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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Tendencies of Soil Microbial NO Emissions During HI‐SCALE as Predicted by a Nitrification/Denitrification Scheme
Many atmospheric chemical processes, including the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), are strongly modulated by the reactions of NO and NO 2 (NO x ). Though NO x is controlled by anthropogenic emissions near urban areas, in rural areas soil microbes can be a significant contribution to NO emission globally. The relative rates of emissions of different nitrogen-containing species (e.g., NO, N 2 O, HONO, and N 2 ) are strong functions of soil properties such as temperature, moisture content, pH, and soil carbon and nitrogen pools. However, typical large-scale biogeochemical models either express these emissions simplistically, or not at all. Here we investigate the potential impact of soil NO emissions on atmospheric chemistry and SOA formation over regional and monthly time scales, specifically the 2016 spring and summer Intensive Observational Periods (IOPs) of the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. We implement the soil NO nitrification/denitrification parameterization of Rasool et al. (2019) into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), supplemented by a 1-km soil moisture analysis. We then simulate both IOPs over the U.S. Great Plains, evaluating against ground stations and flight data. We show that soil NO emissions can account for a large fraction of total NO x and locally increase O 3 concentrations by up to 25%, while alleviating negative biases of gases and aerosols toward observations. Soil moisture and temperature changes between IOP1 and IOP2 lead to overall differences in emissions, but with large regional variability due to heterogeneous surface characteristics.
Predictive Control for Autonomous Driving With Uncertain, Multimodal Predictions
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Predicting images for the dynamics of stellar clusters ( π-DOC ): a deep learning framework to predict mass, distance, and age of globular clusters
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Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean
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An Analysis of Methods for Predicting the Stability Characteristics of an Elastic Airplane. Appendix C - Methods for Predicting Stability and Response Characteristics
Methods for calculating stability and response characteristics of elastic aircraft
Some environmental considerations relating to the interaction of the solid rocket motor exhaust with the atmosphere: Predicted chemical composition of exhaust species and predicted conditions for the formation of HCl aerosol
The exhaust products of a solid rocket motor using as propellant 14% binder, 16% aluminum, and 70% (wt) ammonium perchlorate consist of hydrogen chloride, water, alumina, and other compounds. The equilibrium and some frozen compositions of the chemical species upon interaction with the atmosphere were computed. The conditions under which hydrogen chloride interacts with the water vapor in humid air to form an aerosol containing hydrochloric acid were computed for various weight ratios of air/exhaust products. These computations were also performed for the case of a combined SRM and hydrogen-oxygen rocket engine. Regimes of temperature and relative humidity where this aerosol is expected were identified. Within these regimes, the concentration of HCL in the aerosol and weight fraction of aerosol to gas phase were plotted. Hydrochloric acid aerosol formation was found to be particularly likely in cool humid weather.
Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components, for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 1, phase 1: Cyclic materials creep predictions
Cyclic creep response was investigated and design methods applicable to thermal protection system structures were developed. The steady-state (constant temperature and load) and cyclic creep response characteristics of four alloys were studied. Steady-state creep data were gathered through a literature survey to establish reference data bases. These data bases were used to develop empirical equations describing creep as a function of time, temperature, and stress and as a basis of comparison for test data. Steady-state creep tests and tensile cyclic tests were conducted. The following factors were investigated: material thickness and rolling direction; material cyclic creep response under varying loads and temperatures; constant stress and temperature cycles representing flight conditions; changing stresses present in a creeping beam as a result of stress redistribution; and complex stress and temperature profiles representative of space shuttle orbiter trajectories. A computer program was written, applying creep hardening theories and empirical equations for creep, to aid in analysis of test data. Results are considered applicable to a variety of structures which are cyclicly exposed to creep producing thermal environments.
Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Carbon Flux: Lessons Learned from NASA’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions
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Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons Learned From NASA’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions
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Flutter Prediction Report in Support of the High Angle Working Group at the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop
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Shock-Buffet Prediction Report in Support of the High-Angle Working Group at the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop
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Assessment of Climatology and Predictability of Mid-Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in a High-Atmospheric-Resolution Seasonal Prediction System
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Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach
Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.
Template Matching Approach to Signal Prediction
A new approach to signal prediction and prognostic assessment of spacecraft health resolves an inherent difficulty in fusing sensor data with simulated data. This technique builds upon previous work that demonstrated the importance of physics-based transient models to accurate prediction of signal dynamics and system performance. While models can greatly improve predictive accuracy, they are difficult to apply in general because of variations in model type, accuracy, or intended purpose. However, virtually any flight project will have at least some modeling capability at its disposal, whether a full-blown simulation, partial physics models, dynamic look-up tables, a brassboard analogue system, or simple hand-driven calculation by a team of experts. Many models can be used to develop a predict, or an estimate of the next day s or next cycle s behavior, which is typically used for planning purposes. The fidelity of a predict varies from one project to another, depending on the complexity of the simulation (i.e. linearized or full differential equations) and the level of detail in anticipated system operation, but typically any predict cannot be adapted to changing conditions or adjusted spacecraft command execution. Applying a predict blindly, without adapting the predict to current conditions, produces mixed results at best, primarily due to mismatches between assumed execution of spacecraft activities and actual times of execution. This results in the predict becoming useless during periods of complicated behavior, exactly when the predict would be most valuable. Each spacecraft operation tends to show up as a transient in the data, and if the transients are misaligned, using the predict can actually harm forecasting performance. To address this problem, the approach here expresses the predict in terms of a baseline function superposed with one or more transient functions. These transients serve as signal templates, which can be relocated in time and space against the signal background. One then has the ability to reconstruct a signal regardless of the precise timing of the transients. During operation, one applies the actual start times of spacecraft activities as they occur, and produces a reconstructed, accurate predict in real-time. This general approach is valid under two important conditions. First, the transients themselves must be time-invariant. Second, the transients must be reasonably consistent with respect to different operating points. Both of these assumptions are generally valid, but in the case of a complicated system with numerous types of overlapping transients, this approach may not be effective. Fortunately, there tend to be few transients in spacecraft telemetry of sensor quantities or low-level health and status information because these signals rarely reflect multiple different types of operation. Furthermore, if the predict is at least reasonably close to actual operation, the shift either in time, or in the operating point when the transient occurs - is likely to be small. The proposed approach considers three ways to recognize a transient. The first and most reliable is to use a different signal that identifies operating mode - often the transient will be correlated to a change in operating mode, and this change can usually be detected positively from discrete signals in spacecraft telemetry. If there is no useful mode signal, the second option is to identify the transient template by hand, and detect the onset of the transient using a curve-fitting approach. Finally, if one elects not to choose by hand, there is an option for automatic selection. This technique has been applied to sensor data from several JPL missions and industrial applications, demonstrating an improvement in accurate prediction of future behavior and early detection of system problems. This technique is applicable to practically any time-varying, quantitative sensor measurement.
Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion
Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.
Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison
This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.