Results for “socioeconomic” — Page 5

DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1995

SEDAC information gateway plan V(1)

This annual update of the Information Gateway Plan incorporates changes recommended by the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) User Working Group (UWG) and reflects comments and suggestions from users, collaborators, and the Contracting Officer Technical Representative (COTR). The Information Gateway Plan is a concise and specific plan that outlines SEDAC activities and services in support of the earth and social sciences and other user communities. The SEDAC Information Gateway effort is a primary means by which the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) can link meaningfully with a broad range of social science data sources and users in ways that lead to tangible benefits to the American people. The SEDAC Information Gateway provides interdisciplinary access to socioeconomic and physical science data and information resources held by SEDAC and numerous other institutions and networks around the world. The Plan describes the areas of research of earth scientists and socioeconomic scientists where interchange of data and information is most needed. It sets guidelines for the continued development of SEDAC's directory of social science datasets and establishes priorities for efforts to make data held by SEDAC or accessible through SEDAC available to the user community. The Plan also describes the means by which the SEDAC user community can access information products specified by the SEDAC Data and Applications Development Plan (DADP). Among other major activities, SEDAC will continue to enhance and operate a directory capability, interoperable with the Global Change Master Directory, that provides the socioeconomic community with information about earth science products and the earth science research community with information about socioeconomic data. The Information Gateway also serves as a unique and powerful access pathway for a wide range of users and potential users of socioeconomic and earth science data, including especially remote sensing data.

Chen, Robert S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Relationships Between Economic and Neighborhood-Related Social Determinants of Health and Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay for Critically Ill Children With Medical Complexity Presenting With Severe Sepsis

Objectives: Of the Social Determinants of Health (SDoH), we evaluated socioeconomic and neighborhood-related factors which may affect children with medical complexity (CMC) admitted to a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in Shelby County, Tennessee with severe sepsis and their association with PICU length of stay (LOS). We hypothesized that census tract-level socioeconomic and neighborhood factors were associated with prolonged PICU LOS in CMC admitted with severe sepsis in the underserved community. Methods: This single-center retrospective observational study included CMC living in Shelby County, Tennessee admitted to the ICU with severe sepsis over an 18-month period. Severe sepsis CMC patients were identified using an existing algorithm incorporated into the electronic medical record at a freestanding children's hospital. SDoH information was collected and analyzed using patient records and publicly available census-tract level data, with ICU length of stay as the primary outcome. Results: 83 encounters representing 73 patients were included in the analysis. The median PICU LOS was 9.04 days (IQR 3.99–20.35). The population was 53% male with a median age of 4.1 years (IQR 1.96–12.02). There were 57 Black/African American patients (68.7%) and 85.5% had public insurance. Based on census tract-level data, about half (49.4%) of the CMC severe sepsis population lived in census tracts classified as suffering from high social vulnerability. There were no statistically significant relationships between any socioeconomic and neighborhood level factors and PICU LOS. Conclusion: Pediatric CMC severe sepsis patients admitted to the PICU do not have prolonged lengths of ICU stay related to socioeconomic and neighborhood-level SDoH at our center. A larger sample with the use of individual-level screening would need to be evaluated for associations between social determinants of health and PICU outcomes of these patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

risk↗

DOE OSTI2023

Community vulnerability is the key determinant of diverse energy burdens in the United States

Low-income households generally experience a high energy burden; however, the factors influencing energy burdens are beyond socio-economics. This study explores the relationships between the multidimensionality of community vulnerability factors and energy burden across multiple geospatial levels in the United States. Our study found the distribution of energy burden in 2020 showed a great deal of variety, ranging from a minimum of 2.93 % to a maximum of 30.45 % across 3142 counties. The results of non-spatial and spatial regressions showed that the vulnerability ranks of socioeconomic, household composition and disability, minority and language, household type and transportation, and COVID mortality rate are significant predictors of energy burdens at the national level. However, at the regional level, only socioeconomic, minority and language significantly influence energy burdens. Minority and language negatively impact energy burdens except for the South East-Central region. Additionally, our analyses highlight the need to consider community vulnerability indicators' spatial homogeneity and heterogeneity. At the national level, only the epidemiological factors index is a spatially homogeneous predictor; on the regional and state level, the spatially homogeneous predictors such as socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, and household type and transportation vary by region. Such a region-sensitive relationship between energy burden and the predictors indicates spatial heterogeneity. Here this study suggests policy recommendations through the lens of the multidimensionality of community vulnerability factors. Implementing flexible national energy policies while making particular energy assistance policies for the vulnerable population at the regional or state levels is essential.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗

DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗

NASA NTRS2016

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

water scarcity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for a Nuclear Power Plant Colocated with Industrial Facilities: Colocation Studies for a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for an NPP Colocated with a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Relationships between pediatric asthma and socioeconomic/urban variables in Baltimore, Maryland

Spatial relationships between clinical data for pediatric asthmatics (hospital and emergency department utilization rates), and socioeconomic and urban characteristics in Baltimore City were analyzed with the aim of identifying factors that contribute to increased asthma rates. Socioeconomic variables and urban characteristics derived from satellite data explained 95% of the spatial variation in hospital rates. The proportion of families headed by a single female was the most important variable accounting for 89% of the spatial variation. Evidence suggests that the high rates of hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits may partially be due to the difficulty of single parents with limited resources managing their child's asthma condition properly. This knowledge can be used for education towards mitigating ED and hospital events in Baltimore City.

Emergency Service, Hospital/utilization↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

converter↗