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At least 91 records · Page 5

Some design considerations for ceramic components in heat engine applications

The design methodology for brittle material structures which is being developed and used at the Lewis Research Center for sizing ceramic components in heat engine applications is reviewed. Theoretical aspects of designing with structural ceramics are discussed, and a general purpose reliability program for predicting fast fracture response due to volume distributed flaws is described. Statistical treatment of brittle behavior, based on the Weibull model, is reviewed and its advantages, as well as drawbacks, are listed. A mechanistic statistical fracture theory, proposed by Batdorf to overcome the Weibull model limitations and based on Griffith fracture mechanics, is summarized. Failure probability predictions are made for rotating annular Si3N4 disks using various fracture models, and the results are compared to actual failure data. The application of these design methods to Government funded ceramics engine demonstration programs is surveyed. The uncertainty in observed component performance emphasizes the need for proof testing and improved nondestructive evaluation to guarantee adequate structural integrity.

Gyekenyesi, John P.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness assessment

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.

Moore, N. R.↗

UNIPASS for AvSP? A Broader View

UNIPASS is a general-purpose probabilistic computer program consisting of three major modules, including preprocessor, solver and postprocessor. UNIPASS contains a user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI), numerous state-of-the-art probabilistic analysis techniques, a large library of statistical distributions and a function module with a large library of support functions that can easily define any complex limit-state function in a scripting FORTRAN-like syntax format. Its inverse probability analysis and sensitivities analysis capabilities make it a powerful design aid in any product cycle. Its precise numerical analysis engine is accurate enough to push the failure probabilities of a design to well below 10 (exp -50). UNIPASS is equipped with advanced artificial intelligence that is designed to handle systems with an essentially unlimited number of random variables with ease and efficiency. Its modular arrangement allows you to tailor an analysis to the desired level of accuracy and efficiency. The depth and comprehensiveness of UNIPASS are built upon the decades of experience and expertise of industry leaders including Boeing Aircraft, NASA and the DoD. Its rich content also makes UNIPASS a valuable instructional tool for random processes and probabilistic mechanics. The topics include: 1) Reliability in AvSP; 2) Role of UNIPASS in AvSP; and 3) Examples. This paper is in viewgraph form.

Wu, N. Eva↗

Life Qualification of Hall Thrusters By Analysis and Test

High power Hall thrusters under development for deep space robotic and human exploration missions have demanding lifetime and operational requirements that make thruster life qualification challenging. The required burn times make it infeasible to conduct multiple tests with durations exceeding the life requirement, and complex wearout phenomena and the need for power throttling during missions complicate analyses and testing. The traditional qualification approach, a single life test that typically demonstrates 50 to 100% margin on the required lifetime, does not provide enough information to demonstrate low failure risk. It is a weak source of statistical information about the location of the peak in the failure probability distribution and provides no information on the width of the distribution. Testing does provide information that can be used to validate physics-based models of failure processes, however, and the combination can be used to assess mission risk. Validated, conservative, deterministic analysis can be used to demonstrate that most failure processes have such large margins that more detailed analysis is unnecessary. For a subset of the failure modes a more detailed probabilistic analysis is required. Pole erosion in a 12.5 kW Hall thruster is used as a detailed example of this qualification process.

Brophy, John R.↗

An Efficient Approach for the Reliability Analysis of Phased-Mission Systems with Dependent Failures

We consider the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with common-cause failures in this paper. Phased-mission systems (PMS) are systems supporting missions characterized by multiple, consecutive, and nonoverlapping phases of operation. System components may be subject to different stresses as well as different reliability requirements throughout the course of the mission. As a result, component behavior and relationships may need to be modeled differently from phase to phase when performing a system-level reliability analysis. This consideration poses unique challenges to existing analysis methods. The challenges increase when common-cause failures (CCF) are incorporated in the model. CCF are multiple dependent component failures within a system that are a direct result of a shared root cause, such as sabotage, flood, earthquake, power outage, or human errors. It has been shown by many reliability studies that CCF tend to increase a system's joint failure probabilities and thus contribute significantly to the overall unreliability of systems subject to CCF.We propose a separable phase-modular approach to the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with dependent common-cause failures as one way to meet the above challenges in an efficient and elegant manner. Our methodology is twofold: first, we separate the effects of CCF from the PMS analysis using the total probability theorem and the common-cause event space developed based on the elementary common-causes; next, we apply an efficient phase-modular approach to analyze the reliability of the PMS. The phase-modular approach employs both combinatorial binary decision diagram and Markov-chain solution methods as appropriate. We provide an example of a reliability analysis of a PMS with both static and dynamic phases as well as CCF as an illustration of our proposed approach. The example is based on information extracted from a Mars orbiter project. The reliability model for this orbiter considers the various phases of Launch, Cruise, Mars Orbit Insertion, and Orbit. Some of the CCF for the orbiter in this mission include environmental effects, such as micrometeoroids, human operator errors, and software errors.

reliability analysis↗

The definition and specification of the near earth environmental criteria for spacecraft thermal design

The variation of the earth's thermal and albedo radiation received by a near-earth orbiting space vehicle or space payload as a result of temporal variation of the earth atmosphere is discussed. A statistical study of current satellite data for determining probability distributions is proposed. With these distributions the thermal designer can define confidence levels on predicted temperature ranges which are compatible with engineering models for use in design, failure probabilities, and spacecraft cost estimates. Use of the distributions in environmental criteria guidelines is also considered.

Gary, G. A.↗

Reliability and Failure in NASA Missions: Blunders, Normal Accidents, High Reliability, Bad Luck

NASA emphasizes crew safety and system reliability but several unfortunate failures have occurred. The Apollo 1 fire was mistakenly unanticipated. After that tragedy, the Apollo program gave much more attention to safety. The Challenger accident revealed that NASA had neglected safety and that management underestimated the high risk of shuttle. Probabilistic Risk Assessment was adopted to provide more accurate failure probabilities for shuttle and other missions. NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" initiative and government procurement reform led to deliberately dismantling traditional reliability engineering. The Columbia tragedy and Mars mission failures followed. Failures can be attributed to blunders, normal accidents, or bad luck. Achieving high reliability is difficult but possible.

accidents↗

Dynamic Fatigue of ULE Glass

Ultra Low Expansion (ULE) glass is used in a number of applications which require a low thermal expansion coefficient. One such application is telescope mirror elements. An allowable stress can be calculated for this material based upon modulus of rupture data; however, this does not take into account the problem of delayed failure. Delayed failure, due to stress corrosion can significantly shorten the lifetime of a glass article. Knowledge of the factors governing the rate of subcritical flaw growth in a given environment enables the development of relations between lifetime, applied stress and failure probability for the material under study. Dynamic fatigue is one method of obtaining the necessary information to develop these relationships. In this study, the dynamic fatigue method was used to construct time-to-failure diagrams for both 230/270 ground and optically polished samples. The grinding and polishing process reduces the surface flaw size and subsurface damage, and relieves residual stress by removing materials with successively smaller grinding media. This resulted in an increase in the strength of the optic during the grinding and polishing sequence. There was also an increase in the lifetime due to grinding and polishing. It was found that using the fatigue parameters determined from the 230/270 grit surface are not significantly different from the optically polished values. Although the lower bound of the polished samples is more conservative, neither time-to-failure curves lie beyond the upper or lower bound of the confidence limits. Therefore, designers preferring conservative limits could use samples without residual stress present (polished samples) to determine the fatigue parameters and inert Weibull parameters from samples with the service condition surface, to determine time-to-failure of the optical element.

Tucker, Dennis S.↗

Lifetime Predictions of a Titanium Silicate Glass with Machined Flaws

A dynamic fatigue study was performed on a Titanium Silicate glass to assess its susceptibility to delayed failure and to compare the results with those of a previous study. Fracture mechanics techniques were used to analyze the results for the purpose of making lifetime predictions. The material strength and lifetime was seen to increase due to the removal of residual stress through grinding and polishing. Influence on time-to-failure is addressed for the case with and without residual stress present. Titanium silicate glass otherwise known as ultra-low expansion (ULE)* glass is a candidate for use in applications requiring low thermal expansion characteristics such as telescope mirrors. The Hubble Space Telescope s primary mirror was manufactured from ULE glass. ULE contains 7.5% titanium dioxide which in combination with silica results in a homogenous glass with a linear expansion coefficient near zero. delayed failure . This previous study was based on a 230/270 grit surface. The grinding and polishing process reduces the surface flaw size and subsurface damage, and relieves residual stress by removing the material with successively smaller grinding media. This results in an increase in strength of the optic during the grinding and polishing sequence. Thus, a second study was undertaken using samples with a surface finish typically achieved for mirror elements, to observe the effects of surface finishing on the time-to-failure predictions. An allowable stress can be calculated for this material based upon modulus of rupture data; however, this does not take into account the problem of delayed failure, most likely due to stress corrosion, which can significantly shorten lifetime. Fortunately, a theory based on fracture mechanics has been developed enabling lifetime predictions to be made for brittle materials susceptible to delayed failure. Knowledge of the factors governing the rate of subcritical flaw growth in a given environment enables the development of relations between lifetime, applied stress and failure probability for the material under study. Dynamic fatigue is one method of obtaining the necessary information to develop these relationships. In this study, the dynamic fatigue method was used to construct a time-to-failure diagram for polished ULE glass.

Tucker, Dennis S.↗

Closed-form solution of decomposable stochastic models

Markov and semi-Markov processes are increasingly being used in the modeling of complex reconfigurable systems (fault tolerant computers). The estimation of the reliability (or some measure of performance) of the system reduces to solving the process for its state probabilities. Such a model may exhibit numerous states and complicated transition distributions, contributing to an expensive and numerically delicate solution procedure. Thus, when a system exhibits a decomposition property, either structurally (autonomous subsystems), or behaviorally (component failure versus reconfiguration), it is desirable to exploit this decomposition in the reliability calculation. In interesting cases there can be failure states which arise from non-failure states of the subsystems. Equations are presented which allow the computation of failure probabilities of the total (combined) model without requiring a complete solution of the combined model. This material is presented within the context of closed-form functional representation of probabilities as utilized in the Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator (SHARPE) tool. The techniques adopted enable one to compute such probability functions for a much wider class of systems at a reduced computational cost. Several examples show how the method is used, especially in enhancing the versatility of the SHARPE tool.

Sjogren, Jon A.↗

Optimum seismic structural design based on random vibration and fuzzy graded damages

This paper presents the fuzzy dynamical reliability and failure probability as well as the basic principles and the analytical method of loss assessment for nonlinear seismic steel structures. Also presented is the optimization formulation and a numerical example for double objectives, initial construction cost and expected failure loss, and dynamical reliability constraints. The earthquake ground motion is based on a stationary filtered non-white noise and the fuzzy damage grade is described by damage index.

Cheng, Franklin Y.↗

Fatigue analysis of mini-mast space truss

The functional, structural adequacy of a 20 meter long generic space truss (Mini-Mast), subjected to fatigue loading, was examined with respect to the failure modes which are most likely to occur during services. The space truss is made of thin-walled tubes having unidirectional, zero degree layups of Celanese G50 graphite fibers/Narmco 5217 epoxy composites. The approach used to investigate the most probable failure mode of the truss under fatigue loading is to determine the stress level, including the types of stress, in the member first, then followed by failure mode analysis based on the stress level just determined. To begin, an approximate beam-parameter truss (BPT) model is analyzed first, followed by a detailed analysis of the truss using a finite element model (FEM) run with NASTRAN code. The response results of the BPT model are used to compare FEM results and to check any major deviation of trend derived from the FEM. The purpose of the work was to search available fatigue data of the tube material, to conduct approximate dynamical stress analysis of the BPT model, to run detailed dynamical stress analysis of the FEM model using NASTRAN code, and to predict the fatigue life of the truss member based on limited fatigue data.

Hwang, Shoi Y.↗

Detection of faults and software reliability analysis

Multiversion or N-version programming was proposed as a method of providing fault tolerance in software. The approach requires the separate, independent preparation of multiple versions of a piece of software for some application. Specific topics addressed are: failure probabilities in N-version systems, consistent comparison in N-version systems, descriptions of the faults found in the Knight and Leveson experiment, analytic models of comparison testing, characteristics of the input regions that trigger faults, fault tolerance through data diversity, and the relationship between failures caused by automatically seeded faults.

Knight, J. C.↗

Effectiveness of back-to-back testing

Three models of back-to-back testing processes are described. Two models treat the case where there is no intercomponent failure dependence. The third model describes the more realistic case where there is correlation among the failure probabilities of the functionally equivalent components. The theory indicates that back-to-back testing can, under the right conditions, provide a considerable gain in software reliability. The models are used to analyze the data obtained in a fault-tolerant software experiment. It is shown that the expected gain is indeed achieved, and exceeded, provided the intercomponent failure dependence is sufficiently small. However, even with the relatively high correlation the use of several functionally equivalent components coupled with back-to-back testing may provide a considerable reliability gain. Implications of this finding are that the multiversion software development is a feasible and cost effective approach to providing highly reliable software components intended for fault-tolerant software systems, on condition that special attention is directed at early detection and elimination of correlated faults.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Defect design of insulation systems for photovoltaic modules

A defect-design approach to sizing electrical insulation systems for terrestrial photovoltaic modules is presented. It consists of gathering voltage-breakdown statistics on various thicknesses of candidate insulation films where, for a designated voltage, module failure probabilities for enumerated thickness and number-of-layer film combinations are calculated. Cost analysis then selects the most economical insulation system. A manufacturing yield problem is solved to exemplify the technique. Results for unaged Mylar suggest using fewer layers of thicker films. Defect design incorporates effects of flaws in optimal insulation system selection, and obviates choosing a tolerable failure rate, since the optimization process accomplishes that. Exposure to weathering and voltage stress reduces the voltage-withstanding capability of module insulation films. Defect design, applied to aged polyester films, promises to yield reliable, cost-optimal insulation systems.

Mon, G. R.↗

Failure Maps for Rectangular 17-4PH Stainless Steel Sandwiched Foam Panels

A new and innovative concept is proposed for designing lightweight fan blades for aircraft engines using commercially available 17-4PH precipitation hardened stainless steel. Rotating fan blades in aircraft engines experience a complex loading state consisting of combinations of centrifugal, distributed pressure and torsional loads. Theoretical failure plastic collapse maps, showing plots of the foam relative density versus face sheet thickness, t, normalized by the fan blade span length, L, have been generated for rectangular 17-4PH sandwiched foam panels under these three loading modes assuming three failure plastic collapse modes. These maps show that the 17-4PH sandwiched foam panels can fail by either the yielding of the face sheets, yielding of the foam core or wrinkling of the face sheets depending on foam relative density, the magnitude of t/L and the loading mode. The design envelop of a generic fan blade is superimposed on the maps to provide valuable insights on the probable failure modes in a sandwiched foam fan blade.

Raj, S. V.↗

Reliability of solid rocket motor cases and nozzles

A recent article in Aerospace America claims that 'the average success ratio of the current U.S. stable of launch vehicles, including upper stages, is about 92 percent (without upper stages it is close to 95 percent). The 8 percent failure probability implies an expected loss of $12M per flight, not including the lost opportunity costs'. Since payload costs are likely to be much greater than launch costs and even more so for the new launch vehicles for the Advanced Launch Development Program (ALDP), the cost of rocket motor unreliability at the current 8 percent rate can run into billions of dollars if expected increases in demand are realized. At an 8 percent failure rate, it is extremely unlikely that failure will occur during the first few ground tests of a new system. At that time, most of the design, analysis and tooling costs of the program have not expended. Since most systems are expected to be used ten to a hundred or more times, the likelihood of one or more failures is very large, and it can be expected that the above losses will be realized in the future. This will occur unless the problems are addressed and remedied. Recent trends suggest the problem is not being addressed adequately.

Crose, James G.↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗