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At least 91 records · Page 5

Observation simulation experiments with regional prediction models

Research efforts in FY 1990 included studies employing regional scale numerical models as aids in evaluating potential contributions of specific satellite observing systems (current and future) to numerical prediction. One study involves Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) which mimic operational initialization/forecast cycles but incorporate simulated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) radiances as input data. The objective of this and related studies is to anticipate the potential value of data from these satellite systems, and develop applications of remotely sensed data for the benefit of short range forecasts. Techniques are also being used that rely on numerical model-based synthetic satellite radiances to interpret the information content of various types of remotely sensed image and sounding products. With this approach, evolution of simulated channel radiance image features can be directly interpreted in terms of the atmospheric dynamical processes depicted by a model. Progress is being made in a study using the internal consistency of a regional prediction model to simplify the assessment of forced diabatic heating and moisture initialization in reducing model spinup times. Techniques for model initialization are being examined, with focus on implications for potential applications of remote microwave observations, including AMSU and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), in shortening model spinup time for regional prediction.

Diak, George↗

Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling

Dynamical downscaling is a crucial process for providing regional climate information for broad uses, using coarser-resolution global models to drive higher-resolution regional climate simulations. The pool of global climate models (GCMs) providing the fields needed for dynamical downscaling has increased from the previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, with limited computational resources, the need for prioritizing the GCMs for subsequent downscaling studies remains. GCM selection for dynamical downscaling should focus on evaluating processes relevant for providing boundary conditions to the regional models and be inspired by regional uses such as the response of extremes to changes in the boundary conditions. This leads to the need for metrics representing processes of relevance to diverse stakeholders and subregions of a domain. Procedures to account for metric redundancy and the statistical distinguishability of GCM rankings are required. Further, procedures for selecting realizations from ensembles of top-performing GCM simulations can be used to span the range of climate change signals in multiple ways. As a result, distinct weighting of metrics and prioritization of particular realizations may depend on user needs. We provide high-level guidelines for such region-specific evaluations and address how CMIP7 might enable dynamical downscaling of a representative sample of high-quality models across representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Infrared emission from ultracompact H II regions

Models of circumstellar dust shells around ultracompact (UC) H II regions were constructed that accurately fit the observed IR flux distributions. The models assume spherically symmetric dust shells illuminated by stars whose bolometric luminosity is inferred from the integrated FIR flux densities. Assuming ionization by a single zero age main sequence (ZAMS) star, the relations of Panagia were used to infer the stellar radius and effective temperature for a given luminosity. The grain mixture in the dust shell consists of bare graphite and silicate grains with the optical properties of Draine and Lee and the size distribution of Mathis et al. The computer code of Wolfire et al was used to solve the radiative transfer equations through a spherical dust shell. The model provides monochromatic luminosities, dust temperatures, and opacities through the shell. Aside from the stellar and dust properties, the only other input parameters to the model are the distance to the shell, the form of its density distribution, and its outer radius. Predictions of the model are compared with observations of a typical UC H II region and the run of dust temperature with radius and the optical depth with frequency are discussed.

Churchwell, ED↗

Modeling Active Region Evolution - A New LWS TR and T Strategic Capability Model Suite

In 2006 the LWS TR&T Program funded us to develop a strategic capability model of slowly evolving coronal active regions. In this poster we report on the overall design, and status of our new modeling suite. Our design features two coronal field models, a non-linear force free field model and a global 3D MHD code. The suite includes supporting tools and a user friendly GUI which will enable users to query the web for relevant magnetograms, download them, process them to synthesize a sequence of photospheric magnetograms and associated photospheric flow field which can then be applied to drive the coronal model innner boundary, run the coronal models and finally visualize the results.

MacNeice, Peter↗

HYBRD (High Resolution HYBrid Regional Downscaling) Model: Input data and Code

The HYBRD (HYBrid Regional Downscaling) model is a high-resolution urban land downscaling model that can be used to downscale intermediate urban land use and land cover (LULC) products into a high-resolution (30-meters). HYBRD uses a sequential hybrid process, combining statistical models with cellular-automata-based spatial algorithms. This repository contains all the necessary model code and inputs needed to successfully run HYBRD for Los Angeles, California. The repo also contains example outputs of each model step, except the final simulated raster outputs. Examples of simulated raster outputs for multiple scenarios for Los Angeles are available at DOI: 10.57931/2575233. Please refer to Related Works below.

Land↗

Intraseasonal Oscillations over South America: A Study with a Regional Climate Model

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model version 2 (RegCM2) is used to investigate the observed characteristics of intraseasonal oscillations over South America. Our study is mainly concentrated on an intraseaonal mode, which is observed to account for a large portion of the intraseasonal variation, to have a standing feature and to be independent of the MJO. The NCEPDOE AMIP-II reanalysis is utilized to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM2 based upon the OOZ, 062, 122 and 182 data.Our results indicate that the intraseasonal oscillation still exists with time- averaged lateral boundary condition, which prevents the MJO and other outside disturbances from entering the model's domain, suggesting a locally forced oscillation responsible for ths intraseasonal mode independent of the MJO. Further experiments show that the annual and daily variabilities and a radiative-convective interaction are not essential to the locally forced intraseasonal oscillation. The intraseasonal oscillations over Amazon in our model essentially result from interactions among atmospheric continental- scale circulation, surface radiation, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, and cumulus convection. The wavelet analyses of various surface energy fluxes and surface energy budget also verify that the primary cause of intraseasonal oscillation is the interaction of land surface processes with the atmosphere.

Chen, Baode↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗

The fully coupled regionally refined model of E3SM version 2: overview of the atmosphere, land, and river results

Abstract. This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) and historical simulations – a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM. The North American (NA) RRM (NARRM) is developed as the high-resolution configuration of E3SMv2 with the primary goal of more explicitly addressing DOE's mission needs regarding impacts to the US energy sector facing Earth system changes. The NARRM features finer horizontal resolution grids centered over NA, consisting of 25→100 km atmosphere and land, a 0.125∘ river-routing model, and 14→60 km ocean and sea ice. By design, the computational cost of NARRM is ∼3× of the uniform low-resolution (LR) model at 100 km but only ∼ 10 %–20 % of a globally uniform high-resolution model at 25 km. A novel hybrid time step strategy for the atmosphere is key for NARRM to achieve improved climate simulation fidelity within the high-resolution patch without sacrificing the overall global performance. The global climate, including climatology, time series, sensitivity, and feedback, is confirmed to be largely identical between NARRM and LR as quantified with typical climate metrics. Over the refined NA area, NARRM is generally superior to LR, including for precipitation and clouds over the contiguous US (CONUS), summertime marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of California, liquid and ice phase clouds near the North Pole region, extratropical cyclones, and spatial variability in land hydrological processes. The improvements over land are related to the better-resolved topography in NARRM, whereas those over ocean are attributable to the improved air–sea interactions with finer grids for both atmosphere and ocean and sea ice. Some features appear insensitive to the resolution change analyzed here, for instance the diurnal propagation of organized mesoscale convective systems over CONUS and the warm-season land–atmosphere coupling at the southern Great Plains. In summary, our study presents a realistically efficient approach to leverage the fully coupled RRM framework for a standard Earth system model release and high-resolution climate production simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗

Dust continuum spectra from model HII regions

The infrared spectrum emitted by nebular dust, heated by the ionizing stars in H II blisters and spherical H II regions, is calculated for various model parameters. Absorption of the non-ionizing radiation in a neutral layer is included. Heating by the Lyman alpha photon field is taken into account. The dust is composed of silicate and graphite grains, and evaporation of the grains in the inner region is considered. The models are presented with a view to interpretation of infrared observations of dusty H II regions and can be applied directly to the infrared astronomy satellite survey data. The continuum emission is compared with calculated fine structure line emission.

Aannestad, P. A.↗

Regional Distribution Models with Lack of Proximate Predictors: Africanized Honeybees Expanding North

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species-environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

PRedictors↗

Regional-Scale Modeling at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Over the past decade, the Goddard Mesoscale Modeling and Dynamics Group has used a popular regional scale model, MM5, to study precipitation processes. Our group is making contributions to the MM5 by incorporating the following physical and numerical packages: improved Goddard cloud processes, a land processes model (Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange - PLACE), efficient but sophisticated radiative processes, conservation of hydrometeor mass (water budget), four-dimensional data assimilation for rainfall, and better computational methods for trace gas transport. At NASA Goddard, the MM5 has been used to study: (1) the impact of initial conditions, assimilation of satellite-derived rainfall, and cumulus parameterizations on rapidly intensifying oceanic cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, (2) the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with the development of narrow cold frontal rainbands, (3) regional climate and water cycles, (4) the impact of vertical transport by clouds and lightning on trace gas distributiodproduction associated with South and North American mesoscale convective systems, (5) the development of a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the TOGA COARE and the diurnal variation of precipitation in the tropics, (6) a Florida sea breeze convective event and a Mid-US flood event using a sophisticated land surface model, (7) the influence of soil heterogeneity on land surface energy balance in the southwest GCIP region, (8) explicit simulations (with 1.33 to 4 km horizontal resolution) of hurricanes Bob (1991) and Bonnie (1998), (9) a heavy precipitation event over Taiwan, and (10) to make real time forecasts for a major NASA field program. In this paper, the modifications and simulated cases will be described and discussed.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Direct and Semi-Direct Radiative Forcing of Biomass-Burning Aerosols Over the Southeast Atlantic (SEA) And Its Sensitivity to Absorbing Properties: A Regional Climate Modeling Study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000–2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July–August–September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10 ∘S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ∼0.5–1 K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ∼0.2–0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m−2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m−2 (most absorbing BBAs).

Marc Mallet↗

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System to the Martian Atmosphere

The core dynamics of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a widely used and powerful mesoscale Earth model, is adapted to the Martian Atmosphere and applied in the study of aeolian surface features. In particular, research efforts focused on the substitution of Martian planetary and atmospheric properties such as rotation rate, and thermodynamic constants in place of hard-wired Earth properties. Application of the model was restricted to three-dimensional flow impinging upon impact craters, and the search for plausible wind patterns that could produce the so-called light and dark streaks downwind of topographic barriers.

Rafkin, Scot C. R.↗

Evaluation of a New Chemical Mechanism for 2-Amino-2-methyl-1-propanol in a Reactive Environment from CSIRO Smog Chamber Experiments

Amines are considered as an emerging class of atmospheric pollutants that are of great importance to atmospheric chemistry and new particle formation. As a typical amine, 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) is one of the proposed solvents for capturing CO 2 from flue gas streams in amine-based post-combustion CO 2 capture plants, and it is expected to result in AMP emission and secondary products formation in the atmosphere. However, the current knowledge of its atmospheric chemistry and kinetics is poorly understood, particularly in a reactive environment. As such, in this work we used the CSIRO smog chamber to study the photo-oxidation of AMP in the presence of VOCs–NOx surrogate mixtures over a range of initial amine concentrations. O 3 formation was significantly inhibited when AMP was added to the surrogate VOCs–NOx mixtures, implying that AMP could alter known atmospheric chemical reaction pathways and the prevailing reactivity. Simultaneously, a large amount of AMP-derived secondary aerosol was formed, with a considerably high aerosol mass yield (i.e. ratio of aerosol formed to reacted AMP) of 1.06±0.20. Based on updated knowledge of its kinetics, oxidation pathways and product yields, we have developed a new mechanism (designated as CSIAMP-19) and integrated into the Carbon Bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism, and evaluated it against available smog chamber data. Compared with the existing AMP mechanism (designated as CarterAMP-08), the modified CB6 with CSIAMP-19 mechanism improves prediction against AMP–VOCs–NOx experiments across a range of initial AMP concentrations, within ±10% model error for gross ozone production. Our results contribute to scientific understanding of AMP photochemistry and to the development of the chemical mechanism of other amines. The updated AMP chemical reactions scheme can be further embedded into the chemical transport model for regional modelling scenarios where AMP-related emissions are of concern.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Case study of modeled and measured D-region plasma densities

Two of the many sounding rockets launched as part of the MAC/Epsilon campaign are particularly suited to test the validity or quality of D region models. The measurements covered atomic oxygen, neutral temperatures and fluxes of charged particles. With these parameters as inputs, one is thus in the position to assess their relevance for the measured parameters, i.e., ion composition, transition heights of clusters and negative ions and total plasma density. The two IOMAS payloads are believed to be the only night flights with associated measurements of atomic oxygen extending below the ledge at about 80 km.

Friedrich, M.↗