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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabalistic Risk Analysis and Thermal Margin Process for an Inflatable Aeroshell

Uncertainties always exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. These uncertainties are mitigated in the design by ap-plying margin and factors of safety to the TPS. Entry vehicle TPS is often conservatively over-sized for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by stacking worst-case scenarios together. Additionally, the current TPS design and margin process used by NASA offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the reliability of the heat shield performance [1,3]. A probabilistic margin process can be used to calculate the amount of TPS margin necessary to survive a given entry heat load at a specified level of risk [2,3,4]. The vehicle’s initial entry state (entry velocity, flight path angle, and entry mass) determines the expected atmospheric entry environmental conditions and resulting heat load that the entry vehicle will experience. If there is flexibility in the entry state, then this process can be used to select an appropriate combination of entry state parameters and TPS size to target a desired reentry reliability. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and TPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive TPS margin from being applied. The probabilistic TPS margin process has been performed to determine TPS thickness and entry heating constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low Earth Orbit Flight Experiment of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) flight project. The process is used in a manner to size the entry heat load for a given flexible TPS (FTPS) thickness so that it meets project reliability standards while allowing the FTPS and the underlying inflatable structure (IS) to be pushed to adequately high temperatures. Since the LOFTID project is an experimental flight demonstration, it is de-sired to drive the FTPS and IS to temperatures that cover a large range of their thermal response models’ applicability. This will allow the thermal response models to be better improved and validated post-flight using LOFTID’s extensive instrumentation embedded within the aeroshell. The presentation demonstrates how uncertainty analysis is carried out using an end-to-end Monte Carlo process where three separate Monte Carlo simulations are run in sequence. The first Monte Carlo simulation operates on the entry trajectory model to generate trajectory parameter dispersions that are fed into the second Monte Carlo simulation. The second Monte Carlo simulation operates on the aerothermodynamics model to generate aeroheating parameter dispersions that are fed into the third Monte Carlo simulation. The third Monte Carlo simulation operates on the FTPS material thermal response model to generate the final FTPS/IS thermal response dispersions. The end-to-end Monte Carlo simulation propagates the uncertainties of each model into the next to quantify the resulting uncertainty of the FTPS/IS thermal response. The fractional contributions of the uncertain parameters in the trajectory, aerothermal, and thermal response models to the variance in the FTPS/IS thermal response is determined as a byproduct of the Monte Carlo analysis. The structural uncertainty of the FTPS thermal response model is evaluated by flight relevant ground testing and model error analysis using test measurements. This probabilistic TPS margin process had never been applied to an entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven A. Tobin↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analytical screening of low emissions, high performance duct burners for supersonic cruise aircraft engines

An analytical screening study was conducted to identify duct burner concepts capable of providing low emissions and high performance in advanced supersonic engines. Duct burner configurations ranging from current augmenter technology to advanced concepts such as premix-prevaporized burners were defined. Aerothermal and mechanical design studies provided the basis for screening these configurations using the criteria of emissions, performance, engine compatibility, cost, weight and relative risk. Technology levels derived from recently defined experimental low emissions main burners are required to achieve both low emissions and high performance goals. A configuration based on the Vorbix (Vortex burning and mixing) combustor concept was analytically determined to meet the performance goals and is consistent with the fan duct envelope of a variable cycle engine. The duct burner configuration has a moderate risk level compatible with the schedule of anticipated experimental programs.

Lohmann, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Systems-Level Approach to Address Risks and Ethics in Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the world, from completely controlling routine or mundane tasks like text and image generation, to powering advanced algorithms that control critical systems. The recent advances in generative AI quickly overwhelmed multiple industries from education to finance as first adopters rushed (and continue to rush) to take advantage of the technology. The expanding AI ecosystem presents novel risks and ethical challenges that must be handled to ensure that technology is leveraged fairly and ethically. There are intertwined risks and ethical challenges stemming from the stochastic nature of AI (i.e., intrinsic risks), as well as from specific applications (i.e., extrinsic risks). Appropriately regulating AI requires a systems-approach to develop an integrated solution to these dependent challenges. Thus far, however, questions of risk, ethics and regulation appear to occupy separate spaces. This paper reviews the risks and ethical implications of AI and proposes a system-level approach to integrating ethics and regulation for the nascent industry.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CHP-PRA Proof-of-Concept [Simulation] Sensitivity Assessment

An effort is underway to establish a Crew Health and Performance system (CHP) tradespace tool using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling and simulation system. The goal of the CHP-PRA effort is to provide a means of quantifying the integrated influence of CHP functions and capabilities on risk outcome metrics associated with health, performance, and long-term health. These metrics can then be used to establish potential risk-based trades on CHP system designed functionality and capabilities. Previously, our team demonstrated a proof-of-concept PRA approach that estimated the integrated influence of exercise countermeasures on 8 human system risks (Figure 1a) with outcomes associated with health and medical risk metrics. We reported that the change in the integrated relative health risk was small (Figure 1b) and that the small change in overall risk resulted from compounding and competing contribution levels of the individual risks. This interesting observation illustrates the emergent complexity of even straightforward representations of the human health and performance risk space and the ability of PRA models to capture this balance of global risk concerns. A key question that is not addressed in the initial analysis is “even though the global risk is relatively nominal, do any of the local risks become unacceptable?” In essence, we seek to determine what relative change in the human system risks are contributing to the relatively muted sensitivity of the proof-of-concept model combined risk assessments. Evaluations at the component risk level should elucidate if any individual risk reaches a high level that is subsequentially balanced by reductions in other areas. To further understand the relative changes in the component risks in the proof-of-concept model, and to elucidate how future refinements can be targeted, a means of establishing the contributions of the robustness of the proof-of-concept approach will be demonstrated.

astronaut health↗

NASA NTRS2008

Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

Nickol, Craig L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human System Drivers for Exploration Missions

Evaluation of DRM4 in terms of the human system includes the ability to meet NASA standards, the inclusion of the human system in the design trade space, preparation for future missions and consideration of a robotic precursor mission. Ensuring both the safety and the performance capability of the human system depends upon satisfying NASA Space Flight Human System Standards.1 These standards in turn drive the development of program-specific requirements for Near-earth Object (NEO) missions. In evaluating DRM4 in terms of these human system standards, the currently existing risk models, technologies and biological countermeasures were used. A summary of this evaluation is provided below in a structure that supports a mission architecture planning activities. 1. Unacceptable Level of Risk The duration of the DRM4 mission leads to an unacceptable level of risk for two aspects of human system health: A. The permissible exposure limit for space flight radiation exposure (a human system standard) would be exceeded by DRM4. B. The risk of visual alterations and abnormally high intracranial pressure would be too high. 1

Kundrot, Craig E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Edwards, Michelle↗

DOE OSTI2024

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗

NASA NTRS2007

Assessment of Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) Risk for 3 Different Tasks Constructing and Repairing Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) Blankets, Preparing the Dough for a Pizza, and Operating the Becton-Dickinson FACSAria Flow Cytometer

The Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) risks for three different tasks using McCauley-Bell and Badiru's (1993) formula based on task, personal, and organizational factors were examined. For the Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) blanket task, the results showed that the task, personal, and organizational risks were at about the same level. The personal risk factors for this task were evaluated using a hypothetical female employee age 52. For the pizza dough task, it was shown that the organizational risk was particularly high, with task related factors also at quite dangerous levels. On the other hand, there was a very low level of personal risk factors, based on a female age 17. The flow cytometer task was assessed with three different participants, a11 of whom had quite disparate levels of personal risk, which slightly affected the overall CTD risk. This reveals how individual difference variables certainly need to be considered. The task and organizational risks for this task were rated at about the same moderate level. The overall CTD risk averaged across the three participants was .335, indicating some risk. Compruing across the tasks revealed that the pizza dough task created the greatest overall CTD risk by far (.568), with the MLI (.325) and flow cytometer task (.335) having some risk associated with them. Future research should look into different tasks for more of a comparison

Gentzler, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2008

Launch Risk Acceptability: The Public Speaks

The perspective of those assuming risk has become increasingly important to launch agencies. The IAASS white paper "An ICAO for Space?" proposed four ultimate goals of any international regulatory framework. The first of these was to "Ensure that citizens of all nations are equally protected from "unreasonable levels" of risk from overflight by missiles, launch vehicles and returning spacecraft". A key component of this concept is the issue of what is an "unreasonable level" of risk from the perspective of those assuming the risk.

Haber, Jerold M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

NSBRI Radiation Effects: Carcinogenesis in Sprague-Dawley Rats Irradiated with Iron Ions, Protons, or Photons

Our ability to confidently develop appropriate countermeasures for radiations in space in terms of shielding and design of a spacecraft, the mission scenario, or chemoprevention is severely limited by the uncertainties in both the risk itself and the change in that risk with intervention. Despite the fact that the risk of carcinogenesis from exposures of personnel to radiations on long-term missions is considered one of the worst hazards in space, only a limited amount of in-vivo data exist for tumor induction from exposures to protons or energetic heavy ions (HZEs) at lower doses. The most extensive work remains the landmark study. for tumor development in the harderian gland of the mouse. The objective of this study is to characterize the level of risk for tumor induction in another relevant animal model. Subsequent experiments are designed to test the hypothesis that the level of risk can be reduced by pharmaceutical intervention in the promoting and progressing stages of the disease rather than in the initiating stage. The work presented here results from a cooperative effort on the part of investigators from two projects of the Radiation-Effects Team of the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI). The collaborating projects are the Core Project which is investigating the risk of carcinogenesis in Sprague-Dawley rats and the Chemoprevention Project which is investigating the ability of Tamoxifen to reduce the number of malignant tumors in the irradiated animals. Research at the cellular and subcellular levels is being conducted in two other projects of the Radiation-Effects Team, Cytogenetics with J. R. Williams as Principal Investigator and Mutations from Repeated DNA Sequences. Results for these other projects also are being presented at this Workshop.

Dicello, J. F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interface Consistency: Phase I Results & Phase II Status

Future exploration missions will rely on designing and developing vehicles and complex systems from within NASA and through multiple external commercial partners to meet mission goals. Despite existing consistency-related agency requirements, NASA’s approach to commercial spaceflight development encourages providers’ flexibility and innovation. This strategy is resulting in significant design diversity across Artemis vehicles. Design best practices and guidelines champion interface consistency to promote mental model development and knowledge transfer. However, research investigating the benefits of consistency is mixed, and little is known about its role in complex systems. Determining the level of risk that system diversity presents is difficult, as there is no established method for quantifying the degree of consistency within and across interfaces, nor is there information about the differential impacts of different types of inconsistency. Phase I of this project (Characterization and Measurement) served as a starting point to better understand the construct of consistency, its application, and the range of studies and methods for measuring it. The project team created a taxonomy of consistency to apply to interfaces as a framework to guide the development of tools to assess intersystem consistency. Checklist and cognitive walkthrough methods were developed for use by human factors (HF) and human-computer interaction (HCI) experts. The Intersystem Consistency Scale (ICS) was developed for interface evaluations with crew. A pilot study evaluated the methods’ ability to distinguish differences between Artemis-like prototype pairs exhibiting either high or low design consistency. In addition, click errors and time on task were collected within the ICS (crew-like) group. Results from our exploratory analysis and lessons learned from the pilot study will be discussed. The project team will also present the status of Phase II (Risk Assessment, Standards and Guidelines). This includes incorporating feedback to redesign the assessment tools, and inputs from displays and training Subject Matter Experts to update tasks and prototype designs. The team will present the risk assessment study design to identify the types and levels of inconsistency that pose the greatest risk to performance. Plans to apply these results toward agency standards and guideline recommendations will also be discussed.

Human-Computer Interaction↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Role and Quality of Software Safety in the NASA Constellation Program

In this study, we examine software safety risk in the early design phase of the NASA Constellation spaceflight program. Obtaining an accurate, program-wide picture of software safety risk is difficult across multiple, independently-developing systems. We leverage one source of safety information, hazard analysis, to provide NASA quality assurance managers with information regarding the ongoing state of software safety across the program. The goal of this research is two-fold: 1) to quantify the relative importance of software with respect to system safety; and 2) to quantify the level of risk presented by software in the hazard analysis. We examined 154 hazard reports created during the preliminary design phase of three major flight hardware systems within the Constellation program. To quantify the importance of software, we collected metrics based on the number of software-related causes and controls of hazardous conditions. To quantify the level of risk presented by software, we created a metric scheme to measure the specificity of these software causes. We found that from 49-70% of hazardous conditions in the three systems could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. Furthermore, 10-12% of all controls were software-based. There is potential for inaccuracy in these counts, however, as software causes are not consistently scoped, and the presence of software in a cause or control is not always clear. The application of our software specificity metrics also identified risks in the hazard reporting process. In particular, we found a number of traceability risks in the hazard reports may impede verification of software and system safety.

Layman, Lucas↗

NASA NTRS2013

PRA and Conceptual Design

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

DeMott, Diana↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Tavana, Madjid↗

NASA NTRS2015

Systems Engineering Lessons Learned for Class D Missions

One of NASA's goals within human exploration is to determine how to get humans to Mars safely and to live and work on the Martian surface. To accomplish this goal, several smaller missions act as stepping-stones to the larger end goal. NASA uses these smaller missions to develop new technologies and learn about how to survive outside of Low Earth Orbit for long periods. Additionally, keeping a cadence of these missions allows the team to maintain proficiency in the complex art of bringing spacecraft to fruition. Many of these smaller missions are robotic in nature and have smaller timescales, whereas there are others that involve crew and have longer mission timelines. Given the timelines associated with these various missions, different levels of risk and rigor need to be implemented to be more in line with what is appropriate for the mission. Thus, NASA has four different classifications that range from Class A to Class D based on the mission details. One of these projects is the Resource Prospector (RP) Mission, which is a multi-center and multi-institution collaborative project to search for volatiles in the polar regions of the Moon. The RP mission is classified as a Class D mission and as such, has the opportunity to more tightly manage, and therefore accept, greater levels of risk. The requirements for Class D missions were at the forefront of the design and thus presented unique challenges in vehicle development and systems engineering processes. This paper will discuss the systems engineering process at NASA and how that process is tailored for Class D missions, specifically the RP mission.

Rojdev, Kristina↗

NASA NTRS2010

Occupant Protection at NASA

This slide presentation reviews NASA's efforts to arrive at protection of occupants of the ORION space craft on landing. An Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) has been developed, it is an anatomically-based, consensus-derived, global severity scoring system that classifies each injury by body region according to its relative importance on a 6-point ordinal scale. It reviews an Operationmally Relevant Injury Scale (ORIS), a classification methodology, and shows charts that detail the results of applying this ORIS to the injury databases. One chart uses NASCAR injury classification. It discusses providing a context for the level of risk inherent in the Orion landings in terms that people understand and have a sense for. For example is the risk of injury during an Orion landing roughly the same, better or worse than: An aircraft carrier landing, a NASCAR crash, or a helicopter crash, etc? The data for NASCAR and Indy Racing league (IRL) racing crash and injury data was reviewed. The risk from the Air Force, Navy, and Army injury data was also reviewed. Past NASA and the Soyuz programs injury risks are also reviewed. The work is an attempt to formulate a recommendation to the Orion Project for an acceptable level of injury risk associated with Nominal and Off-Nominal landing cases. The presentation also discusses the data mining and use of the data to Validate NASA Operationally-Relevant Injury Scale (NORIS) / Military Operationally-Relevant Injury Scale (MORIS), developing injury risk criteria, the types of data that are required, NASCAR modeling techniques and crash data, and comparison with the Brinkley model. The development of injury risk curves for each biodynamic response parameter is discussed. One of the main outcomes of this work is to establish an accurate Automated Test Dummy (ATD) that can be used to measure human tolerances.

Somers, Jeffrey↗