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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Achieving American Leadership in the Electric Grid Supply Chain Factsheet

The U.S. electric grid consists of more than 22,000 generators; 55,000 substations; 642,000 miles of high-voltage lines; and 6.3 million miles of distribution lines that serve 153 million customers. To date, much of the smart grid transformation has focused on applying advanced digital information and communication technologies to the power grid to improve the system’s efficiency, flexibility, and security. To achieve the full value of grid modernization, we also need advances in grid hardware. Many critical components supporting the power grid have limited to no domestic manufacturing capacity and face complex challenges in supporting a rapid expansion of the grid to meet multiple objectives, including decarbonization goals.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060

Indonesia’s current energy system modeling is heavily focused on the supply side, but emissions reductions in the demand sector have a significant impact on advancing Indonesia’s ambitious emissions reductions goals. To address the gap, we develop a new modeling tool DREAM Indonesia based on a bottom-up, technology-rich demand side framework and formulate projections of demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia in 2020–2060. We find that demand-side energy efficiency and electrification can halve the growth rate of final energy demand to 1.4% annually over 2020–2060 and reverse the growing trend of emissions. The feasibility of full electrification by 2060, coupled with rapid adoption of existing technologies, positions the building sector as a model for achievable decarbonization and a cornerstone of Indonesia’s emissions reductions ambitions. In the industrial sector, extensive emissions reductions of 87% by 2060 (compared to business-as-usual) are achievable through energy efficiency improvements, alongside enhanced material efficiency measures including optimized material usage, low-carbon substitutions, innovative technologies, and increased circularity. In the transportation sector, balancing final energy demand by incorporating energy efficiency improvements across all transport modes, along with electrification particularly in road transportation, could decrease the emissions by up to 82% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual. This study provides insights and modeling approaches for rapidly growing Asian economies as well as other developing countries facing combined development and decarbonization challenges.

DREAM Indonesia↗
DOE OSTI2023

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV in the circular economy, a dynamic framework analyzing technology evolution and reliability impacts

Rapid, terawatt-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) modules is required to decarbonize the energy sector. Despite efficiency and manufacturing improvements, material demand will increase, eventually resulting in waste as deployed modules reach end of life. Circular choices for decommissioned modules could reduce waste and offset virgin materials. We present PV ICE, an open-source python framework using modern reliability data, which tracks module material flows throughout PV life cycles. We provide dynamic baselines capturing PV module and material evolution. PV ICE includes multimodal end of life, circular pathways, and manufacturing losses. We present a validation of the framework and a sensitivity analysis. Results show that manufacturing efficiencies strongly affect material demand, representing >20% of the 9 million tons of waste cumulatively expected by 2050. Reliability and circular pathways represent the best opportunities to reduce waste by 56% while maintaining installed capacity. Shorter-lived modules generate 81% more waste and reduce 2050 capacity by 6%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Futures Study

Dramatic improvements to solar technologies and other clean energy technologies have enabled recent rapid growth in deployment and are providing cost-effective options for decarbonizing the U.S. electric grid. The Solar Futures Study explores the role of solar in decarbonizing the grid. Through state-of-the-art modeling, the study envisions deep grid decarbonization by 2035, as driven by a required emissions-reduction target. It also explores how electrification could enable a low-carbon grid to extend decarbonization to the broader energy system (the electric grid plus all direct fuel use in buildings, transportation, and industry) through 2050.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Abstract Passenger and freight travel account for 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. We explore pathways to reduce transportation emissions using NREL’s TEMPO model under bounding assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancement, and policies. Results show diverse routes to 80% or more well-to-wheel GHG reductions by 2050. Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles coupled with a clean electric grid is essential for deep decarbonization; in the median scenario, zero-emission vehicle sales reach 89% for passenger light-duty and 69% for freight trucks by 2030 and 100% sales for both by 2040. Up to 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity could be needed in 2050 to power plug-in electric vehicles. Increased sustainable biofuel usage is also essential for decarbonizing aviation (10–42 billion gallons needed in 2050) and to support legacy vehicles during the transition. Managing travel demand growth can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity and sustainable fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perceptions of Large-Scale Solar Project Neighbors: Results From a National Survey [Slides]

Driven by favorable economics, policy factors, and decarbonization goals, large-scale solar (LSS, defined here as ground-mounted photovoltaic projects ≥1 MWDC) has expanded rapidly in recent years, with more than 90 gigawatts (GW) now installed across the United States. Growth in LSS deployment is anticipated to accelerate in response to growing electricity demand and utility, state, and federal decarbonization goals. This continued expansion hinges, in part, on the continued support of local residents and decision-makers in communities hosting LSS projects. Understanding the perceptions and attitudes of existing LSS neighbors is critical to inform and enable future LSS deployment, and to improve outcomes for those host communities. As of 2022, there were more than 10 million U.S. homes within 3 miles of LSS plants. Yet, until recently, no comprehensive study had examined the experiences and perceptions of these LSS neighbors. In 2023, a Berkeley Lab team worked with the University of Michigan and Michigan State University to conduct the first-of-its-kind nationally representative survey of LSS neighbors as part of the Community-Centered Solar Development research project. The survey effort ultimately collected 984 responses from residents within 3 miles of existing LSS projects. The survey results are available for download via the full summary analysis slide deck report, as well as a shorter (~4 page) summary brief. The survey instrument (questionnaire) is also available for download for those interested in understanding the survey design or replicating questions in future research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transforming Energy Through Computational Excellence: A Virtual Test-Drive of Energy Scenarios

Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are conducting groundbreaking research to decarbonize transportation systems and reduce emissions. As they plan for growing populations and related demands on aging infrastructure and energy systems, local transportation departments and city planners are facing significant, complex challenges. New approaches to planning and operations, as well as capitalizing on rapidly advancing technology, can address mobility and energy-centric challenges, including cost and energy efficiency, emissions reduction, decarbonization, and congestion.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opening pathways for the conversion of woody biomass into sustainable aviation fuel via catalytic fast pyrolysis and hydrotreating

Meeting aggressive decarbonization targets set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will require the rapid development of technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) can support these efforts by opening pathways for the conversion of woody biomass into an upgraded biogenic oil that can be further processed to SAF and other fuels. However, the absence of end-to-end experimental data for the process leads to uncertainty in the yield, product quality, costs, and sustainability of the pathway. The research presented here serves to address these needs through a series of integrated experimental campaigns in which real biomass feedstocks are converted to a final SAF product using large bench-scale continuous reactor systems. For these campaigns, the degree of catalytic upgrading during CFP was varied to produce CFP-oils with oxygen contents of 17 and 20 wt% on a dry basis. The CFP-oils were then hydrotreated and distilled into gasoline, diesel, and SAF fractions. Detailed yield and compositional data were obtained for each step of the process to inform technoeconomic and lifecycle analyses, and the fuel properties of the SAF fraction were evaluated to provide first-of-its-kind insight into the quality of the final product. This research reveals opportunities to optimize process carbon efficiency by tuning the degree of catalytic upgrading during the CFP step and highlights routes to produce a high-quality cycloalkane-rich SAF with 85–92% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil-based pathways.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

Deep decarbonization paths to the 1.5°C or 2°C temperature stabilization futures require a rapid reduction in conventional coal-fired power plants, but countries are currently building 223 GW of new coal power capacity and plan to build 377 GW more in the next decade. Coal-fired plants are also a major contributor to air pollution related health impacts. Here, we couple an integrated human-earth system model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to examine regional health co-benefits from cancelling new coal-fired plants worldwide. Additionally, we find that cancelling all new proposed projects would decrease air pollution related premature mortality between 101,388 - 213,205 deaths (2-5%) in 2030, and 213,414 - 373,054 (5-8%) in 2050, globally, but heavily concentrated in developing Asia. Furthermore, we estimate that strengthening the climate target from 2°C to 1.5°C would avoid 326,351 additional mortalities in 2030, of which 251,011 (75%) are attributable to the incremental coal plant shutdown.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grand Challenges in the Science of Making Torque from Wind: Then and Now

Shifting the electricity supply to renewable sources within the next two decades is the first step in decarbonizing the energy sector, and wind energy will play a central role in enabling this rapid energy transition to clean energy. The international wind energy research community - including NREL researchers - has determined that for wind power to fulfill its expected role as a major global supplier of carbon-free energy, critical challenges around the design, development, and deployment of wind energy must be addressed - quickly. Paul Veers and other NREL researchers joined 100 worldwide wind energy experts in writing a series of 10 articles for publication in Wind Energy Science. With the support and guidance of the European Academy of Wind Energy Publications Committee, the articles synthesize and clarify the most critical wind energy science needs. This presentation introduces the concept of the Grand Challenges and its 10 articles.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Results of Application Demonstration of Autonomous Offshore Power System Supporting Multiple Mobile and Static Assets

Over the last decade, several technology trends have dominated the innovation cycle within the terrestrial economy. Electrification, cloud computing, decarbonization, digitization, and autonomy are representative examples of macro trends that have had a rapid and fundamental impact; an impact felt not only in user-facing technologies, such as electric vehicles and software-as-a-service, but also in the infrastructure required to deliver those technologies. However, the scale of the impact and rollout has not been felt equally between the terrestrial and ocean economies. Here, the innovation cycle in the ocean economy is significantly slower. What accounts for the difference and are there solutions to this issue?

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Photovoltaics: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

This is one of a series of reports and deep dive assessments produced in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. Over the past decade, solar power has gone from an emerging, niche technology to a mature energy industry. By 2035, solar power could supply 40% or more of U.S. electricity demand, dramatically accelerating the decarbonization of buildings, transportation, and industry; and, if current technology trends continue, it could do so without increasing the price of electricity. The rapid expansion of solar energy has the potential to yield broad benefits in the form of economic activity and workforce development. The solar industry already employs roughly 230,000 people in the United States, at an average wage that is higher than the national average for most comparable positions. By decarbonizing the electricity sector by 2035, the U.S. solar industry could employ 500,000–1,500,000 people by 2030. The components that are assembled to install a photovoltaic power system are produced by a global supply chain. Photovoltaic (PV) modules (also called panels) are made of cells that use a variety of technologies. There are two leading types of solar modules used in the United States, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules representing 84% of the market and cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules representing 16% of the market. Modules of either type require mounting structures to provide mechanical support (racking), which may be configured to follow the sun (tracking). The output of any PV module is direct current (dc), which is almost always converted to alternating current (ac) by an inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anion-derived contact ion pairing as a unifying principle for electrolyte design

Enabling new electrochemical technologies requires systems that can operate under ever-more demanding conditions, and progress in energy storage applications reveals tantalizing opportunities to reimagine electrolyte design for performance at extreme potentials. Here, a common thread among these innovations is the formation of significant populations of contact ion pairs (CIPs) in the electrolyte, regardless of the specific cation chemistry or solvent system. The examples summarized in this review suggest that a set of general electrolyte design rules likely exists, where the purposeful selection of anion chemistry can yield CIP structures with tunable control over reaction thermodynamics, kinetics, and interphase chemistry. Identifying the relevant descriptors for high-performance, anion-derived CIP structures can be achieved utilizing a combined experimental and computational approach, aided by machine learning and artificial intelligence, to more rapidly survey the vast combinatorial space available and to enable a new generation of electrolytes for decarbonized electrochemical processes at scale.

electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Savings in Action: Lessons from Observed and Modeled Residential Solar Plus Storage Systems

The electric grid is rapidly evolving as small-scale, demand-side resources play increasingly important roles in grid operations and decarbonization. Maximizing the potential of demand-side resources involves incentivizing electricity customers to use those resources in ways that benefit the broader electrical grid. These incentives depend largely on the electricity cost savings that customers can realize from demand-side resource adoption. Determining these potential cost savings is a complex task. Cost savings depend on numerous factors, including the characteristics of different technologies, the algorithms that control these devices, system performance, customer behavior, electricity rate structures, and climatic factors. Another challenge is that estimated cost savings are frequently based on modeled rather than observed system performance, particularly in the academic literature. In this study, we begin to fill the gap in empirical research of demand-side resources using data from a new construction residential community equipped with rooftop solar and storage (S+S) in Arizona. We use these data to analyze the factors that determine customer electricity cost savings and emissions impacts of S+S in the real world. We then compare these data to modeled system performance to understand how models deviate from real-world outcomes. Based on these findings, we explore ways to improve such models and, conversely, use modeled results to suggest improvements to actual S+S deployment. The results of these analyses can be summarized in four key findings: 1) rate structures play a central role in the grid and customer value of demand-side resources; 2) certain customers can benefit more from demand-side resource adoption than others; 3) modeled battery dispatch and sizing reveals opportunities for additional cost savings; and 4) optimal dispatches can reduce grid emissions while maximizing bill savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities and Implications for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis in a Decarbonizing Power Sector

Increased deployment of renewable power generation such as wind and solar photovoltaics along with electrification of transportation and other sectors are driving changes in the operation and economics of the electric power sector. Simultaneously, efforts to decarbonize other sectors of the economy such as steelmaking and heavy duty transportation will require significant amounts of electricity to drive electrons to molecules processes. Hydrogen production via water splitting electrolysis is a key near-term technology for decarbonization that interfaces between the power sector and decarbonization efforts in industrial sectors. This poster examines the implications for increased deployment of water electrolyzers in a rapidly evolving energy system. The economic opportunities for low-cost hydrogen production from electrolysis that are facilitated by highly renewable grids will be examined and discussed. Durability, cost, and operational strategies for electrolyzers interacting in these future energy systems are key to enabling hydrogen at scale. This poster will overview these considerations and ongoing work within the U.S. Department of Energy’s H2NEW consortium that is focused on addressing them.

electrolysis↗