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Results for “posterior consistency”

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NASA NTRS1992

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Jefferys, William H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Variational Autoencoder Model Toward Molecular Structure Representation Learning of Fuels

Here, in this work, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE)-based data-driven modeling framework is developed with the overarching goal of enabling fuel design. The VAE model is trained on a large dataset with several chemical species to learn a compressed latent space molecular representation. Chemical structure in the form of Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) string is fed as input, encoded into the VAE latent space, and decoded back to the SMILES string using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Complexities of the VAE training loss function are thoroughly examined by varying the weightage (beta (𝜷) parameter) of the latent space regularization term, thereby assessing the balance between reconstruction accuracy and validity, and focusing on both accurate molecular structure reconstruction and latent space consistency. Two different strategies for 𝜷 variation are evaluated: linear annealing and cyclic annealing. In addition, the impact of total correlation adjustment and hierarchical priors is also studied with regard to the balance between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization, and potential issues such as posterior collapse, over-regularization, and poor disentanglement of latent variables. Overall, the best performance of the model is achieved with hierarchical priors and incrementally increasing 𝜷 from 0 to a threshold value of 0.25 over 75 epochs. The generative VAE model can be readily coupled with Quantitative Structure–Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis to develop an integrated end-to-end framework for fuel-property prediction and molecular design of novel promising fuels.

fuel design↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of nuclear-matter density from proton scattering

Background: Proton elastic scattering at intermediate energy is widely employed as a tool for determining the matter radius of atomic nuclei. Here, the sensitivity of the approach relies on high-resolution measurements at small scattering angles and low-momentum transfer. Under these conditions, the Glauber multiple scattering theory accurately describes the proton-nucleus elastic cross section. Purpose: Investigate the sensitivity of the Glauber multiple scattering theory to uncertainties associated with input parameters such as the nuclear-matter density distribution and nucleon-nucleon data. Method: A joint Bayesian inference was performed using 12 angular distributions of elastic scattering at different energies on 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb targets. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was implemented to make an uncertainty quantification analysis for the input parameters used in the Glauber multiple scattering theory. Results: The experimental cross sections were fitted simultaneously using a joint Bayesian inference approach. Posterior probability density distributions of 42 input parameters were obtained from the analysis. A moderate correlation between the nuclear density parameters and the nucleon-nucleon cross sections was found. This correlation impacts the extraction of the nuclear-matter radius. Conclusions: The present analysis provided a consistent method for extracting the nuclear-matter density distribution of 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb from data across different incident energies. Due to the correlation of the nucleon-nucleon cross sections with the other input parameters, a constrained Bayesian inference using free nucleon-nucleon cross section data was performed. The nuclear-matter radii obtained from the analysis are in good agreement with multiple results reported in the literature.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Bayesian Thermonuclear Rate for the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Reaction

Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides the earliest probe of standard model physics, at a time when the universe was less than 1000 seconds old. It determines the abundances of the lightest nuclides, which give rise to the subsequent history of the visible matter in the universe. This work derives new 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear reaction rates based on all available experimental information. This reaction sensitively impacts the primordial abundances of 7 Be and 7 Li during big bang nucleosynthesis. We critically evaluate all available data and disregard experimental results that are questionable. For the nuclear model, we adopt an incoherent sum of single-level, two-channel, R -matrix approximation expressions, which are implemented into a hierarchical Bayesian model, to analyze the remaining six data sets we deem most reliable. In the fitting of the data, we consistently model all known sources of uncertainty, including discrepant absolute normalizations of different data sets, and also take the variation of the neutron and proton channel radii into account, hence providing less biased estimates of the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates. From the resulting posteriors, we extract R -matrix parameters ($E_r, γ^2_n, γ^2_p$) and derive excitation energies and partial and total widths. Our fit is sensitive to the contributions of the first three levels above the neutron threshold. Reaction rates were computed by integrating 10,000 samples of the reduced cross section. Our 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates have uncertainties between 1.5% and 2.0% at temperatures of ≤1 GK. Finally, we compare our rates to previous results and find that the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li rates most commonly used in big bang simulations have uncertainties that are too optimistic.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Project Dinos I: A joint lensing–dynamics constraint on the deviation from the power law in the mass profile of massive ellipticals

The mass distribution in massive elliptical galaxies encodes their evolutionary history, thus providing an avenue to constrain the baryonic astrophysics in their evolution. The power-law assumption for the radial mass profile in ellipticals has been sufficient to describe several observables to the noise level, including strong lensing and stellar dynamics. In this paper, we quantitatively constrained any deviation, or the lack thereof, from the power-law mass profile in massive ellipticals through joint lensing–dynamics analysis of a large statistical sample with 77 galaxy–galaxy lens systems. We performed an improved and uniform lens modelling of these systems from archival Hubble Space Telescope imaging using the automated lens modelling pipeline dolphin. We combined the lens model posteriors with the stellar dynamics to constrain the deviation from the power law after accounting for the line-of-sight lensing effects, a first for analyses on galaxy–galaxy lenses. We find that the Sloan Lens ACS Survey lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.2 are consistent with the power-law profile within 1.1σ (2.8σ) and the Strong Lensing Legacy Survey lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.6 are consistent within 0.8σ (2.1σ), for a spatially constant (Osipkov–Merritt) stellar anisotropy profile. We adopted the spatially constant anisotropy profile as our baseline choice based on previous dynamical observables of local ellipticals. However, spatially resolved stellar kinematics of lens galaxies are necessary to differentiate between the two anisotropy models. Future studies will use our lens models to constrain the mass distribution individually in the dark matter and baryonic components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Dynamical Mass of the Exoplanet β Pictoris b from Combined Direct Imaging and Astrometry

Herein, we present new observations of the planet β Pictoris b from 2018 with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI), the first GPI observations following conjunction. Based on these new measurements, we perform a joint orbit fit to the available relative astrometry from ground-based imaging, the Hipparcos Intermediate Astrometric Data (IAD), and the Gaia DR2 position, and demonstrate how to incorporate the IAD into direct imaging orbit fits. We find a mass consistent with predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and previous works following similar methods, though with larger uncertainties: $12.8^{+5.3}_{–3.2} M_{Jup}$. Our eccentricity determination of ${0.12}_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ disfavors circular orbits. We consider orbit fits to several different imaging data sets, and find generally similar posteriors on the mass for each combination of imaging data. Our analysis underscores the importance of performing joint fits to the absolute and relative astrometry simultaneously, given the strong covariance between orbital elements. Time of conjunction is well-constrained within 2.8 days of 2017 September 13, with the star behind the planet's Hill sphere between 2017 April 11 and 2018 February 16 (±18 days). Following the recent radial velocity detection of a second planet in the system, β Pic c, we perform additional two-planet fits combining relative astrometry, absolute astrometry, and stellar radial velocities. These joint fits find a significantly smaller mass (8.0 ± 2.6 M Jup) for the imaged planet β Pic b, in a somewhat more circular orbit. We expect future ground-based observations to further constrain the visual orbit and mass of the planet in advance of the release of Gaia DR4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Reconstructing the Sky Location of Gravitational-Wave Detected Compact Binary Systems: Methodology for Testing and Comparison

The problem of reconstructing the sky position of compact binary coalescences detected via gravitational waves is a central one for future observations with the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. Different techniques for sky localization have been independently developed. They can be divided in two broad categories: fully coherent Bayesian techniques, which are high latency and aimed at in-depth studies of all the parameters of a source, including sky position, and "triangulation-based" techniques, which exploit the data products from the search stage of the analysis to provide an almost real-time approximation of the posterior probability density function of the sky location of a detection candidate. These techniques have previously been applied to data collected during the last science runs of gravitational-wave detectors operating in the so-called initial configuration. Here, we develop and analyze methods for assessing the self consistency of parameter estimation methods and carrying out fair comparisons between different algorithms, addressing issues of efficiency and optimality. These methods are general, and can be applied to parameter estimation problems other than sky localization. We apply these methods to two existing sky localization techniques representing the two above-mentioned categories, using a set of simulated inspiralonly signals from compact binary systems with a total mass of equal to or less than 20M solar mass and nonspinning components. We compare the relative advantages and costs of the two techniques and show that sky location uncertainties are on average a factor approx. equals 20 smaller for fully coherent techniques than for the specific variant of the triangulation-based technique used during the last science runs, at the expense of a factor approx. equals 1000 longer processing time.

technique used↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Vision for Shape Recovery

We present a new Bayesian vision technique that aims at recovering a shape from two or more noisy observations taken under similar lighting conditions. The shape is parametrized by a piecewise linear height field, textured by a piecewise linear irradiance field, and we assume Gaussian Markovian priors for both shape vertices and irradiance variables. The observation process. also known as rendering, is modeled by a non-affine projection (e.g. perspective projection) followed by a convolution with a piecewise linear point spread function. and contamination by additive Gaussian noise. We assume that the observation parameters are calibrated beforehand. The major novelty of the proposed method consists of marginalizing out the irradiances considered as nuisance parameters, which is achieved by Laplace approximations. This reduces the inference to minimizing an energy that only depends on the shape vertices, and therefore allows an efficient Iterated Conditional Mode (ICM) optimization scheme to be implemented. A Gaussian approximation of the posterior shape density is computed, thus providing estimates both the geometry and its uncertainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of the new method by shape reconstruction results in a 2D case. A 3D version is currently under development and aims at recovering a surface from multiple images, reconstructing the topography by marginalizing out both albedo and shading.

Jalobeanu, Andre↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

tRNA functional signatures classify plastids as late-branching cyanobacteria

Eukaryotes acquired the trait of oxygenic photosynthesis through endosymbiosis of the cyanobacterial progenitor of plastid organelles. Despite recent advances in the phylogenomics of Cyanobacteria, the phylogenetic root of plastids remains controversial. Although a single origin of plastids by endosymbiosis is broadly supported, recent phylogenomic studies are contradictory on whether plastids branch early or late within Cyanobacteria. One underlying cause may be poor fit of evolutionary models to complex phylogenomic data. Using Posterior Predictive Analysis, we show that recently applied evolutionary models poorly fit three phylogenomic datasets curated from cyanobacteria and plastid genomes because of heterogeneities in both substitution processes across sites and of compositions across lineages. To circumvent these sources of bias, we developed CYANO-MLP, a machine learning algorithm that consistently and accurately phylogenetically classifies (“phyloclassifies”) cyanobacterial genomes to their clade of origin based on bioinformatically predicted function-informative features in tRNA gene complements. Classification of cyanobacterial genomes with CYANO-MLP is accurate and robust to deletion of clades, unbalanced sampling, and compositional heterogeneity in input tRNA data. CYANO-MLP consistently classifies plastid genomes into a late-branching cyanobacterial sub-clade containing single-cell, starch-producing, nitrogen-fixing ecotypes, consistent with metabolic and gene transfer data. Phylogenomic data of cyanobacteria and plastids exhibit both site-process heterogeneities and compositional heterogeneities across lineages. These aspects of the data require careful modeling to avoid bias in phylogenomic estimation. Furthermore, we show that amino acid recoding strategies may be insufficient to mitigate bias from compositional heterogeneities. However, the combination of our novel tRNA-specific strategy with machine learning in CYANO-MLP appears robust to these sources of bias with high accuracy in phyloclassification of cyanobacterial genomes. CYANO-MLP consistently classifies plastids as late-branching Cyanobacteria, consistent with independent evidence from signature-based approaches and some previous phylogenetic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

The structure of somatosensory information for human postural control

The goal of the present study was to determine the properties of the somatosensory stimulus that alter its temporal coupling to body sway. Six standing subjects were tested while touching a metal plate positioned either directly in front of or lateral to the subject. In each condition, the plate moved 4 mm at 0.2 Hz in either the medial-lateral (ML) or anterior-posterior direction (AP). The results showed that coupling between body sway and touch plate movement was strongest when the touch plate moved in a direction along the longitudinal axis of the arm. Coupling strength was weaker when the touch plate moved perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of the arm. The results consistently show that a radial expansion stimulus was more effective than a lamellar-type stimulus at the fingertip. Moreover, somatosensory information from a surface is interpreted in terms of the orientation of the contact limb and the potential degrees of freedom available through its movement.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2019

MOA-bin-29b: A Microlensing Gas-giant Planet Orbiting a Low-mass Host Star

We report the discovery of a gas-giant planet orbiting a low-mass host star in the microlensing event MOA-bin-29 that occurred in 2006. We find five degenerate solutions with the planet/host-star mass ratio of q ∼ 10(exp−2). The Einstein radius crossing time of all models are relatively short (∼4–7 days), which indicates that the mass of host star is likely low. The measured lens-source proper motion is 5–9 mas/yr depending on the models. Since only finite source effects are detected, we conduct a Bayesian analysis in order to obtain the posterior probability distribution of the lens physical properties. As a result, we find the lens system is likely to be a gas-giant orbiting a brown dwarf or a very late M-dwarf in the Galactic bulge. The probability distributions of the physical parameters for the five degenerate models are consistent within the range of error. By combining these probability distributions, we conclude that the lens system is a gas giant with a mass of M(p)= 0.63(sub +1.13, sub 0.39) M(Jup) orbiting a brown dwarf with a mass of M(h)= 0.06 (sup +0.11, sub -0.04) M(ʘ) at a projected star–planet separation of r⊥ = 0.53(sup +0.89, sub -0.18)au . The lens distance is D(L)= 6.89(sup +1.19, sub -1.19) kpc, i.e., likely within the Galactic bulge.

Iona Kondo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Blunt Impact Brain Injury using Cellular Injury Criterion

The Advanced Combat Helmet (\ACH") military specification (\mil-spec") requires a helmeted magnesium (\Mg") Department of Transportation (\DOT") headform be dropped vertically, with an impact speed of 3.1 m/s (10 ft/s), onto a steel hemispherical target. The pass/fail criteria are based on translational acceleration (150 G) alone, absent of any rotational component. Without a rotational component, the specification's injury risk application is limited to skull fracture and peripheral hematomas (subdural, subarachnoid), since this translational acceleration injury risk assessment is based on the Wayne State Tolerance Curve (\WSTC"). To provide a more comprehensive view of injury for the entire brain, an alternative approach is needed. To meet this need, we worked with a larger group called PANTHER, a collaboration between national laboratories, industry, and academia. Collaborations specific to research and results presented here come from efforts led by Mr. Ron Szalkowski and Mr. Sushant Malave, Ms. Alice Fawzi, and Dr. Christian Franck. We have developed a prototypical injury risk criterion based on the neuronal response to abrupt changes in general motion (translation, rotation, or both). The cellular-based mild traumatic brain injury (\cbmTBI") criterion utilizes both the strain and strain rate of brain tissue to account for the stretch and rate of stretch that occurs throughout the brain as a result of blunt impact to the head. We conducted physical experiments of an ACH-fitted magnesium headform, which produced repeatable headform peak accelerations. Then, we developed a simulation of the experiment, and validated the simulation output with the experimental data. We then substituted the magnesium headform with a human headform, consisting of skin, muscle, bone, gray matter, white matter, cerebral-spinal fluid, membranes, vasculature, intravertebral discs, airway and sinus. We quantified brain injury risk using the cbmTBI criterion, using the current mil-spec test and a modified test. The modified mil-spec test used an inclined anvil target that was located posterior to the crown of the helmet in the axial plane. While the current mil-spec test produced brain deformation from head translation alone, the modified test produced brain deformation from head translation and rotation, which is closer to most real world and combat theater impacts (e.g., such as occur in tertiary blast exposure). Compared to the current mil-spec test, the modified test produced elevated strains in the human digital twin. These data, mapped to the cbmTBI criterion, suggest increased injury risk for blunt impacts that cause rotation and translation, rather than just translation alone. Moreover, these data may lead to a rotational performance metric, which is rooted in the biology and pathology of the brain's response to impact and blast, and which should be used to improve next-generation helmet designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗