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Results for “probability generating function”

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NASA NTRS2001

Laboratory characterization of silicon avalanche photodiodes (APD) for pulse position modulation (PPM) detection

Two commercially available large area silicon avalanche photodiodes (APD) were characterized in the laboratory. Specifically, the response of the APD’s to a sequence of 8-bit pulse position modulated (256-PPM) laser pulses, with and without background noise, was recorded and stored for post analysis. Empirical probability distribution functions (pdf) were constructed from the signal and noise slot data and compared to pdf’s predicted by an analytical model based on Webb/Gaussian statistics. The limited pulse sequence was also used to generate bit-error rate (BER) versus signal photons per pulse values, albeit with large error bars. These BER measurements were also compared to results predicted using the Gaussian and Webb/Gaussian models for APD channel statistics. While the measurements qualitatively reflect features predicted by theory, significant quantitative deviations are displayed between the measurements and theory. The source of these discrepancies is not currently well understood, but it is surmised that inaccurate knowledge of detector parameters such as gain and noise equivalent temperature models may explain the discrepancies.

Biswas, A.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Wave theory of turbulence in compressible media

An acoustical theory of turbulence was developed to aid in the study of the generation of sound in turbulent flows. The statistical framework adopted is a quantum-like wave dynamical formulation in terms of complex distribution functions. This formulation results in nonlinear diffusion-type transport equations for the probability densities of the five modes of wave propagation: two vorticity modes, one entropy mode, and two acoustic modes. This system of nonlinear equations is closed and complete. The technique of analysis was chosen such that direct applications to practical problems can be obtained with relative ease.

Kentzer, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The reliability of multistate, multioutput systems

A system which can generate multiple signals such that each signal can have different quality states is modeled. A measure of the effectiveness of the system as a function of the status of its components is developed. Assuming only that the probability distribution of the status of each component is known, bounds on the probability distribution of the system's measure of effectiveness are developed.

Subelman, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer

Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Model 0A wind turbine generator FMEA

The results of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) conducted for the Wind Turbine Generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems which are also reflected in this FMEA.

Klein, William E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Model-OA wind turbine generator - Failure modes and effects analysis

The results failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) conducted for wind-turbine generators are presented. The FMEA was performed for the functional modes of each system, subsystem, or component. The single-point failures were eliminated for most of the systems. The blade system was the only exception. The qualitative probability of a blade separating was estimated at level D-remote. Many changes were made to the hardware as a result of this analysis. The most significant change was the addition of the safety system. Operational experience and need to improve machine availability have resulted in subsequent changes to the various systems, which are also reflected in this FMEA.

Klein, William E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing Effects of Potential Build Induced Artifacts in L-PBF Components

Additive manufacture (AM) is utilized for rocket engine component production. Witness marks are visible lines across the surface of an AM part that result from variation in build process. Witness marks have been used as justification to scrap a part with little to no evidence. The probability of witness mark occurrence is relatively high and greatly increases AM part production costs and schedule risks. The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of witness marks generated by intentional build pauses and characterize functional characteristics of the AM components. CT, μ-CT, metallographic, and mechanical test results indicate that witness marks are a surface phenomenon that do not propagate into the bulk of a part and had no statistically significant change on microstructure or properties in AlSi10Mg.

Omar R Mireles↗

NASA NTRS2008

Communication Limits Due to Photon-Detector Jitter

A theoretical and experimental study was conducted of the limit imposed by photon-detector jitter on the capacity of a pulse-position-modulated optical communication system in which the receiver operates in a photon-counting (weak-signal) regime. Photon-detector jitter is a random delay between impingement of a photon and generation of an electrical pulse by the detector. In the study, jitter statistics were computed from jitter measurements made on several photon detectors. The probability density of jitter was mathematically modeled by use of a weighted sum of Gaussian functions. Parameters of the model were adjusted to fit histograms representing the measured-jitter statistics. Likelihoods of assigning detector-output pulses to correct pulse time slots in the presence of jitter were derived and used to compute channel capacities and corresponding losses due to jitter. It was found that the loss, expressed as the ratio between the signal power needed to achieve a specified capacity in the presence of jitter and that needed to obtain the same capacity in the absence of jitter, is well approximated as a quadratic function of the standard deviation of the jitter in units of pulse-time-slot duration.

Moision, Bruce E.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Characterization of nonGaussian atmospheric turbulence for prediction of aircraft response statistics

Mathematical expressions were derived for the exceedance rates and probability density functions of aircraft response variables using a turbulence model that consists of a low frequency component plus a variance modulated Gaussian turbulence component. The functional form of experimentally observed concave exceedance curves was predicted theoretically, the strength of the concave contribution being governed by the coefficient of variation of the time fluctuating variance of the turbulence. Differences in the functional forms of response exceedance curves and probability densities also were shown to depend primarily on this same coefficient of variation. Criteria were established for the validity of the local stationary assumption that is required in the derivations of the exceedance curves and probability density functions. These criteria are shown to depend on the relative time scale of the fluctuations in the variance, the fluctuations in the turbulence itself, and on the nominal duration of the relevant aircraft impulse response function. Metrics that can be generated from turbulence recordings for testing the validity of the local stationary assumption were developed.

Mark, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An investigation into the probabilistic combination of quasi-static and random accelerations

The development of design load factors for aerospace and aircraft components and experiment support structures, which are subject to a simultaneous vehicle dynamic vibration (quasi-static) and acoustically generated random vibration, require the selection of a combination methodology. Typically, the procedure is to define the quasi-static and the random generated response separately, and arithmetically add or root sum square to get combined accelerations. Since the combination of a probabilistic and a deterministic function yield a probabilistic function, a viable alternate approach would be to determine the characteristics of the combined acceleration probability density function and select an appropriate percentile level for the combined acceleration. The following paper develops this mechanism and provides graphical data to select combined accelerations for most popular percentile levels.

Schock, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Visualizing 2D Probability Distributions from Satellite Image-Derived Data

Creating maps of biophysical and geophysical variables using Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite image data is an important component of Earth science. These 2D maps have a single value at every location and standard techniques are used to visualize them. Current tools fall short, however, when it is necessary to describe a distribution of values at each location. Distributions may represent a frequency of occurrence over time, frequency of occurrence from multiple runs of an ensemble forecast or possible values from an uncertainty model. 'Distribution data sets' are described, then a case study is presented to visualize such 2D distributions. Distribution data sets are different from multivariate data sets in the sense that the values are for a single variable instead of multiple variables. Our case study data consists of multiple realizations of percent forest cover, generated using a geostatistical technique that combines ground measurements and satellite imagery to model uncertainty about forest cover. We present several approaches for analyzing and visualizing such data sets. The first is a pixel-wise analysis of the probability density functions for the 2D image while the second is an analysis of features identified within the image. Such pixel-wise and feature-wise views will give Earth scientists a more complete understanding of distribution data sets.

Kao, David↗

NASA NTRS1998

Diamond Analyzed by Secondary Electron Emission Spectroscopy

Diamond is a promising semiconductor material for novel electronic applications because of its chemical stability and inertness, heat conduction properties, and so-called negative electron affinity (NEA). When a surface has NEA, electrons generated inside the bulk of the material are able to come out into the vacuum without any potential barrier (work function). Such a material would have an extremely high secondary electron emission coefficient o, very high photoelectron (quantum) yield, and would probably be an efficient field emitter. Chemical-vapor-deposited (CVD) polycrystalline diamond films have even more advantages than diamond single crystals. Their fabrication is relatively easy and inexpensive, and they can be grown with high levels of doping--consequently, they can have relatively high conductivity. Because of these properties, diamond can be used for cold cathodes and photocathodes in high-power electronics and in high-frequency and high-temperature semiconductor devices.

Krainsky, Isay L.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Split-Step Simulations to Assess the Effects of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence on the Dose Variability of N-Waves and Shaped Booms

The effects of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence on the loudness variability of a sonic boom N-wave and shaped boom are examined with split-step simulations. The shaped boom is representative of a design iteration of the NASA X-59 aircraft. Inhomogeneous atmospheric boundary layer turbulence is generated in the computational domain by a Fourier synthesis method. The N-wave and shaped boom are propagated through turbulent fields representing eight different convection levels measured at the NASA Kennedy Space Center and the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center. Probability density functions of the formation of caustic regions along the propagation direction are computed from the N-wave results, and a parameter to collapse the caustic PDFs that accounts for both fluctuation intensities and length scales is proposed. Statistical results concerning loudness metric variability are presented, and the standard deviations of several metrics are shown to collapse across different convection levels of turbulence for small nondimensional propagation distances. The loudness metric distributions are observed to be well approximated by a normal distribution for a given range of propagation distances, and become increasingly skewed as distance increases. A model function for the dose variability is proposed, and the function parameters are found to be related to the convection level of the turbulence. The model for the dose variability distribution is compared to simulation data that were not used to find the regression parameters of the model. At several nondimensional propagation distances, agreement is observed between the model and the simulation data. These results indicate that the model may be suitable for providing quick estimates of noise dose variability in the primary carpet region across a wide range of atmospheric boundary layer conditions.

Sonic boom↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of VFR Traffic Uncertainty and its Impact on Uncrewed Aircraft Operational Capacity at Regional Airports

This paper proposes a method to characterize Visual Flight Rules traffic around a regional airport. The applicability of the method is discussed in the context of Uncrewed Aircraft operations at a regional airport. The relation between traffic interaction uncertainty and operational capacity at the runway is also investigated. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules is analyzed from historical track data and visualized as heat maps generated at different altitudes. These are used to characterize the spatio-temporal uncertainty associated with traffic density, around a given airport, down to the runway. The traffic patterns at the runway are used to compute the runway capacity as a function of the probability of interaction with traffic operating under visual flight rules. Fort Worth Alliance is used as a representative regional airport for the study. Applications of the traffic characterization methods developed in this paper are also discussed.

VFR traffic, uncertainty, air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of VFR Traffic Uncertainty and its Impact on Uncrewed Aircraft Operational Capacity at Regional Airports

VFR traffic↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Cruise Mach Number Study of Truss-Braced Wing Aircraft

The Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) Phase III was led by Dr. Rakesh K. Kapania and Dr. Joseph A. Schetz at the Multidisciplinary Analysis and Design Center for Advanced Vehicles, Department of Aerospace and Ocean Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg VA. The research was performed from December 2014 to December 2015. Three major areas were investigated: Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) studies of truss braced wing (TBW) and strut braced wing (SBW) vehicles at cruise Mach numbers of 0.7 and 0.8 for a flight mission similar to current market single aisle configurations. The performance and the characteristics of the optimized vehicles were compared to the SUGAR Phase II TBW vehicle. These results were obtained without applying any of the extended transonic aerodynamic and aeroelastic tools that will be discussed later. It was found that the cruise Mach number has a large effect on the best “truss” configuration. At Mach 0.7, an SBW has a better fuel consumption and better take-off gross weight (TOGW). However, at Mach 0.8, the TBW is superior because the jury strut aids in satisfying the flutter constraint; Two-dimensional, steady, transonic aerodynamic analysis of the Boeing Airfoil J (BACJ) airfoil was performed for a range of thickness ratios, Mach numbers and lift coefficients. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were solved to obtain the lift-curve slope, wave drag coefficient, the location of the center of pressure and to predict the separation at the trailing edge, which may lead to buffeting. One of the goals was to develop a database of lift-curve slope and the location of center of pressure, which could be used in a transonic aeroelastic analysis. Another goal was to compare the wave drag coefficients to those predicted by Lock’s fourth-power law and also to compare the transonic effects obtained from RANS simulations to those predicted by the Korn equations. A third goal was to develop a buffet boundary, which can be integrated into the MDO framework to prevent the optimized designs from probable buffeting; A state-space transonic aeroelastic analysis tool was developed, which can incorporate the nonlinear transonic effects in the unsteady aerodynamics but is yet computationally cheap when used within the VT MDO framework. The aeroelastic analysis uses Leishman- Beddoes (LB) indicial functions, which generated a state-space representation of the aeroelastic system. The indicial functions allow the incorporation of data for steady lift-curve slope and location of the center of pressure. Thus, the steady transonic effects are included, and the unsteady aerodynamic responses are a linearization about the steady results. The aeroelastic approach discretizes the wing into numerous strips, which results in a large eigenvalue problem as each strip has eight augmented aerodynamic states as per the LB theory. Thus, to reduce the computation expense, a reduced order model (ROM) was developed. The approach was validated using a few examples.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Natural transfer of viable microbes in space

The possibility and probability of natural transfer of viable microbes from Mars to Earth and Earth to Mars traveling in meteoroids during the first 0.5 Ga and the following 4 Ga are investigated, including: --radiation protection against the galactic cosmic ray nuclei and the solar rays, dose rates as a function of the meteorite's radial column mass (radius x density), combined with dose rates generated by natural radioactivity within the meteorite; and survival curves for some bacterial species using NASA's HZETRN transport code --other factors affecting microbe survival: vacuum; central meteorite temperatures at launch, orbiting, and arrival; pressure and acceleration at launch; spontaneous DNA decay; metal ion migration --mean sizes and numbers of unshocked meteorites ejected and percentage falling on Earth, using current semiempirical results --viable flight times for the microbe species Bacillus subtilis and Deinococcus radiodurans R1 --the approximate fraction of microbes (with properties like the two species studied) viably arriving on Earth out of those ejected from Mars during the period 4 Ga BP to the present time, and during the 700 Ma from 4.5 to 3.8 Ga. Similarly, from Earth to Mars. The conclusion is that if microbes existed or exist on Mars, viable transfer to Earth is not only possible but also highly probable, due to microbes' impressive resistance to the dangers of space transfer and to the dense traffic of billions of martian meteorites which have fallen on Earth since the dawn of our planetary system. Earth-to-Mars transfer is also possible but at a much lower frequency.

Non-NASA Center↗