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Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Characterizing manufacturing sector disruptions with targeted mitigation strategies

It has become clear in recent decades that manufacturing supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions of varying geographical scales and intensities. These disruptions—whether intentional, accidental, or resulting from natural disasters—cause failures and capacity reductions to manufacturing infrastructure, with lasting effects that can cascade throughout the manufacturing network. An overall lack of understanding of solutions to mitigate disturbances has rendered the challenge of reducing manufacturing supply chain vulnerability even more difficult. Additionally, the variability of disruptions and their impacts complicates policy maker and stakeholder efforts to plan for specific disruptive scenarios. It is necessary to comprehend different kinds of disturbances and group them based on stakeholder-provided metrics to support planning processes and modeling efforts that promote adaptable, resilient manufacturing supply chains. This paper reviews existing methods for risk management in manufacturing supply chains and the economic and environmental impacts of disruptions. In addition, we develop a framework using agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify disruptions using U.S. manufacturing network data between 2000 and 2021 and characteristic metrics defined in the literature. Our review identifies five groups of disruptions and discusses both general mitigation methods and strategies targeting each identified group. Further, we highlight gaps in the literature related to estimating and including environmental costs in disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. We also discuss the lack of easily available metrics to quantify environmental impacts of disruptions and how such metrics could be included into our methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based intelligent maintenance optimization framework for safety-critical systems

Abstract Maintenance optimization is a process for improving the efficiency of maintenance strategies and activities, considering various aspects of the target system and components, such as the probabilities of system failures and the cost of repair and replacement of a failed component. The improvement of maintenance optimization algorithms generally requires information from various data sources. For example, it may require the system risk information derived from risk analysis tools or the residual lifetime of a component from fault prognosis tools. The requirements of data acquisition (DAQ) and aggregation pose new challenges for maintenance management systems (MMSs) that implement and use these maintenance optimization algorithms. This paper proposes a multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based framework to facilitate DAQ from MMSs, online monitoring systems, fault detection and discrimination tools, risk assessment tools, decision-making tools, and component identification tools, and accelerate the implementation and verification of contemporary maintenance optimization models and algorithms. The proposed framework consists of a multi-aspect maintenance ontology with critical information for maintenance optimization and application interfaces for collecting information from various data sources, such as fault prognosis tools, online monitoring tools, risk assessment tools, and decision-making algorithms. In addition, this paper proposes a heuristic method for integrating concepts and properties from other existing ontologies into the proposed framework when the existing ontology is not fully compatible with the ontology under construction. Finally, the paper verifies the proposed ontology framework using a feedwater system designed for nuclear power plants with valves and filters as the components under maintenance.

Diao, Xiaoxu (ORCID:0000000346726352)↗

Transforming Cyber Education thru Open to All Accessible Pathways

Boise State University’s (BSU) Cyber Operations and Resilience CORe program was intentionally designed so that any student, especially non-traditional and non-technical students, with an interest in cybersecurity could have an education and training pathway to enter the cyber workforce. The CORe curriculum focuses on teaching students how to design, apply, and improve cybersecurity through the interaction of people, processes, and technology. CORe is a stackable curriculum with elective credit hours and options for various academic and industry certificates and certifications that enable students to customize their unique career pathway. The CORe program guides students to think about the system being managed, the risks presented, and the dynamic intersection of system elements when considering how to incorporate resilience frameworks in achieving a resilient system. By developing systems thinking, the students gain an understanding of the interdependencies interacting with the operational system. Further, the CORe program encourages students to integrate cybersecurity knowledge with models and frameworks found in other academic disciplines through a unifying systems approach. CORe is designed around the realities of today’s broad cyber landscape: that breaches will occur in any system over time and proactive design of resilience into systems to detect, respond, and recover in a timely and orderly manner is critical. Students are taught to think holistically about cybersecurity focusing on all system elements. CORe is not a traditional cybersecurity degree. CORe is distinguished by the non-traditional engineering, computer science approach to cybersecurity education with the singular focus on infusing resilience operations and transdisciplinary systems thinking principles throughout the curriculum.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Resilience Assessment Framework For Electric Distribution Systems Performance Under Extreme Conditions

The devastating impact of extreme weather-related events is increasingly evident on power grids, especially on distribution grids. The severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing a suitable resilience assessment framework to capture the system performance and 2) assessing relevant mitigative strategies to lessen the impact of such events. This paper proposes a framework to identify grid vulnerabilities using the energy-at-risk concept to select, disconnect and isolate grid portions due to a resilience event. The proposed framework mainly consists of two steps; i) processing the utility's available infrastructure, i.e., a network model, possible switching combinations, and outage information for those combinations, as a graph-based database, and ii) implementing a novel optimal switching algorithm leveraging database and grid simulated metrics. These switching actions are generated to implement load curtailment in a rolling manner during anticipated grid scarcity conditions. In this study, a test case is created using two taxonomy feeders and is simulated against an extreme temperature event, e.g., a long, relatively cold, and prolonged freeze peak, thereby creating stress on the grid. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework allows utilities to predict the energy-at-risk during such resilience events and design suitable outage management strategies.

Poudel, Shiva↗

Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances

Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.

Coastal Biogeochemistry↗

Enhanced Iodine Capture Using a Postsynthetically Modified Thione–Silver Zeolitic Imidazole Framework

Efficient management of radionuclides that are released from various processes in the nuclear fuel cycle is of significant importance. Among these nuclides, radioactive iodine (mainly 129 I and 131 I) is a major concern due to the risk it poses to the environment and to human health; thus, the development of materials that can capture and safely store radioactive iodine is crucial. Herein, a novel silver-thione-functionalized zeolitic imidazole framework (ZIF) was synthesized via post-synthetic modification and assessed for its iodine uptake capabilities alongside the parent ZIF-8 and intermediate materials. A solvent-assisted ligand exchange procedure was used to replace the 2-methylimidazole linkers in ZIF-8 with 2-mercaptoimidazole, forming the intermediate compound ZIF-8=S, which was reacted with AgNO 3 to yield the ZIF-8=S-Ag + composite for iodine uptake. Despite possessing the lowest BET surface area of the derivatives, the Ag-functionalized material demonstrated superior I 2 adsorption in terms of both maximum capacity (550 g I 2 /mol) and rapid kinetics (50% loading achieved in 5 hrs, saturation in 50 hrs) compared to our pristine ZIF-8, which reached 450 g I 2 /mol after 150 hours and 50% loading in 25 hours. This improvement is attributed to the presence of the Ag + ions, which provide a strong chemical driving force to form stable Ag-I species. In conclusion, the results of this study contribute to a broader understanding of the strategies that can be employed to engineer adsorbents with robust iodine uptake behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

1.3.3.402 - Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework tool will guide users through an assessment and detailed analysis of a hydropower plant's operations. The tool will then provide results and data to inform effective cybersecurity investment decision-making and planning. The results will help managers understand the risk probability of cyberattacks on their facilities and how best to use resources to mitigate those risks.

cybersecurity↗

Georgetown University – SYSM 5630 Systems Integration Verification and Validation : Todd Noste

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the National Ignition Facility Optics Group, we use the systems engineering approach for project management and as a design tool. Systems engineering is used in a graded approach to design and project management that is based on risk, informing how much rigor to apply. The tools and techniques from systems engineering offer a framework to organize projects with everyone speaking the same language to provide consistent and repeatable project success that satisfies the stakeholders’ needs and meets the mission. The classes have provided a framework with tools for communicating system design, requirements, verification and validation, and an operational context.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Aggregation and Grid Security Workshop Report

The Aggregation and Grid Security Workshop - held on June 17-18, 2025, National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) in Golden, Colorado - brought together approximately 40 external stakeholders from the energy sector, including VPP owner/operators, aggregators, OEMs, utilities, testing & certification labs, trade associations, and cybersecurity vendors. Led by key facilitators, the workshop focused on addressing cybersecurity challenges and enhancing grid resilience for aggregated Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). The workshop was catalyzed by recognition that traditional, rearward-looking regulatory frameworks are insufficient to keep pace with technological change. There is a "missing understanding" of risk, an "absent security basis" for managing it, and an "untenable responsibility" due to unclear ownership and requirements. The workshop aimed to shift the mindset from reacting to past crises to proactively preparing for emerging threats, fostering forward resilience through risk simulation and collaborative action. This report summarizes the outcomes of the workshop, marking it a significant step toward a secure, reliable and affordable energy future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Expected occurrence of wildlife in US Atlantic offshore wind areas

Offshore wind energy has entered a pivotal phase of development for the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), a region that supports critical habitats, migratory corridors and flyways for many marine species. Assessing where and when marine wildlife occurs is a crucial first step in developing a risk assessment framework to evaluate potential risks and impacts of offshore wind development. In this study, we perform this initial assessment by evaluating the expected occurrence of marine mammal, seabird and sea turtle taxa in areas of interest to identify patterns and potential areas of concern. Specifically, this work depicts the expected monthly density of 84 marine species and taxa within each of the 29 active wind energy lease areas plus a 10 km buffer to account for nearby activity. We then compare these densities to subregional thresholds, evaluated as the 90th percentile of the subregion’s monthly density, to provide comparisons across the shelf region. This analysis synthesizes the most recent spatial distribution models of 31 marine mammal taxa (26 species and 5 guilds), 49 seabird species and 4 sea turtle species to provide a unified evaluation of the major marine wildlife in the region. Out of the 84 species and taxa analyzed, 56 exhibit levels of expected density in wind energy areas that exceed the corresponding 90th percentile subregional threshold at some point throughout the year. These results represent an initial assessment in the broader Occurrence, Exposure, Response, and Consequence (OERC) framework, originally developed by the U.S. Navy for marine species risk assessments. These results offer valuable guidance to marine spatial planners, management agencies and offshore wind developers on the expected locations and timing of interaction risk to wildlife species in or near wind energy areas across the region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A template of information needs for decision-making about delaying remediation on contaminated lands to protect human health

The contamination legacy of industrialization, militarization, and nuclear arms race poses current or future risks to populations and the environment. Responsible parties and regulators make decisions regarding which sites to clean up, how, how much, and when. This study aimed to provide an information needs template to evaluate and reduce risks to human health when considering whether to initiate or delay remediation. This investigation focused on four aspects of timing and prioritization: 1) management, planning and implementation, 2) source terms, pathways, and exposures, 3) risks and receptors, and 4) external drivers. Within each type, issues were identified and described. Management class included personnel, health and safety data, funding, equipment, and structural integrity. Source term included contaminant sources, pathways, initiating events, and barriers to exposure. Risk included types and exposures to workers and general public. External drivers included regulatory framework, stakeholders, Congressional mandates, and economic and social contexts. Risk may increase over time as contamination spreads, enters aquifers, and reaches receptors, and may decline as radionuclides decay, and plumes dissipate. The overall objective was to provide a template of information that is useful to managers and regulators, and might be used by the public to understand the risks and benefits of re-prioritization cleanup.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Panel Session 88: Waste Management from Remediation of Legacy Sites or Unplanned Releases

This panel focused on the progression of cleanup on the Hanford Site, Washington, USA, from establishing the regulatory framework necessary for cleanup, to understanding the risks and addressing near-term hazards, to moving to 24/7 operations as cleanup focuses on tank waste treatment and co-located risk reduction efforts as the active cleanup footprint shrinks. Panelists with presentations: Hanford: Past, Present, Future (Brian Vance); Protecting the River (L. Ty Blackford); Hanford Tank Farms (John Eschenberg Jr.); The Hanford Site (Robert Wilkinson); The Hanford Site (Valerie McCain)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

INTEGRATION OF DATA ANALYTICS WITH SYSTEM HEALTH PROGRAMS

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry developed and regulatory programs. However, these programs have proven to be labor intensive and expensive. There is an opportunity to significantly enhance the collection, analysis, and use of this information to provide more cost-effective plant operation. Additionally, there is an acute industry need to leverage advanced technology to reduce costs and improve operational effectiveness. The goal of this paper is to provide effective and efficient analytical methods and tools to support risk-informed decisions for the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. This is accomplished by creating a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). Here we are supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component ageing management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where herein the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow. A challenge is that the structure of this workflow strongly depends on the decision that needs to be made, the type of data available, and the constraints that need to be considered. Current methods are designed to provide specific answers to specific problems; however, these methods might prove to be inadequate even when problem settings slightly change (e.g., different types of requirements, additional dependencies between system reliability and economics). We tackled this challenge by designing framework in a flexible and modular fashion such that the user can assemble and customize his/her own workflow that integrates SSC economic lifecycle models (e.g., maintenance and replacement costs), system reliability models, and optimization methods.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Risk Assessment Information System Compendium of Ecological Screening Benchmarks for Chemicals and Radionuclides (2025) (Volume I – Text, Radionuclides for all Media, Chemicals for Air and Biota)

The Risk Assessment Information System Ecological Benchmark Tool compiles screening level benchmark values for assessing potential ecological risks posed by chemical and radionuclide contaminants. Drawing from a wide array of federal, state, and international sources, it consolidates benchmarks across environmental media, including soil, water, sediment, air, and biota, and presents values for a broad range of receptors and exposure pathways. The tool includes both effect-based and no-effect thresholds, with media- and organism-specific guidance derived from peer-reviewed literature and regulatory frameworks. By integrating diverse benchmark types into a unified reference, the tool supports consistent, scientifically grounded evaluations in ecological risk assessments and environmental management practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗