Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Short-range forecasting and nowcasting, using a simple, isentropic prediction model

A numerical advection model which can be run on a local computer in a real-time forecast environment is described. This isentropic forecast model provides the local forecast office with easy access to temporally and spatially detailed estimates of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind field changes between 12-h rawinsonde observations. Case studies are presented based on the use of the model to predict the preconvective environment in spring and summer situations. Short-term forecasts of midtropospheric static stability patterns and stability index changes are traced for several severe storm events with and without the inclusion of surface data observed during the day. Forecast images of VAS low- and midlevel moisture fields and vertical moisture gradients are compared with the observations to determine the utility of the combined model/VAS imagery as a nowcasting guide.

Petersen, Ralph A.↗

Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) - Medication Impacts on Physiologic Models for Exploration Class EVA Predictive Modeling and Operations

EVA and Environmental Physiology Laboratory (EEPL) wanted to expand upon the previous CSRM Physiologic Map to visually demonstrate the impact of medications on various modeling inputs that map to the seven physiologic models. It is acknowledged various physiologic states present during EVA could impact drug pharmacokinetics (i.e. pressure changes, core body temperature), which could impact pharmacodynamics. However, that is outside the scope of this document. The medications below represent the authors’ assumption of what medications will be available and able to impact an Artemis EVA and do not include the full ISS formulary, a final Artemis medical kit, or additional personal medications for individual crewmember’s chronic medical conditions.

Emma Ives↗

Validation of an Acoustic Impedance Prediction Model for Skewed Resonators

An impedance prediction model was validated experimentally to determine the composite impedance of a series of high-aspect ratio slot resonators incorporating channel skew and sharp bends. Such structures are useful for packaging acoustic liners into constrained spaces for turbofan noise control applications. A formulation of the Zwikker-Kosten Transmission Line (ZKTL) model, incorporating the Richards correction for rectangular channels, is used to calculate the composite normalized impedance of a series of six multi-slot resonator arrays with constant channel length. Experimentally, acoustic data was acquired in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube over the frequency range of 500 to 3500 Hz at 120 and 140 dB OASPL. Normalized impedance was reduced using the Two-Microphone Method for the various combinations of channel skew and sharp 90o and 180o bends. Results show that the presence of skew and/or sharp bends does not significantly alter the impedance of a slot resonator as compared to a straight resonator of the same total channel length. ZKTL predicts the impedance of such resonators very well over the frequency range of interest. The model can be used to design arrays of slot resonators that can be packaged into complex geometries heretofore unsuitable for effective acoustic treatment.

Howerton, Brian M.↗

Closing the loop: model-predictive control for a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

This article presents a model-predictive controller (MPC) for the maximization of the energy efficiency of a closed-circuit desalination reverse osmosis (CCRO) system. CCRO is a process for producing drinking water that is based on a cyclic operation with the following two phases: (a) filtration and (b) drain. In this article, we test model predictive control for optimal control of this process. The most important features of our approach are as follows: (a) the selection of a model structure that enables reliable forecasts of the filtration phase (up to 3 h), (b) an on-line model calibration strategy that ensures model forecast reliability, and (c) the satisfaction of equipment safety and operational constraints on the selected setpoints. We challenge this through deliberate introduction of changes in the unmeasured feed concentration and the applied constraints. Our results indicate that frequent model parameter updates are critical to maintain model reliability for MPC purposes. In addition, we illustrate that parameter identifiability is not guaranteed and that deliberate variation in flow rates is necessary even though the process never operates in steady state. Finally, MPC can compute flow rate setpoints that maximize the energy efficiency of the CCRO process while satisfying the applicable equipment and safety constraints.

closed-circuit reverse osmosis↗

Additively Manufactured Compliant Hybrid Gas Thrust Bearing for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbomachinery: Experimental Evaluation and Fluid–Structure Model Predictions

This paper presents rotating test results and advances an analytical predictive fluid–structure model for a new type of gas-lubricated thrust bearing fabricated using direct metal laser melting. The bearing concept in this study is a compliant hybrid gas thrust bearing that uses external pressurization to increase load carrying capacity, where the testing campaign in this study was only focused on steady-state static performance. The need for the bearing concept comes from enabling highly efficient supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) turbomachinery by replacing oil-lubricated bearings with process gas lubrication. Leveraging the process gas of the turbomachine for bearing lubrication results in lowered bearing power loss, simplified mechanical design, and allows for novel oil-free hermetic drivetrains resulting in an efficient emission-free system. The new concept utilizes hydrostatic pressurization on individual tilting pads flexibly mounted with hermetic squeeze film dampers (HSFDs). This paper focuses on rotating tests of a 173 mm outer diameter gas thrust bearing in air up to 10 krpm and hydrostatic inlet pressures to 365 psi (2.52 MPa). The influence of thrust runner speed and bearing inlet pressure on force deflection characteristics and load carrying capability of the gas film were experimentally evaluated. This work also advances a predictive fluid–structure thrust bearing model using an isothermal ideal-gas-based compressible Reynolds flow equation directly coupled to a lumped stiffness element possessing axial and rotational degrees-of-freedom. The rotating testing demonstrated load capability of 1816 lbs (8.1 kN), which equates to a thrust bearing unit load of 67 psi (0.46 MPa). Gas film force–deflection curves reveal a nonlinear relationship between thrust load and film clearance. Comparison of film thickness values with the predictive model show good agreement under high load and inlet pressure, however deviate as load and pressure decrease. Load capability was shown to increase with increasing hydrostatic inlet pressure, while the increase in thrust runner speed revealed a small decrease in load capacity.

Engineering↗

Atmospheric analysis and prediction model development, volume 1

A set of hemispheric atmospheric analysis and prediction models was designed and tested. All programs were executed on either a 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere. Parameters for objective analysis included sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and twelve levels (from 1,000 to 100 millibars) of temperatures, heights, and winds. Stratospheric extensions (up to 10 millibars) were also provided. Four versions of a complex atmospheric prediction model, based on primitive equations, were programmed and tested. These models were executed on either the 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 grid, using either five or ten computational layers. The coarse-mesh (63 x 63) models were tested using real data for the period 21-23 April 1976. The fine-mesh (187 x 187) models were debugged, but insufficient computer resources precluded production tests. Preliminary test results for the 63 x 63 models are provided. Problem areas and proposed solutions are discussed.

Kesel, P. G.↗

Examination of Perforate Facesheet Impedance Prediction Models

This study examines several perforate facesheet impedance prediction models. Each model is validated with impedances educed from acoustic pressure measurements acquired in the NASA Langley Research Center Normal Incidence Tube (NIT) and Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT). This measurement dataset includes results for 73 NIT samples acquired at sound pressure levels of 100, 120, and 140 dB, and for 9 GFIT samples acquired at SPLs of 120 and 140 dB and at mean flow speeds of Mach 0.0, 0.3, and 0.5. Multiple metrics are evaluated based on different potential applications of the selected perforate facesheet model. An optimizer is then used to modify one of these models to more accurately match the full measurement dataset.

acoustic↗

Comparison of reduced model predictions for divertor detachment onset and reattachment timescales in ASDEX Upgrade and JET experiments

Building on prior analysis of ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) experiments (Henderson et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion63 086024), this study compares simple analytical formula predictions for divertor detachment onset and reattachment timescales in JET experiments. Detachment onset primarily scales with divertor neutral pressure, impurity concentration, power directed to the targets, machine size, and integral perpendicular power decay length. JET experiments, focusing on seeding mixtures of Ne and Ar, align with the detachment onset predictions. Radiation efficiencies among the impurities show good agreement with the model predictions, contrasting with AUG observations which suggested higher efficiency for Ar and lower efficiency for Ne. The time taken to re-ionise the neutral volume in front of the outer target in fully detached divertor conditions was measured following both abrupt increases in injected neutral beam power and, separately, cutting of the impurity gas flow. Re-ionisation of the neutrals occurs within approximately 1 s on JET, which aligns with the simple model prediction derived from AUG data. While the AUG results are not new, their comparison with the JET results enhances understanding, reinforcing confidence in using simple models to predict future reactor scenarios.

JET↗

Experimental test of model predictive control in a variable air volume system

Model predictive control (MPC) has been widely studied as a promising approach for improving energy efficiency and operational flexibility in buildings, yet its real-world performance for commercial variable air volume (VAV) systems remains insufficiently characterized. In particular, the impacts of model mismatch on control robustness, real-time computational burden, and device-level operation are rarely evaluated using long-term field data. Here, this study presents a comprehensive experimental evaluation of MPC applied to a full-scale VAV system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform-2 building with constant cooling/heating temperature setpoints and no occupancy. The study offers three key advantages over existing work: (1) it uses a representative building in a full-scale experimental test, capturing realistic system dynamics and complexity; (2) it evaluates a relatively sophisticated MPC formulation using two different optimization solvers (Gurobi and PSO), fully accounting for computational complexity and methodological diversity; and (3) it systematically assesses potential negative impacts on various building devices, benchmark against a well-established baseline, ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36). To isolate zone- and air-handling-unit–level supervisory control effects, the supply fan was operated with a fixed static pressure setpoint under all strategies, and the trim-and-response static pressure reset in G36 was not enabled. Results show that MPC maintained thermal comfort while improving energy efficiency. Abrupt solar radiation variations degraded performance. Computation times ranged from ∼1 s (Gurobi) to ∼ 70 s (PSO). Compared with G36, MPC achieves 33% energy savings and reduces median reheat coil output by approximately a factor of 5–10 for a representative cooling day under matched weather conditions. However, it increases the maximum discomfort deviation from 0.5 to 1°C and results in a 32% increase in staging frequency. In addition, PSO-based MPC introduced damper oscillations, also affecting actuator longevity.

ASHRAE guideline 36↗

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗

Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development

The program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY or (CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBS is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal. The second year of the program was focused on specimen procurement, TMC system characterization, nondestructive evaluation methods, life prediction model development, and TFE731 engine testing of thermal barrier coated blades. Materials testing is approaching completion. Thermomechanical characterization of the TBC systems, with toughness, and spalling strain tests, was completed. Thermochemical testing is approximately two-thirds complete. Preliminary materials life models for the bond coating oxidation and zirconia sintering failure modes were developed. Integration of these life models with airfoil component analysis methods is in progress. Testing of high pressure turbine blades coated with the program TBS systems is in progress in a TFE731 turbofan engine. Eddy current technology feasibility was established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system.

Strangman, T. E.↗

Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

Fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly on the International Space Station are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

Coker, Robert↗

A thermal NO(x) prediction model - Scalar computation module for CFD codes with fluid and kinetic effects

A thermal NO(x) prediction model is developed to interface with a CFD, k-epsilon based code. A converged solution from the CFD code is the input to the postprocessing model for prediction of thermal NO(x). The model uses a decoupled analysis to estimate the equilibrium level of (NO(x))e which is the constant rate limit. This value is used to estimate the flame (NO(x)) and in turn predict the rate of formation at each node using a two-step Zeldovich mechanism. The rate is fixed on the NO(x) production rate plot by estimating the time to reach equilibrium by a differential analysis based on the reaction: O + N2 = NO + N. The rate is integrated in the nonequilibrium time space based on the residence time at each node in the computational domain. The sum of all nodal predictions yields the total NO(x) level.

Mcbeath, Giorgio↗

A split explicit reformulation of the regional numerical weather prediction model of the Japan Meteorological Agency

The split explicit integration scheme for numerical weather prediction models is employed in a version of the regional numerical weather prediction model of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The finite-difference scheme of the model is designed in the manner proposed by Okamura (1975). The horizontal advection terms in the governing equations are integrated with a time step limited by the wind speed while the terms which describe inertial-gravity oscillations are integrated in a succession of shorter time steps. The physical processes included within the model are precipitation, small-scale convection, surface exchanges of sensible and latent heat, and radiative heating and cooling. An example of a surface pressure forecast over Europe is shown for initial data observed at 0000 GMT 29 December 1979. Quantitative precipitation forecasts over Europe and North America for the 24 h period beginning at 0000 GMT 30 December 1979 are also shown. It is concluded that the model is capable of realistically depicting the evolution of synoptic-scale systems.

Duffy, D. G.↗

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

The objectives of this program are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, and then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The program is divided into two phases, each consisting of several tasks. The work in Phase 1 is aimed at identifying the relative importance of the various failure modes, and developing and verifying life prediction model(s) for the predominant model for a thermal barrier coating system. Two possible predominant failure mechanisms being evaluated are bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep. The work in Phase 2 will develop design-capable, causal, life prediction models for thermomechanical and thermochemical failure modes, and for the exceptional conditions of foreign object damage and erosion.

Pilsner, B. H.↗

Transient Efficiency Flexibility and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Model-Predictive Control Library Development (Report)

This document pertains to the reporting requirements of DOE contract FE-0031767. The document covers the development of a model predictive control (MPC) library for implementing MPC for a general dynamic system. The library is implemented in a standardized manner in Matlab/Simulink, where core functions on model prediction, linearization and formulation and solution of a quadratic programming (QP) optimization problem is done in the core library - independent of the specific application. The user can provide the application-specific dynamic model in continuous and discrete time, to rapidly implement and test the MPC performance in a desktop simulation. The MPC optimization objective and constraints are also easily configured via an Excel file to allow iterative refinement as needed. Finally, the MPC library enables a rapid deployment to a target environment through auto C-code generation and containerization. The MPC library works seamlessly with the model based estimation (MBE) library to obtain the overall output feedback control solution. In this program, the reduced order model (ROM) of a coal-fired power plant (CFPP) is used to implement and test the MPC solution.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Comparisons of Impedance Prediction Models for Perforate-over-Honeycomb Liners

A large dataset is used to evaluate the efficacy of multiple impedance prediction models for perforate-over-honeycomb liners. Two-factorial analysis is used to explore the relative importance of the key parameters used in these models. Tests are conducted in the NASALangley Normal Incidence Tube and Grazing Flow Impedance Tube with over eighty perforate facesheets at multiple source sound pressure levels, Mach numbers and frequencies. Each prediction model is then compared with this dataset to determine how well each method predicts the measured data. Finally, an optimizer is used to further improve the ability of one of these models to reproduce the measured results.

acoustic↗