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DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States Appendix: Reference and High Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios for Three Regions [Slides]

This slide deck is an appendix to a paper series that examines potential challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations. The series uses the western U.S. power system for these investigations because it is a region the authors and their colleagues have already extensively studied. We are therefore well-suited to analyze even higher PV penetrations and then examine the results in multiple models to determine whether our current approaches are missing key details that only emerge at higher PV penetrations. This deck details the systems underlying those analyses and how they were modeled using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), a capacity expansion modeling tool. We examine both Western Interconnection-wide and regional results for three regions in the Western U.S. with significantly different existing power systems and connections to neighboring regions; this provides a more balanced picture as to how power systems with high PV penetration might emerge in different contexts and what the resulting grid challenges, if any, might be.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Composite Power System Reliability with Renewables and Customer Flexibility

Composite Power System Reliability is defined as the computational procedure that quantifies the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric power to customers adequately, on a continuous basis and with an acceptable quality. This definition leaves many details undefined and exemplifies the ambiguity in reliability analysis. The increasing deployment of wind and PV creates additional uncertainties that make reliability analysis a rather complex issue. Because of increased uncertainty the need for composite reliability analysis and utilization of results in power system planning is critical. New approaches are emerging for dealing with these problems from the operational point of view, including demand response programs, tapping on customer and distributed resource flexibility and new control approaches. The key question to be addressed is: how the new operational paradigms affect composite power system reliability. Here, this paper presents the ongoing work of the IEEE Composite System Reliability Task Force of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk, Probability Application (RRPA) Subcommittee.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: India

This report is part of a series investigating the potential for utility-scale energy storage in South Asia. The first part of the work is focused on opportunities and barriers for energy storage within existing policy and regulatory frameworks in the region. This report applies the previously-developed Energy Storage Readiness Assessment to evaluate the policy and regulatory environment for energy storage in India. Forthcoming reports will expand this analysis to other countries in South Asia. These evaluations are designed to provide insights on the opportunities and barriers for energy storage growth and deployment in each country. The second part of this work consists of techno-economic analysis to understand the drivers of energy storage investments in South Asia. Using NREL’s power system planning and operational models of South Asia, this analysis will identify potential storage applications and growth under various cost, policy, and demand growth scenarios. In addition, the regulatory and policy barriers and incentive mechanisms identified in the first task will be incorporated into the modeling task to understand their impact on energy storage deployment and operation. Together these studies will inform the applications and value of energy storage on South Asia power systems and policy and regulatory pathways to realize this value.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interactions of Wind Energy Project Siting, Wind Resource Potential, and the Evolution of the U.S. Power System

The interactions of wind energy project siting, resource potential, and power system evolution are critical to understand given interest in high renewable energy systems, particularly as wind costs have fallen and grid operators implement solutions to manage variable generation. This study applies an integrative approach that combines spatially-explicit resource potential analysis with high spatial resolution U.S. electricity system modeling. Multiple wind supply curves, representing variations in siting regimes that account for interactions with built infrastructure, regulatory, physical, and social land use factors, are evaluated to determine how siting could influence prospective wind development. Different siting regimes lead to variations in future wind capacity, with the greatest impacts observed under scenarios with high demand for clean energy. With the tightest emissions limit modeled, 2050 onshore wind capacity varied by +7% (49 GW) in the least-restrictive siting regime to a decrease of 37% (270 GW) under the most-constrained case. More-stringent siting restrictions lead to higher electricity prices and emissions that should be weighed with local impacts. Under restrictive siting regimes, wind deployment is also sensitive to transmission availability and wind plant design. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of local land use considerations in regional and national power system planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Age of Increasing Electrification

The purpose of this paper is to outline considerations of global electrification trends that include the resultant system-wide and nation-wide impacts. How we incorporate resilience into the electrification plans that transition a nation from conventional energy sources to secure clean energy sources can impact the success of those transitions. Electrification of energy systems has the potential to impact power system planning, emissions, and security; however, little research has been done on comprehensive solutions for incorporating resilience into the electrification process. Research has been conducted on aspects of the energy system and electrification, but not holistically across disciplines and related to the interdependencies of different components of the grid system. This gap in research provides an opportunity for more analysis and a collection of best practices to incorporate resilience into electrification plans. Although clean energy is the goal of an increasing number of nations worldwide, there are many considerations in designing clean energy transitions and increased electrification. Resilience must be factored into clean energy transitions from planning, market design, and policies to modernized grid structures and new, location-specific dispersed energy and energy storage technologies.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Department of Energy-National Lab Equity Summit: Grid Planning and Operations (Workshop Report)

This report summarizes the U.S. DOE and national laboratories equity summit that was held on February 5, 2024, and focused on grid planning and operations. The objectives of the summit were to connect DOE and lab researchers working on grid-related equity issues, share information on current and planned grid-related equity projects and initiatives, and inspire and educate participants by hearing from our panelists about solutions and challenges to integrating equity in grid planning and operations. The summit included two panels of industry leaders. The first was a state and community perspectives panel that included representatives from a state public utility commission (Oregon Public Utility Commission), a state energy office (Washington Department of Commerce), a state utility consumer advocate (Connecticut Consumer Counsel), and industry consultants (Elevated Engagement and ArkSpring Consulting). Panelists shared successes they have seen, critical challenges related to equity and grid planning and operations, and other considerations. The second panel addressed utility perspectives and included representatives from two utilities (Commonwealth Edison and Tacoma Power), the National Rural Electric Cooperative (NRECA), and a former utility employee and legal consultant. Panelists discussed the role of the utility concerning equity, the most significant technical and data modeling needs and opportunities, and the role the labs could help advance equity in grid planning and operations. There was also a session on partner organization presentations. Argonne National Laboratory made a short presentation on the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) project they are leading on equity-informed power system planning. NARUC, NASEO, and the Clean Energy States Alliance, as partners of the GMLC project also shared updates on relevant activities and resources. During the summit, there were two rounds of lightning presentations by national labs and DOE highlighting research that addresses equity and grid planning and operations (Tables 5 and 6 and slides in the Appendix). The goal of the lightning rounds was to share information between participants to encourage collaboration and leverage ongoing research at labs and DOE. The summit included two interactive exercises where summit participants shared their perspectives on relevant equity projects and initiatives (Table 2), key challenges regarding equity and grid planning and operations (Table 3), and promising innovations or progress (Table 4). At the end of the session, participants were asked to share essential insights from the event (Table 7) and an action they plan to take as a result of the event. Participants agreed that the event was useful in helping them share and learn from each other. The project team plans to use the information from the summit as a starting point to help inform future research and technical assistance. In 2026, another Equity Summit will be held (virtually or in person) as part of the same project to help raise awareness and disseminate research and resources completed during the project's duration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Analysis of the Effects of Renewable Energy Intermittency on the 2030 Korean Electricity Market

Republic of Korea has unique geographical characteristics similar to those of an island, resulting in an isolated power system. For this reason, securing sufficient operating reserves for the system’s stability and reliability in the face of the intermittency of increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) is paramount, and this will pave the way to achieving the nation’s decarbonization target and carbon neutrality. However, the current reserve-operation method in Republic of Korea does not take into account energy-system conditions, such as the intermittency of the VRE. Therefore, this paper presents an analysis of the impact of changes in reserve-operation methods on the electricity market in the future Republic of Korean power system, with the increased levels of VRE that are currently envisioned. Specifically, three reserve-operation methods, including Korea’s current reserve-power-operation standards, were applied to the two power-system plans announced by the Korean government to analyze the annual generator operation and costs. The analysis results show that securing reserves proportional to the VRE would exert negative effects, such as increased power-generation costs and the curtailment of nuclear and VRE generation. These results can contribute to the estimation of operational reserves needed for high levels of VRE and to the design of new the Korean reserve market, to be introduced in 2025.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Power Flow Approximations With Second-Order Sensitivity Insights

The power flow equations are fundamental to power system planning, analysis, and control. However, the inherent non-linearity and non-convexity of these equations present formidable obstacles in problem-solving processes. To mitigate these challenges, recent research has proposed adaptive power flow linearizations that aim to achieve accuracy over wide operating ranges. The accuracy of these approximations inherently depends on the curvature of the power flow equations within these ranges, which necessitates considering second-order sensitivities. In this paper, we leverage second-order sensitivities to both analyze and improve power flow approximations. We evaluate the curvature across broad operational ranges and subsequently utilize this information to inform the computation of various sample-based power flow approximation techniques. Additionally, we leverage second-order sensitivities to guide the development of rational approximations that yield linear constraints in optimization problems. In conclusion, this approach is extended to enhance accuracy beyond the limitations of linear functions across varied operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Stage and Multi-Timescale Robust Co-Optimization Planning for Reliable and Sustainable Power Systems. Final Report

In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

North American Renewables Integration Study (NARIS): Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-16-00633

The goal of the study is to help inform and assist power system planning entities, electricity system operators, government energy agencies, legislators and regulators to better understand the planning, engineering, operational, and economic implications of integrating large amounts of wind, solar and hydro energy into the Canadian, US and Mexican electrical systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗