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At least 91 records · Page 5

Progress in the development and understanding of a high poloidal-beta tokamak operating scenario for an attractive fusion pilot plant

Abstract The high poloidal-beta ( $$\beta _{\textrm{P}}$$ β P ) regime was first proposed as a high bootstrap current scenario for a steady-state fusion pilot plant (FPP) in the 1990s (Kikuchi in Nucl Fusion 30:265, 1990). Since then, there have been many theoretical, modeling, and experimental research activities on this topic. A joint DIII-D/EAST research team began exploring the high- $$\beta _{\textrm{P}}$$ β P regime in 2013, focusing on addressing the needs of attractive FPP design by taking advantage of the extensive diagnostic set and sophisticated plasma control system on DIII-D and the well-developed integrated modeling capability at General Atomics. The ultimate goal is to demonstrate such a scenario on EAST with truly long pulse and metal wall compatibility. This paper summarizes the highlights of the research results on DIII-D by the joint team in the past decade. Experimental evidence and modeling analysis show the high- $$\beta _{\textrm{P}}$$ β P scenario has great advantages in addressing key needs for an attractive FPP design, such as high-energy confinement quality at low rotation, excellent core-edge integration, high line-averaged density above the Greenwald limit, low disruption risk, and high bootstrap current fraction for steady-state operation. This provides a relatively safe and economical option to base an FPP design on that will lead to commercial fusion energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A review on the state of thermal hydraulics research on air ingress scenarios in High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors following a D-LOFC

With the expectation of near-immediate carbon neutrality, widespread implementation of proven High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) embodies a viable solution pathway given their inherent, passive safety features and high thermal efficiency. This study provides an overview of the current state of research involving the thermal hydraulics associated with air ingress from a depressurized loss of forced cooling (D-LOFC) in HTGRs. Accurately characterizing and predicting the physical phenomena underlying air ingress is of paramount concern, as the integrity of the fuel and core graphite support structures are threatened by the presence of oxygen. Broadly speaking, the air ingress scenario can be delineated into three main stages: (1) Depressurization, (2) Density-Driven Flow, and (3) Natural Convection. In tandem with the underlying fundamental theory, this review collates and synthesizes the existing body of contemporary research concerning the air ingress scenario following a D-LOFC. As evinced by this review, our current understanding and predictive abilities have benefited from extensive research, predominantly concentrated on the rate of air ingestion into the core. Here, additional research is necessary to holistically capture the phenomenology of an air ingress scenario following a D-LOFC by considering an additional variable: the oxygen content of the ingressing air. The latter variable requires investigation into the complex interactions of the fully integrated system. Additionally, while numerical tools are evolving domestically through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, a sufficiently validated code remains absent.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

PFPO plasma scenarios for exploration of long pulse operation in ITER

Long Pulse Scenarios (LPS) in ITER foreseen during the Pre-Fusion Power Operation (PFPO) phase of the ITER Research Plan (IRP) are assessed using 1.5D transport simulations within the ASTRA framework. Such assessment is required to predict the operational space for LPS operation in PFPO, as well as to evaluate which physics processes for LPS operation during Fusion Power Operation (FPO) could be studied during PFPO. An important aspect in the development of LPSs in PFPO is to minimize lifetime consumption of the Central Solenoid (CS) for these scenarios. The maximum pulse length achievable for LPSs in PFPO with no consumption of CS lifetime (currents in CS coils $⩽$30 kA per turn) has been assessed for a range of heating schemes and heating mixes, confinement regimes (L-mode and H-mode) and for helium and hydrogen plasmas. The operational space of LPS and pulse length has been explored through density scans with the Heating and Current Drive mix required for the FPO Q $⩾$ 5 steady-state plasma scenario (namely Neutral Beam Injection and Electron Cyclotron Heating) including acceptable shine through losses on the first wall for both helium and hydrogen plasmas. Fast particle physics aspects that are common between FPO plasmas and LPS PFPO H-mode plasmas at low densities are studied including MHD stability analysis with the KINX code and non-perturbative critical gradient model based on high-n Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAE) stability kinetic ballooning code HINST calculations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Impact of n > 1 neoclassical tearing modes on fast ions, plasma rotation, and the onset of disruptive tearing modes in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario

We present integrated TRANSP-kick analyses quantitatively characterizing how n > 1 magnetic islands redistribute fast ions (FIs) and modify momentum balance in low-torque DIII-D H-mode scenarios operated with the ITER normalized parameter set and shape (ITER baseline scenario, or IBS). In this plasma scenario, disruptive neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are most commonly seeded by nonlinear 3-wave coupling when the differential rotation between the q = 1 and q = 2 surfaces ($δf_{1, 2}$) approaches zero. Analysis of a DIII-D IBS database of shots unstable to the 2/1 NTM demonstrates that the flattening rotation profile is correlated with n > 1 NTM amplitude growth, with a strong drop in $δf_{1, 2}$ occurring when the radial magnetic perturbation amplitude at the rational surface ($δB$ r s ) is estimated to be about 20 G. The interpretive TRANSP-kick simulations show that the experimentally observed reduction in core rotation is due to the fast-ion kicks. Nonlinearity in momentum losses versus NTM amplitude is found to be correlated with overlap of FI island chains, occurring when $δB$ r s is about 35 G, in rough agreement with the experimental results. This agreement suggests the primary mechanism for the conductive momentum loss in the core is due to chaotic FI orbits and FI losses developing from overlapping resonant FI island chains.

ITER baseline scenario↗

Developing the hybrid scenario in DIII-D and KSTAR for W-compatible long-pulse operation

Long-pulse, high-performance operation with tungsten plasma-facing components is a crucial challenge for achieving steady-state (SS) goals in ITER and future fusion devices. This paper presents a joint international effort between the DIII-D and KSTAR tokamaks aimed at demonstrating the compatibility of the high q 95 ~ 6 hybrid scenario with a tungsten divertor and superconducting coils. A DIII-D hybrid scenario recipe is successfully tailored to KSTAR’s operational constraints, which facilitates cross-device studies. The results show successful 30 s long-pulse operation in KSTAR at a normalized beta (β N = 2.4) with a benign m/n = 4/3 mode and effective mitigation of tungsten accumulation. Despite this success, the KSTAR scenario exhibits a greater than 25% reduction in thermal confinement compared to the DIII-D reference. To investigate this discrepancy, we performed a predictive TGYRO validation study, which suggests that the difference is likely caused by a weaker temperature pedestal in the KSTAR discharge due to a higher and narrower density pedestal. In addition, such lower thermal confinement leads to higher impurity accumulation, possibly due to a change in neoclassical transport with increased inward pinch, which further degrades global confinement. We also report that stationary, long-pulse operation with sustained thermal confinement requires consistent fueling and wall conditioning. These findings highlight the importance of optimized fueling and real-time wall conditioning in achieving a high temperature pedestal and strong global confinement during stable long-pulse operation. We propose potential approaches toward fully SS, long-pulse operation, including real-time wall conditioning using an impurity dropper in KSTAR and future tokamaks.

DIII-D↗

Estimation of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor performance and burning fraction in different pellet fueling scenarios by a multi-species radial transport model

Tritium self-sufficiency in future deuterium–tritium fusion reactors is a crucial challenge. As an engineering test reactor, the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor requires a burning fraction of 3% for the goal to test the accessibility to the future fusion plant. To self-consistently simulate burning plasmas with profile changes in pellet injection scenarios and to estimate the corresponding burning fraction, a one-dimensional multi-species radial transport model is developed in the BOUT++ framework. Here several pellet-fueling scenarios are then tested in the model. The results show that the increased fueling depth improves the burning fraction by particle confinement improvement and fusion power increase. Nevertheless, by increasing the depth, the pellet cooling-down may significantly lower the temperature in the core region. Taking the density perturbation into consideration, the reasonable parameters of the fueling scenario in these simulations are estimated as pellet radius ${r}_{{\rm{p}}}=3\,{\rm{mm}},$ injection rate $=\,4\,\mathrm{Hz},$ and pellet injection velocity $=\,1000\mbox{-}2000\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ without drift or $450\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ with high-field-side drift.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100 (Basin and Regional Scale)

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Xanthos Output Dataset This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 CMIP6 GCMs and 3 SSP-RCP scenarios. (1) 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 (2) 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The output variables in this dataset are aggregated to basin and regional scales. (1) Monthly runoff at basin scale (2) Annual accessible renewable water at basin scale (2) Annual actual hydropower production, hydropower potential, and exploitable hydropower potential at regional scale

Climate Change↗

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Overview Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Details This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Each folder is named as cmip6_{gcm}_{ensemble-member}_{ssp}. 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The table below summarizes the details of output variables within each scenario folder. | Output Variable | File Short Name | Spatial Resolution | Unit | | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | --------------------- | | Runoff | q | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Runoff | Basin_runoff | GCAM basin | km3/month | | Runoff | Country_runoff | Country | km3/month | | Runoff | GCAMRegion_runoff | GCAM region | km3/month | | Streamflow | avgchflow | 0.5x0.5 degree | m3/second | | Potential Evapotranspiration | pet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Actual Evapotranspiration | aet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Accessible Water | accessible_water | GCAM basin | km3/year | | Hydropower Generation | actual_hydro | GCAM region | EJ/year |

Climate Change↗

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Overview Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Details This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Each folder is named as cmip6_{gcm}_{ensemble-member}_{ssp}. 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The table below summarizes the details of output variables within each scenario folder. | Output Variable | File Short Name | Spatial Resolution | Unit | | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | --------------------- | | Runoff | q | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Runoff | Basin_runoff | GCAM basin | km3/month | | Runoff | Country_runoff | Country | km3/month | | Runoff | GCAMRegion_runoff | GCAM region | km3/month | | Streamflow | avgchflow | 0.5x0.5 degree | m3/second | | Potential Evapotranspiration | pet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Actual Evapotranspiration | aet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Accessible Water | accessible_water | GCAM basin | km3/year | | Hydropower Generation | actual_hydro | GCAM region | EJ/year |

Climate Change↗

Scenario Creation and Power-Conditioning Strategies for Operating Power Grids with Two-Stage Stochastic Economic Dispatch

A significant difficulty associated with the use of stochastic programming to solve optimal power flow problems on a 5-minute timescale is the quality of renewable energy scenarios input by the user. This is especially true when considering power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy, e.g. wind power. This paper introduces the use of stochastic programming to solve the DC optimal power flow problem with scenarios drawn directly from high-fidelity data sets. Hence, the proposed method avoids the problem of lost physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. Furthermore, this method can be simply extended to output multi-period scenarios to the stochastic program. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

analog forecast↗

Using Visual Systems Mapping to Improve Transparency and Comparability of Life Cycle Assessment Baseline Scenarios

Visual systems mapping is a systems engineering approach used to represent complex processes and interactions. This study evaluates its application for documenting assumptions in life cycle assessment (LCA) baseline scenarios. In LCA, the baseline or reference case represents the business as usual system against which changes in impacts (e.g., emissions) are assessed. These baseline assumptions are particularly influential in biomass LCAs, yet they often vary across studies due to regional context, system boundaries, and simplifying assumptions that are not consistently or transparently documented. As a result, key feedbacks, omitted processes, and boundary choices may remain unclear, limiting comparability across studies and weakening their usefulness for decision-making. This study examines whether visual systems mapping can improve the transparency and comparability of biomass LCA baseline scenarios. A case study of five published biomass-related LCAs were reviewed, and their baseline scenarios were translated into visual system maps to identify included processes, omitted components, and underlying assumptions. The analysis demonstrates that visual systems mapping can make baseline assumptions more explicit, highlight excluded dynamics, and improve documentation of system boundaries. Based on these findings, the study recommends the use of visual systems mapping alongside open data repositories and reproducible workflows to support greater transparency, reproducibility, and comparability in LCAs. These improvements can strengthen the role of LCAs in informing decisions related to sustainable biomass systems.

Davis, Maggie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000181319328)↗

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Decarbonization scenarios of the U.S. Electricity system and their costs

Decarbonizing the electricity system to zero-carbon emission is crucial for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have shown that such a transition in the United States (U.S.) may lead to higher system cost compared to a business-as-usual case, but it is not well-known how the cost of electricity generation varies at sub-regional level under the transition, and studies have rarely evaluated the trade-off between the cost and avoided climate damages, as well as the potential roles of negative emission technologies (NETs) in the electricity decarbonization. In this work, we present a regionally resolved national model to quantify the cost of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity system under a set of possible scenarios. The results show that, compared to the reference scenario without a decarbonization policy, reaching zero CO 2 emission by 2050 would incur, depending on the scenarios, 335-494 billion USD additional cost to the U.S. electric power sector during 2020-2050. The regional costs of electricity generation ranges from 2.4 to 4.7 cent/kWh, largely due to the generation profiles and renewable resources availability of those regions. The additional costs can be translated to an average CO 2 abatement cost of 29-59 USD/metric ton CO 2 (with 2%-7% discount rates), which are comparable to the social cost of carbon in the literature at around 4% discount rate. The results also show that the cost of mitigating the last few percent CO 2 emission from the U.S. electricity system may exceed the costs of NETs, indicating an opportunity for NETs to contribute to electricity decarbonization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Caught in headlights: Captive white-tailed deer responses to variations in vehicle lighting during imminent collision scenarios

Vehicle collisions with deer (Odocoileus spp.) cause billions of dollars in damages and injure thousands of drivers every year in the United States, and few mitigation methods have proven effective. However, recent research suggests that vehicle lighting might influence white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) responses to oncoming vehicles. Most new vehicles are manufactured with light emitting diode (LED) headlights which differ in total radiance and wavelength of light emitted compared to the previous industry standard of tungstenhalogen (halogen) headlights. Also, frontal vehicle illumination through rear-facing lighting has shown promise in enhancing deer responses to vehicles, but its effectiveness has not been tested under various headlight conditions (headlight type or intensity). As such, it remains unclear how these aspects of vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle. We used 23 captive, wild-type deer to investigate how variations in vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle at night, when most collisions occur. We released deer into a 95 m long, 3 m wide chute and approached them from the opposite end with an electric golf cart outfitted with two versions of stock 2017–2020 Ford Fusion headlights (LED and halogen) and a 51 cm rear-facing lightbar to test how vehicle lighting affected deer avoidance behaviors in an imminent, head-on collision scenario. Each deer received eight lighting treatments consisting of unique combinations of headlight type (LED vs. halogen), light intensity (low vs. high beam), and rear-facing lighting (lightbar off vs. on). We measured deer alert and flight behavior using infrared videography. We found that the halogen, high beam, lightbar off treatment had the greatest probability of evoking an alert response. Furthermore, when the lightbar was off, high beams appeared to increase alert probability for halogen headlights. Also, we found evidence that high beam, halogen headlights tend to increase alert probability over high beam, LED headlights, when the lighbar was off. We found no effect of our lighting treatments on deer alert distance, flight probability, or flight initiation distance. Across all behavioral responses, the random effect deer ID explained 0.86–9.19 × more variation than our lighting treatments, reflecting large differences in responses among deer. Overall, we found that vehicle lighting can impact deer behavior during an imminent, head-on collision scenario, although lighting was ineffective at increasing favorable flight behaviors. Future research should investigate how vehicle lighting treatments affect free-ranging, wild deer in a variety of real-world scenarios and at longer approach distances.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Deer be↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using SWMM for emergency response planning: A case study evaluating biological agent transport under various rainfall scenarios and urban surfaces

To assist in emergency preparedness for a biological agent terrorist attack or accidental pathogen release, potential contaminant levels and migration pathways of spores spread by urban stormwater were evaluated using a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City, North Carolina. The high temporal-spatial resolution SWMM model was built using spore concentrations in stormwater runoff from asphalt, grass, and concrete collected from a point-scale field study. The subsequent modeled contamination scenarios included a notional plume release and point releases mimicking the field study under three rainfall conditions. The rainfall scenarios included a 6-hour natural rainfall event on Dec. 8, 2021 and two design storms (2-year and 100-year events). The observed spore concentrations from asphalt and concrete from the actual field experiment were applied to calibrate the washoff parameters in the SWMM model, using an exponential washoff function. The calibrated washoff coefficient (c 1 ) and exponent (c 2 ) were 0.01 and 1.00 for asphalt, 0.05 and 1.45 for grass, and 2.45 and 1.00 for concrete, respectively. The calibrated SWMM model simulated spore concentrations in runoff at times and magnitudes similar to the field study data. In the point release modeled scenario, the concrete surface generated 55.6% higher average spore concentrations than asphalt. Similarly, in the field experiment, a 175% (p < 0.05) higher average spore concentration in surface runoff was observed from concrete than from asphalt. Here, this study demonstrates how SWMM may be used to evaluate spore washoff from urban surfaces under different precipitation amounts, intensities, and durations, and how visualized spatial migration pathways in stormwater runoff may be used for emergency planning and remediation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗