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Present-value analysis: A systems approach to public decisionmaking for cost effectiveness

Decision makers within Governmental agencies and Congress must evaluate competing (and sometimes conflicting) proposals which seek funding and implementation. Present value analysis can be an effective decision making tool by enabling the formal evaluation of the effects of competing proposals on efficient national resource utilization. A project's costs are not only its direct disbursements, but its social costs as well. How much does it cost to have those funds diverted from their use and economic benefit by the private sector to the public project? Comparisons of competing projects' social costs allow decision makers to expand their decision bases by quantifying the projects' impacts upon the economy and the efficient utilization of the country's limited national resources. A conceptual model is established for the choosing of the appropriate discount rate to be used in evaluation decisions through the technique.

Herbert, T. T.↗

Winds of fortune? Understanding the geographic, sociodemographic, and temporal distribution of benefit mechanisms from land-based wind projects in the United States

Despite decades of research on factors shaping local responses to wind development, there is relatively little known about benefit mechanisms (e.g., agreements, funds, donations) used by developers in the U.S. land-based wind sector. To address this gap, we collected benefit mechanism data across all current utility-scale land-based wind projects installed between 1982 and 2024 (n = 1047), finding that just under one-third of projects had a benefit mechanism attached to them. We find the use of benefit mechanisms has become more common over time, is associated with larger projects, and varies by region. In terms of host community characteristics, the use of benefit mechanisms is associated with characteristics like higher education level, higher percent white, higher percent Republican, higher decision-making capacity, lower unemployment rate, and higher poverty rate. Building on a theoretical framework of purposes, we discuss what these findings could suggest about the motivations driving developers' use of these mechanisms, such as increasing local acceptance of a wind project or supporting distributive fairness. This first-of-its-kind study builds a comprehensive understanding of how benefit mechanisms have been used in the U.S. wind industry throughout its history, which can inform future approaches to benefit-sharing across sectors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Analysis of Energy Justice and Equity Impacts from Replacing Peaker Plants with Energy Storage

Transitions to low-carbon energy systems are essential to mitigating and adapting to climate change. Energy storage systems are a key component in achieving a viable decarbonized electric grid. However, decarbonization alone does not guarantee a fairer, more inclusive, or socially just energy system. Energy equity and justice should be integrated in energy system transitions to ensure benefits and burdens are shared equitably. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between energy storage and social equity by assessing the use of energy storage to replace natural gas-fired (NG) peaker plants. Peaker plants are disproportionately located near disadvantaged communities and tend to be older and high emitters of health-affecting fine particulate matter and other pollutants. This paper investigates the equity implications of NG peaker plant replacements with battery energy storage in the context of Washington State’s peaker plants to highlight the human-centered values of retiring the plants. The study performed production cost simulations using the latest Western Electric Coordinating Council Anchor Dataset 2030 case and found that total generation cost, locational marginal price, and total annual emissions were reduced with the replacements. These reductions will have equity benefits on local communities including access to clean air, enhanced health outcomes, and energy burden reductions.

Tarekegne, Bethel W.↗

The Future of Energy Efficiency for U.S. Buildings - Drivers and Market Scenarios

This paper identifies likely drivers of building efficiency over the next ten years and expectations for how efficiency markets may evolve over this period. To prepare these predictions, we conducted an extensive literature review, interviewed 22 experts, reviewed legislation and executive orders in 12 states, and implemented a detailed questionnaire completed by 41 efficiency practitioners. The two most important drivers revealed by our research are (1) public policies and regulations, particularly those associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation and (2) the cost of energy relative to the cost of delivering efficiency. Other important drivers are technology changes, economic conditions, social priorities, and industry (including utility) business practices for increasing the uptake of efficiency in buildings. Our research indicates that efficiency markets will increasingly focus on supporting building decarbonization and enabling demand flexibility through the use of controls in grid-interactive efficient buildings and communities. Efficiency improvements for specific technologies (e.g., heat pumps, controls, and windows) and technological advances not specific to energy technologies (e.g., interoperability, artificial intelligence, and universal internet access) will improve the efficacy of efficiency measures and actions. Marketing of efficient products and services will increasingly focus on grid services, decarbonization, non-energy benefits for consumers, and integration with other distributed energy resources (DERs). We anticipate increased investment in disadvantaged and historically underserved communities, recognizing the social, health, and safety benefits of efficient energy usage and remediating historical biases. Lastly, we predict that while state and local government actions will vary, jurisdictions will increase their efficiency goals overall.

Schiller, Steven R↗

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the circular economy: Lessons learned and path forward

Circular economy aims at decoupling human activities from resource use and creating wealth. However, many have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in several methodological approaches being developed to answer that question. This article analyzes and discusses the insights gained from applying agent-based modeling and simulation to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability. This article analyzes the benefits and limitations of this technology and discusses future methodology developments within the circular economy context. Moreover, six limits of the circular economy concept are used to interpret insights from the literature: thermodynamic limits, system boundary limits, limits posed by the physical scale of the economy, limits posed by path dependencies and lock-in, limits of governance and management, and limits of social and cultural definitions. Promising research avenues are to use this methodology with machine learning, industrial ecology methods, and detailed geographic information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating the role of green infrastructure features in post-disaster recovery – Case Study of Beaumont, Texas after tropical storm imelda

While green infrastructure (GI) can provide multiple environmental benefits, its role in post-disaster economic and social recovery remains relatively underexplored. This article investigates whether different characteristics of GI, such as size, shape, connectivity, and amenities, affect the resilience of local businesses following Tropical Storm Imelda in Beaumont, Texas. The study utilizes SafeGraph mobility data to analyze foot traffic patterns to local businesses before, during, and after the disaster. FRAGSTATS indices measure GI characteristics (e.g., area, shape index, fractal dimension, proximity) while park features such as sports facilities, playgrounds, water features, and accessibility are cataloged through manual observation. Ordinary Least Squares regression models assess the relationship between park characteristics and post-recovery business performance, controlling for demographic variables including income, race, and poverty levels. Results indicate that certain GI attributes significantly enhance business recovery. Points of interest within walking distance (0.5 miles) of parks demonstrated better post-recovery status compared to those beyond this range. Specifically, parks with larger areas (p < 0.01) and more complex shapes measured by fractal dimension index (p < 0.01) had the strongest positive impact on surrounding businesses' recovery. Interestingly, playgrounds showed a negative correlation with recovery (p < 0.05), likely due to flood damage rendering them unusable during the immediate recovery period. Social vulnerability factors, including higher poverty rates and minority populations, negatively affected recovery outcomes despite park proximity.

Economic resilience↗

New Matrix Framework to Determine Carbon Storage Technical Viability

Carbon storage is an integral component of reducing CO2 emissions. Research over the past two decades has developed workflows for volume assessments and economic project feasibility, providing necessary and useful tools to progress geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects. These workflows and assessments have focused primarily on determining the in-situ storage resource based on geologic and engineering parameters and do not integrate subsurface characterization with surface conditions, social factors, and environmental factors that may pose a benefit or impediment to the implementation of GCS. Furthermore, the data required to assess the technical viability of GCS are myriad and disparate. There is no current methodology that identifies technical viability criteria and systematically informs how to aggregate these factors for spatial assessments. To address this gap, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed a Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach (CS TVA) Matrix that incorporates a wide variety of factors to inform and accelerate screening for GCS site selection in the United States.

Mulhern, Julia↗

The Interplay of Humor and Team Cohesion Over Time

Team bonding and interpersonal relationships are increasingly important as we continue understanding the effects of the pandemic on team dynamics. Specifically, team cohesion, defined as having a sense of belonging and commitment towards the group, has been found to be important for key team outcomes such as performance, relationships, and productivity (Beal, Cohen, Burke, & McLendon, 2003; Bell & Marentette, 2011). Research has stressed the benefits of positive humor on cohesion, with humor creating positive emotions and decreasing social distance (e.g., Robert & Wilbanks, 2012; Robinson & Smith-Lovin, 2001; Romero & Pescosolido, 2008). However, research around the impact of negative humor on cohesion is scarce. This study aims to examine the impact of both positive and negative humor on cohesion for teams over time. The longitudinal design allows us to examine the interplay of humor and cohesion throughout a team’s lifecycle to guide relationship development and management (Romero & Pescosolido, 2008). Humor is defined as remarks recognized as amusing or funny (Martin, 2007). Positive humor can be categorized as good-natured aimed to create mutual agreement, while negative humor is defined as aggressive, hostile, and unreciprocated (Coan & Gottman, 2007). Research has concluded the many benefits of positive humor, showing it can increase open communication, social support, and create a pleasant environment (Martineau, 1972; Robinson & Smith-Lovin, 2001; Romero & Pescosolido, 2008). The Humor Wheel model suggests that positive humor is contagious due to the positive affect produced and mimicked (Lehmann-Willenbrock & Allen 2014). Research has suggested positive humor would increase over time based on the norm of reciprocity; those treated positively are likely to respond similarly (Gouldner, 1960). Multiple parties’ involvement in humor exchanges highlights the interpersonal nature of humor. Thus, long-term consequences on relationships should be considered, such as cohesion (Robert & Wilbanks, 2012). It would be instrumental to understand how humor interactions could weaken or strengthen group cohesion through relational and emotional bonds over time (Martineau, 1972; Romero & Pescosolido, 2008). Positive humor should fundamentally increase team cohesion (Mesmer-Magnus, Glew, & Viswesvaran, 2012; Walter & Baruch, 2008) by promoting group harmony, team member attractiveness, and ingroup identity (Holmes, 2006). Thus, it is expected there is a positive relationship between positive humor and team cohesion over time (hypothesis 1). Humor is not always beneficial, especially when it elicits negative emotions (Dikkers, Doosje, & de Lange, 2011). Negative humor can be used to humiliate, tease, or insult (Coan & Gottman, 2007; Collinson, 1988; Romero & Cruthirds, 2006). It tends to cause distress and damage relationships, and in turn, decrease organizational performance and production (Avolio, Howell, & Sosik, 1999; Janes & Olson, 2000; Yerkes, 2001). Research concludes negative humor may create subgroups and decrease cooperation (Romero & Arendt, 2011). Research has also indicated positive implications for negative humor under specific circumstances. Negative humor could help to solidify ingroup identity and strengthen bonds when directed outside the team (Terrion & Ashforth, 2002; Thomae & Pina, 2015). For example, sport teams may use negative humor towards their opponent before a game, which emphasizes their differences and lowers the status and power of their opponent, ultimately promoting solidarity and cohesion inside the group. For this study, it is anticipated that negative humor toward other teammates will decrease team cohesion over time due to the damage to relationships and negative affect produced (Duncan, Smeltzer, & Leap, 1990; Maples, Dupey, Torres‐Rivera, Phan, Vereen, & Garrett, 2001). We also predicted that negative humor focused on something or someone outside the team will increase cohesion by enhancing ingroup ties and creating a common identity (Thomae & Pina, 2015). Thus, the relationship between negative humor and cohesion will be moderated by the target of the humor. The relationship will be negative when the target is within the team and positive when the target is outside (hypothesis 2).

Melissa M. Vazquez↗

The MATHEMATICA economic analysis of the Space Shuttle System

Detailed economic analysis shows the Thrust Assisted Orbiter Space Shuttle System (TAOS) to be the most economic Space Shuttle configuration among the systems studied. The development of a TAOS Shuttle system is economically justified within a level of space activities between 300 and 360 Shuttle flights in the 1979-1990 period, or about 25 to 30 flights per year, well within the U.S. Space Program including NASA and DoD missions. If the NASA and DoD models are taken at face value (624 flights), the benefits of the Shuttle system are estimated to be $13.9 billion with a standard deviation of plus or minus $1.45 billion in 1970 dollars (at a 10% social rate of discount). If the expected program is modified to 514 flights (in the 1979-1990 period), the estimated benefits of the Shuttle system are $10.2 billion, with a standard deviation of $940 million (at a 10% social rate of discount).

Heiss, K. P.↗

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗

Heavy-tailed distribution of the number of papers within scientific journals

Scholarly publications represent at least two benefits for the study of the scientific community as a social group. First, they attest to some form of relation between scientists (collaborations, mentoring, heritage, …), useful to determine and analyze social subgroups. Second, most of them are recorded in large databases, easily accessible and including a lot of pertinent information, easing the quantitative and qualitative study of the scientific community. Understanding the underlying dynamics driving the creation of knowledge in general, and of scientific publication in particular, can contribute to maintaining a high level of research, by identifying good and bad practices in science. In this article, we aim to advance this understanding by a statistical analysis of publication within peer-reviewed journals. Namely, we show that the distribution of the number of papers published by an author in a given journal is heavy-tailed, but has a lighter tail than a power law. Interestingly, we demonstrate (both analytically and numerically) that such distributions match the result of a modified preferential attachment process, where, on top of a Barabási-Albert process, we take the finite career span of scientists into account.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 1: Justice as Recognition

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided and community-tailored strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. This chapter focuses on recognition justice, identifying and analyzing past and present social, cultural, and institutional barriers to affordable and clean energy for LA communities, as well as disparities in the distribution of energy system burdens and benefits. Acknowledging historical and structural factors behind current energy inequities is a first step in developing energy equity strategies for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to achieve distributional justice - the just and equitable distribution of energy benefits and burdens in LA's energy transition. Recognition, procedural, and distributional justice are the three tenets of energy justice around which the LA100 Equity Strategies project is organized. In the United States, theory and practice around justice have historically focused on unequal distribution of environmental benefits and burdens. The historical siting of hazardous infrastructure such as power plants and transportation corridors in communities of color and low-income communities has disproportionately concentrated negative environmental impacts in their neighborhoods. Those inequities are reproduced via programs, policies, and other efforts (e.g., zoning and regulations, rebates and incentives, lending, investment, and financing) that directly affect people's lives and livelihoods. In recent decades, energy justice scholars and activists broadened their analysis to examine how environmental inequities intersect with other forms of social difference in the distribution of energy benefits and burdens. This approach investigates how differences in class, race, gender, age, and abilities, among others, intersect to understand the social, cultural, and institutional processes that create and perpetuate energy inequities. The LA100 Equity Strategies project embraces this approach to developing a more just clean energy future for LA. Because recognizing and understanding past and existing inequities is vital to addressing them in ways that ensure an equitable energy transition for all Angelenos, this chapter focuses on identifying and analyzing the challenges and inequities of LA's past and existing energy system, including LADWP programs.

community↗

Dataset Repository for Investigating Suicide Risk Using Social and Environmental Determinants of Health

Suicide is frequently modeled as a function of genetics and environment, where the latter refers to factors other than direct biological consequences, such as air quality, financial level, social connectivity, transportation and food access, and homelessness status. According to the World Health Organization, clean air, a stable climate, adequate water, sanitation and hygiene, safe chemical use, radiation protection, healthy and safe workplaces, sound agricultural practices, health-supportive cities and built environments, and a preserved natural environment are all prerequisites for good health. Understanding the relationships between these determinants and mental health outcomes requires standardized data that can be included in healthcare programs and health outcome models. There is a wealth of publicly available data on social and environmental factors provided by various US organizations that can benefit the design of health care systems and public health interventions, as well as improve our comprehension of factors that impact health. Such information would not only help improve the understanding of individual and community risk but also identify new risk factors that have not previously been therapeutically targeted, especially in terms of their impact on mental health. However, curating and standardizing such datasets is challenging because they are often recorded at numerous geographical and temporal resolutions and with varying spatial and temporal granularities. To address this challenge, we launched an endeavor in conjunction with the Veterans Health Administration to collect publicly available socioeconomic and environmental determinants of health statistics in the US. In this manuscript, we describe a social and environmental determinants of health (SEDH) datasets repository, data curation documentation, and a pipeline framework for data generation; This effort started in 2020, when we began constructing a scalable pipeline to automate the download, extraction, preparation, analysis, and production of datasets. These datasets have been made available to the VHA and may be shared upon agreement with collaborating organizations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SEDAC information gateway plan V(1)

This annual update of the Information Gateway Plan incorporates changes recommended by the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) User Working Group (UWG) and reflects comments and suggestions from users, collaborators, and the Contracting Officer Technical Representative (COTR). The Information Gateway Plan is a concise and specific plan that outlines SEDAC activities and services in support of the earth and social sciences and other user communities. The SEDAC Information Gateway effort is a primary means by which the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) can link meaningfully with a broad range of social science data sources and users in ways that lead to tangible benefits to the American people. The SEDAC Information Gateway provides interdisciplinary access to socioeconomic and physical science data and information resources held by SEDAC and numerous other institutions and networks around the world. The Plan describes the areas of research of earth scientists and socioeconomic scientists where interchange of data and information is most needed. It sets guidelines for the continued development of SEDAC's directory of social science datasets and establishes priorities for efforts to make data held by SEDAC or accessible through SEDAC available to the user community. The Plan also describes the means by which the SEDAC user community can access information products specified by the SEDAC Data and Applications Development Plan (DADP). Among other major activities, SEDAC will continue to enhance and operate a directory capability, interoperable with the Global Change Master Directory, that provides the socioeconomic community with information about earth science products and the earth science research community with information about socioeconomic data. The Information Gateway also serves as a unique and powerful access pathway for a wide range of users and potential users of socioeconomic and earth science data, including especially remote sensing data.

Chen, Robert S.↗

Techno‐economic, environmental, and social measurement of clean energy technology supply chains

Abstract In addition to the criteria of reliability and cost, clean energy technologies, such as wind, solar, and batteries, need to strive to a higher standard of environmental and societal benefit along their entire supply chain. This means additional performance metrics for these technologies should be considered, such as embodied energy, embodied carbon, recycled content and recyclability, environmental impact of material sourcing, impact on land and ecosystems, materials recovery at end of life, and production through quality nonexploitive jobs with community benefit. Many commercial and emerging energy technologies have not yet been explicitly evaluated based on these environmental and social performance metrics, which presents multiple opportunities for researchers and analysts. In this paper, we review the importance and current limitations of techno‐economic and life‐cycle assessment models for research design and manufacturing decisions. We explore emerging manufacturing modeling options that could improve environmental and social performance and how they could be used to help guide research. Even with the deployment of low‐carbon energy‐generation technologies, the future of a successful clean energy transition requires collaboration between researchers, advanced manufacturers, independent standards and tracking organizations, local communities, and national governments, to ensure the financial, environmental, and social sustainability of the entire supply and manufacturing process of energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Undergraduate Women in STEM Internship Program

In collaboration with the Universities Research Association, Inc. (URA), establishment of the Undergraduate Women in STEM Internship pilot program assists Fermi Research Alliance, LLC (FRA) with honoring its commitment to increasing gender, racial and ethnic workforce diversity. This focused initiative is intended to invite, support and yield a qualified pipeline of alumnae underrepresented in FRA’s science and technology management and technical staff positions. Interns in this program spend 10-12 weeks at Fermilab working under the direct leadership, guidance and supervision of scientists, engineers, computing professionals, technicians and staff across all directorates performing hands-on research. In addition, the intern cohort meets with mentors and advisors to grow their professional networks, to take part in engaging and inclusive intellectual discussions, to directly benefit from workplace resources, and to participate in professional development and social engagement opportunities. The design of each research project and the supervision, mentorship and evaluation is conducted by a scientific, engineering, computing professional at Fermilab.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning. Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities. Regenerating the commons includes creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape community resilience decisions and experience related benefits. Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities or offices of community engagement. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings.

Callaham, Shannon↗

Potential benefits of remote sensing: Theoretical framework and empirical estimate

A theoretical framwork is outlined for estimating social returns from research and application of remote sensing. The approximate dollar magnitude is given of a particular application of remote sensing, namely estimates of corn production, soybeans, and wheat. Finally, some comments are made on the limitations of this procedure and on the implications of results.

Eisgruber, L. M.↗