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At least 91 records · Page 5

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗

Performing a Comprehensive Unmanned Aircraft System Full Integration Analysis for NASA ARMD

For many years, the concept of routinely flying unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) within the national airspace system (NAS) has been a long-term goal with numerous known and unknown technology and policy obstacles. Just within the last few years, the efforts and advancements from government, industry, and academia-sponsored research and development have greatly shortened the distance to the goal. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) has recognized that it is uniquely positioned to play a lead role in addressing the remaining UAS airspace integration (AI) challenges. To fully understand the magnitude and scope of these challenges, NASA ARMD initiated a study in 2015 to identify what would be needed to enable full integration of UAS for civil/commercial operations within the NAS by 2025. The desired outcome was a comprehensive analysis framework that ARMD could use to develop a research portfolio focused on retiring the remaining gaps and challenges standing in the way of full UAS integration. This document is a comprehensive assessment of UAS integration research to date.

UAS in the NAS↗

A Summary and Analysis of NASA's Strategic Astrophysics Technology PCOS/COR Investments Since Program Inception

The NASA Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) Program was established in 2009 as a new technology maturation program to fill the gap in the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) range from 3 to 6. Since the inception of the program, 47 tasks have been awarded under the auspices of the NASA Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) Program in the areas of optics and detectors as well as lasers, electronics, and micro-thruster subsystems. In addition, 31 tasks have been awarded under the auspices of the NASA Cosmic Origins (COR) Program to develop optics, coatings, cooling subsystems, and detectors from the Far-IR to the Far-UV. We present the PCOS/COR portfolio distribution in terms of specific technology areas addressed and show an analysis of the rate and cost of TRL advancements. We present highlights of the infusion success stories that have emerged from the SAT maturation program as it relates to enabling future NASA astrophysics strategic missions. Finally, we present an outlook for future technology priorities for investment by the SAT Program.

COR↗

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis

This project provides the Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) with strategic decision-support for the evaluation of its R&D portfolio by developing, validating, and applying a coherent methodology and consistent model framework to quantify the net effects of an expanding US bioeconomy. The framework fills an analysis gap previously identified by Peer Review and supports a related milestone in BETO's Multi-Year Program Plan. The framework was scoped with inputs from practitioners in academia, national laboratories, and federal agencies. The model is a top-down, economy-wide framework using a coherent methodology to compute environmental and socio-economic metrics. It is purposefully complementary to existing bottom-up, process-based techno-economic and life cycle assessment BETO tools and uses their data as inputs. Presently, the model covers several commercial and near-commercial biofuel routes and an emerging pathway for plastics upcycling. It covers temporal detail across four time-steps and is currently being expanded with a prospective modeling capability. The model has provided analyses for the Third Triennial Report to Congress (RtC3) on the environmental impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), among others. As part of this project, NREL also provides scientific support to BETO in the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy (IEA Bioenergy) Task 45 on Sustainability. Here, NREL evaluates and synthesizes activities that develop, compare, or apply metrics, methods, and tools to quantify sustainability effects of bioeconomy products. NREL also coordinates related national lab involvement and a BETO Working Group on Sustainable Land Management.

bioeconomy↗

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗

Augmenting Space Technology Program Management with Secure Cloud & Mobile Services

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Game Changing Development (GCD) program manages technology projects across all NASA centers and reports to NASA headquarters regularly on progress. Program stakeholders expect an up-to-date, accurate status and often have questions about the program's portfolio that requires a timely response. Historically, reporting, data collection, and analysis were done with manual processes that were inefficient and prone to error. To address these issues, GCD set out to develop a new business automation solution. In doing this, the program wanted to leverage the latest information technology platforms and decided to utilize traditional systems along with new cloud-based web services and gaming technology for a novel and interactive user environment. The team also set out to develop a mobile solution for anytime information access. This paper discusses a solution to these challenging goals and how the GCD team succeeded in developing and deploying such a system. The architecture and approach taken has proven to be effective and robust and can serve as a model for others looking to develop secure interactive mobile business solutions for government or enterprise business automation.

Hodson, Robert F.↗

Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

decision support↗

Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancements of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project

This report documents work done by the Aerospace Systems Design Lab (ASDL) at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Integrated System Research Program, Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. This report was prepared under contract NNL12AA12C, "Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancement of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project". The research within this report addressed the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goal stated in the NRA solicitation "to advance vehicle concepts and technologies that can simultaneously reduce fuel burn, noise, and emissions." To identify technology and vehicle solutions that simultaneously meet these three metrics requires the use of system-level analysis with the appropriate level of fidelity to quantify feasibility, benefits and degradations, and associated risk. In order to perform the system level analysis, the Environmental Design Space (EDS) [Kirby 2008, Schutte 2012a] environment developed by ASDL was used to model both conventional and unconventional configurations as well as to assess technologies from the ERA and N+2 timeframe portfolios. A well-established system design approach was used to perform aircraft conceptual design studies, including technology trade studies to identify technology portfolios capable of accomplishing the ERA project goal and to obtain accurate tradeoffs between performance, noise, and emissions. The ERA goal, shown in Figure 1, is to simultaneously achieve the N+2 benefits of a cumulative noise margin of 42 EPNdB relative to stage 4, a 75 percent reduction in LTO NOx emissions relative to CAEP 6 and a 50 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to the 2005 best in class aircraft. There were 5 research task associated with this research: 1) identify technology collectors, 2) model technology collectors in EDS, 3) model and assess ERA technologies, 4) LTO and cruise emission prediction, and 5) probabilistic analysis of technology collectors and portfolios.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

A Primer on Using Analysis to Guide Plastic Circularity

BOTTLE, funded by DOE's Advanced Materials & Manufacturing Technologies Office and Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), conducts analysis-guided R&D to change the way we recycle plastics. But what does analysis really mean? In this webinar, BOTTLE Analysis Co-Lead Dr. Taylor Uekert, a researcher with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), will introduce key analysis techniques such as techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and environmental justice evaluation. Relevant to both analysts and non-analysts, Dr. Uekert will cover the basics of analysis techniques and discuss how these methods are conducted and interpreted. She will provide examples from the BOTTLE portfolio demonstrating their use in benchmarking and optimizing the costs and environmental impacts of new innovations in plastic redesign and recycling. If you are working in the plastics recycling field - from experimental work to analysis to community-focused projects - you won't want to miss this talk. The webinar will end with a Q&A session.

analysis↗

Evaluation of radioisotope electric propulsion for selected interplanetary science missions

This study assessed the benefits and applicability of REP to missions relevant to the In-Space Propulsion Program (ISPP) using first and second generation RPS with specific powers of 4 We/kg and 8 We/kg, respectively. Three missions representing small body targets, medium outer planet class, and main belt asteroids and comets were evaluated. Those missions were a Trojan Asteroid Orbiter, Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR), and Jupiter Polar Orbiter with Probes (JPOP). For each mission, REP cost and performance was compared with solar electric propulsion system (SEPS) and SOA chemical propulsion system (SCPS) cost and performance. The outcome of the analysis would be a determinant for potential inclusion in the ISPP investment portfolio.

trojan asteroid↗

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 11, No. 1

Topics covered include: Analysis of System-wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example; Regional Air Transport in Europe: The Potential Role of the Civil Tiltrotor in Reducing Airside Congestion; The Development of Jomo Kenyatta International Airport as a Regional Aviation Hub; Corporate Social Responsibility in Aviation; The Competitive Effects of Airline Mergers and Acquisitions: More Capital Market Evidence; and The Competitive Position of Hub Airports in the Transatlantic Market.

Bowen, Brent↗

Overview of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate Small Satellites Programs and Advances in Transformative Science Measurements with Small Satellites

Small satellites have become an accepted platform for enabling high-quality science measurements and observations. NASA missions have leveraged advances in sensor miniaturization, technology innovations, and new small satellite mission architectures to support high spatial and temporal measurements, continuity measurements, and constellations in response to science objectives described in NASA’s Decadal Surveys. Across six divisions of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), over 12 years, SMD has funded 88 CubeSat/ SmallSat Missions and 59 Studies to date. Currently, SMD has 53 small spacecraft science missions (87spacecraft) in implementation or formulation. This paper provides the background of efforts to promote the implementation of small satellites within NASA as a balanced portfolio for the agency’s science, technology, and exploration goals. We include analysis of SmallSat awards and trends funded by SMD through Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES), Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx), and Small Explorer (SMEX) and Medium Explorer (MIDEX) calls over the last 12years. The data source of this assessment is a subset of the NASA SmallSat Coordination Group Database, a collection of all known funded NASA SmallSat and CubeSat missions and studies. This paper also provides an overview of small satellite programs and selected missions from SMD’s divisions: Astrophysics, Heliophysics, Earth Science, and Planetary Science, and describes SMD’s efforts in fostering an incremental and continuous path to achieve high-priority science through transformative science measurements. This paper recognizes the latest observations and trends of the NASA CubeSat / SmallSat Science missions with masses ranging between 1kg to 500kg.

Small Satellites, SMD SmallSat, CubeSat,↗

Advances in Transformative Science Measurements with Small Satellites

Small satellites have become an accepted platform for enabling high-quality science measurements and observations. NASA missions have leveraged advances in sensor miniaturization, technology innovations, and new small satellite mission architectures to support high spatial and temporal measurements, continuity measurements, and constellations in response to science objectives described in NASA’s Decadal Surveys. Across six divisions of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), over 12 years, SMD has funded 88 CubeSat/ SmallSat Missions and 59 Studies to date. Currently, SMD has 53 small spacecraft science missions (87spacecraft) in implementation or formulation. This paper provides the background of efforts to promote the implementation of small satellites within NASA as a balanced portfolio for the agency’s science, technology, and exploration goals. We include analysis of SmallSat awards and trends funded by SMD through Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES), Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx), and Small Explorer (SMEX) and Medium Explorer (MIDEX) calls over the last 12years. The data source of this assessment is a subset of the NASA SmallSat Coordination Group Database, a collection of all known funded NASA SmallSat and CubeSat missions and studies. This paper also provides an overview of small satellite programs and selected missions from SMD’s divisions: Astrophysics, Heliophysics, Earth Science, and Planetary Science, and describes SMD’s efforts in fostering an incremental and continuous path to achieve high-priority science through transformative science measurements. This presentation recognizes the latest observations and trends of the NASA CubeSat / SmallSat Science missions with masses ranging between 1kg to 500kg.

Small Satellites, SMD SmallSat, CubeSat↗

New Developments In NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling Project

This paper describes recent developments for modeling entry, descent, and landing (EDL)of spacecraft in support of NASA’s exploration missions. Mission-specific research and model development for entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within flight programs like Artemis/Orion and Mars Sample Return), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the research conducted by NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency’s only effort dedicated to advancing modeling capabilities that cross-cut multiple technical disciplines, missions and destinations. The ESM portfolio is developed to address the specific needs expressed by a cross-section of NASA stakeholders, including flight and research projects, technical leadership, and subject matter experts. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Thermal Protection System (TPS) material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. In addition to the core technical areas, special topics are rolled into the project portfolio as specific demands arise. Current special topics include TPS Certification by Analysis, improving understanding of woven TPS material performance; Hypersonic Wake Flows, assessing and improving predictions of base flows; and the MEDLI2 Deep Dive, furthering analysis of data obtained during Mars2020 mission’s entry and descent at Mars. Key results from each of these areas are presented in this paper, along with associated references to serve as a roadmap for other EDL researchers to access NASA’s publications.

Aaron M Brandis↗

FORCE Integration with DRAFT and IDAES

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to produce multiple commodities and improve economic viability under uncertain market conditions. Technical and economic analysis of IES requires modeling of complex processes with software models having enough fidelity to capture real-world dynamics while still being capable of running using reasonable computing resources. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Recent developments for the FORCE toolset have centered on strengthening the flexibility and modularity to link with external models and other available software to enhance IES simulations. Adding versatility to the FORCE toolset improves capability resulting in better techno-economic simulation of nuclear and IES components (both in potential higher fidelity and accuracy to expected performance after deployment). It also helps leverage existing work in the IES field and improve efficiency in national code development. This report focuses on two such endeavors: integration of the Dynamic Reliability Analysis Framework Tool (DRAFT) and the Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) software packages into FORCE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Applications of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Systems for Deep Space Science Missions

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) systems occupy a unique area in the space propulsion technology landscape due to their ability to combine moderate-to-high thrust systems normally seen in chemical propulsion systems with specific impulses that are closer to those observed in some electric propulsion systems. Consequently, NTP systems have the potential to greatly expand access to deep space and can enable a variety of missions that achieve the science goals outlined in NASA’s decadal surveys. This paper leverages previous analysis performed to show the applicability of NTP systems for notional science missions, expanding the analyzed portfolio to encompass additional science mission profiles and demonstrating how the use of NTP affects various mission parameters, such as trip time and delivered mass. This paper also outlines efforts to improve the fidelity of the existing NTP design concepts and vehicles that are utilized by leveraging previous work on nuclear propulsion systems for human-Mars missions. The fidelity of the analysis in this work is improved over previous studies, permitting commensurate improvements in the analyses of previous mission concept studies –the Triton lander, the solar polar orbiter, and the interstellar medium probe missions.

Nuclear thermal propulsion↗