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Probabilistic Structural Analysis of the Solid Rocket Booster Aft Skirt External Fitting Modification

NASA has funded several major programs (the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods Project is an example) to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. A probabilistic finite element software code, known as Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress, is used to determine the reliability of a critical weld of the Space Shuttle solid rocket booster aft skirt. An external bracket modification to the aft skirt provides a comparison basis for examining the details of the probabilistic analysis and its contributions to the design process. Also, analysis findings are compared with measured Space Shuttle flight data.

Townsend, John S.↗

NASA Education: Yesterday's Dream...Today's Vision...Tomorrow's Hope

For 50 years, NASA's journeys into air and space have developed humankind's understanding of the universe, advanced technology breakthroughs, enhanced air travel safety and security, and expanded the frontiers of scientific research. These accomplishments share a common genesis: education. Education is a fundamental element of NASA's activities, reflecting a balanced and diverse portfolio of: Elementary and Secondary Education, Higher Education, e-Education, Informal Education, and Minority University Research and Education Programs (MUREP). Previous experience has shown that implementing exciting and compelling NASA missions are critical to inspiring the next generation of explorers, innovators, and leaders. Through partnerships with the Agency's Mission Directorates, other federal agencies, private industries, scientific research, and education/academic organizations, NASA's unique mission and education initiatives (content, people, and facilities) are helping to spark student interest and to guide them toward careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). NASA continues to inspire the next generation of explorers, innovators, and future leaders through its educational investments, which are designed to: (1) Strengthen NASA and the Nation's future workforce -- NASA will identify and develop the critical skills and capabilities needed to ensure achievement of exploration, science, and aeronautics. (2) Attract and retain students in STEM disciplines through a progression of educational opportunities for students, teachers, and faculty -- To compete effectively for the minds, imaginations, and career ambitions of America's young people, NASA will focus on engaging and retaining students in STEM education programs to encourage their pursuit of educational disciplines critical to NASA's future engineering, scientific, and technical missions. 3. Engage Americans in NASA's mission -- NASA will build strategic partnerships and links between formal and informal STEM education providers. Through hands-on, interactive, educational activities, NASA will engage students, educators, families, the general public, and all agency stakeholders in increasing America's science and technology literacy. NASA Education uses multiple methods to assess and evaluate the success of its programs and projects. Methods include strategic planning, management and control, expert evaluations and assessments, competitive acquisition, and analysis of performance measurement data and metrics. Additional control measures are in development. These measures will further improve data collection, assist in assessing return on investments, and provide information for accountability in project and program management. In 2009, NASA directly reached over one million students and over 115,000 educators.

Winterton, Joyce L.↗

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Subspace recursive Fermi-operator expansion strategies for large-scale DFT eigenvalue problems on HPC architectures

Quantum mechanical calculations for material modeling using Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) involve the solution of a nonlinear eigenvalue problem for N smallest eigenvector-eigenvalue pairs, with N proportional to the number of electrons in the material system. Here, these calculations are computationally demanding and have asymptotic cubic scaling complexity with the number of electrons. Large-scale matrix eigenvalue problems arising from the discretization of the Kohn–Sham DFT equations employing a systematically convergent basis traditionally rely on iterative orthogonal projection methods, which are shown to be computationally efficient and scalable on massively parallel computing architectures. However, as the size of the material system increases, these methods are known to incur dominant computational costs through the Rayleigh–Ritz projection step of the discretized Kohn–Sham Hamiltonian matrix and the subsequent subspace diagonalization of the projected matrix. This work explores the potential of polynomial expansion approaches based on recursive Fermi-operator expansion as an alternative to the subspace diagonalization of the projected Hamiltonian matrix to reduce the computational cost. Subsequently, we perform a detailed comparison of various recursive polynomial expansion approaches to the traditional approach of explicit diagonalization on both multi-node central processing unit and graphics processing unit architectures and assess their relative performance in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, scaling behavior, and energy efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗

Stagnation-point heat-transfer rate predictions at aeroassist flight conditions

The results are presented for the stagnation-point heat-transfer rates used in the design process of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle over its entire aeropass trajectory. The prediction methods used in this investigation demonstrate the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to a wide range of flight conditions and their usefulness in a design process. The heating rates were computed by a viscous-shock-layer (VSL) code at the lower altitudes and by a Navier-Stokes (N-S) code for the higher altitude cases. For both methods, finite-rate chemically reacting gas was considered, and a temperature-dependent wall-catalysis model was used. The wall temperature for each case was assumed to be radiative equilibrium temperature, based on total heating. The radiative heating was estimated by using a correlation equation. Wall slip was included in the N-S calculation method, and this method implicitly accounts for shock slip. The N-S/VSL combination of projection methods was established by comparison with the published benchmark flow-field code LAURA results at lower altitudes, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo results at higher altitude cases. To obtain the design heating rate over the entire forward face of the vehicle, a boundary-layer method (BLIMP code) that employs reacting chemistry and surface catalysis was used. The ratio of the VSL or N-S method prediction to that obtained from the boundary-layer method code at the stagnation point is used to define an adjustment factor, which accounts for the errors involved in using the boundary-layer method.

Gupta, Roop N.↗

Development of Semi-Empirical Damping Equation for Baffled Tank with Oblate Spheroidal Dome

Propellant slosh is a potential source of disturbance that can significantly impact the stability of space vehicles. The slosh dynamics are typically represented by a mechanical model of a spring-mass-damper. This mechanical model is then included in the equation of motion of the entire vehicle for Guidance, Navigation and Control analysis. The typical parameters required by the mechanical model include natural frequency of the slosh, slosh mass, slosh mass center location, and the critical damping ratio. A fundamental study has been undertaken at NASA MSFC to understand the fluid damping physics from a ring baffle in the barrel section of a propellant tank. An asymptotic damping equation and CFD blended equation have been derived by NASA MSFC team to complement the popularly used Miles equation at different flow regimes. The new development has found success in providing a nonlinear damping model for the Space Launch System. The purpose of this study is to further extend the semi-empirical damping equations into the oblate spheroidal dome section of the propellant tanks. First, previous experimental data from the spherical baffled tank are collected and analyzed. Several methods of taking the dome curvature effect, including a generalized Miles equation, area projection method, and equalized fill height method, are assessed. CFD simulation is used to shed light on the interaction of vorticity around the baffle with the locally curved wall and liquid-gas interface. The final damping equation will be validated by a recent subscale test with an oblate spheroidal dome conducted at NASA MSFC.

Yang, H. Q.↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.¹ This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A fourth order sharp immersed method for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with stationary and moving boundaries and interfaces

We propose a fourth order Navier-Stokes solver based on the immersed interface method (IIM), for flow problems with stationary and one-way coupled moving boundaries and interfaces. Our algorithm employs a Runge-Kutta-based projection method that maintains high-order temporal accuracy in both velocity and pressure for steady and unsteady velocity boundary conditions. Fourth order spatial accuracy is achieved through a novel fifth order IIM discretization scheme for the advection term, as well as existing high-order interface-corrected finite difference schemes for the other differential operators. Using a set of manufactured flow problems with stationary and moving boundaries, we demonstrate fourth order convergence of velocity and pressure in the infinity norm, both inside the domain and on the immersed boundaries. The solver’s performance is further validated through a range of practical flow simulations, highlighting its efficiency over a second order scheme. Finally, we showcase the ability of our immersed discretization scheme to handle interface-coupled multiphysics problems by solving a conjugate heat transfer problem with multiple immersed solids. Overall, the proposed approach robustly combines the efficiency of high order discretization schemes with the flexibility of immersed discretizations for flow problems with complex, moving boundaries and interfaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 12: The PACE Level 1C data format

NASA's Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will make global ocean color and atmospheric measurements to provide extended data records of ocean ecology and global biogeochemistry, along with polarimetric measurements for advanced observations of aerosols, clouds and the ocean. PACE will contain three instruments: the primary Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), and two multi-angle polarimeters (MAPs). The latter instruments are contributed under a ‘Do-No-Harm’ (to the rest of the PACE mission) principle, and the PACE Science Data Processing System (SDPS) is only required to produce Level-1b (geolocated radiances with calibration applied) data without performance requirements. However, there is a strong desire to produce data in a format that merges the disparate spatial resolutions, viewing geometry and sampling nature of the three instruments. Our terminology for this format is Level 1c (L1C). This format will be an input to Level 2 algorithms produced from standalone MAP instrument observations, or from algorithms employing multi-sensor fusion. Creating the L1C format has several components. This includes choice of projection method, the means by which multi-angle views are properly incorporated into that projection (‘aggregation’) the means to represent wavelength and light polarization state, the selection of data to be included within the L1C file, and the handling of ancillary data either required for L1C file generation or needed in that format for L2 processing.

PACE↗

Optimality criteria design and stress constraint processing

Methods for pre-screening stress constraints into either primary or side-constraint categories are reviewed; a projection method, which is developed from prior cycle stress resultant history, is introduced as an additional screening parameter. Stress resultant projections are also employed to modify the traditional stress-ratio, side-constraint boundary. A special application of structural modification reanalysis is applied to the critical stress constraints to provide feasible designs that are preferable to those obtained by conventional scaling. Sample problem executions show relatively short run times and fewer design cycle iterations to achieve low structural weights; those attained are comparable to the minimum values developed elsewhere.

Levy, R.↗

A hybrid numerical method for three-dimensional spatially-developing free-shear flows

The present novel algorithm for 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations treats a domain which is (1) infinite in the vertical direction, using a mapped spectral method; (2) finite in the streamwise direction, using a classical Fourier method; and (3) homogeneous in the spanwise direction, using high-order compact finite differencing. A projection method is employed which ensures the exact conservation of mass, as well as the satisfaction of the boundary conditions at infinity. The novel aspects of these methods are noted, and the code they constitute is validated in light of several test cases. Results are presented for two- and three-dimensional mixing layers.

Buell, Jeffrey C.↗

Direct Nonlinear Approximation for Security Region Boundary of Integrated Energy Systems: A Polynomial Chaos Expansion Solution

The strong interdependence of electricity, gas, and heating systems can facilitate fault propagation within integrated energy systems (IESs), posing significant challenges to secure operation. This paper proposes a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE)-based approximation method to accurately characterize the IES security region boundary (IES–SRB). By integrating the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions with PCE theory, the IES-SRB approximation problem is reformulated as a set of nonlinear equations concerning the approximation coefficients. Using the Galerkin projection method, these equations are further transformed into a system of projection equations that govern the polynomial approximation coefficients in the IES-SRB approximation. To reduce computational complexity while maintaining high approximation accuracy, a piecewise polynomial approximation method is proposed. Numerical studies on the E39-G20-H6 and E118-G96-H52 IES test systems demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately and effectively construct IES security regions.

Wu, Chenghao [Northeast Electric Power University]↗

Combined forced and free convection in a curved duct

The purpose of this study is to investigate the flow and heat transfer characteristics of a combined forced and free convection flow in a curved duct. Solutions are obtained by solving the low Mach number model of the Navier-Stokes equation using a control volume method. The finite-volume method was developed with the use of a predictor-corrector numerical scheme and some new variations of the classical projection method. Solutions indicated that the existence of a buoyancy force has changed the entire flow structure inside a curved duct. Reversed flow at both inner and outer bend is observed. For moderate Reynolds number, the upstream section of the duct was significantly influenced by the free convection processes. In general, heat transfer is strong at the inner bend of the beginning of the heated section and at the outer bend on the last half of the heated section. The maximum velocity location is strongly influenced by the combined effects of buoyancy and centrifugal forces. A strong buoyancy force can reduce the strength of the secondary flow where it plays an important role in mixing.

Yam, Clement G.↗

Study of optical techniques for the Ames unitary wind tunnels. Part 2: Light sheet and vapor screen

Light sheet and vapor screen methods have been studied with particular emphasis on those systems that have been used in large transonic and supersonic wind tunnels. The various fluids and solids used as tracers or light scatters and the methods for tracing generation have been studied. Light sources from high intensity lamps and various lasers have been surveyed. Light sheet generation and projection methods were considered. Detectors and location of detectors were briefly studied. A vapor screen system and a technique for location injection of tracers for the NASA Ames 9 by 7 foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel were proposed.

Lee, George↗

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗