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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR): exploring the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of EV market adoption

As an innovative vehicle technology, electric vehicles are experiencing growing sales and have made significant inroads into the traditional automotive market in the United States and around the world. However, EV adoption rates vary significantly across space and over time, influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and infrastructural factors alongside federal and state policies. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive spatial–temporal investigation of EV market adoption within one city in the US, that of Chicago, utilizing Multiscale Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (MGTWR) alongside Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The aim is to unravel the spatial and temporal dynamics affecting EV adoption and to explore how the influence of various determinants of EV adoption, such as demographic factors and economic conditions, vary spatially. Moreover, by utilizing MGTWR, we provide insights into the evolution of these relationships over time, offering a predictive outlook on future EV market growth. Our findings, with an 86.6% prediction accuracy for EV market adoption, tailored policy measures to support accelerated EV adoption. Methodologically, this work advances MGWR frameworks by integrating temporal dynamics to examine nonstationary processes in spatially disaggregated contexts. These findings offer evidence–based guidance for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in the automotive industry, supporting the transition toward a more sustainable and efficient transportation system.

EV Market Adoption↗
DOE OSTI2025

Protocol to detect dilution cycles in chemostat experiments and estimate growth rate slopes with linear modeling with R software chemostat_regression

Chemostat growth chambers measure optical density over time and require manual calculation of growth rates. Here, we present chemostat_regression, R software that enables users to automatically identify chemostat cycles and estimate growth rate using a linear regression approach. We describe steps for creating requisite software environment(s), formatting input data, executing the software via command line/RStudio/R-Shiny, interpreting results, assessing the validity of results, and modifying input parameters.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dispersion curve regression – assisted wideband local wavenumber analysis for characterizing three-dimensional (3D) profile of hidden corrosion damage

Corrosion as common damage in civil, petrochemical, nuclear, and aerospace structures affects the integrity and safety of the structures and may lead to catastrophic failures. This paper presents dispersion curve regression-assisted local wavenumber analysis method, which can analyze the time–space wavefield containing wideband information of wave-damage interaction and further extract the structural information carried by such wavefield for characterizing hidden corrosion damage in an isotropic plate. To acquire the time–space wavefield, a noncontact scanning laser Doppler vibrometer is used. In our analysis method, the acquired time–space wavefield is firstly processed to generate a local wavenumber function. The derived wavenumber function is further analyzed with a dispersion curve regression step, which searches in a set of theoretical frequency-wavenumber dispersion curves for different plate thicknesses and identifies the optimal plate thickness whose theoretical curve best matches the frequency-wavenumber relation contained in the local wavenumber function. By this means, a 3D profile including both in plane and thickness dimensions of the structure can be constructed for corrosion visualization and quantification. The experimental study demonstrates that our method can quantify the profile of hidden uniform corrosion in metal plates in terms of its in-plane shape and size as well as its out-of-plane depth in the subwavelength scale. Moreover, compared to previous Lamb wave-based corrosion inspection methods, our technique allows for noncontact 3D characterization of hidden corrosion from a far distance to the structure. Finally, we believe this work will inspire new 3D damage quantification methods that are based on wavefield analysis as well as enable potential applications for the quantification of hidden corrosion in civil, petrochemical, nuclear, and aerospace structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

SA-GAT-SR: self-adaptable graph attention networks with symbolic regression for high-fidelity material property prediction

Recent advances in machine learning have demonstrated an enormous utility of deep learning approaches, particularly Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for materials science. These methods have emerged as powerful tools for high-throughput prediction of material properties, offering a compelling enhancement and alternative to traditional first-principles calculations. While the community has predominantly focused on developing increasingly complex and universal models to enhance predictive accuracy, such approaches often lack physical interpretability and insights into materials behavior. Here, we introduce a novel computational paradigm—Self-Adaptable Graph Attention Networks integrated with Symbolic Regression (SA-GAT-SR)—that synergistically combines the predictive capability of GNNs with the interpretative power of symbolic regression. Our framework employs a self-adaptable encoding algorithm that automatically identifies and adjust attention weights so as to screen critical features from an expansive 180-dimensional feature space while maintaining O(n) computational scaling. The integrated SR module subsequently distills these features into compact analytical expressions that explicitly reveal quantum-mechanically meaningful relationships, achieving 23 × acceleration compared to conventional SR implementations that heavily rely on first-principle calculations-derived features as input. This work suggests a new framework in computational materials science, bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and physical interpretability, offering valuable physical insights into material behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression for extracting chemical reaction mechanisms from data

A data-driven computational method is introduced to extract chemical reaction mechanisms from time series chemical concentration data. It is realized through the use of dynamic symbolic regression in which a sparse analytical form for a dynamical system is discoverable from the underlying data. We specifically develop the stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression (SISR) method to address a standing challenge in complex chemical reaction networks: given a time-series dataset of concentrations of several components, what is the mechanism and the associated rate constants? SISR finds the optimal mechanism, kinetic equations and rate constants by combining differential optimization with a genetic optimization approach that searches a symbolic space of possible reaction mechanisms. Use of SISR in several paradigmatic examples spanning linear and nonlinear reaction schemes results in excellent agreement between true and predicted mechanisms, including when the method is applied to noisy data. The advantages of a stoichiometrically-informed approach such as SISR to address reaction discovery is illustrated through comparison with the use of generic state-of-the-art data-driven approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A best-practice guide to predicting plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data using partial least squares regression

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) modelling is a statistical technique for correlating datasets, and involves the fitting of a linear regression between two matrices. One application of PLSR enables leaf traits to be estimated from hyperspectral optical reflectance data, facilitating rapid, high-throughput, non-destructive plant phenotyping. This technique is of interest and importance in a wide range of contexts including crop breeding and ecosystem monitoring. The lack of a consensus in the literature on how to perform PLSR means that interpreting model results can be challenging, applying existing models to novel datasets can be impossible, and unknown or undisclosed assumptions can lead to incorrect or spurious predictions. We address this lack of consensus by proposing best practices for using PLSR to predict plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data, including a discussion of when PLSR is applicable, and recommendations for data collection. Further, we provide a tutorial to demonstrate how to develop a PLSR model, in the form of an R script accompanying this manuscript. This practical guide will assist all those interpreting and using PLSR models to predict leaf traits from spectral data, and advocates for a unified approach to using PLSR for predicting traits from spectra in the plant sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisit the Scalability of Deep Auto-Regressive Models for Graph Generation

As a new promising approach to graph generations, deep auto-regressive graph generation has drawn increasing attention. It however has been commonly deemed as hard to scale up to work with large graphs. In existing studies, it is perceived that the consideration of the full non-local graph dependences is indispensable for this approach to work, which entails the needs for keeping the entire graph’s info in memory and hence the perceived “inherent” scalability limitation of the approach. This paper revisits the common perception. It proposes three ways to relax the dependences and conducts a series of empirical measurements. It concludes that the perceived “inherent” scalability limitation is a misperception; with the right design and implementation, deep auto-regressive graph generation can be applied to graphs much larger than the device memory. The rectified perception removes a fundamental barrier for this approach to meet practical needs.

Yang, Shuai↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parton labeling without matching: unveiling emergent labelling capabilities in regression models

Parton labeling methods are widely used when reconstructing collider events with top quarks or other massive particles. State-of-the-art techniques are based on machine learning and require training data with events that have been matched using simulations with truth information. In nature, there is no unique matching between partons and final state objects due to the properties of the strong force and due to acceptance effects. We propose a new approach to parton labeling that circumvents these challenges by recycling regression models. The final state objects that are most relevant for a regression model to predict the properties of a particular top quark are assigned to said parent particle without having any parton-matched training data. This approach is demonstrated using simulated events with top quarks and outperforms the widely used $χ$ 2 method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Symbolic Regression

Symbolic regression is the task of finding tractable mathematical expressions that best fit an input dataset. Deep symbolic regression (DSR) searches the space of tractable mathematical expressions by using a recurrent neural network that generates mathematical expressions. The network is trained using reinforcement learning.

Petersen, BrendenK↗
DOE OSTI2025

bayesian_tensor_regression

We plan to release the code used to perform the experiment described in our upcoming publication, entitled “Bayesian Tensor Modeling for Distribution-on-Distribution Regression.” This code a Bayesian regression model with a multi-way Dirichlet prior to tensor input distributions. All code to be released implements a new model that is intended for open-source publication.

Murph, Alexander C. [Los Alamos National Lab]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression to build interpretable surrogate models

Abstract We develop a materials informatics workflow to build an interpretable surrogate model for micromagnetic simulations. Our goal is to predict the energy barrier of a moving isolated skyrmion in rare-earth-free $$\hbox {Mn}_4$$ Mn 4 N. Our approach integrates adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression methods. We discuss an unexplored acquisition function (information condensing active learning) within the adaptive learning loop and compare it with the known standard deviation function for efficient navigation of the search space. Model-agnostic post hoc explanation techniques then uncover trends learned by the trained model, which we then leverage to constrain the expressions used for symbolic regression. Graphical abstract

Biswas, Ankita↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multivariate Regression of Pyrotechnic Igniter Output

Multivariate multiple regression models are applied to simplified pyrotechnic igniters for the first time to understand how changes in manufactured parameters can affect the output gas dynamic response and the timing of ignition events. The statistical modeling technique is applied to demonstrate quantification of the effects of a set of independent variables measured in the as-fabricated igniters on a set of responses experimentally measured from the functioned igniters. Two independent process variables were intentionally varied following a full factorial experimental design while several other independent variables varied within their normal manufacturing variability range. The four igniter performance responses consisted of the timing of sequential events during igniter function and visual gas dynamic output in the form of shock wave strength observed with high-speed schlieren imaging. Linear regression models built using the measurements throughout the manufacturing processes and the output variance provide insight into the critical device parameters that dominate performance

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Notes on Regression Analysis for Radar Parameter Estimation

A fundamental task of radar, beyond merely detecting a target, is to estimate some parameters associated with it. For example, this might include range, direction, velocity, etc. In any case, multiple measurements, often noisy, need to be processed to yield a ‘best estimate’ of the parameter. A common mathematical method for doing so is called “Regression” analysis. The goal is to minimize the expected squared error in the estimate. Even when alternate algorithms are considered, the least squared-error regression analysis is the benchmark against which alternatives are compared.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗