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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Receptance coupling substructure analysis and chatter frequency-informed machine learning for milling stability

This paper describes a milling stability identification approach that simultaneously considers: physics-based models for the tool tip frequency response functions and stability predictions; the binary result from a milling test (automatically labeled as stable or unstable based on frequency content); chatter frequency when an unstable result is obtained; and user risk tolerance. The algorithm applies probabilistic Bayesian machine learning with adaptive, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to update the probability of stability with each milling test. Furthermore, the result is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimized milling parameters for maximum metal removal rate using all available information.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluation of common cause failures in high safety-significant safety-related digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems at nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems. They are proven to be more reliable, cheaper, and easier to maintain given obsolescence of analog components. However, they also pose new engineering and technical challenges, such as possibility of common cause failures (CCFs) unique to digital systems. Here this paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) that is developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A methodology for evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs was developed as part of the framework. The framework integrates three stages of a typical risk assessment—qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analyses. The quantified risks compared with respective acceptance criteria provide valuable insights for system architecture alternatives allowing design optimization in terms of risk reduction and cost savings. A comprehensive case study performed to demonstrate the framework's capabilities is documented here in this paper. Results show that the PRADIC is a powerful tool capable to identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their impacts on system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prospect Theory and the Favorite Long-Shot Bias in Baseball

We provide new evidence of a favorite long-shot bias for bets placed on baseball games. Our analysis uses the difference of mean run differentials as an observable proxy for the probability of a team to win. When baseball is viewed through this proxy, we see that bettors believe favorites are less likely to win than they actually are and long-shots more likely. This result is consistent with prospect theory, which suggests that large and small probabilities are poorly estimated when making decisions with risk.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Potential for Inadvertent Human Intrusion at the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This paper recommends an approach to inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) at the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). IHI analysis uses the consequences of an individual inadvertently contacting buried waste to set waste concentration limits for near-surface disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Regulatory agencies are increasingly applying risk-informed decision-making to LLW waste management (NRC 2006). Risk-informed decision-making combines scientific risk assessment with stakeholder values and perceptions to determine a level of acceptable risk. Risk considers not only the consequences of an event, but also its probability of occurring.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concentration fluctuations and flammability of cryo-compressed hydrogen and methane jets

Compressed hydrogen stored at cryogenic temperatures has a much higher density than room-temperature storage, which enables large-scale hydrogen storage and transport. An understanding of the release of cryogenic hydrogen from pressurized vessels is needed to evaluate the risk and safety concerns with the use of this fuel. Here, the present work extends the analysis of previous experimental studies that measured the gas concentrations of cryo-compressed hydrogen jets and methane jets using a laser Raman scattering diagnostic system. Since the Raman signals are very small, a denoising algorithm was applied to significantly reduce the noise to enable statistical analysis of the data. The transient features of the turbulent jets were characterized by their concentration intermittencies and probability density functions (PDFs). A two-part PDF was developed to predict the bimodal features of the jet concentration distributions. Then, the flammability factors of the cryogenic jets were calculated based on the intermittency and the PDF.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Distribution Control Theory-Its Potential Application in Risk Management in Financial Systems

Stochastic Distribution Control (SDC) theory [1], originated by the author in 1996, aims at developing modeling and control strategies for dynamic and non-Gaussian stochastic systems by controlling the shape of the probability density functions of some concerned variables and parameters in stochastic systems. It generalizes the capability of standard stochastic differential equations and can therefore be applied to generic non-Gaussian systems. Since it was established in 1996, it has found a wide spectrum of applications in non-Gaussian stochastic system control, data mining, filtering and optimization for uncertain systems. In this short opinion article, discussions will be made on potential applications of SDC theory to financial systems in terms of risk analysis and management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differentially Private Generation of Social Networks via Exponential Random Graph Models

Many social networks contain sensitive relational information. One approach to protect the sensitive relational information while offering flexibility for social network research and analysis is to release synthetic social networks at a pre-specified privacy risk level, given the original observed network. In this work, we propose the DP-ERGM procedure that synthesizes networks that satisfy the differential privacy (DP) via the exponential random graph model (EGRM). We apply DP-ERGM to a college student friendship network and compare its original network information preservation in the generated private networks with two other approaches: differentially private DyadWise Randomized Response (DWRR) and Sanitization of the Conditional probability of Edge given Attribute classes (SCEA). The results suggest that DP-EGRM preserves the original information significantly better than DWRR and SCEA in both network statistics and inferences from ERGMs and latent space models. In addition, DP-ERGM satisfies the node DP, a stronger notion of privacy than the edge DP that DWRR and SCEA satisfy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of a Potential DOOR Endpoint for Hospital-acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-associated Bacterial Pneumonia Using Six Registrational Trials for Antibacterial Drugs

Abstract Background Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an innovative approach to clinical trial design and analysis that uses an ordinal ranking system to incorporate the overall risks and benefits of a therapeutic intervention into a single measurement. Here we derived and evaluated a disease-specific DOOR endpoint for registrational trials for hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP). Methods Through comprehensive examination of data from nearly 4000 participants enrolled in six registrational trials for HABP/VABP submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2005 and 2022, we derived and applied a HABP/VABP specific endpoint. We estimated the probability that a participant assigned to the study treatment arm would have a more favorable overall DOOR or component outcome than a participant assigned to comparator. Results DOOR distributions between treatment arms were similar in all trials. DOOR probability estimates ranged from 48.3% to 52.9% and were not statistically different. There were no significant differences between treatment arms in the component analyses. Although infectious complications and serious adverse events occurred more frequently in ventilated participants compared to non-ventilated participants, the types of events were similar. Conclusions Through a data-driven approach, we constructed and applied a potential DOOR endpoint for HABP/VABP trials. The inclusion of syndrome-specific events may help to better delineate and evaluate participant experiences and outcomes in future HABP/VABP trials and could help inform data collection and trial design.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Sample Size While Improving Equity in Vaccine Clinical Trials: A Machine Learning-Based Recruitment Methodology with Application to Improving Trials of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines in People Who Inject Drugs

Despite the availability of direct-acting antivirals that cure individuals infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), developing a vaccine is critically needed in achieving HCV elimination. HCV vaccine trials have been performed in populations with high incidence of new HCV infection such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Developing strategies of optimal recruitment of PWID for HCV vaccine trials could reduce sample size, follow-up costs and disparities in enrollment. We investigate trial recruitment informed by machine learning and evaluate a strategy for HCV vaccine trials termed PREDICTEE—Predictive Recruitment and Enrichment method balancing Demographics and Incidence for Clinical Trial Equity and Efficiency. PREDICTEE utilizes a survival analysis model applied to trial candidates, considering their demographic and injection characteristics to predict the candidate’s probability of HCV infection during the trial. The decision to recruit considers both the candidate’s predicted incidence and demographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race. We evaluated PREDICTEE using in silico methods, in which we first generated a synthetic candidate pool and their respective HCV infection events using HepCEP, a validated agent-based simulation model of HCV transmission among PWID in metropolitan Chicago. We then compared PREDICTEE to conventional recruitment of high-risk PWID who share drugs or injection equipment in terms of sample size and recruitment equity, with the latter measured by participation-to-prevalence ratio (PPR) across age, sex, and race. Comparing conventional recruitment to PREDICTEE found a reduction in sample size from 802 (95%: 642–1010) to 278 (95%: 264–294) with PREDICTEE, while also reducing screening requirements by 30%. Simultaneously, PPR increased from 0.475 (95%: 0.356–0.568) to 0.754 (95%: 0.685–0.834). Even when targeting a dissimilar maximally balanced population in which achieving recruitment equity would be more difficult, PREDICTEE is able to reduce sample size from 802 (95%: 642–1010) to 304 (95%: 288–322) while improving PPR to 0.807 (95%: 0.792–0.821). PREDICTEE presents a promising strategy for HCV clinical trial recruitment, achieving sample size reduction while improving recruitment equity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗