Performance Factor Response Surfaces for Performance Assessment
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Mariner, Paul Edwin [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
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Adaptive Polynomial Response Surfaces and Level-1 Probability Boxes for Propagating and Representing Aleatory and Epistemic Components of Uncertainty.
Abstract not provided.
Romero, Vicente J.↗
Effect of error in spectral measurements of solar simulators on surface response
Effect of measurement error in spectral distribution of solar simulators
Curtis, H. B.↗
Development of Response Surface Models for Rapid Analysis and Multidisciplinary Optimization of Launch Vehicle Design Concepts
Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) is an important step in the design and evaluation of launch vehicles, since it has a significant impact on performance and lifecycle cost. The objective in MDO is to search the design space to determine the values of design parameters that optimize the performance characteristics subject to system constraints. Vehicle Analysis Branch (VAB) at NASA Langley Research Center has computerized analysis tools in many of the disciplines required for the design and analysis of launch vehicles. Vehicle performance characteristics can be determined by the use of these computerized analysis tools. The next step is to optimize the system performance characteristics subject to multidisciplinary constraints. However, most of the complex sizing and performance evaluation codes used for launch vehicle design are stand-alone tools, operated by disciplinary experts. They are, in general, difficult to integrate and use directly for MDO.
Unal, Resit↗
Design for Reliability using Response Surface Methodology
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Peter A Parker↗
Improvements to Calibration Modeling of a Tri-Axial Accelerometer Using Response Surface Methods
Aerodynamic ground test facilities require precision attitude measurements to support fundamental research and aerodynamic vehicle characterization. Accelerometers are used as one solution for measuring test article attitude. Several wind-tunnel facilities experience elevated temperatures during sustained testing of approximately 38°C (100°F) and extremes up to 149°C (300°F). Accelerometer thermal corrections are required to maintain attitude measurement accuracy during elevated temperature tunnel conditions. This manuscript details characterization of non-linear and thermal effects of the Mini/MEMs Tri-Axis Sensor System (MTASS) developed at NASA. Non-linear effects are characterized using a two-axis index head, and temperature effects are characterized using a metallic cube in a thermal chamber. The results show a significant decrease in back-computed residuals for room temperature and elevated temperatures experiments.
Accelerometer↗
Improvements to Calibration Modeling of a Tri-Axial Accelerometer Using Response Surface Methods
Aerodynamic ground test facilities require precision attitude measurements to support fundamental research and aerodynamic vehicle characterization. Accelerometers are used as one solution for measuring test article attitude. Several wind-tunnel facilities experience elevated temperatures during sustained testing of approximately 38°C (100°F) and extremes up to 149°C (300°F). Accelerometer thermal corrections are required to maintain attitude measurement accuracy during elevated temperature tunnel conditions. This manuscript details characterization of non-linear and thermal effects of the Mini/MEMs Tri-Axis Sensor System (MTASS) developed at NASA. Non-linear effects are characterized using a two-axis index head, and temperature effects are characterized using a metallic cube in a thermal chamber. The results show a significant decrease in back-computed residuals for room temperature and elevated temperatures experiments.
Accelerometer↗
Updates and improvements to the satellite drag coefficient Response Surface Modeling toolkit
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Phillip Logan Sheridan↗
A useful approximation for the flat surface impulse response
The flat surface impulse response (FSIR) is a very useful quantity in computing the mean return power for near-nadir-oriented short-pulse radar altimeters. However, for very small antenna beamwidths and relatively large pointing angles, previous analytical descriptions become very difficult to compute accurately. An asymptotic approximation is developed to overcome these computational problems. Since accuracy is of key importance, a condition is developed under which this solution is within 2 percent of the exact answer. The asymptotic solution is shown to be in functional agreement with a conventional clutter power result and gives a 1.25-dB correction to this formula to account properly for the antenna-pattern variation over the illuminated area.
Brown, Gary S.↗
Applications of Response Surface-Based Methods to Noise Analysis in the Conceptual Design of Revolutionary Aircraft
Due to the growing problem of noise in today's air transportation system, there have arisen needs to incorporate noise considerations in the conceptual design of revolutionary aircraft. Through the use of response surfaces, complex noise models may be converted into polynomial equations for rapid and simplified evaluation. This conversion allows many of the commonly used response surface-based trade space exploration methods to be applied to noise analysis. This methodology is demonstrated using a noise model of a notional 300 passenger Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) transport. Response surfaces are created relating source noise levels of the BWB vehicle to its corresponding FAR-36 certification noise levels and the resulting trade space is explored. Methods demonstrated include: single point analysis, parametric study, an optimization technique for inverse analysis, sensitivity studies, and probabilistic analysis. Extended applications of response surface-based methods in noise analysis are also discussed.
Hill, Geoffrey A.↗
Probabilistic Design of a Wind Tunnel Model to Match the Response of a Full-Scale Aircraft
approach is presented for carrying out the reliability-based design of a plate-like wing that is part of a wind tunnel model. The goal is to design the wind tunnel model to match the stiffness characteristics of the wing box of a flight vehicle while satisfying strength-based risk/reliability requirements that prevents damage to the wind tunnel model and fixtures. The flight vehicle is a modified F/A-18 aircraft. The design problem is solved using reliability-based optimization techniques. The objective function to be minimized is the difference between the displacements of the wind tunnel model and the corresponding displacements of the flight vehicle. The design variables control the thickness distribution of the wind tunnel model. Displacements of the wind tunnel model change with the thickness distribution, while displacements of the flight vehicle are a set of fixed data. The only constraint imposed is that the probability of failure is less than a specified value. Failure is assumed to occur if the stress caused by aerodynamic pressure loading is greater than the specified strength allowable. Two uncertain quantities are considered: the allowable stress and the thickness distribution of the wind tunnel model. Reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with response surfaces that provide approximate values of stresses. The response surface equations are, in turn, computed from finite element analyses of the wind tunnel model at specified design points. Because the response surface approximations were fit over a small region centered about the current design, the response surfaces were refit periodically as the design variables changed. Coarse-grained parallelism was used to simultaneously perform multiple finite element analyses. Studies carried out in this paper demonstrate that this scheme of using moving response surfaces and coarse-grained computational parallelism reduce the execution time of the Monte Carlo simulation enough to make the design problem tractable. The results of the reliability-based designs performed in this paper show that large decreases in the probability of stress-based failure can be realized with only small sacrifices in the ability of the wind tunnel model to represent the displacements of the full-scale vehicle.
Mason, Brian H.↗
Eddy Compensation Dampens Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Westerly Wind Trends
Anthropogenic influences have led to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (SO), especially during austral summer. We use observations, an idealized eddy‐resolving ocean‐sea ice channel model, and a global coupled model to explore the SO response to a step‐change in westerly winds. Previous work hypothesized a two timescale response for sea surface temperature. Initially, Ekman transport cools the surface before sustained upwelling causes warming on decadal timescales. The fast response is robust across our models and the observations: we find Ekman‐driven cooling in the mixed layer, mixing‐driven warming below the mixed layer, and a small upwelling‐driven warming at the temperature inversion. The long‐term response is inaccessible from observations. Neither of our models shows a persistent upwelling anomaly, or long‐term, upwelling‐driven subsurface warming. Mesoscale eddies act to oppose the anomalous wind‐driven upwelling, through a process known as eddy compensation, thereby preventing long‐term warming.
Southern Annular Mode↗
Optimization of Car Body under Constraints of Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH), and Crash
To be competitive on the today's market, cars have to be as light as possible while meeting the Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) requirements and conforming to Government-man dated crash survival regulations. The latter are difficult to meet because they involve very compute-intensive, nonlinear analysis, e.g., the code RADIOSS capable of simulation of the dynamics, and the geometrical and material nonlinearities of a thin-walled car structure in crash, would require over 12 days of elapsed time for a single design of a 390K elastic degrees of freedom model, if executed on a single processor of the state-of-the-art SGI Origin2000 computer. Of course, in optimization that crash analysis would have to be invoked many times. Needless to say, that has rendered such optimization intractable until now. The car finite element model is shown. The advent of computers that comprise large numbers of concurrently operating processors has created a new environment wherein the above optimization, and other engineering problems heretofore regarded as intractable may be solved. The procedure, shown, is a piecewise approximation based method and involves using a sensitivity based Taylor series approximation model for NVH and a polynomial response surface model for Crash. In that method the NVH constraints are evaluated using a finite element code (MSC/NASTRAN) that yields the constraint values and their derivatives with respect to design variables. The crash constraints are evaluated using the explicit code RADIOSS on the Origin 2000 operating on 256 processors simultaneously to generate data for a polynomial response surface in the design variable domain. The NVH constraints and their derivatives combined with the response surface for the crash constraints form an approximation to the system analysis (surrogate analysis) that enables a cycle of multidisciplinary optimization within move limits. In the inner loop, the NVH sensitivities are recomputed to update the NVH approximation model while keeping the Crash response surface constant. In every outer loop, the Crash response surface approximation is updated, including a gradual increase in the order of the response surface and the response surface extension in the direction of the search. In this optimization task, the NVH discipline has 30 design variables while the crash discipline has 20 design variables. A subset of these design variables (10) are common to both the NVH and crash disciplines. In order to construct a linear response surface for the Crash discipline constraints, a minimum of 21 design points would have to be analyzed using the RADIOSS code. On a single processor in Origin 2000 that amount of computing would require over 9 months! In this work, these runs were carried out concurrently on the Origin 2000 using multiple processors, ranging from 8 to 16, for each crash (RADIOSS) analysis. Another figure shows the wall time required for a single RADIOSS analysis using varying number of processors, as well as provides a comparison of 2 different common data placement procedures within the allotted memories for each analysis. The initial design is an infeasible design with NVH discipline Static Torsion constraint violations of over 10%. The final optimized design is a feasible design with a weight reduction of 15 kg compared to the initial design. This work demonstrates how advanced methodology for optimization combined with the technology of concurrent processing enables applications that until now were out of reach because of very long time-to-solution.
Kodiyalam, Srinivas↗
Probabilistic Thermal Analysis During Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Aerobraking
A method for performing a probabilistic thermal analysis during aerobraking has been developed. The analysis is performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter solar array during aerobraking. The methodology makes use of a response surface model derived from a more complex finite element thermal model of the solar array. The response surface is a quadratic equation which calculates the peak temperature for a given orbit drag pass at a specific location on the solar panel. Five different response surface equations are used, one of which predicts the overall maximum solar panel temperature, and the remaining four predict the temperatures of the solar panel thermal sensors. The variables used to define the response surface can be characterized as either environmental, material property, or modeling variables. Response surface variables are statistically varied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation produces mean temperatures and 3 sigma bounds as well as the probability of exceeding the designated flight allowable temperature for a given orbit. Response surface temperature predictions are compared with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter flight temperature data.
Dec, John A.↗
Effects of surface vacancy-adatom pair formation on PFC tungsten surface morphological response
Abstract We report a simulation study of the effect of He-irradiation-induced surface vacancy-adatom pair formation on the surface morphological evolution of plasma-facing component (PFC) tungsten and examine a number of factors that impact such evolution. Our analysis is based on self-consistent dynamical simulations according to an atomistically-informed, continuum-scale surface evolution model that has been developed following a hierarchical multiscale modeling strategy and can access the spatiotemporal scales of relevance to fuzz formation. The model accounts for the flux of surface adatoms generated as a result of the surface vacancy-adatom pair formation effect upon He implantation, which contributes to the anisotropic growth of surface nanostructural features due to the different rates of adatom diffusion along and across step edges of islands on the tungsten surface. We have carried out atomic-scale computations of optimal diffusion pathways along and across island step edges on the W(110) surface and calculated Ehrlich–Schwoebel (ES) barriers in adatom diffusion along and across such step edges. This aspect of surface adatom diffusion contributes to anisotropic surface atomic fluxes, terrace and step diffusive currents, and has been incorporated into our PFC surface evolution model, which predicts the formation of preferentially aligned nanoridge stripe patterns on the PFC surface. We establish that these anisotropic diffusive currents accelerate nanotendril growth on the PFC surface and the onset of surface nanostructure pattern formation. We also explore systematically the dependence of the PFC surface morphological response on the surface temperature and He ion incident flux, characterize in detail the resulting surface topographies and growth kinetics, and compare the predicted surface morphologies with experimental observations. Our simulation predictions for the emerging surface nanostructure patterns under certain plasma exposure conditions are consistent with experimental findings in the literature.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam
Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.
Hobbs, Michael L.↗
Hole formation effect on surface morphological response of plasma-facing tungsten
We report simulation results on the effect of helium (He) bubble bursting-mediated surface hole formation on the surface morphological response of tungsten plasma-facing components (PFCs) in nuclear fusion devices. Our analysis is based on an atomistically informed, continuum-scale model, which is capable of accessing the spatiotemporal scales relevant to the fuzz nanostructure formation process on the surface of PFC tungsten. Our simulations account, in an empirical fashion, for two types of subsurface bubble dynamical phenomena in the nanobubble region of PFC tungsten during He plasma irradiation, involving bubble bursting and surface crater formation. We demonstrate that the hole formation effect on the PFC tungsten surface accelerates the growth rate of nanotendrils and the onset of fuzz formation. As a result, the predicted incubation time for surface nanotendril growth is shortened, in agreement with experimental data of incubation fluence at comparable plasma exposure conditions. We also explore systematically the dependence of the PFC surface morphological response on the areal density of holes introduced at regular time intervals onto the He-implanted tungsten surface, a parameter in our analysis that serves as a proxy for the rate of He bubble bursting. More importantly, our simulations capture fine surface features in the PFC tungsten surface morphology and predict that the average spacing between nanotendrils is on the order of 100 nm, consistent with the experimental findings.
Chen, Chao-Shou (ORCID:0000000307910042)↗
Improved Modeling of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Disposal Room Porosity
Disposal rooms at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) contain waste and gas, and their porosity evolves over time. This report presents several improvements to the disposal room porosity model and presents new porosity predictions for use in future WIPP Performance Assessment activities. The improvements pertain to three sub-models: the geomechanical model, the waste compaction model, and the gas pressurization model. The impacts of each major improvement were quantified and the new porosity predictions were shown to be both mesh and domain size converged. Also, sensitivity studies on the disposal room horizon, clay seam friction coefficients, and homogenized waste representation were performed to support assumptions in the disposal room porosity model. To compare the legacy and new porosity predictions, the simulation results were plotted as a response surface, where gas pressure and time are inputs and porosity is the output. The new porosity response surface is insensitive to pressures beneath lithostatic pressure and highly sensitive to pressures above lithostatic pressure. The legacy porosity response surface, on the other hand, has moderate porosity gradients over all pressures. The new porosity response surface has a stronger scientific foundation than the legacy surface and may now be used for Compliance Decision Analyses.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗