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Monitoring issues from a modeling perspective

Recognition that earth's climate and biogeophysical conditions are likely changing due to human activities has led to a heightened awareness of the need for improved long-term global monitoring. The present long-term measurement efforts tend to be spotty in space, inadequately calibrated in time, and internally inconsistent with respect to other instruments and measured quantities. In some cases, such as most of the biosphere, most chemicals, and much of the ocean, even a minimal monitoring program is not available. Recently, it has become painfully evident that emerging global change issues demand information and insights that the present global monitoring system simply cannot supply. This is because a monitoring system must provide much more than a statement of change at a given level of statistical confidence. It must describe changes in diverse parts of the entire earth system on regional to global scales. It must be able to provide enough input to allow an integrated physical characterization of the changes that have occurred. Finally, it must allow a separation of the observed changes into their natural and anthropogenic parts. The enormous policy significance of global change virtually guarantees an unprecedented level of scrutiny of the changes in the earth system and why they are happening. These pressures create a number of emerging challenges and opportunities. For example, they will require a growing partnership between the observational programs and the theory/modeling community. Without this partnership, the scientific community will likely fall short in the monitoring effort. The monitoring challenge before us is not to solve the problem now, but rather to set appropriate actions in motion so as to create the required framework for solution. Each individual piece needs to establish its role in the large problem and how the required interactions are to take place. Below, we emphasize some of the needs and opportunities that could and should be addressed through participation by the theoreticians and modelers in the global change monitoring effort.

Mahlman, Jerry D.↗

Wilbur: A low-cost CCD camera system for MDM Observatory

The recent availability of several 'off-the-shelf' components, particularly CCD control electronics from SDSU, has made it possible to put together a flexible CCD camera system at relatively low cost and effort. The authors describe Wilbur, a complete CCD camera system constructed for the Michigan-Dartmouth-MIT Observatory. The hardware consists of a Loral 2048(exp 2) CCD controlled by the SDSU electronics, an existing dewar design modified for use at MDM, a Sun Sparcstation 2 with a commercial high-speed parallel controller, and a simple custom interface between the controller and the SDSU electronics. The camera is controlled from the Sparcstation by software that provides low-level I/O in real time, collection of additional information from the telescope, and a simple command interface for use by an observer. Readout of the 2048(exp 2) array is complete in under two minutes at 5 e(sup -) read noise, and readout time can be decreased at the cost of increased noise. The system can be easily expanded to handle multiple CCD's/multiple readouts, and can control other dewars/CCD's using the same host software.

Metzger, M. R.↗

Geoid-to-topography ratios on Venus: A global perspective

Recently available spherical harmonic solutions for the geoid and topography of Venus are sufficiently high resolution that they can be used to address questions concerning the relationship between geoid and topography on a regional scale. We have approached this question by mapping the geoid-to-topography ratio (GTR) on a systematic global basis. For a given point on the surface, we consider the geoid and elevation values at all points on a gridded representation of those fields located within a specified distance of the reference point. From the set of paired values, we determine the correlation coefficient and the best-fitting straight line. The latter is the GTR at that position, and the former is a measure of the significance of the derived ratio. This procedure is then repeated for all points on the global grid, yielding maps of the GTR and the correlation coefficient. Unlike previous studies of the GRT on Venus, this apprach permits us to make an objective and systematic search for regions with anomalous GTR's as well as areas that do not demonstrate any strong correlation between geoid and topography. These maps can be updated regularly as new harmonic models of the Venus geoid are produced from new Magellan tracking data. This procedure permits the development of a global perspective on the relationship between GTR and venusian surface tectonics.

Simons, Mark↗

Improvements to TOVS retrievals over sea ice and applications to estimating Arctic energy fluxes

Modeling studies suggest that polar regions play a major role in modulating the Earth's climate and that they may be more sensitive than lower latitudes to climate change. Until recently, however, data from meteorological stations poleward of 70 degs have been sparse, and consequently, our understanding of air-sea-ice interaction processes is relatively poor. Satellite-borne sensors now offer a promising opportunity to observe polar regions and ultimately to improve parameterizations of energy transfer processes in climate models. This study focuses on the application of the TIROS-N operational vertical sounder (TOVS) to sea-ice-covered regions in the nonmelt season. TOVS radiances are processed with the improved initialization inversion ('3I') algorithm, providng estimates of layer-average temperature and moisture, cloud conditions, and surface characteristics at a horizontal resolution of approximately 100 km x 100 km. Although TOVS has flown continuously on polar-orbiting satellites since 1978, its potential has not been realized in high latitudes because the quality of retrievals is often significantly lower over sea ice and snow than over the surfaces. The recent availability of three Arctic data sets has provided an opportunity to validate TOVS retrievals: the first from the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Experiment (CEAREX) in winter 1988/1989, the second from the LeadEx field program in spring 1992, and the third from Russian drifting ice stations. Comparisons with these data reveal deficiencies in TOVS retrievals over sea ice during the cold season; e.g., ice surface temperature is often 5 to 15 K too warm, microwave emissivity is approximately 15% too low at large view angles, clear/cloudy scenes are sometimes misidentified, and low-level inversions are often not captured. In this study, methods to reduce these errors are investigated. Improvements to the ice surface temperature retrieval have reduced rms errors from approximately 7 K to 3 K; correction of microwaves (50 GHz) brightness temperatures for view angle dependence now allows the surface type (open water versus sea ice) to be determined; modifications to the clear/cloud tests have improved cloud detection over sea ice, especially where it is inhomogeneous; and improved surface temperature estimates have resulted in more successful diagnoses of low-level stratification. Applications of improved retrievals to studies of the Arctic energy budget are encouraging. Preliminary calculations of air-ice stress vectors, 10-m wind speed, and horizontal advection of heat and moisture are presented.

Francis, Jennifer A.↗

Evaluation of the Applicability of Solar and Lamp Radiometric Calibrations of a Precision Sun Photometer Operating Between 300 and 1025 nm

Over a period of 3 year a precision Sun photometer (SPM) operating between 300 and 1025 nm was calibrated four times at three different high-mountain sites in Switzerland, Germany, and the United States by means of the Langley-plot technique. We found that for atmospheric window wavelengths the total error (2 sigma-statistical plus systematic errors) of the calibration constants V(sub 0)(lambda), the SPM voltage in the absence of any attenuating atmosphere, can be kept below 1.60% in the UV-A and blue, 0.9% in the mid-visible, and 0.6% in the near-infra red spectral region. For SPM channels within strong water-vapor or ozone absorption bands a modified Langley-plot technique was used to determine V(sub 0)(lambda) with a lower accuracy. Within the same period of time, we calibrated the SPM five times using irradiance standard lamps in the optical labs of the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Switzerland, and of the Remote Sensing Group of the Optical Sciences Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. The lab calibration method requires knowledge of the extraterrestrial spectral irradiance. When we refer the standard lamp results to the World Radiation Center extraterrestrial solar irradiance spectrum, they agree with the Langley results within 2% at 6 or 13 SPM wavelengths. The largest disagreement (4.4%) is found for the channel centered at 610 nm. The results of these intercomparisons change significantly when the lamp results are referred to two different extraterrestrial solar irradiance spectra that have become recently available.

Schmid, Beat↗

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Evaluation of a ''CMOS'' Imager for Shadow Mask Hard X-ray Telescope

We have developed a hard x-ray coder that provides high angular resolution imaging capability using a coarse position sensitive image plane detector. The coder consists of two Fresnel zone plates. (FZP) Two such 'FZP's generate Moire fringe patterns whose frequency and orientation define the arrival direction of a beam with respect to telescope axis. The image plane detector needs to resolve the Moire fringe pattern. Pixilated detectors can be used as an image plane detector. The recently available 'CMOS' imager could provide a very low power large area image plane detector for hard x-rays. We have looked into a unit made by Rad-Icon Imaging Corp. The Shadow-Box 1024 x-ray camera is a high resolution 1024xl024 pixel detector of 50x50 mm area. It is a very low power, stand alone camera. We present some preliminary results of our investigation of evaluation of such camera.

Desai, Upendra D.↗

Chemistry and Transport in a Multi-Dimensional Model

Our work has two primary scientific goals, the interannual variability (IAV) of stratospheric ozone and the hydrological cycle of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our efforts are aimed at integrating new information obtained by spacecraft and aircraft measurements to achieve a better understanding of the chemical and dynamical processes that are needed for realistic evaluations of human impact on the global environment. A primary motivation for studying the ozone layer is to separate the anthropogenic perturbations of the ozone layer from natural variability. Using the recently available merged ozone data (MOD), we have carried out an empirical orthogonal function EOF) study of the temporal and spatial patterns of the IAV of total column ozone in the tropics. The outstanding problem about water in the stratosphere is its secular increase in the last few decades. The Caltech/PL multi-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM) photochemical model is used to simulate the processes that control the water vapor and its isotopic composition in the stratosphere. Datasets we will use for comparison with model results include those obtained by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV and SBUV/2), Stratosphere Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I and II), the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Atmospheric Trace Molecular Spectroscopy (ATMOS) and those soon to be obtained by the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) mission. The focus of the investigations is the exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and between the troposphere and the biosphere.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

The mammalian retina as a clock

Many physiological, cellular, and biochemical parameters in the retina of vertebrates show daily rhythms that, in many cases, also persist under constant conditions. This demonstrates that they are driven by a circadian pacemaker. The presence of an autonomous circadian clock in the retina of vertebrates was first demonstrated in Xenopus laevis and then, several years later, in mammals. In X. laevis and in chicken, the retinal circadian pacemaker has been localized in the photoreceptor layer, whereas in mammals, such information is not yet available. Recent advances in molecular techniques have led to the identification of a group of genes that are believed to constitute the molecular core of the circadian clock. These genes are expressed in the retina, although with a slightly different 24-h profile from that observed in the central circadian pacemaker. This result suggests that some difference (at the molecular level) may exist between the retinal clock and the clock located in the suprachiasmatic nuclei of hypothalamus. The present review will focus on the current knowledge of the retinal rhythmicity and the mechanisms responsible for its control.

Review Literature↗

Mutagenic effects of a single and an exact number of alpha particles in mammalian cells

One of the main uncertainties in risk estimation for environmental radon exposure using lung cancer data from underground miners is the extrapolation from high- to low-dose exposure where multiple traversal is extremely rare. The biological effects of a single alpha particle are currently unknown. Using the recently available microbeam source at the Radiological Research Accelerator Facility at Columbia University, we examined the frequencies and molecular spectrum of S1- mutants induced in human-hamster hybrid (A(L)) cells by either a single or an exact number of alpha particles. Exponentially growing cells were stained briefly with a nontoxic concentration of Hoechst dye for image analysis, and the location of individual cells was computer-monitored. The nucleus of each cell was irradiated with either 1,2,4, or 8 alpha particles at a linear energy transfer of 90 keV/microm consistent with the energy spectrum of domestic radon exposure. Although single-particle traversal was only slightly cytotoxic to A(L) cells (survival fraction approximately 0.82), it was highly mutagenic, and the induced mutant fraction averaged 110 mutants per 10(5) survivors. In addition, both toxicity and mutant induction were dose-dependent. Multiplex PCR analysis of mutant DNA showed that the proportion of mutants with multilocus deletions increased with the number of particle traversals. These data provide direct evidence that a single a particle traversing a nucleus will have a high probability of resulting in a mutation and highlight the need for radiation protection at low doses.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

The Beauty and Complexity of the Brunt Ice Shelf from MOA and ICESat

Beginning in February 2003, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) has determined surface elevations from approx. 86degN to 86degS latitude. To date, altimetry data have been acquired in a series of observation periods in repeated track patterns using all three Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) lasers. This paper will focus on ice shelf elevation data that were obtained in 2003 across the Brunt Ice Shelf and the Stancomb-Wills Ice Tongue. Integrating the altimetry with the recently available MODIS Mosaic of Antarctica (MOA), quantifies the relative accuracy and precision of the resulting ice shelf elevations. Furthermore, the elevation data was processed onto an elevation grid, by regional interpolation across the area s complex glacial features only. Ice thickness estimation from the altimetry of the floating ice is discussed. ICESat operates at 40Hz and its elevation data is obtained every 172m along track. These elevations have a relative accuracy of about 14cm based on the standard deviation of low-slope crossover differences and a precision of close to 2cm for the Laser 2a, Release 21, GLA12 data used here.

Humbert, Angelika↗

Evaluating real-time Java for mission-critical large-scale embedded systems

This paper describes benchmarking results on an RT JVM. This paper extends previously published results by including additional tests, by being run on a recently available pre-release version of the first commercially supported RTSJ implementation, and by assessing results based on our experience with avionics systems in other languages.

real-time Java characterization tests↗

Moisture correspondence between lower and upper troposphere over oceans using AIRS observations

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mounted on Aqua space craft measures vertical profiles of air temperature and humidity using both microwaves and infrared irradiance. The AIRS' level III data that provide gridded values of 1(sup o) latitude by 1(sup o) longitude for the highest temporal resolution of twice per day became available recently (Granger et al. 2005). This level III data were derived from the level II Version 4.0 AIRS retrieval algorithm. This study uses this level III AIRS moisture profile data to reveal geographical correspondences of atmospheric moisture content between the lower and upper troposphere.

Ye, Hengchun↗

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Hong, Yang↗

Evaluation of Low Altitude Cloud Amount Using CALIPSO Observations

Clouds strongly modulate the transfer of solar and thermal radiation within the atmosphere. Changes in the distribution and properties of clouds in a changing climate represent climate feedbacks affecting climate sensitivity, but the predicted responses of clouds from current climate models are inconsistent. Of particular concern is the response of low clouds, and it is recognized that proper representation of low clouds in global models is in need of improvement. Accurate satellite cloud climatologies are necessary to evaluate model performance, but existing climatologies require validation and are inadequate in some respects for model evaluation. CALIPSO and CloudSat have been acquiring high vertical resolution cloud profiles since launch in 2006. These global cloud datasets represent a new tool for evaluation of both models and existing satellite climatologies. While a recently available merged CALIPSO-CloudSat cloud climatology provides the most comprehensive view of global 3-D cloud distribution, the CALIPSO dataset set on its own has several unique characteristics, including profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer with 30 meter vertical resolution. In this paper we investigate the use of CALIPSO data to characterize boundary layer clouds, looking toward the development of a reliable global dataset suitable for evaluation of model performance.

Winker, Dave↗