Laboratory (Fermilab), in the Fermi National Laboratory Test Beam Facility (FTBF) silicon tracker telescope, which can be used to determine the number of particles, and tracks made by high energy protons passing through. The sensor was also irradiated at Fermilab in the Irradiation Test Area (ITA). Prior to data collection a tuning procedure is carried out to determine ideal bias voltage operating conditions, mask noisy and dead pixels, adjust to the ideal threshold, and map sensor gain. Data is then collected at the FTBF, where the sensor is installed in the center of the FTBF silicon telescope. Variables, including angle and bias voltage, are varied throughout data collection. Data is then processed using an alignment software to determine the exact telescope geometry, along with the tracks which were observed passing through the sensor and telescope. Sensor performance was found to be comparable before and after irradiation, with irradiated results showing slightly lower efficiencies and cluster sizes. Position resolution is comparable both before and after irradiation, and similar distributions of cluster shape are observed. After irradiation, the sensor shows increasing collected charge with bias, an indication of increased width of the depletion region. Peak charge pre-irradiation is higher than post-irradiation peak charge, indicating the irradiated results are not taken under fully-depleted conditions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded-aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consist of 80-channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey data set between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprise >90% of all BAT data by volume and allow for the tracking of long-term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey data set has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis Python package, a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, open-source pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources, including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the Python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data of the Crab Nebula, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ~18 yr of BAT survey data to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GPR Robotic Assisted Non-Destructive Evaluation of Concrete Structures - 20196

Reinforced concrete structures are always under exposure of internal or external deteriorations due to many factors such as environmental, nuclear radiation or even construction deficiencies. The use of nondestructive test is one of the reliable methods to inspect structural members. In this case, GPR has a good capability to detect inside deteriorations of concrete structures. However, in many cases it is hard to inspect structural members by hand due to safety issues or inaccessibility. Thus, an alternative way to reduce such risks is to employ robot to carry nondestructive equipment. In this research, twelve reinforced concrete RC beams (8 x 16 x 96, width, height and length) are cast in the lab. Three RC beams have no defect and nine others various defects such as corrosion, de-bonded bars, void, delamination and honeycombing. The one-point load is applied at the center of the RC beam. The loading level is carried out at three levels: 50%, 75% and 100% of maximum load and total load-displacement diagram are performed. The load is held at each level and the robotic GPR is used to scan the side of RC beams. Then, RADAN software is employed to find out any defects at different loading conditions and visualize the crack propagation. The RADAN results show that the pattern of crack propagation for corrosion and debonding are same. Also, the load-displacement results present that inside defect cause reduction of load-capacity of RC beam. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Visualization Quality Assessment

Understanding how inaccuracies in visualizations affect users’ perception and understanding of scientific data is hard. Inaccuracies in visualizations are quite common and could arise from a range of sources such as errors in the original dataset arising from compression artifacts, errors in the capturing device, noise during transmission of the data, effects due to the algorithm being used to convert data to visualization images, images generated from neural networks, and sources we have yet to discover. Many image quality assessment metrics have been developed to quantify image errors. However, these are usually focused on “natural images” rather than visualizations of scientific data. Common image quality assessment metrics (IQAs) include MSE, PSNR, perceptual metrics such SSIM, FSIM as well as perceptual metrics using deep learning approaches. However, a critical part of understanding how errors are perceived by humans, and subsequently developing more accurate quality assessment metrics, is through user evaluation studies. The goal of this software is to develop a visualization quality assessment (VQA) process that will enable the generation of VQAs that can be used to quantify errors in scientific data visualizations. The VQA development process will include software to support user evaluation experimental design, analysis of visualization differences against standard quality metrics, and the ability to develop additional VQA metrics specific to scientific visualization images.

Grosset, Andre↗

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be ${12.39}_{-0.98}^{+1.30}$ km and ${2.072}_{-0.066}^{+0.067}$ M ⊙ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is ${\mathrm{log}}_{10}(T\,[{\rm{K}}])={5.99}_{-0.06}^{+0.05}$ for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Furthermore, our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Transient Photocurrent From High-Voltage Vertical GaN Diodes Irradiated With Electrons: Experiments and Simulations

Radiation-hard high-voltage vertical GaN p-n diodes are being developed for use in power electronics subjected to ionizing radiation. Here, we present a comparison of the measured and simulated photocurrent response of diodes exposed to ionizing irradiation with 70 keV and 20 MeV electrons at dose rates in the range of 1.4x10 7 - 5.0x10 8 rad(GaN)/s. The simulations correctly predict the trend in measured steady-state photocurrent and agree with experimental results within a factor of 2. Furthermore, simulations of the transient photocurrent response to dose rates with uniform and non-uniform ionization depth profiles uncover the physical processes involved that cannot be otherwise experimentally observed due to orders of magnitude larger RC time constant of the test circuit. The simulations were performed using an Exploratory Physics Development code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The code offers the capability to include defect physics under more general conditions, not included in commercially available software packages, extending the applicability of the simulations to different types of radiation environments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Theoretical and Phenomenological Studies of the Nucleon Structure in High Energy Reactions

The understanding of the internal structure of the proton and other strongly interacting particles is at the forefront of modern nuclear physics research. Generalized Parton Distribution Functions (GPDs) are a powerful tool to advance the understanding of hadron structure. In addition to the information about the one- dimensional collinear momentum distributions of partons (quarks, anti-quarks, and gluons) known from studies of high energy deep-inelastic reactions, GPDs also carry information on the distribution of partons in the transverse plane, and allow us in this way to access the three-dimensional structure of the nucleon. GPDs can be studied in hard-exclusive reactions and contain also information on the energy-momentum tensor form factors which will allow us to gain insights on quantities like pressure or angular momentum distribution inside the nucleon. The goal of this thesis is to deepen our understanding of the three-dimensional structure of the nucleon. We investigate energy-momentum tensor form factors and densities, and all leading-twist GPDs in the bag model. This quark model provides a consistent theoretical framework to investigate many general concepts that have recently attracted interest, and allows one to study insightful limits like the large-Nc limit, heavy-quark limit or the non-relativistic limit. Another important aspect of this thesis is the discussion of the monopole and quadrupole contributions to the angular momentum density. Finally, the description of pseudoscalar meson production in exclusive processes in terms of GPDs is discussed in the Goloskokov-Kroll model and implemented in the PARTONS framework, a software development project which will provide direct support for experiments at the Jefferson National Lab and the future Electron-Ion Collider.

Tezgin, Kemal↗

Real-Time Drilling Optimization System for Improved Overall Rate of Penetration and Reduced Cost Per Foot in Geothermal Drilling

The key to success in geothermal drilling is economic feasibility, and a major cost in the development of geothermal resources is the actual drilling of the wells. In this project, a real-time drilling optimization system for geothermal drilling was developed. The system couples three individual components while drilling. The first component is a drill stem vibration analysis model, the second is Mechanical Specific Energy (MSE) analyses, and the third is a detailed PDC Rate of Penetration (ROP) drill bit model for optimum RPM and WOB combinations. The benefit of the coupled system is that the range of WOB and RPM could be selected to avoid drill stem vibrations. Secondly, MSE is used as an efficiency measure and the detailed PDC drill bit model ensures the drill bit does not endure temperatures that exceed the temperature at which the PDC cutters experience accelerated wear. The new detailed PDC bit model is based on rock/bit interaction that physically tracks the PDC cutter wear flats as the bit drills ahead giving the capability to calculate the temperature being generated underneath the worn cutters to better advise on operational parameters to avoid accelerated cutter wear and failure and to ensure that operational parameters are applied so that overall ROP is maximized. By combining the drill stem vibrations and the detailed PDC bit cutter wear and “safe” non-accelerated cutter wear temperature and optimum ranges of operating parameters, it results in higher ROP and lower cost drilling. Single cutter PDC testing performed in different lithologies at Sandia was utilized to verify the PDC cutter forces and depth of cut for new and worn cutters. Based on single cutter PDC temperature modeling, verification using single cutter data from the testing done by National Oilwell Varco (NOV) was performed. Sandia’s Hard-Rock Drilling Facility (HRDF) was utilized to test different drill bit configurations with different cutter designs and wear status with different induced modes of vibration to obtain the critical bit RPM/WOB ranges resulting in ineffective drilling and low ROP. The collected test data were further used to verify and calibrate the full hole PDC ROP model that was developed based on single cutter interaction data. A full coupled drill stem vibration model was formulated and verified with geothermal field data from the Chocolate Mountain Aerial Gunnery Range (CMAGR). A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed using Tkinter library in the computer programming language Python, which integrates all the developed models in one system. The developed system consists mainly of the PDC ROP model, PDC bit wear model, PDC cutter temperature model, Mechanical Specific Energy (MSE) model, and drillstring vibration model integrated into one system. The developed system can be used for both, post well analysis and real-time optimization using different criteria such as ROP maximization or MSE minimization. The software uses Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) to find optimum values for operational parameters based on last foot drilled while avoiding the drillstring vibration and cutter temperature critical operating parameters.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Application of Gaussian Bayes classifier to differentiate chlorine-based chemical agents

The Portable Isotopic Neutron Spectroscopy (PINS) is a commercialized system developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to examine chemical warfare agents (CWA) non-destructively, utilizing Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis (PGNAA) techniques. The PINS system takes advantage of a high-resolution gamma-ray spectrum from a mechanically-cooled high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. One of the difficult technical challenges is to discriminate the chlorine-based chemical agents. Especially, CN, CNB, CNS and CG have similar chemical compositions to make it hard to discriminate them with a higher confidence. Current identification algorithms for PINS systems with 252-Cf sources have been improved and updated continuously as more field data became available, and new algorithms was studied to complement the current algorithms by adopting the Gaussian Bayes classifier. These new algorithms were intended to be applied to a subset of chlorine-based chemical agents, and their main goal is discriminate CN, CNB, CNS and CG with their ratios of the chlorine neutron inelastic 1763keV peak to the chlorine thermal neutron capture 1959keV peak, which is referred to as the “Cl i/c” or “clic” ratio in this study. The Cl i/c ratios were assumed to follow Gaussian distributions with the means and the standard deviations unique to their corresponding chemical agents. The prior probabilities of these four chemical agents were optimized with a collection of field data to achieve the best performance in terms of precision or positive predictive value (PPV). Finally, their posterior probabilities as functions of the Cl i/c ratio were implemented in the current version of PINS analysis software in order to be tested with more field data.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Efficient Clustering of Software Vulnerabilities using Self Organizing Map (SOM)

The common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVE) database was created with a mission to ``identify, define, and catalog publicly disclosed cybersecurity vulnerabilities''. This rich body of information can be used to enable rapid and efficient response to secure and defend cyber operations and protect critical cyber infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to develop a visual analytics tool to enable deep analysis of CVEs using unsupervised clustering techniques. We enhance our analysis by first mapping CVEs to hierarchical-classes in Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE) using information in the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). Both the mapping and the numerical representation of CVEs are enabled by V2W-BERT, which uses natural language processing of the extensive information in NVD to generate a large tabular database of 137,226 CVE entries from 1999 to 2020, where each CVE is represented by a vector of 768 numerical features. The vectorized data is processed by Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), which is an unsupervised machine learning technique for dimensionality reduction, visual representation and clustering. Using a Torus map of 6417 units, we achieve ~10-fold data compression of ~140k CVEs using SOM. The trained map is further clustered using standard K-means clustering into 138 clusters of CVEs. We conducted a brief investigation of the rich mapping of CVEs to best-matching-units to K-means clusters, as well as CVEs to CWEs. For example, this novel mapping provided insight into the role of CWE-59 and CWE-264 in several CVEs that is otherwise hard to explore in the original data. We conclude that our this novel approach will not only enable deep analysis of the complex relationships between CVEs and CWEs, but also a mechanism to quickly respond to and design mitigation actions for rapidly evolving vulnerabilities that have not been mapped to existing CWEs.

Panchal, Khyati↗

FY20 Proxy App Suite Release: Report for ECP Proxy App Project Milestone ADCD-504-10

Version 4.0 of the ECP Proxy App Suite is practically unchanged from the previous release. The current set of proxies has proven useful for many aspects of benchmarking and co-design and we see little reason to alter the suite. Although there have been few changes to the ECP suite, the team has been hard at work in other areas. In the area of Machine Learning (ML) we have now created a separate proxy suite dedicated to this scientific applications of ML. The suite includes: miniGAN (Generative Adversarial Networks), miniRL (Reinforcement Learning), CRADL (inline inference), Cosmoflow-Benchmark (Convolutional Neural Network), and MLPerf-DeepCam (Climate Segmentation Benchmark). Section 3 contains more information about these proxies as well as the principles that are guiding the development of the suite. We have surveyed available proxies for several application domains including Computational Fluid Dynamics, Quantum Chemistry, Quantum Computing Simulation, Molecular Dynamics, Monte Carlo Transport, and Density Functional Theory to identify gaps in proxy coverage. Several new proxy apps are either already available or will be released soon to fill these gaps. Section 4 provides full details. Finally, section 5 reports on our continued collaboration with the ECP Continuous Integration (CI) effort to use proxy apps to help identify problems and roadblocks to cross-lab CI. We have also assisted the El Capitan Center of Excellence (COE) to stand up a CI system that will be used to test releases of HPE and AMD software stacks. We hope that the COE effort can serve as a model for ECP by showing how the Proxy App Team can work with AD and ST teams identify critical features, kernels, patterns, etc. and incorporate them into a CI system that will help ensure that Frontier and Aurora will provide those needed capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Rapid Bayesian High Entropy Alloy Designs Fabricated via Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Purpose: This project seeks to demonstrate a new high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique applied to creating new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments. High entropy alloys shift the design paradigm from being focused on a single principal element (e.g. nickel-based alloys) to target alloys that include high atomic fractions (X >10%) of multiple elements. These HEA materials can exhibit sluggish diffusion and enhanced corrosion resistance, ideal for potential applications in advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. Scope: The addition of multiple elements in high atomic fractions creates an enormous design space that cannot easily be investigated by traditional material design strategies such as designed of experiments (DOE). This project utilizes a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that has been modified to work with calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) software. This Bayesian algorithm reduces manual inputs and increase the likelihood of achieving an optimal solution. Compositional inputs to this algorithm will be assessed using existing material property models for high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. The target for alloy performance will be a 15% (~100 ⁰C) increase in allowable service temperature beyond heat-resistant stainless steels while maintaining or improving alloy cost and corrosion resistance. Haynes 230 was selected as a baseline, which is 57 wt% Ni with 22 wt% Cr 14 wt% W, and 2 wt% Mo as solid solution strengtheners. In addition to rapid design via Bayesian machine learning, the alloys were rapidly fabricated using a multi-wire arc additive manufacturing (mWAAM) technique which allows for precise control of alloy composition and assessing of alloy design “windows” to study composition effects. Build speeds for wire-arc additive processes are among the highest for additive technologies enabling rapid and reliable sample fabrication when compared to conventional methods such as arc button melting. The mWAAM samples will be rapidly characterized via instrumented indentation for room temperature modulus and strength and for elevated temperature strength via hot hardness tests. After being screened with hardness testing, potential alloys will be further evaluated with conventional microscopy techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess agreement with modeling results. The most promising compositions will also be evaluated by printing full sized tensile specimens for mechanical behavior tests at elevated temperatures. Results: Bayesian machine learning of a single performance function was initially used to optimize five performance metrics: 1) single phase stability, 2) yield strength, 3) creep resistance (low diffusion coefficient), 4) freezing range (weldability), and 5) material cost. The single performance function was suboptimal as assumptions had to be made about the results while formulating the optimization. A goal-oriented Bayesian optimization strategy (Hanaoka, 2021) was implemented with CALPHAD for use with the five metrics above. This multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) enabled the design of NiCrCoFe alloys with V and W additions. A base composition of NiCoCr was selected as Ni provides a stable FCC matrix, Cr aids corrosion/oxidation resistance, and Co is a solid-solutions strengthener that also improves creep by increasing the activation energy. Fe helps reduce diffusion coefficients and cost. Finally, V and W were selected for their reasonable solubility and high atomic misfit to aid in solid solution strengthening. Cracking of the mWAAM specimens was an early issue, and the Easton solidification cracking model (Easton et al., 2014a) was selected for addition to the MOBO function. High performing alloys fabricated by mWAAM included Ni 28 Cr 25 Co 26 Fe 15 V 8 and Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 . It was observed that even after adapting the mWAAM process for W, the W did not fully dissolve. To fully evaluate the Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 composition, a cored wire (80-20 NiCr sheath/powder core) was manufactured and printed via WAAM, and HIP’ing was utilized to homogenize and densify the printed alloy. The V and W alloys produced met metrics 1 (solid solution), 4 (solidification cracking), and 5 (cost). However, an unmodeled mechanism of thermal stress cracking was identified in the WAAM produced materials, perhaps exacerbated by the lack of grain boundary strengthening elements (B, C). Conclusions & Recommendations: A high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique was applied to designing and manufacturing new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments utilizing MOBO and mWAAM. The developed process was rapid and effective in addressing the mechanisms included in the model. The lack of grain boundary strengthening element additions (e.g., B, C) was a simplification that likely produced thermal stress cracking that turned into a large part of the investigation. Additions on the order of 0.005 wt% B and 0.05 wt% C likely would have minimized thermal stress grain boundary cracking. Overall, the high throughput design strategy is promising for rapid design of metrics-driven alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. The MOBO and mWAAM process could be commercialized to accelerate metrics-driven alloy design. In addition, the cored-wire process utilized for scale-up is a promising high-volume process for WAAM alloy development and scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗