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DOE OSTI2024

Satellite-based aerosol optical depth estimates over the continental U.S. during the 2020 wildfire season: Roles of smoke and land cover

Wildfires produce smoke that can affect an area >1000 times the burn extent, with far-reaching human health, ecologic, and economic impacts. Accurately estimating aerosol load within smoke plumes is therefore crucial for understanding and mitigating these impacts. We evaluated the effectiveness of the latest Collection 6.1 MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm in estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) across the U.S. during the historic 2020 wildfire season. We compared satellite-based MAIAC AOD to ground-based AERONET AOD measurements during no-, light-, medium-, and heavy-smoke conditions identified using the Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product. This smoke product consists of maximum extent smoke polygons digitized by analysts using visible band imagery and classified according to smoke density. We also examined the strength of the correlations between satellite- and ground-based AOD for major land cover types under various smoke density levels. MAIAC performed well in estimating AOD during smoke-affected conditions. Correlations between MAIAC and AERONET AOD were strong for medium- (r = 0.91) and heavy-smoke (r = 0.90) density, and MAIAC estimates of AOD showed little bias relative to ground-based AERONET measurements (normalized mean bias = 3 % for medium, 5 % for heavy smoke). During two high AOD, heavy smoke episodes, MAIAC underestimated ground-based AERONET AOD under mixed aerosol (i.e., smoke and dust; median bias = −0.08) and overestimated AOD under smoke-dominated (median bias = 0.02) aerosol. MAIAC most overestimated ground-based AERONET AOD over barren land (mean NMB = 48 %). Our findings indicate that MODIS MAIAC can provide robust estimates of AOD as smoke density increases in coming years. Increased frequency of mixed aerosol and expansion of developed land could affect the performance of the MAIAC algorithm in the future, however, with implications for evaluating wildfire-associated health and welfare effects and air quality standards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: galaxy sample for BAO measurement

Here, we present and validate the galaxy sample used for the analysis of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signal in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data. The definition is based on a colour and redshift-dependent magnitude cut optimized to select galaxies at redshifts higher than 0.5, while ensuring a high-quality determination. The sample covers ~ 4100 square degrees to a depth of i = 22.3 (AB) at 10σ. It contains 7,031,993 galaxies in the redshift range from z = 0.6 to 1.1, with a mean effective redshift of 0.835. Redshifts are estimated with the machine learning algorithm DNF, and are validated using the VIPERS PDR2 sample. We find a mean redshift bias of z bias ~ 0.01 and a mean uncertainty, in units of 1 + z, of σ 68 ~ 0.03$. We evaluate the galaxy population of the sample, showing it is mostly built upon Elliptical to Sbc types. Furthermore, we find a low level of stellar contamination of ≲ 4 %. We present the method used to mitigate the effect of spurious clustering coming from observing conditions and other large-scale systematics. We apply it to the BAO sample and calculate weights that are used to get a robust estimate of the galaxy clustering signal. This paper is one of a series dedicated to the analysis of the BAO signal in DES Y3. In the companion papers, we present the galaxy mock catalogues used to calibrate the analysis and the angular diameter distance constraints obtained through the fitting to the BAO scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Using dark current data to estimate AVIRIS noise covariance and improve spectral analyses

Starting in 1994, all AVIRIS data distributions include a new product useful for quantification and modeling of the noise in the reported radiance data. The 'postcal' file contains approximately 100 lines of dark current data collected at the end of each data acquisition run. In essence this is a regular spectral-image cube, with 614 samples, 100 lines and 224 channels, collected with a closed shutter. Since there is no incident radiance signal, the recorded DN measure only the DC signal level and the noise in the system. Similar dark current measurements, made at the end of each line are used, with a 100 line moving average, to remove the DC signal offset. Therefore, the pixel-by-pixel fluctuations about the mean of this dark current image provide an excellent model for the additive noise that is present in AVIRIS reported radiance data. The 61,400 dark current spectra can be used to calculate the noise levels in each channel and the noise covariance matrix. Both of these noise parameters should be used to improve spectral processing techniques. Some processing techniques, such as spectral curve fitting, will benefit from a robust estimate of the channel-dependent noise levels. Other techniques, such as automated unmixing and classification, will be improved by the stable and scene-independence noise covariance estimate. Future imaging spectrometry systems should have a similar ability to record dark current data, permitting this noise characterization and modeling.

Boardman, Joseph W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino-nucleus cross section impacts on neutrino oscillation measurements

The challenges in neutrino-nucleus cross section modeling and its impact on neutrino oscillation experiments are widely recognized. However, a comprehensive and theoretically robust estimation of cross section uncertainties has been lacking, and few studies have quantitatively examined their impact on oscillation measurements. In this work, we evaluate the effect of cross section uncertainties on oscillation parameters using setups inspired by NOvA and DUNE. To characterize these uncertainties, we adopt multiple neutrino-nucleus event generators and simulate a realistic experimental procedure that incorporates near-detector data and near-to-far-detector extrapolation. Our results confirm that cross section uncertainties cannot significantly bias oscillation results in current statistics-dominated experiments like NOvA. However, they could lead to substantial bias for future systematics-dominated experiments like DUNE, even when near-detector data are employed to mitigate uncertainties. These findings underscore the need for further studies on the quantitative impacts of cross section modeling, improved strategies to utilize near-detector data and the PRISM concept, and more robust cross section models to optimize the success of future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Near-infrared Census of RR Lyrae Variables in the Messier 3 Globular Cluster and the Period–Luminosity Relations

We present new near-infrared (NIR), JHK {sub s}, time-series observations of RR Lyrae variables in the Messier 3 (NGC 5272) globular cluster using the WIRCam instrument at the 3.6 m Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. Our observations cover a sky area of ∼21′ × 21′ around the cluster center and provide an average of 20 epochs of homogeneous JHK {sub s}-band photometry. New homogeneous photometry is used to estimate robust mean magnitudes for 175 fundamental-mode (RRab), 47 overtone-mode (RRc), and 11 mixed-mode (RRd) variables. Our sample of 233 RR Lyrae variables is the largest thus far obtained in a single cluster with time-resolved, multiband NIR photometry. NIR-to-optical amplitude ratios for RR Lyrae in Messier 3 exhibit a systematic increase moving from RRc to short-period (P < 0.6 day) and long-period (P ≳ 0.6 day) RRab variables. We derive JHK {sub s}-band period–luminosity relations for RRab, RRc, and the combined sample of variables. Absolute calibrations based on the theoretically predicted period–luminosity–metallicity relations for RR Lyrae stars yield a distance modulus, μ=15.041±0.017 (statistical)±0.036 (systematic) mag, to Messier 3. When anchored to trigonometric parallaxes for nearby RR Lyrae stars from the Hubble Space Telescope and the Gaia mission, our distance estimates are consistent with those resulting from the theoretical calibrations, albeit with relatively larger systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

The expanding photosphere method applied to SN 1992am AT cz = 14 600 km/s

We present photometry and spectroscopy of Supernova (SN) 1992am for five months following its discovery by the Calan Cerro-Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) SN search. These data show SN 1992am to be type II-P, displaying hydrogen in its spectrum and the typical shoulder in its light curve. The photometric data and the distance from our own analysis are used to construct the supernova's bolometric light curve. Using the bolometric light curve, we estimate SN 1992am ejected approximately 0.30 solar mass of Ni-56, an amount four times larger than that of other well studied SNe II. SN 1992am's; host galaxy lies at a redshift of cz = 14 600 km s(exp -1), making it one of the most distant SNe II discovered, and an important application of the Expanding Photsphere Method. Since z = 0.05 is large enough for redshift-dependent effects to matter, we develop the technique to derive luminosity distances with the Expanding Photosphere Method at any redshift, and apply this method to SN 1992am. The derived distance, D = 180(sub -25) (sup +30) Mpc, is independent of all other rungs in the extragalactic distance ladder. The redshift of SN 1992am's host galaxy is sufficiently large that uncertainties due to perturbations in the smooth Hubble flow should be smaller than 10%. The Hubble ratio derived from the distance and redshift of this single object is H(sub 0) = 81(sub -15) (sup +17) km s(exp -1) Mpc(exp -1). In the future, with more of these distant objects, we hope to establish an independent and statistically robust estimate of H(sub 0) based solely on type II supernovae.

Schmidt, Brian P.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Vision System Measures Motions of Robot and External Objects

A prototype of an advanced robotic vision system both (1) measures its own motion with respect to a stationary background and (2) detects other moving objects and estimates their motions, all by use of visual cues. Like some prior robotic and other optoelectronic vision systems, this system is based partly on concepts of optical flow and visual odometry. Whereas prior optoelectronic visual-odometry systems have been limited to frame rates of no more than 1 Hz, a visual-odometry subsystem that is part of this system operates at a frame rate of 60 to 200 Hz, given optical-flow estimates. The overall system operates at an effective frame rate of 12 Hz. Moreover, unlike prior machine-vision systems for detecting motions of external objects, this system need not remain stationary: it can detect such motions while it is moving (even vibrating). The system includes a stereoscopic pair of cameras mounted on a moving robot. The outputs of the cameras are digitized, then processed to extract positions and velocities. The initial image-data-processing functions of this system are the same as those of some prior systems: Stereoscopy is used to compute three-dimensional (3D) positions for all pixels in the camera images. For each pixel of each image, optical flow between successive image frames is used to compute the two-dimensional (2D) apparent relative translational motion of the point transverse to the line of sight of the camera. The challenge in designing this system was to provide for utilization of the 3D information from stereoscopy in conjunction with the 2D information from optical flow to distinguish between motion of the camera pair and motions of external objects, compute the motion of the camera pair in all six degrees of translational and rotational freedom, and robustly estimate the motions of external objects, all in real time. To meet this challenge, the system is designed to perform the following image-data-processing functions: The visual-odometry subsystem (the subsystem that estimates the motion of the camera pair relative to the stationary background) utilizes the 3D information from stereoscopy and the 2D information from optical flow. It computes the relationship between the 3D and 2D motions and uses a least-mean-squares technique to estimate motion parameters. The least-mean-squares technique is suitable for real-time implementation when the number of external-moving-object pixels is smaller than the number of stationary-background pixels.

Talukder, Ashit↗

DOE OSTI2025

A multi model ensemble reveals net climate benefits from regenerative practices in US Midwest croplands

Process-based cropping systems models (CSMs) are key components of measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification frameworks of carbon markets, but model-specific differences limit their applicability across diverse pedo-climatic conditions and agronomic practices. Multi-model ensemble (MME) provides an opportunity to better estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agronomic practices at scale. We used an MME across 46 million hectares of US Midwest cropland at a resolution of 4-km 2 to assess the aggregate ability of different regenerative practices to sequester SOC and N 2 O emissions compared to their counterfactual dynamic baselines. MME was validated against long-term trials and compared to its constituent CSMs, showing greater accuracy and lower uncertainty. The results show that adopting no-till combined with cover crops increased SOC stocks by 0.36 ± 0.12 Mg ha -1 yr -1 , corresponding to a net regional SOC gain of 16.4 Tg C yr -1 compared to business-as-usual baselines. These benefits are halved when each management is practiced individually, and the SOC gains are only fully realized with low initial carbon stock. By including N 2 O emissions, we can assess the overall climate mitigation potential, specifically, the extent to which carbon sequestration can offset direct N 2 O emissions. The magnitude of this potential varies depending on management practices and geographic location with net climate benefits on average ranging from 0 to 3 Mg CO 2 -eq ha -1 yr -1 . High-resolution MME results allow for robust estimates of climate mitigation, reducing barriers to carbon market participation and supporting regenerative agriculture initiatives at scale.

carbon credits↗

DOE OSTI2022

DUNE atmospheric neutrinos: Earth tomography

In this paper we show that the DUNE experiment can measure the Earth’s density profile by analyzing atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The crucial feature that enables such measurement is the detailed event reconstruction capability of liquid argon time projection chambers. This allows for studying the sub-GeV atmospheric neutrino component, which bears a rich oscillation phenomenology, strongly dependent on the matter potential sourced by the Earth. We provide a pedagogical discussion of the MSW and parametric resonances and their role in measuring the core and mantle densities. By performing a detailed simulation, accounting for particle reconstruction at DUNE, nuclear physics effects relevant to neutrino-argon interactions and several uncertainties on the atmospheric neutrino flux, we manage to obtain a robust estimate of DUNE’s sensitivity to the Earth matter profile. We find that DUNE can measure the total mass of the Earth at 9.3% precision with an exposure of 400 kton-year. By accounting for previous measurements of the total mass and moment of inertia of the Earth, the core, lower mantle and upper mantle densities can be determined with 9%, 14% and 22% precision, respectively, for the same exposure. Finally, for a low exposure run of 60 kton-year, which would correspond to two far detectors running for three years, we have found that the core density could be measured by DUNE at ∼ 30% precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiation-Induced Chemical Yields of Carbon-Centered Radicals and Hydrogen Atoms from the Gamma Irradiation of n -Dodecane

Here, this study investigates the radiolytic yields of carbon-centered radicals and hydrogen atoms in n-dodecane under gamma irradiation. Utilizing molecular iodine (I 2 ) and 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylnitrosobenzene (3tBNB) as radical scavengers, we quantified the yields of molecular hydrogen and various carbon-centered radicals formed from bond scission of the solvent excited states. The yield of primary alkyl radicals was significantly lower than that of the secondary radicals, aligning with expected stabilities and bond dissociation energies. For the overall loss of n-dodecane, total yields of 0.598 ± 0.004 species/100 eV for C–C bond scission, 1.648 ± 0.012 species/100 eV for C–H bond scission, and 3.20 ± 0.10 species/100 eV for unimolecular H 2 elimination were determined. Notably, the I 2 scavenging data provided robust estimates, while the 3tBNB displayed lower efficiency in radical trapping. This research enhances our understanding of radiolytic processes in n-dodecane and offers insights for future studies on the behavior of hydrocarbons under ionizing radiation, with implications for improving UNF reprocessing strategies.

38 - RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCL↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-specific heritability of sibling leptin concentrations and its implications for gene-environment interactions

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., leptin) is high or low relative to its distribution. Leptin concentrations are strongly related to adiposity, whose heritability is quantile dependent. Whether inheritance of leptin concentrations is quantile dependent, and whether this explains the greater heritability in women than men in accordance with their greater adiposity, and explains other gene-environment interactions, remains to be determined. Therefore, leptin and leptin receptor concentrations from 3068 siblings in 1133 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study Third Generation Cohort were analyzed. Free leptin index (FLI) was calculated as the ratio of leptin to soluble leptin receptor concentrations. Full-sib (β FS ) regression slopes were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. The analyses showed β FS increased significantly with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted leptin distribution (P linear = 0.0001), which was accelerated at the higher concentrations (P quadratic = 0.0003). β FS at the 90th percentile (0.418 ± 0.066) was 4.7-fold greater than at the 10th percentile (0.089 ± 0.032, P difference = 3.6 × 10 –6 ). Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, the β FS was greater in female sibs, which was attributable to their higher leptin concentrations. Reported gene-environment interactions involving adiposity and LEP , LEPR , MnSOD , PPARγ , PPARγ2 , and IRS-1 polymorphisms were consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity of leptin concentrations. β FS for leptin receptor concentrations and free leptin index also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions (P linear = 0.04 and P linear = 8.5 × 10 –6 , respectively). In conclusion, inherited genetic and shared environmental effects on leptin concentrations were quantile dependent, which likely explains male–female differences in heritability and some gene-environment interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy

Strong-lensing time delays enable measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) independently of other traditional methods. The main limitation to the precision of time-delay cosmography is mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD). Some of the previous TDCOSMO analyses broke the MSD by making standard assumptions about the mass density profile of the lens galaxy, reaching 2% precision from seven lenses. However, this approach could potentially bias the $H_0$ measurement or underestimate the errors. For this work, we broke the MSD for the first time using spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy in RXJ1131$-$1231 obtained from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager spectroscopy, in combination with previously published time delay and lens models derived from Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This approach allowed us to robustly estimate $H_0$, effectively implementing a maximally flexible mass model. Following a blind analysis, we estimated the angular diameter distance to the lens galaxy $D_{\rm d} = 865_{-81}^{+85}$ Mpc and the time-delay distance $D_{\Delta t} = 2180_{-271}^{+472}$ Mpc, giving $H_0 = 77.1_{-7.1}^{+7.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ - for a flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter cosmology. The error budget accounts for all uncertainties, including the MSD inherent to the lens mass profile and the line-of-sight effects, and those related to the mass-anisotropy degeneracy and projection effects. Our new measurement is in excellent agreement with those obtained in the past using standard simply parametrized mass profiles for this single system ($H_0 = 78.3^{+3.4}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) and for seven lenses ($H_0 = 74.2_{-1.6}^{+1.6}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), or for seven lenses using single-aperture kinematics and the same maximally flexible models used by us ($H_0 = 73.3^{+5.8}_{-5.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$). This agreement corroborates the methodology of time-delay cosmography.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Star formation rate and stellar mass calibrations based on infrared photometry and their dependence on stellar population age and extinction

The stellar mass (M $\star$ ) and the star formation rate (SFR) are among the most important features that characterize galaxies. Measuring these fundamental properties accurately is critical for understanding the present state of galaxies, their history, and future evolution. Infrared (IR) photometry is widely used to measure the M $\star$ and SFR of galaxies because the near-IR traces the continuum emission of the majority of their stellar populations (SPs), and the mid/far-IR traces the dust emission powered by star-forming activity. This work explores the dependence of the IR emission of galaxies on their extinction, and the age of their SPs. It aims to provide accurate and precise IR-photometry SFR and M $\star$ calibrations that account for SP age and extinction while providing quantification of their scatter. We used the CIGALE spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code to create model SEDs of galaxies with a wide range of star formation histories, dust content, and interstellar medium properties. We fit the relations between M $\star$ and SFR with IR and optical photometry of the model-galaxy SEDs with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As an independent confirmation of the MCMC fitting method, we performed a machine-learning random forest (RF) analysis on the same data set. The RF model yields similar results to the MCMC fits, thus validating the latter. This work provides calibrations for the SFR using a combination of the WISE bands 1 and 3, or the JWST NIR-F200W and MIRI-F2100W. It also provides mass-to-light ratio calibrations based on the WISE band-1, the JWST NIR-F200W, and the optical u - r or g - r colors. These calibrations account for the biases attributed to the SP age, while they are given in the form of extinction-dependent and extinction-independent relations. The proposed calibrations show robust estimations while minimizing the scatter and biases throughout a wide range of SFRs and stellar masses. The SFR calibration offers better results, especially in dust-free or passive galaxies where the contributions of old SPs or biases from the lack of dust are significant. Similarly, the M $\star$ calibration yields significantly better results for dusty and high-SFR galaxies where dust emission can otherwise bias the estimations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel application of neutrinos to evaluate U.S. nuclear weapons performance

There is a growing realization that neutrinos can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the inner workings of a nuclear weapon. Robust estimates demonstrate that an Inverse Beta Decay (IBD) neutrino scintillation detector built at the Nevada Test Site with a 1000-ton active target mass at a standoff distance of 500 m would detect thousands of antineutrino events per nuclear test. This would provide less than 4% statistical error on the measured antineutrino rate and 5% error on antineutrino energy. Extrapolating this to an error on the test device explosive yield requires knowledge from evaluated nuclear databases, non-equilibrium fission rates, and assumptions on internal neutron fluxes. Initial calculations demonstrate that the total number of neutrinos emitted per fission in the first 10 3 s after a short pulse of 239 Pu fission is about a factor of two less than that from Pu fissioning under steady state conditions. Furthermore, there are significant energy spectral differences as a function of time after the pulse that must be considered. These and other model dependencies will be discussed in the paper. In the absence of nuclear weapons testing, many of the technical and theoretical challenges of a full nuclear test could be mitigated with a low cost smaller scale 20 ton fiducial mass IBD demonstration detector placed near a pulsed reactor. Potential reactors include the Texas A&M University TRIGA 1 GW–10 ms pulsed facility or the Sandia Annular Core Research Reactor. The short duty cycle and repeatability of pulses would provide critical real environment testing and measurements, which would be valuable for planning a possible real test shot in the future. Furthermore, the antineutrino rate as a function of time data would provide unique constraints on fission databases and model assumptions. Finally, there are impactful science drivers such as sensitive searches for ∼1 eV 2 sterile neutrinos and ∼MeV scale axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Form-factor dependence of neutrino-nucleus cross sections using microscopic methods

To achieve its design goals, the next generation of neutrino-oscillation accelerator experiments requires percent-level predictions of neutrino-nucleus cross sections supplemented by robust estimates of the theoretical uncertainties involved. The latter arise from both approximations in solving the nuclear many-body problem and in the determination of the single- and few-nucleon quantities taken as input by many-body methods. To gauge the sensitivity of realistic nuclear many body methods to these few-nucleon quantities, we compute flux-averaged double-differential cross sections using the Green’s function Monte Carlo and spectral function methods as well as different parameterizations of the nucleon axial form factors based on either deuterium bubble-chamber data or lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. The cross-section results are compared with available experimental data from the MiniBooNE and T2K collaborations. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with N → Δ transition form factors that enter the two-body current operator. We quantify the relations between neutrino-nucleus cross section and nucleon form factor uncertainties. These relations enable us to determine the form factor precision targets required to achieve a given cross-section precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy shift of Fe-K fluorescence lines due to low ionization demonstrated with XRISM in Centaurus X-3

The Fe K$\alpha$ fluorescence line at 6.4 keV is a powerful probe of cold matter surrounding X-ray sources and has been widely used in various astrophysical contexts. The X-ray microcalorimeter spectrometer onboard XRISM can measure line shifts with unprecedented precision of ${\sim }$0.2 eV, equivalent to a line-of-sight velocity of ${\sim }$10 km s$^{-1}$. At this level of accuracy, however, several factors that influence the line energy must be carefully considered prior to astrophysical interpretation. One such important factor is the ionization degree, Fe$^{q+}$. The K$\alpha$ line shifts redward by ${\sim }$4 eV as q increases from 0 (neutral) to 8 (Ar-like). Additionally, the accompanying Fe K$\beta$ line at 7.06 keV shifts blueward by ${\sim }$30 eV from $q=0$ to 8. We demonstrate that this effect is actually observable in the XRISM data of the high-mass X-ray binary Centaurus X-3 (Cen X-3). We advocate that the differential energy shift between the K$\alpha$ and K$\beta$ line provides a robust estimate of q by decoupling from other effects that shift the two lines in the same direction. We derived $q \sim 5$ (Sc-like) for the fluorescing matter by comparing the observation with atomic structure calculations of our own and in the literature. By accounting for the derived charge state and the corresponding shift in the rest-frame line energy, we made corrections for this effect and reached a consistent residual shift among the K$\alpha$, K$\beta$, and the optical measurement attributable to the systemic velocity of the system. Consequently, we obtained a new constraint on the location of the cold matter. This ionization effect needs to be assessed in all use cases of the Fe K$\alpha$ line shift beyond Cen X-3, and the proposed metric is generally applicable to all of them.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗