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Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa

The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.

Non-NASA Center↗

Sample Acquisition and Analytical Chemistry Challenges to Verifying Compliance to Aviators Breathing Oxygen (ABO) Purity Specification

NASA has been developing and testing two different types of oxygen separation systems. One type of oxygen separation system uses pressure swing technology, the other type uses a solid electrolyte electrochemical oxygen separation cell. Both development systems have been subjected to long term testing, and performance testing under a variety of environmental and operational conditions. Testing these two systems revealed that measuring the product purity of oxygen, and determining if an oxygen separation device meets Aviator's Breathing Oxygen (ABO) specifications is a subtle and sometimes difficult analytical chemistry job. Verifying product purity of cryogenically produced oxygen presents a different set of analytical chemistry challenges. This presentation will describe some of the sample acquisition and analytical chemistry challenges presented by verifying oxygen produced by an oxygen separator - and verifying oxygen produced by cryogenic separation processes. The primary contaminant that causes gas samples to fail to meet ABO requirements is water. The maximum amount of water vapor allowed is 7 ppmv. The principal challenge of verifying oxygen produced by an oxygen separator is that it is produced relatively slowly, and at comparatively low temperatures. A short term failure that occurs for just a few minutes in the course of a 1 week run could cause an entire tank to be rejected. Continuous monitoring of oxygen purity and water vapor could identify problems as soon as they occur. Long term oxygen separator tests were instrumented with an oxygen analyzer and with an hygrometer: a GE Moisture Monitor Series 35. This hygrometer uses an aluminum oxide sensor. The user's manual does not report this, but long term exposure to pure oxygen causes the aluminum oxide sensor head to bias dry. Oxygen product that exceeded the 7 ppm specification was improperly accepted, because the sensor had biased. The bias is permanent - exposure to air does not cause the sensor to return to its original response - but the bias can be accounted for by recalibrating the sensor. After this issue was found, continuous measurements of water vapor in the oxygen product were made using an FTIR. The FTIR cell is relatively large, so response time is slow - but moisture measurements were repeatable and accurate. Verifying ABO compliance for oxygen produced by commercial cryogenic processes has a different set of sample acquisition and analytical chemistry challenges. Customers want analytical chemists to conserve as much as possible. Hygrometers are not exposed to hours of continuous flow of oxygen, so they don't bias, but small amounts of contamination in valves can cause a "fail". K bottles are periodically cleaned and recertified - after cleaning residual moisture can cause a "fail". Operators let bottle pressure drop to room pressure, introduce outside air into the bottle, and the subsequent fill will "fail". Outside storage of K‐bottles has allowed enough in‐leakage, so contents will "fail".

Graf, John↗

Assessment of Countermeasure Efficacy for Long-Term Space Missions

One of the main functions of the upcoming International Space Station (ISS) will be to provide a venue for testing proposed countermeasures for their ability to protect humans from the debilitating effects of longterm space flight. However, several limiting factors preclude an evaluation process similar to that used in clinical trials which traditionally are implemented with large sample sizes of subjects, including control groups, and with blind or double-blind application of treatments according to factorial or other balanced experimental designs. In particular, only very limited numbers of human subjects will be available for actual field testing in the ISS With no more than 125 subjects planned to fly on all ISS missions over 10 years, it is not possible to test extensive combinations of some 15-20 proposed countermeasures. Furthermore because of safety concerns and operational considerations, it is unlikely that anything other than the current best guess at the most effective countermeasure package will ever be used on ISS. In particular, control or placebos will not be allowed. In view of these limitations, historical data and groundbased or animal studies will have to be used to compensate for small sample sizes and lack of controls in the field. As a result, statistical analysis methodology will have to be developed which allows for the integration of these disparate data types into a meaningful evaluation process. The process must be sequential, providing objective rules for deciding through time whether to reject or modify an ineffective countermeasure, or whether to certify one as effective. Additional output should include performance characteristics for all relevant physiological systems, including uncertainty analyses and estimates of accept/reject decision error rates.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Numerical Simulations of Crystal Growth of an Alloy Under Microgravity Conditions

The directional solidification of a dilute binary alloy (Bi-1.0 at.%Sn)is investigated. Results are obtained at a gravity level of I pg. Computations are performed in two dimensions with a fixed, non-uniform grid. The simulation involves a solution of the species concentration equation (modified to account for solute rejection at the interface) and energy equation (modified to account for phase-change) for both the solid and liquid phases, in addition to the constitutive equations for describing convective flow in the melt. The effects of conductive heat transfer in the ampoule and in a capillary tube in the sample are included. To gauge the effects of including this growth capillary tube in the apparatus, simulations both with and without the capillary tube are presented and compared. Fully transient simulations have been performed; no simplifying steady-state approximations are used, however, the influence of solute on the melting temperature at the interface is not included. Both thermal and solutal convective cells are seen to form. Convective velocities are significantly damped inside the capillary, causing less segregation due to convection. As solidification proceeds beyond the capillary tube, longitudinal segregation arises as a result of the change in cross-sectional area of solidifying material. The magnitudes of the velocities in this cell increase significantly once the solid/liquid front passes beyond the end of the capillary tube; this causes a corresponding increase in the level of radial solute segregation in the solidified material.

Simpson, James E.↗

A Factorial Data Rate and Dwell Time Experiment in the National Transonic Facility

This report is an introductory tutorial on the application of formal experiment design methods to wind tunnel testing, for the benefit of aeronautical engineers with little formal experiment design training. It also describes the results of a Study to determine whether increases in the sample rate and dwell time of the National Transonic Facility data system Would result in significant changes in force and moment data. Increases in sample rate from 10 samples per second to 50 samples per second were examined, as were changes in dwell time from one second per data point to two seconds. These changes were examined for a representative aircraft model in a range of tunnel operating conditions defined by angles of attack from 0 deg to 3.8 degrees, total pressure from 15.0 psi to 24.1 psi, and Mach numbers from 0.52 to 0.82. No statistically significant effect was associated with the change in sample rate. The change in dwell time from one second to two seconds affected axial force measurements, and to a lesser degree normal force measurements. This dwell effect comprises a "rectification error" caused by incomplete cancellation of the positive and negative elements of certain low frequency dynamic components that are not rejected by the one-Hz low-pass filters of the data system. These low frequency effects may be due to tunnel circuit phenomena and other sources. The magnitude of the dwell effect depends on dynamic pressure, with angle of attack and Mach number influencing the strength of this dependence. An analysis is presented which suggests that the magnitude of the rectification error depends on the ratio of measurement dwell time to the period of the low-frequency dynamics, as well as the amplitude of the dynamics The essential conclusion of this analysis is that extending the dwell time (or, equivalently, replicating short-dwell data points) reduces the rectification error.

DeLoach, R.↗

The impact of tropical wind data on the analysis and forcasts of the GLA GCM for the global weather experiment

It is well-known that divergent wind estimates are much more dependent upon the analysis system than are estimates of the rotational wind. This conclusion is supported in recent analyses of FGGE SOP1 data produced by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). These analyses differ in the forecast models that are used for the four-dimensional assimilation, in the data rejection criteria, and, to a certain extent, in the data density. Because the final divergent wind is a product of both model constraints and observation, it is relevant to inquire how much of each goes into the final product. We presently investigate this question through a systematic analysis of tropical data that are sampled at different densities by the GLA GCM.

Paegle, Jan↗

Constraints on Saturn's Tropospheric General Circulation from Cassini ISS Images

An automated cloud tracking algorithm is applied to Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem high-resolution apoapsis images of Saturn from 2005 and 2007 and moderate resolution images from 2011 and 2012 to define the near-global distribution of zonal winds and eddy momentum fluxes at the middle troposphere cloud level and in the upper troposphere haze. Improvements in the tracking algorithm combined with the greater feature contrast in the northern hemisphere during the approach to spring equinox allow for better rejection of erroneous wind vectors, a more objective assessment at any latitude of the quality of the mean zonal wind, and a population of winds comparable in size to that available for the much higher contrast atmosphere of Jupiter. Zonal winds at cloud level changed little between 2005 and 2007 at all latitudes sampled. Upper troposphere zonal winds derived from methane band images are approx. 10 m/s weaker than cloud level winds in the cores of eastward jets and approx. 5 m/s stronger on either side of the jet core, i.e., eastward jets appear to broaden with increasing altitude. In westward jet regions winds are approximately the same at both altitudes. Lateral eddy momentum fluxes are directed into eastward jet cores, including the strong equatorial jet, and away from westward jet cores and weaken with increasing altitude on the flanks of the eastward jets, consistent with the upward broadening of these jets. The conversion rate of eddy to mean zonal kinetic energy at the visible cloud level is larger in eastward jet regions (5.2x10(exp -5) sq m/s) and smaller in westward jet regions (1.6x10(exp -5) sqm/s) than the global mean value (4.1x10(ep -5) sq m/s). Overall the results are consistent with theories that suggest that the jets and the overturning meridional circulation at cloud level on Saturn are maintained at least in part by eddies due to instabilities of the large-scale flow near and/or below the cloud level.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗

Simulations of Sample-Up-The-Ramp for Space-Based Observations of Faint Sources

We have conducted simulations of a memory-efficient up-the-ramp sampling algorithm for infrared detector arrays. Our simulations use realistic sky models of galaxy brightness, shapes, and distributions, and include the contributions of zodiacal light and cosmic rays. A simulated readout is based on the HAWAII-2RG arrays, and includes read noise, dark current, pedestal, and other effects. The up-the-ramp algorithm rejects cosmic rays and produces a best estimate of the source flux under the assumption of very low signal-to-noise. We present an analysis of the fidelity of image brightness recovery with this algorithm.

Benford, Dominic J.↗

Optimal GSTDN/TDRSS bit error rate evaluation using limited sample sizes

Statistical studies of telemetry errors were made on data from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). Examination of frame sync words, as received at the ground station, indicated a wide spread of Bit Error Rates (BER) among stations. A study of the distribution of errors per station pass, however, showed that there was a tendency for the station software to add an even number of spurious errors to the count. A count of wild points in science data, rejecting drop-outs and other system errors, yielded an average random BER of 3.1 x 10 to the -6 with 99% confidence limits of 2.6 and 3.8 x 10 to the -6. The system errors are typically 5 to 100 times more frequent than the truly random errors.

Coffey, R. E.↗

Simulation of deep one- and two-dimensional redshift surveys

It is shown that slice or pencil-beam redshift surveys of galaxies can be simulated in a box with nonequal sides. This method saves a lot of computer time and memory while providing essentially the same results as from whole-cube simulations. A 2457.6/h Mpc-long rod (out to a redshift z = 0.58 in two opposite directions) is simulated using the standard biased cold dark matter model as an example to mimic the recent deep pencil-beam surveys by Broadhurst et al. (1990). The structures (spikes) seen in these simulated samples occur when the narrow pencil-beam pierces walls, filaments, and clusters appearing randomly along the line-of-sight. A statistical test for goodness of fit to a periodic lattice has been applied to the observations and the simulations. It is found that the statistical significance level (P = 15.4 percent) is not strong enough to reject the null hypothesis that the observations and the simulations were drawn at random from the same set.

Park, Changbom↗

Space Station Payload Adaptation System

The development and design of a system of containers for the efficient integration of Space Station payloads is described called the Space Station Payload Adaptation System (SSPAS). The SSPAS was developed to address the incorporation of multiple payloads, the use of a small payload carrier, large numbers of samples, and on-orbit servicing. SSPAS subsystems such as the Spacelab rack are modular and designed for integration into the 'Quick Is Beautiful' (QIB) facility. The QIB is designed to provide access to space for small- and medium-sized microgravity research projects and proof-of-concept investigations. The power-distribution and heat-rejection potential of the QIB are described, and an improved experiment-apparatus container is proposed. The SSPAS rack-mounting and container concepts are concluded to make up an efficent system that can effectively exploit the R&D potential of the Space Station.

Taylor, Kenneth R.↗

Solar White Thermal Coating for Cryogenic Propulsion Systems

NASA is currently conducting research into the potential of storing cryogenic fluid in low Earth orbit (LEO). Having cryogenic propellant readily available for high-performance propulsion systems can be very beneficial for deep space missions in the near future. One of the key challenges to storing cryogenic fluid in LEO is minimizing boil-off. To address the challenge, NASA is evaluating new concepts in thermal insulation. One recent experimental study evaluated the feasibility of using Yttrium Oxide (Y2O3), formed into tiles or spray coating that can potentially be used as a thermal coating for cryogenic propellant storage applications in deep space. Due to its temperature and wavelength dependent optical properties, this “solar white” material can reflect a vast majority of the Sun’s radiative energy while having a very high infrared emissivity for rejecting heat to deep space. As a part of the material development and proof of concept testing, multiple tests have been run at KSC and GRC to demonstrate the performance of the material. At GRC, the tests were run using the Deep Space Solar Simulator (DS3) which contains a thermal vacuum chamber in which the solar white sample was exposed to a deep space environment (< 10 K, optically dense walls) while under full illumination via solar lamp. In order to improve the use of the test results and apply them to spacecraft, there is a need to be able to model the material properties within NASA’s standard thermal modeling tools. As such, it was set out to verify a thermal model of one of the experiments using Thermal Desktop with Sinda. The thermal model of the DS3 test setup includes the solar white sample along with a solar lamp simulator capable of outputting heat at varying wavelengths. The model was developed in order to validate the test results and also to help predict results that will be obtained in future tests. This paper will review the modeling methods and thermal analysis results for various test cases that were run within the DS3 facility.

Cryogenic↗

An experiment in software reliability: Additional analyses using data from automated replications

A study undertaken to collect software error data of laboratory quality for use in the development of credible methods for predicting the reliability of software used in life-critical applications is summarized. The software error data reported were acquired through automated repetitive run testing of three independent implementations of a launch interceptor condition module of a radar tracking problem. The results are based on 100 test applications to accumulate a sufficient sample size for error rate estimation. The data collected is used to confirm the results of two Boeing studies reported in NASA-CR-165836 Software Reliability: Repetitive Run Experimentation and Modeling, and NASA-CR-172378 Software Reliability: Additional Investigations into Modeling With Replicated Experiments, respectively. That is, the results confirm the log-linear pattern of software error rates and reject the hypothesis of equal error rates per individual fault. This rejection casts doubt on the assumption that the program's failure rate is a constant multiple of the number of residual bugs; an assumption which underlies some of the current models of software reliability. data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults.

Dunham, Janet R.↗

Adaptive control of dual-arm robots

Three strategies for adaptive control of cooperative dual-arm robots are described. In the position-position control strategy, the adaptive controllers ensure that the end-effector positions of both arms track desired trajectories in Cartesian space despite unknown time-varying interaction forces exerted through the load. In the position-hybrid control strategy, the adaptive controller of one arm controls end-effector motions in the free directions and applied forces in the constraint directions, while the adaptive controller of the other arm ensures that the end-effector tracks desired position trajectories. In the hybrid-hybrid control strategy, the adaptive controllers ensure that both end-effectors track reference position trajectories while simultaneously applying desired forces on the load. In all three control strategies, the cross-coupling effects between the arms are treated as disturbances which are rejected by the adaptive controllers while following desired commands in a common frame of reference. The adaptive controllers do not require the complex mathematical model of the arm dynamics or any knowledge of the arm dynamic parameters or the load parameters such as mass and stiffness. The controllers have simple structures and are computationally fast for on-line implementation with high sampling rates.

Seraji, H.↗

Disturbance rejection in repetitive controllers

The p-integrator is a digital controller that learns from previous experience executing a repetitive command in order to improve its performance in future repetitions. This class of repetitive controller is an analog of the integral controller of classical control theory. This paper addresses several issues related to the performance of the p-integrator. This is followed by a derivation that will demonstrate the repetitive disturbance rejection capabilities of the controller. The effect of the tracking performance in practical implementations with prefiltering and postfiltering devices are studied - using an exact and approximate formulation. Relations showing the actual system response during steady state operation with these filters are derived. The results are then extended to include the tracking error performance of systems subjected to repetitive disturbances. Finally, the system response between sample times is developed.

Solcz, Edward J.↗

FTIR instrumentation to monitor vapors from Shuttle tile waterproofing materials

The Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) tiles and blankets are waterproofed using DimethylEthoxySilane (DMEX) in the Orbiter Processing Facilities (OPF). DMES has a Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for exposure of personnel to vapor concentration in air of 0.5 ppm. The OPF high bay cannot be opened for normal work after a waterproofing operation until the DMES concentration is verified by measurement to be below the TLV. On several occasions the high bay has been kept closed for up to 8 hours following waterproofing operations due to high DMES measurements. In addition, the Miran 203 and Miran 1 BX infrared analyzers calibrated at different wavelengths gave different readings under the same conditions. There was reason to believe that some of the high DMES concentration readings were caused by interference form water and ethanol vapors. The Toxic Vapor Detection Laboratory (TVDL) was asked to test the existing DMES instruments and identify the best qualified instrument. In addition the TVDL was requested to develop instrumentation to ensure the OPF high bay could be opened safely as soon as possible after a waterproofing operation. A Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrophotometer instrument developed for an earlier project was reprogrammed to measure DMES vapor along with ethanol, water, and several common solvent vapors. The FTIR was then used to perform a series of laboratory and field tests to evaluate the performance of the single wavelength IR instruments in use. The results demonstrated that the single wavelength IR instruments did respond to ethanol and water vapors, more or less depending on the analytical IR wavelength selected. The FTIR was able to separate the responses to DMES, water and ethanol, and give consistent readings for the DMES vapor concentration. The FTIR was then deployed to the OPF to monitor real waterproofing operations. The FTIR was also used to measure the time for DMES to evaporate from TPS tile under a range of humidity conditions in controlled laboratory tests. The combination of laboratory and field tests with the FTIR instrument demonstrated superior sensitivity, ability to reject interference from water and ethanol vapors, ruggedness to be transported from the lab to the OPF and set up without special procedures or degradation of performance. The multiple component vapor analysis algorithm was developed at KSC and incorporates automatic baseline correction and shape fitting of the spectra. The analysis for DMES, TetraMethylDiSiloxane (TMDS), ethanol, methanol, isopropanol, and baseline parameters uses 161 points per sample at 4 cm(exp -1) resolution, and processes an eight scan sample every ten seconds. The standard deviation of the measurements is 0.013 ppm and the upper linear limit is 125 ppm DMES. Based on successful demonstration of capabilities we produced three mobile instrument carts to be used in each OPF to support future waterproofing operations. The design and building of the 'DMES Carts' were accomplished in Fiscal year 1995.

Mattson, C. B.↗

Characterizing K2 Candidate Planetary Systems Orbiting Low-Mass Stars. II. Planetary Systems Observed During Campaigns 1-7

We recently used near-infrared spectroscopy to improve the characterization of 76 low-mass stars around which K2 had detected 79 candidate transiting planets. 29 of these worlds were new discoveries that had not previously been published. We calculate the false positive probabilities that the transit-like signals are actually caused by non-planetary astrophysical phenomena and reject five new transit-like events and three previously reported events as false positives. We also statistically validate 17 planets (7 of which were previously unpublished), confirm the earlier validation of 22 planets, and announce 17 newly discovered planet candidates. Revising the properties of the associated planet candidates based on the updated host star characteristics and refitting the transit photometry, we find that our sample contains 21 planets or planet candidates with radii smaller than 1.25 solar radii, 18 super-Earths (1.25-2 solar radii), 21 small Neptunes (2-4 solar radii), three large Neptunes (4-6 solar radii), and eight giant planets (greater than 6 solar radii). Most of these planets are highly irradiated, but EPIC 206209135.04 (K2-72e, 1.29 from plus 0.19 to minus 0.18 solar radii), EPIC 211988320.01 (perihelion radius equals 2.86 from plus 0.16 to minus 0.15 solar radii), and EPIC 212690867.01 (2.20 from plus 0.19 to minus 0.18 solar radii) orbit within optimistic habitable zone boundaries set by the "recent Venus" inner limit and the "early Mars" outer limit. In total, our planet sample includes eight moderately irradiated 1.5-3 solar radii planet candidates (planetary flux greater than or approximately 20 times Earth's flux) orbiting brighter stars (Ks less than 11) that are well-suited for atmospheric investigations with the Hubble, Spitzer, and/or James Webb Space Telescopes. Five validated planets orbit relatively bright stars (Kp less than 12.5) and are expected to yield radial velocity semi-amplitudes of at least 2 meters per second. Accordingly, they are possible targets for radial velocity mass measurement with current facilities or the upcoming generation of red optical and near-infrared high-precision RV (Radial Velocity) spectrographs.

Dressing, Courtney D.↗

Silver-Teflon contamination UV radiation study

Silver-Teflon (Ag/FEP) is planned to be used as the thermal control material covering the radiator surfaces on the shuttle orbiter payload bay doors. These radiators require the use of materials that have a very low solar absorptance and a high emittance for heat rejection. However, operationally, materials used on these critical radiator surfaces, such as silver-Teflon, will be exposed to a variety of conditions which include both the natural as well as the induced environments from the Shuttle Orbiter. A complete test facility was assembled, and detailed test procedures and a test matrix were developed. Measurements of low solar absorptance were taken before and after contamination, at intervals during irradiation, and after sample cleaning to fulfill all the requirements.

Muscari, J. A.↗