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DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21 st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutrino(antineutrino)–nucleus interactions in the shallow- and deep-inelastic scattering regions

In $\nu /\bar{\nu }$–nucleon/nucleus interactions shallow inelastic scattering ($\text{SIS}$) is technically defined in terms of the four-momentum transfer to the hadronic system as non-resonant meson production with $Q^2 \lessapprox 1 \text {GeV}^2$. This non-resonant meson production intermixes with resonant meson production in a regime of similar effective hadronic mass W of the interaction. As $Q^2$ grows and surpasses this $ ≈1 \text{GeV}^2$ limit, non-resonant interactions begin to take place with quarks within the nucleon indicating the start of deep inelastic scattering ($\text{DIS}$). To essentially separate this resonant plus non-resonant meson production from $\text{DIS}$ quark-fragmented meson production, a cut of 2 $\text{GeV}$ in W of the interactions is generally introduced. However, since experimentally mesons from resonance decay cannot be separated from non-resonant produced mesons, $\text{SIS}$ for all practical purposes in this review has been defined as inclusive meson production that includes non-resonant plus resonant meson production and the interference between them. Experimentally then for $W \lessapprox 2 \text{GeV}$ inclusive meson production with $W \gtrapprox (M_N + M_π)$ and all $Q^2$ is here defined as $\text{SIS}$, while for $W \gtrapprox 2 \text {GeV}$, the kinematic region with $Q^2 \gtrapprox 1 \text{GeV}^2$ is defined as DIS$\text{DIS}$degrees of attention from the community. While the theoretical/phenomenological study of $\nu$–nucleon and $\nu$–nucleus $\text{DIS}$ scattering is advanced, such studies of a large portion of the $\text{SIS}$ region, particularly the $\text{SIS}$ to $\text{DIS}$ transition region, have hardly begun. Experimentally, the $\text{SIS}$ and the $\text{DIS}$ regions for $\nu$–nucleon scattering have minimal results and only in the experimental study of the $\nu$–nucleus $\text{DIS}$ region are there significant results for some nuclei. Inasmuch as current and future neutrino oscillation experiments have contributions from both higher $W \text{SIS}$ and $\text{DIS}$ kinematic regions and these regions are in need of both considerable theoretical and experimental study, this review will concentrate on these $\text{SIS}$ to $\text{DIS}$ transition and $\text{DIS}$ kinematic regions surveying our knowledge and the current challenges.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Regional epithelial cell diversity in the small intestine of pigs

Abstract Understanding regional distribution and specialization of small intestinal epithelial cells is crucial for developing methods to control appetite, stress, and nutrient uptake in swine. To establish a better understanding of specific epithelial cells found across different regions of the small intestine in pigs, we utilized single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) to recover and analyze epithelial cells from duodenum, jejunum, and ileum. Cells identified included crypt cells, enterocytes, BEST4 enterocytes, goblet cells, and enteroendocrine (EE) cells. EE cells were divided into two subsets based on the level of expression of the EE lineage commitment gene, NEUROD1. NEUROD1hi EE cells had minimal expression of hormone-encoding genes and were dissimilar to EE cells in humans and mice, indicating a subset of EE cells unique to pigs. Recently discovered BEST4 enterocytes were detected in both crypts and villi throughout the small intestine via in situ staining, unlike in humans, where BEST4 enterocytes are found only in small intestinal villi. Proximal-to-distal gradients of expression were noted for hormone-encoding genes in EE cells and nutrient transport genes in enterocytes via scRNA-seq, demonstrating regional specialization. Regional gene expression in EE cells and enterocytes was validated via quantitative PCR (qPCR) analysis of RNA isolated from epithelial cells of different small intestinal locations. Though many genes had similar patterns of regional expression when assessed by qPCR of total epithelial cells, some regional expression was only detected via scRNA-seq, highlighting advantages of scRNA-seq to deconvolute cell type-specific regional gene expression when compared to analysis of bulk samples. Overall, results provide new information on regional localization and transcriptional profiles of epithelial cells in the pig small intestine.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2023

A resolved study of the inner regions of nearby galaxies with an excess of young massive stars: missing link in the AGN–starburst connection?

ABSTRACT We have selected galaxies with very high levels of H α emission (EQW(H α) >700 Å.) in their central regions from the final data release of the MaNGA survey. Our study focuses on 14 very well-resolved nearby galaxies with stellar masses in the range 9.5 < log M*/(M⊙) < 11.5. We investigate a variety of procedures for selecting galaxy regions that are likely to harbour excess populations of young massive stars, finding that selection in the 2D space of extinction-corrected H α EQW and [S iii]/[S ii] line ratio produces the best results. By comparing stacked spectra covering these regions with stacked spectra covering normal starburst regions with 100 Å<EQW(H α) <200 Å, we obtain the following main results: (1) Clear signatures of excess Wolf–Rayet stars are found in half of the H α excess regions, (2) galaxy regions containing excess Wolf–Rayet stars are more often associated with the presence of high-ionization emission lines characteristic of accreting black holes. Excess [Ne iii] is detected in 4 out of 8 of the WR regions and there are tentative [Fe x] detections in 2 galaxies. (3) Regions of the galaxy with excess Wolf–Rayet stars are located where the interstellar medium has larger ionized gas turbulent velocities and higher neutral gas overdensities. We make a first attempt to constrain changes in the high-mass end of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) using the HR-pyPopStar evolutionary population synthesis models that include high-wavelength-resolution theoretical atmosphere libraries for Wolf–Rayet stars.

Kauffmann, Guinevere↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduction of the type Ia supernova host galaxy step in the outer regions of galaxies

Using 1533 type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the 5-yr sample of the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we investigate the relationship between the projected galactocentric separation of the SNe and their host galaxies and their light curves and standardization. We show, for the first time, that the difference in SN Ia post-standardization brightnesses between high- and low-mass hosts reduces from $0.078\pm 0.011$ mag in the full sample to $0.036 \pm 0.018$ mag for SNe Ia located in the outer regions of their host galaxies, while increasing to $0.100 \pm 0.014$ mag for SNe in the inner regions. The difference in the size of the mass step between inner and outer regions is $0.064\pm 0.023$ mag. In these inner regions, the step can be reduced (but not removed) using a model where the $R_V$ of dust along the line of sight to the SN changes as a function of galaxy properties. We investigate the remaining difference using the distributions of the SN Ia stretch parameter to test the inferred age of SN progenitors. Comparing red (older) environments only, outer regions have a higher proportion of high-stretch SNe and a more homogeneous stretch distribution. However, this effect cannot explain the reduction in significance of any Hubble residual step in outer regions. We conclude that the standardized distances of SNe Ia located in the outer regions of galaxies are less affected by their global host galaxy properties than those in the inner regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Region-adaptive, Error-controlled Scientific Data Compression using Multilevel Decomposition

The increase of computer processing speed is significantly outpacing improvements in network and storage bandwidth, leading to the big data challenge in modern science, where scientific applications can quickly generate much more data than that can be transferred and stored. As a result, big scientific data must be reduced by a few orders of magnitude while the accuracy of the reduced data needs to be guaranteed for further scientific explorations. Moreover, scientists are often interested in some specific spatial/temporal regions in their data, where higher accuracy is required. The locations of the regions requiring high accuracy can sometimes be prescribed based on application knowledge, while other times they must be estimated based on general spatial/temporal variation. In this paper, we develop a novel multilevel approach which allows users to impose region-wise compression error bounds. Our method utilizes the byproduct of a multilevel compressor to detect regions where details are rich and we provide the theoretical underpinning for region-wise error control. With spatially varying precision preservation, our approach can achieve significantly higher compression ratios than single-error bounded compression approaches and control errors in the regions of interest.We conduct the evaluations on two climate use cases – one targeting small-scale, node features and the other focusing on long, areal features. For both use cases, the locations of the features were unknown ahead of the compression. By selecting approximately 16% of the data based on multi-scale spatial variations and compressing those regions with smaller error tolerances than the rest, our approach improves the accuracy of post-analysis by approximately 2 × compared to single-error-bounded compression at the same compression ratio. Using the same error bound for the region of interest, our approach can achieve an increase of more than 50% in overall compression ratio.

Gong, Qian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Population of H ii Regions in NGC 7020

The galaxy NGC 7020 displays an exotic hexagonal ringlike central structure with conspicuous ansae located at two opposite vertices and a tenuous external ring populated by H ii regions. Inside and around the hexagonal structure, Hα emission is also present at the inner disk. To characterize the population of the H ii regions, as well as their ionizing clusters, we imaged NGC 7020 with narrowband Hα and nearby continuum filters attached to GMOS-S installed on the Gemini South telescope. We found 202 H ii regions or complexes of H ii regions evenly distributed between the outer ring and the central disk The nucleus and ansae also present Hα emission. The equivalent width of the Hα line (W {sub Hα}) is systematically greater at the regions of the outer ring relative to those of the inner disk. We discuss the influence of the metallicity gradient of the disk and the upper limit of the masses of the initial mass function on W {sub Hα}, and we conclude that the data are still consistent with the occurrence of a younger burst of H ii region formation in the outer ring. The central regions present more massive clusters, M ≥ 10{sup 6} M {sub ⊙}, than those of the outer ring (M ≤ 10{sup 6} M {sub ⊙}). Three clusters within 5″ of the nucleus present masses higher than 10{sup 8} M {sub ⊙}. The presence of diffuse Hα emission in the inner 5″ suggests gas flows in the nuclear region.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions

Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Roadmap to reach global net-zero emissions for developing regions by 2085

As climate change intensifies, determining a developing region’s role in achieving net-zero emissions worldwide is crucial. However, regional efforts, considering historical emissions, remain underexplored. Here, we assess energy system changes, technology adoption, and investments needed for developing regions, including five major- and minor-emitting nations. Our analysis, using an integrated assessment model, shows a large gap in regional efforts toward global net-zero emissions, stemming from the necessary shift of energy systems to low-carbon resources. The use of new technologies, like electric vehicles, hydrogen, and carbon capture, varies by region, with the highest adoption required between 2020 and 2030. Financing this shift needs an average gross domestic product (GDP) investment rise of 0.464% in minor-emitting regions and up to 2.1% in major-emitting regions by 2085. Our results could guide policies and support setting quantifiable targets for developing nations. The findings are key to facilitating strategic technology use and finance mobilization to achieve a carbon-neutral future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micro-tensile characteristics of As-fabricated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particle buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions

A recently developed micro-tensile sample preparation technique was implemented to evaluate the tensile strengths of the buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions of the unirradiated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particles. Understanding the mechanical properties of the buffer-IPyC interlayer is essential for developing thermomechanical models of buffer-IPyC separation, yet there is a lack of experimental data on its micro-tensile properties. TEM analysis was conducted on these regions to determine the microstructural changes relevant to the samples' tensile properties. In the unirradiated TRISO particle samples, the buffer layer demonstrated the weakest tensile strength, while the IPyC layer exhibited the highest. Conversely, in the irradiated TRISO particle samples, the buffer-IPyC interlayer region showed the lowest tensile strength, with the IPyC layer being the strongest. Fractures in the samples from the buffer-IPyC region predominantly occurred either in the buffer layer or at the buffer-IPyC interface. However, some buffer-IPyC interlayer samples displayed stress-strain and fracture behaviors more akin to the IPyC layer than the buffer layer. Analysis of diffraction patterns suggests that irradiation may have increased anisotropy in the three regions tested. Despite this suggested increase in anisotropy, there was no evidence that it affected the measured strengths. The irradiated TRISO particles demonstrated a considerable increase in void space and a decrease in ultimate tensile strength within the buffer-IPyC interlayer region due to the densification and contraction of the buffer layer. Minor variations in diffraction ring patterns were also observed. These changes, coupled with a significant reduction in the Weibull modulus/shape parameter, imply that irradiation-induced densification leads to tearing between the buffer and IPyC layers at locations of elevated porosity in the buffer-IPyC interlayer region.

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Regional Seismic Velocity Models With Higher‐Resolution Local Results Using Sparse Dictionary Learning

Abstract We use sparse dictionary learning to develop transformations between seismic velocity models of different resolution and spatial extent. Starting with data in the common region of both models, the method can enhance a regional lower‐resolution model to match the style and resolution of local higher‐resolution results while preserving its regional coverage. The method is demonstrated by applying it to two‐dimensional V S and three‐dimensional V P and V S regional and local velocity models in southern California. The enhanced reconstructed regional results exhibit clear visual improvements, especially in the reconstructed V P / V S ratios, and better correlations with geological features. Moreover, the reconstructed regional V P , V S models outperform the original ones in comparison of simulated earthquake waveforms to observations. The improved fitting to observed waveforms extends beyond the domain of the overlapping region. The developed dictionary learning approach provides physically interpretable results and offers a powerful tool for additional applications of data enhancement in earth sciences.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining different 3-D global and regional seismic wave propagation solvers towards box tomography in the deep Earth

SUMMARY In previous publications, we presented a general framework, which we called ‘box tomography’, that allows the coupling of any two different numerical seismic wave propagation solvers, respectively outside and inside a target region, or ‘box’. The goal of such hybrid wavefield computations is to reduce the cost of computations in the context of full-waveform inversion for structure within the target region, when sources and/or receivers are located at large distances from the box. Previously, we had demonstrated this approach with sources and receivers outside the target region in a 2-D acoustic spherical earth model, and demonstrated and applied this methodology in the 3-D spherical elastic Earth in a continental scale inversion in which all stations were inside the target region. Here we extend the implementation of the approach to the case of a 3-D global elastic earth model in the case where both sources and stations are outside the box. We couple a global 3-D solver, SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, for the computation of the wavefield and Green’s functions in a reference 3-D model, with a regional 3-D solver, RegSEM, for the computation of the wavefield within the box, by means of time-reversal mirrors. We briefly review key theoretical aspects, showing in particular how only the displacement is needed to be stored at the boundary of the box. We provide details of the practical implementation, including the geometrical design of the mirrors, how we deal with different sizes of meshes in the two solvers, and how we address memory-saving through the use of B-spline compression of the recorded wavefield on the mirror. The proposed approach is numerically efficient but also versatile, since adapting it to other solvers is straightforward and does not require any changes in the solver codes themselves, as long as the displacement can be recovered at any point in time and space. We present benchmarks of the hybrid computations against direct computations of the wavefield between a source and an array of stations in a realistic geometry centred in the Yellowstone region, with and without a hypothetical plume within the ‘box’, and with a 1-D or a 3-D background model, down to a period of 20 s. The ultimate goal of this development is for applications in the context of imaging of remote target regions in the deep mantle, such as, for example, Ultra Low Velocity Zones.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗