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NASA NTRS1993

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Smith, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Beta-Adrenergic Receptor Population is Up-Regulated in Chicken Skeletal Muscle Cells Treated with Forskolin

Skeletal muscle hypertrophy is promoted by in vivo administration of beta-adrenergic receptor (betaAR) agonists. These compounds presumably exert their physiological action through the betaAR, and alterations in the population of betaAR could potentially change the ability of the cell to respond to the betaAR agonists. Since the intracellular chemical signal generated by the betaAR is cyclic AMP (cAMP), experiments were initiated in primary chicken muscle cell cultures to determine if artificial elevation of intracellular cAMP by treatment with forskolin would alter the population of functional betaAR expressed on the surface of muscle cells. Chicken skeletal muscle cells after 7 days in culture were employed for the experiments because muscle cells have attained a steady state with respect to muscle protein metabolism at this stage. Cells were treated with 0-10 microM forskolin for a total of three days. At the end of the 1, 2, and 3 day treatment intervals, the concentration of cAMP and the betaAR population were measured. Receptor population was measured in intact muscle cell cultures as the difference between total binding of [H-3]CGP-12177 and non-specific binding of [H-3]CGP-12177 in the presence of 1 microM propranolol. Intracellular cAMP concentration was measured by radioimmunoassay. The concentration of cAMP in forskolin-treated cells increased up to 10-fold in a dose dependent manner. Increasing concentrations of forskolin also led to an increase in betaAR population, with a maximum increase of approximately 50% at 10 microM. This increase in PAR population was apparent after only 1 day of treatment, and the pattern of increase was maintained for all 3 days of the treatment period. Thus, increasing the intracellular concentration of cAMP leads to up-regulation of betaAR population. The effect of forskolin on the quantity and apparent synthesis rate of the heavy chain of myosin (mhc) were also investigated. A maximum increase of 50% in the quantity of mhc was observed at 0.2 microM forskolin, but higher concentrations of forskolin reduced the quantity of mhc back to control levels.

Bridge, K. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Environmental Conditions and Threatened and Endangered Species Populations near the Titain, Atlas, and Delta Launch Complexes, Cape Canaveral Air Station

Launches of Delta, Atlas, and Titan rockets from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) have potential environmental effects. These could occur from direct impacts of launches or indirectly from habitat alterations. This report summarizes a three-year study (1995-1998) characterizing the environment, with particular attention to threatened and endangered species, near Delta, Atlas, and Titan launch facilities. Cape Canaveral has been modified by Air Force development and by 50 years of fire suppression. The dominant vegetation type around the Delta and Atlas launch complexes is coastal oak hammock forest. Oak scrub is the predominant upland vegetation type near the Titan launch complexes. Compositionally, these are coastal scrub communities that has been unburned for greater than 40 years and have developed into closed canopy, low-stature forests. Herbaceous vegetation around active and inactive facilities, coastal strand and dune vegetation near the Atlantic Ocean, and exotic vegetation in disturbed areas are common. Marsh and estuarine vegetation is most common west of the Titan complexes. Launch effects to vegetation include scorch, acid, and particulate deposition. Discernable, cumulative effects are limited to small areas near the launch complexes. Water quality samples were collected at the Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes in September 1995 (wet season) and January 1996 (dry season). Samples were analyzed for heavy metals, chloride, total organic carbon, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, total alkalinity, pH, and conductivity. Differences between fresh, brackish, and saline surface waters were evident. The natural buffering capacity of the environment surrounding the CCAS launch complexes is adequate for neutralizing acid deposition in rainfall and launch deposition. Populations of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a Federally- listed, threatened species, reside near the launch complexes. Thirty-seven to forty-one scrub-jay territories were located at Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes between 1995 and 1997. No direct impacts to scrub-jays were observed as a result of normal launches. The explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997 caused direct impacts to the habitat of several scrub-jays families, from fire and debris; however, no scrub-jay mortality was observed. Mortality exceeded reproductive output at all areas over the course of the study. Populations of the southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) populations, a Federally listed, threatened species, reside near all the launch complexes. Hurricane Erin and several other tropical storms impacted several areas at the inception of the study in 1995 causing coastal habitat alterations as a result of salt-water intrusion. Both the habitat and the beach mice populations recovered during the course of the study. No direct impacts to southeastern beach mice were observed as a result of normal launch operations. Direct impacts were observed to the habitat as a result of the explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997. This alteration of the habitant resulted in a shift in use with the mice moving on to the newly burned part of the site. Waterbirds use wetlands and aquatic systems near the launch complexes. Species include the Federally-listed, endangered Wood Stork (Mycteria americana) and several state-listed species of special concern including the Snowy Egret (Egretta thula thula), Reddish Egret (Egretta rufescens rufescens), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Roseate Spoonbill (Ajaia ajaja), Tricolored Heron (Egretta tricolor ruficolis), and Little Blue Heron (Egretta caerulea). No impacts to these populations resulting from any launch operations were observed. Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) also occur around the launch complexes. Most of those observed appeared to be in good condition; however, upper respiratory tract disease is known to occur in the population. Cape Canaveral Air Station, including areas near active launch complexes, remains important habitat for a variety of native plants and animals including threatened and endangered species. Direct negative effects of current launch systems appear limited. Additional monitoring of these populations and habitats is required to determine if subtle, long-term changes are occurring, to determine if new launch systems and facilities cause other effects, and to determine the effects of habitat restoration and management.

Oddy, Donna M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Selected Populations of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic

Polar bears are dependent on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in coverage and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. In four populations of polar bears in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay), Inuit hunters report more bears near settlements during the open water period in recent years. These observations have been interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, resulting in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, and population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are declining, not increasing. While the details vary in different arctic regions, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery, beginning in the late 1970s, indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears in coastal communities is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources because their stored body fat depots are being exhausted. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the IPCC, then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be stressed and are likely to decline in numbers, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, there will likely also be continuing, possibly increasing, numbers of problem interactions between bears and humans as the bears seek alternate food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Xu, Y. -l↗

NASA NTRS2006

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗

NASA NTRS1999

Environmental Conditions and Threatened and Endangered Species Populations near the Titan, Atlas, and Delta Launch Complexes, Cape Canaveral Air Station

Launches of Delta, Atlas, and Titan rockets from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) have potential environmental effects. These could occur from direct impacts of launches or indirectly from habitat alterations. This report summarizes a three-year study (1 995-1 998) characterizing the environment, with particular attention to threatened and endangered species, near Delta, Atlas, and Titan launch facilities. Cape Canaveral has been modified by Air Force development and by 50 years of fire suppression. The dominant vegetation type around the Delta and Atlas launch complexes is coastal oak hammock forest. Oak scrub is the predominant upland vegetation type near the Titan launch complexes. Compositionally, these are coastal scrub communities that has been unburned for > 40 years and have developed into closed canopy, low-stature forests. Herbaceous vegetation around active and inactive facilities, coastal strand and dune vegetation near the Atlantic Ocean, and exotic vegetation in disturbed areas are common. Marsh and estuarine vegetation is most common west of the Titan complexes. Launch effects to vegetation include scorch, acid, and particulate deposition. Discernable, cumulative effects are limited to small areas near the launch complexes. Water quality samples were collected at the Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes in September 1995 (wet season) and January 1996 (dry season). Samples were analyzed for heavy metals, chloride, total organic carbon, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, total alkalinity, pH, and conductivity. Differences between fresh, brackish, and saline surface waters were evident. The natural buffering capacity of the environment surrounding the CCAS launch complexes is adequate for neutralizing acid deposition in rainfall and launch deposition. Populations of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a Federally-listed, threatened species, reside near the launch complexes. Thirty-seven to forty-one scrub-jay territories were located at Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes between 1995 and 1997. No direct impacts to scrub-jays were observed as a result of normal launches. The explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997 caused direct impacts to the habitat of several scrub-jays families, from fire and debris; however, no scrub-jay mortality was observed. Mortality exceeded reproductive output at all areas over the course of the study. Populations of the southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) populations, a Federally listed, threatened species, reside near all the launch complexes. Hurricane Erin and several other tropical storms impacted several areas at the inception of the study in 1995 causing coastal habitat alterations as a result of salt-water intrusion. Both the habitat and the beach mice populations recovered during the course of the study. No direct impacts to southeastern beach mice were observed as a result of normal launch operations. Direct impacts were observed to the habitat as a result of the explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997. This alteration of the habitat resulted in a shift in use with the mice moving on to the newly burned part of the site. Waterbirds use wetlands and aquatic systems near the launch complexes. Species include the Federally-listed, endangered Wood Stork (Mycferia americana) and several state-listed species of special concern including the Snowy Egret (Egretfa thula fhula), Reddish Egret (Egreffa rufescens rufescens), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Roseate Spoonbill (Ajaia ajaja), Tricolored Heron (Egreffa tricolor ruficolis), and Little Blue Heron (Egreffa caerulea). No impacts to these populations resulting from any launch operations were observed. Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) also occur around the launch complexes. Most of those observed appeared to be in good condition; however, upper respiratory tract disease is known to occur in the population. Cape Canaveral Air Station, including areas near active launch colexes, remains important habitat for a variety of native plants and animals including threatened and endangered species. Direct negative effects of current launch systems appear limited. Additional monitoring of these populations and habitats is required to determine if subtle, long-term changes are occurring, to determine if new launch systems and facilities cause other effects, and to determine the effects of habitat restoration and management.

Oddy, Donna M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Oblique Instability of Quasi-Parallel Whistler Waves in the Presence of Cold and Warm Electron Populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

Vadim Roytershteyn↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving the LandScan USA Non-Obligate Population Estimate (NOPE)

Where do people go when they have nowhere to be? Nonobligate activities are a significant part of our social and cultural lives, but there are no existing large scale data which characterize spatial variability in population allocation for these activities. As large scale population estimates have ever-finer resolutions, gaps in our ability to estimate this population segment have an increasingly large impact on high resolution population estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate an improved method for estimating the spatial allocation of the non-obligate population - people who are not at work, school, or in another residential institution. This method builds upon on anonymized and aggregate data on visits to public places, allocating the non-obligate population proportionally to worker population while accounting for the estimated ratio of visitors to workers in public places.

Brelsford, Christa↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Application of a Genomic Network Analysis in Population Ecology: Inferring Patterns of Dispersal and Geographic Structure in the Emerging Pathogen, Coccidioides

A challenge in population ecology studies is identifying how to best group individuals into populations, especially when individual origin is unknown. Machine learning has improved upon traditional methods of identifying population structure and is more efficient at handling large, complex datasets. We demonstrate the applicability of a machine learning method to identify hierarchical population structure in an emerging pathogen, Coccidioides spp., the causative agent of Valley fever. We compared the network clusters to structure identified by traditional tools as a validation of the network performance. We used publicly available whole-genome data for 48 C. immitis and 102 C. posadasii, resulting in 168,211 genome-wide SNPs among the two species. The network analysis grouped samples into populations comparable to the literature for these species but also identified fine-scale geographic structure and travel-associated cases not reported thus far. Exploring different resolutions in the network made it easy to identify unique genotypes specific to California and possibly Nevada, as well as Phoenix- and Tucson-acquired infections in non-endemic areas, regardless of reported travel history. The present study provides a promising example of how a ML-based network analysis can improve our ability to understand pathogen ecology, group cases into populations and infer travel-associated infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing high-resolution genetic markers to track population-level exposure of migratory birds to renewable energy development

With new motivation to increase the proportion of energy demands met by zero-carbon sources, there is a greater focus on efforts to assess and mitigate the impacts of renewable energy development on sensitive ecosystems and wildlife, of which birds are of particular interest. One challenge for researchers, due in part to a lack of appropriate tools, has been estimating the effects from such development on individual breeding populations of migratory birds. To help address this, we utilize a newly developed, high-resolution genetic tagging method to rapidly identify the breeding population of origin of carcasses recovered from renewable energy facilities and combine them with maps of genetic variation across geographic space (called ‘genoscapes’) for five species of migratory birds known to be exposed to energy development, to assess the extent of population-level effects on migratory birds. We demonstrate that most avian remains collected were from the largest populations of a given species. In contrast, those remains from smaller, declining populations made up a smaller percentage of the total number of birds assayed. Results suggest that application of this genetic tagging method can successfully define population-level exposure to renewable energy development and may be a powerful tool to inform future siting and mitigation activities associated with renewable energy programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Population Genetics of Sugar Kelp Throughout the Northeastern United States Using Genome-Wide Markers

An assessment of genetic diversity of marine populations is critical not only for the understanding and preserving natural biodiversity but also for its commercial potential. As commercial demand rises for marine resources, it is critical to generate baseline information for monitoring wild populations. Furthermore, anthropogenic stressors on the coastal environment, such as warming sea temperatures and overharvesting of wild populations, are leading to the destruction of keystone marine species such as kelps. In this study, we conducted a fine-scale genetic analysis using genome-wide high-density markers on Northwest Atlantic sugar kelp. The population structure for a total of 149 samples from the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Southern New England (SNE) was investigated using AMOVA, FST, admixture, and PCoA. Genome-wide association analyses were conducted for six morphological traits, and the extended Lewontin and Krakauer (FLK) test was used to detect selection signatures. Our results indicate that the GOM region is more heterogeneous than SNE. These two regions have large genetic difference (between-location FST ranged from 0.21 to 0.32) and were separated by Cape Cod, which is known to be the biogeographic barrier for other taxa. We detected one significant SNP (P = 2.03 × 10 -7 ) associated with stipe length, and 248 SNPs with higher-than-neutral differentiation. The findings of this study provide baseline knowledge on sugar kelp population genetics for future monitoring, managing and potentially restoring wild populations, as well as assisting in selective breeding to improve desirable traits for future commercialization opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dissecting the dominant hot spring microbial populations based on community-wide sampling at single-cell genomic resolution

With advances in DNA sequencing and miniaturized molecular biology workflows, rapid and affordable sequencing of single-cell genomes has become a reality. Compared to 16S rRNA gene surveys and shotgun metagenomics, large-scale application of single-cell genomics to whole microbial communities provides an integrated snapshot of community composition and function, directly links mobile elements to their hosts, and enables analysis of population heterogeneity of the dominant community members. To that end, we sequenced nearly 500 single-cell genomes from a low diversity hot spring sediment sample from Dewar Creek, British Columbia, and compared this approach to 16S rRNA gene amplicon and shotgun metagenomics applied to the same sample. We found that the broad taxonomic profiles were similar across the three sequencing approaches, though several lineages were missing from the 16S rRNA gene amplicon dataset, likely the result of primer mismatches. At the functional level, we detected a large array of mobile genetic elements present in the single-cell genomes but absent from the corresponding same species metagenome-assembled genomes. Moreover, we performed a single-cell population genomic analysis of the three most abundant community members, revealing differences in population structure based on mutation and recombination profiles. While the average pairwise nucleotide identities were similar across the dominant species-level lineages, we observed differences in the extent of recombination between these dominant populations. Most intriguingly, the creek's Hydrogenobacter sp. population appeared to be so recombinogenic that it more closely resembled a sexual species than a clonally evolving microbe. Together, this work demonstrates that a randomized single-cell approach can be useful for the exploration of previously uncultivated microbes from community composition to population structure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century

Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to extreme weather over the coming decades. Here we examine how changes in urban land extent, population, and climate will respectively and collectively affect spatial patterns of future population exposures to climate extremes (including hot days, cold days, heavy rainfalls, and severe thunderstorm environments) across the continental U.S. at the end of the 21st century. Different from common impressions, we find that urban land patterns can sometimes reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, and that spatial patterns instead of total quantities of urban land are more influential to population exposures. Our findings lead to preliminary suggestions for embedding long-term climate resilience in urban and regional land-use system designs, and strongly motivate searches for optimal spatial urban land patterns that can robustly moderate population exposures to climate extremes throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the mixing between two black hole populations in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GWTC-3

Here, we introduce a population model to analyze the mixing between hypothesised power-law and ~ 35M ⊙ Gaussian bump black hole populations in the latest gravitational wave catalog, GWTC 3, estimating their co-location and separation. We find a relatively low level of mixing, $3.1^{+5.0}_{-3.1}$%, between the power-law and Gaussian populations, compared to the percentage of mergers containing two Gaussian bump black holes, $5.0^{+3.2}_{-1.7}$%. Our analysis indicates that black holes within the Gaussian bump are generally separate from the power-law population, with only a minor fraction engaging in mixing and contributing to the $\mathcal{M}$ ~ 14M ⊙ peak in the chirp mass. This leads us to identify a distinct population of Binary Gaussian Black Holes (BGBHs) that arise from mergers within the Gaussian bump. We suggest that current theories for the formation of the massive 35M ⊙ Gaussian bump population may need to reevaluate the underlying mechanisms that drive the preference for BGBHs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗