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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components

The fourth year of technical developments on the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) system for Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods is summarized. The effort focused on the continued expansion of the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) code, the implementation of the Probabilistic Boundary Element Method (PBEM), and the implementation of the Probabilistic Approximate Methods (PAppM) code. The principal focus for the PFEM code is the addition of a multilevel structural dynamics capability. The strategy includes probabilistic loads, treatment of material, geometry uncertainty, and full probabilistic variables. Enhancements are included for the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) algorithms and the addition of Monte Carlo simulation as an alternate. Work on the expert system and boundary element developments continues. The enhanced capability in the computer codes is validated by applications to a turbine blade and to an oxidizer duct.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for space transportation propulsion systems

Information on probabilistic structural analysis methods for space propulsion systems is given in viewgraph form. Information is given on deterministic certification methods, probability of failure, component response analysis, stress responses for 2nd stage turbine blades, Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) structural durability, and program plans. .

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis of Turbomachinery Components

A probabilistic approach is described for aeroelastic analysis of turbomachinery blade rows. Blade rows with subsonic flow and blade rows with supersonic flow with subsonic leading edge are considered. To demonstrate the probabilistic approach, the flutter frequency, damping and forced response of a blade row representing a compressor geometry is considered. The analysis accounts for uncertainties in structural and aerodynamic design variables. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF) and sensitivity factors. For subsonic flow cascade, comparisons are also made with different probabilistic distributions, probabilistic methods, and Monte-Carlo simulation. The approach shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess the effect of uncertainties in design variables on the aeroelastic instabilities and response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic micromechanics for high-temperature composites

The three-year program of research had the following technical objectives: the development of probabilistic methods for micromechanics-based constitutive and failure models, application of the probabilistic methodology in the evaluation of various composite materials and simulation of expected uncertainties in unidirectional fiber composite properties, and influence of the uncertainties in composite properties on the structural response. The first year of research was devoted to the development of probabilistic methodology for micromechanics models. The second year of research focused on the evaluation of the Chamis-Hopkins constitutive model and Aboudi constitutive model using the methodology developed in the first year of research. The third year of research was devoted to the development of probabilistic finite element analysis procedures for laminated composite plate and shell structures.

Reddy, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Cruse, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

Cruse, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

NASA Overview

This viewgraph presentation provides information on computer programs for the application of probabilistics in aerospace design. The presentation defines risk, and lists probabilistic tools which can take risk into account. It then lists current and future examples of NASA aerospace technology program support which utilize probabilistic methods. Current examples include turbofan engines, combustor liners, life estimation, the analysis of rotors and blades, and shuttle ground operations. The 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle is one of the future areas of support. The presentation also suggests other future uses of probabilistic tools in aerospace design, and optimal methods for their implementation.

Rusick, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS1988

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Millwater, H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Composite Loads Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components: Probabilistic Load Model Development

This effort is in support of the development of the expert system of computer codes to predict the loads on select structural components of a space propulsion engine. The development will be based primarily on the space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data base. Because of random variations of the many different sources of the loadings on the selected structural components and transients, a probabilistic approach to the problems was adopted. The goal of this task is to characterize all of the individual sources of loads at critical structural locations, such as the turbine blades, the transfer ducts, and liquid oxygen posts, using state-of-the-art probabilistic methods with varying levels of sophistication. The second phase of this work is the development of a composite load model based on a probabilistic synthesis of the individual load model previously developed. This model will be based on the stochastic combination of the load variables and not on the physical process for the combination of the individual loads to the composite load seen by the selected structural components.

Kurth, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for critical SSME propulsion components

The development of a three-dimensional inelastic analysis methodology for the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME) structural components is described. The methodology is composed of: (1) composite load spectra, (2) probabilistic structural analysis methods, (3) the probabilistic finite element theory, and (4) probabilistic structural analysis. The progress in the development of generic probabilistic models for various individual loads which consist of a steady state load, a periodic load, a random load, and a spike, is discussed. The capabilities of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress finite element code designed for probabilistic structural analysis of the SSME are examined. Variation principles for formulation probabilistic finite elements and a structural analysis for evaluating the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades are being designed.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for space propulsion system components

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for space propulsion system components

Chamis, Christos C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acidities of MgO surface sites: implications for the formation mechanism of Mg(OH) 2

The hydroxylation of periclase (MgO) to brucite (Mg(OH) 2 ) is thought to be an important intermediate step when using MgO to capture CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, the mechanism of hydroxylation of MgO to form Mg(OH) 2 is poorly understood. In this work, we used atomic-scale density functional tight binding simulations coupled with the metadynamics rare event method to analyze the surface chemistry of MgO and the acid dissociation equilibrium constants (pK a ) of its surface sites. The method and parameters were validated by calculating the pK a for hydroxylation of the first shell water bound to aqueous Mg 2+ ion. The pK a value derived using a probabilistic method was 12.3, which is in fair agreement with the accepted value of 11.4, with the difference between them equal to a ∼5 kJ mol −1 error in the calculations. We then extended these pK a calculations to probe the hydroxylation reactions of the surface sites of the MgO(100)–water interface, arriving at pK a s of 5.4 to deprotonate terminal water molecules bound to the surface magnesium sites (η-OH 2 or 〉MgOH 2 ), and 13.9 to deprotonate hydroxylated bridging oxygen sites (μ 5 -oxo or 〉O). Hydroxide (OH − ) adsorption on the surface was also probed and found to be less thermodynamically favorable than deprotonation of the terminal water molecule. The plausibility of the computed pK a s was verified using an activity-based speciation model and compared to pH measurements of water equilibrated with MgO nanoparticles and single crystals. The model predicted a solution pH of 7.1 when surface sites buffered and the pH of 12.0 when MgO dissolution dominated. These are close to the experimental initial solution pHs of 7–7.5 and the long term pHs of ∼10.5. The similarity suggests that the calculated pK a values from the DFTB+/metadynamics simulations are plausible and that these methods can be a useful tool to probe reaction mechanisms involving covalent bonds.

Adapa, Sai Krishna Reddy [Oak Ridge National Labor↗

NASA NTRS2002

TIES for Dummies 3rd Edition (Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection) Basic how to's to implement the TIES method

The TIES method is a forecasting environment whereby the decision-maker has the ability to easily assess and trade-off the impact of various technologies without sophisticated and time-consuming mathematical formulations. TIES provides a methodical approach where technically feasible alternatives can be identified with accuracy and speed to reduce design cycle time, and subsequently, life cycle costs, and was achieved through the use of various probabilistic methods, such as Response Surface Methodology and Monte Carlo Simulations. Furthermore, structured and systematic techniques are utilized from other fields to identify possible concepts and evaluation criteria by which comparisons can be made. This objective is achieved by employing the use of Morphological Matrices and Multi-Attribute Decision Making techniques. Through the execution of each step, a family of design alternatives for a given set of customer requirements can be identified and assessed subjectively or objectively. This methodology allows for more information (knowledge) to be brought into the earlier phases of the design process and will have direct implications on the affordability of the system. The increased knowledge allows for optimum allocation of company resources and quantitative justification for program decisions. Finally, the TIES method provided novel results and quantitative justification to facilitate decision making in the early stages of design so as to produce affordable and quality products.

Kirby, Michelle R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Certification of ICI 1012 optical data storage tape

ICI has developed a unique and novel method of certifying a Terabyte optical tape. The tape quality is guaranteed as a statistical upper limit on the probability of uncorrectable errors. This is called the Corrected Byte Error Rate or CBER. We developed this probabilistic method because of two reasons why error rate cannot be measured directly. Firstly, written data is indelible, so one cannot employ write/read tests such as used for magnetic tape. Secondly, the anticipated error rates need impractically large samples to measure accurately. For example, a rate of 1E-12 implies only one byte in error per tape. The archivability of ICI 1012 Data Storage Tape in general is well characterized and understood. Nevertheless, customers expect performance guarantees to be supported by test results on individual tapes. In particular, they need assurance that data is retrievable after decades in archive. This paper describes the mathematical basis, measurement apparatus and applicability of the certification method.

Howell, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The composite load spectra project

Probabilistic methods and generic load models capable of simulating the load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components are being developed. Four engine component types (the transfer ducts, the turbine blades, the liquid oxygen posts and the turbopump oxidizer discharge duct) were selected as representative hardware examples. The composite load spectra that simulate the probabilistic loads for these components are typically used as the input loads for a probabilistic structural analysis. The knowledge-based system approach used for the composite load spectra project provides an ideal environment for incremental development. The intelligent database paradigm employed in developing the expert system provides a smooth coupling between the numerical processing and the symbolic (information) processing. Large volumes of engine load information and engineering data are stored in database format and managed by a database management system. Numerical procedures for probabilistic load simulation and database management functions are controlled by rule modules. Rules were hard-wired as decision trees into rule modules to perform process control tasks. There are modules to retrieve load information and models. There are modules to select loads and models to carry out quick load calculations or make an input file for full duty-cycle time dependent load simulation. The composite load spectra load expert system implemented today is capable of performing intelligent rocket engine load spectra simulation. Further development of the expert system will provide tutorial capability for users to learn from it.

Newell, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ceramic Inclusions In Powder Metallurgy Disk Alloys: Characterization and Modeling

Powder metallurgy alloys are increasingly used in gas turbine engines, especially as the material chosen for turbine disks. Although powder metallurgy materials have many advantages over conventionally cast and wrought alloys (higher strength, higher temperature capability, etc.), they suffer from the rare occurrence of ceramic defects (inclusions) that arise from the powder atomization process. These inclusions can have potentially large detrimental effect on the durability of individual components. An inclusion in a high stress location can act as a site for premature crack initiation and thereby considerably reduce the fatigue life. Because these inclusions are exceedingly rare, they usually don't reveal themselves in the process of characterizing the material for a particular application (the cumulative volume of the test bars in a fatigue life characterization is typically on the order of a single actual component). Ceramic inclusions have, however, been found to be the root cause of a number of catastrophic engine failures. To investigate the effect of these inclusions in detail, we have undertaken a study where a known population of ceramic particles, whose composition and morphology are designed to mimic the 'natural' inclusions, are added to the precursor powder. Surface connected inclusions have been found to have a particularly large detrimental effect on fatigue life, therefore the volume of ceramic 'seeds' added is calculated to ensure that a minimum number will occur on the surface of the fatigue test bars. Because the ceramic inclusions are irregularly shaped and have a tendency to break up in the process of extrusion and forging, a method of calculating the probability of occurrence and expected intercepted surface and embedded cross-sectional areas were needed. We have developed a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the distributions of these parameters and have verified the simulated results with observations of ceramic inclusions found in macro slices from extrusions and forgings. The ultimate goal of this study will be to use probabilistic methods to determine the reliability detriment that can be attributed to these ceramic inclusions.

Bonacuse, Pete↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗