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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Geostrophic to magnetically-damped turbulence in liquid metal rotating magnetoconvection

Understanding planetary core convection dynamics requires the study of convective flows in which the Coriolis and Lorentz forces attain a leading-order, so-called magnetostrophic balance. Experimental investigations of rotating magnetoconvection (RMC) in the magnetostrophic regime are therefore essential to broadly characterize the properties of local-scale planetary core flow. Toward this end, we present here the first thermovelocimetric measurements of magnetostrophic, liquid metal convection, which are made using liquid gallium as the working fluid, at moderate rotation rates (Ekman numbers 10 -4 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 -5 ) and in the presence of dynamically strong magnetic fields (Elsasser number Λ = 1). Complementary rotating convection (RC) experiments are performed at the same rotation rates to serve as reference cases. Our RMC velocity measurements adequately follow a geostrophic turbulent scaling for cases in which local-scale convective inertial forces exceed the Lorentz forces in the fluid bulk. In cases where Lorentz forces exceed local-scale inertia (local or convective interaction parameter N ℓ or N C ≳ 3), the root-mean-square RMC velocities are magnetically damped, yielding values below the geostrophic turbulent RC scaling prediction. An enhancement in heat transfer is observed, which we attribute to the increased coherence of vertically aligned magnetostrophic convective flow. Finally, our results and comparisons to dynamo simulations suggest that the system is in the strong-field regime, where convection-scale flows are magnetically damped with N C ≳ 3).

Convective turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Mass Growth Processes to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons through Radical–Radical Reactions Exploiting Photoionization Reflectron Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) represent critical building blocks in molecular mass growth processes to carbonaceous nanoparticles, referred to as interstellar and circumstellar grains along with soot particles in astrophysical environments and combustion systems, respectively. Recent advancements on elucidating elementary steps to PAHs have utilized reactions of aromatic radicals, resonantly stabilized free radicals, and aliphatic radicals with closed shell hydrocarbons. However, the role of radical–radical reactions (RRRs) leading to PAHs has remained largely unexplored on the molecular level due to preceding experimental challenges in producing sufficiently high number densities of radical reactants for isomer-selective detection of products from bimolecular and termolecular reactions. This Account offers the latest developments in our knowledge on the mechanisms and pathways to PAHs via RRRs probed in a chemical microreactor at temperatures as high as 1600 K. Product preservation in a molecular beam coupled with synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization reflectron time-of-flight mass spectrometry and photoelectron photoion coincidence spectroscopy enabled isomer-selective detection of PAHs of up to three rings by their photoionization efficiency curves, which were fit with a linear combination of reference curves for identification. Experiments were combined with computational fluid dynamics modeling of the physicochemical processes in the microreactor, as well as high-level electronic structure calculations to reveal the reaction pathways of each system. Six distinct reaction mechanisms were discovered in this work: propargyl addition─benzannulation (PABA), methyl addition─ring expansion (MARE), cyclopentadienyl addition─naphthylization (CPAN), fulvenallenyl addition─cyclization─aromatization (FACA), benzyl addition─aromatization (BAA), and phenyl addition─pentacyclization (PAP). By systematically varying the number of carbon atoms in the radical reactants, molecular mass growth processes involving reactions between radicals with odd numbers of carbon atoms access aromatics carrying one, two, or three six-membered rings, whereas reactions between even- and odd-carbon-numbered radicals produce aromatics combining five- and six-membered rings. Our investigations reveal unconventional cycloadditions on excited state triplet surfaces, additions of radicals to low spin density carbon-centered radicals, spiroaromatic and fulvene-type intermediates, and highly strained bicyclic reaction intermediates, challenging current perceptions of PAH molecular mass growth processes. All of the listed mechanisms, except for FACA, feature endoergic reactions or barriers which lie above the separated reactants and therefore might be central to circumstellar environments of carbon-rich stars and planetary nebulae as their descendants, but they play no role in the gas phase of cold molecular clouds where temperatures as low as 10 K dominate. Altogether, this work provides detailed reaction mechanisms of PAH growth processes, advancing our knowledge of the chemistry of carbonaceous matter in the universe.

Addition reactions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling electronic correlations in warm dense quantum plasmas

The study of matter at extreme densities and temperatures has emerged as a highly active frontier at the interface of plasma physics, material science and quantum chemistry with relevance for planetary modeling and inertial confinement fusion. A particular feature of such warm dense matter is the complex interplay of Coulomb interactions, quantum effects, and thermal excitations, making its rigorous theoretical description challenging. Here, we demonstrate how ab initio path integral Monte Carlo simulations allow us to unravel this intricate interplay for the example of strongly compressed beryllium, focusing on two X-ray Thomson scattering data sets obtained at the National Ignition Facility. We find excellent agreement between simulation and experiment with a very high level of consistency between independent observations without the need for any empirical input parameters. Our results call into question previously used chemical models, with important implications for the interpretation of scattering experiments and radiation hydrodynamics simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved method for temporally interpolating radiosonde profiles in the convective boundary layer

A significantly improved technique for temporally interpolating radiosonde (RS) profiles of potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio in the planetary boundary layer during daytime is introduced. The key innovation of this technique is its operation on a height grid normalized with the planetary boundary layer height. This study utilized a three-month dataset of three-hourly soundings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility's Southern Great Plains site. The technique was evaluated for convective boundary layer cases, with the necessary boundary layer height data obtained from a ground-based infrared spectrometer. A total of 79 comparisons were conducted between reference soundings and interpolated profiles that did and did not employ height normalization. The results demonstrated a substantial improvement in the representation of interpolated profiles using the new technique, characterized by enhanced correlation, improved amplitude representation, and reduced bias for potential temperature, as well as improved correlation and reduced bias for water vapor mixing ratio.

convective boundary layer↗
DOE OSTI2025

WHYMSIE-SGP Field Campaign Report

Through a partnership between the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this field campaign demonstrated first-of-its-kind hyperspectral microwave airborne measurements (Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer [CoSMIR-H]). It was complemented by other passive (infrared, visible) and active (lidar) sensors onboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Serving as a future NASA planetary boundary-layer (PBL) mission prototype, the Westcoast and Heartland Hyperspectral Microwave Intensive Experiment (WH 2 yMSIE, formerly WHyMSIE) aimed to capture a wide variety of thermodynamic, moisture, and PBL regimes across a variety of surface types. The intensive operating period of the campaign spanned from October 22, 2024, through November 15, 2024, and included a large network of collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction

Abstract The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified Swin Transformer V2 (SwinV2) on ERA5 data and find that it attains superior skill in terms of mean-square errors of deterministic forecasts when compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Almost all DL–NWP systems share a core set of hyperparameters and design decisions. To aid and expedite future DL–NWP research, we present an in-depth, systematic exploration of different loss functions, model sizes and depths, patch sizes, and multistep training objectives. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical accuracy (ACC) and RMSE and investigate how the performance scales with model size. Through our open-source code, scoring pipelines, and models, we share our findings on key aspects of the training pipeline. These ablations reduce the necessity for expensive hyperparameter tuning and lower the barrier to entry for future DL–NWP research. Significance Statement This study investigates the potential of using large-scale transformer-based models for weather prediction, showing that it is possible to achieve high forecast accuracy with simpler, off-the-shelf architectures. By training a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, we show that the model achieves competitive forecast skill in terms of mean-square error for key variables, outperforming the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at all lead times. Our findings suggest that effective training strategies, such as multistep fine-tuning and channel-weighted losses, significantly enhance the model’s performance. However, we also highlight that these improvements come with trade-offs in other areas, such as ensemble spread and high-frequency spatial detail. This work highlights the promise of deep learning in improving weather forecasts, which could lead to better preparedness and response to weather events, ultimately benefiting society by providing more reliable weather predictions.

Willard, Jared D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Freeze-induced crystallization: An overlooked pathway for mineral genesis in natural waters

Natural ice plays salient roles in making the Earth habitable and sustainable. Previously overlooked, its role in chemical processes is now of emerging interest, particularly due to the freeze concentration effect, which can substantially promote chemical reactions during ice formation. We demonstrate here that ice formation can serve as a dynamic and unique pathway for mineral genesis. Freezing solutions containing dissolved manganese and carbonates produced rhodochrosite (Mn II CO 3 ) even under slightly undersaturated conditions. At room temperature, by contrast, this occurred when the solution saturation level was increased by ca. 30,000 times. The cryogenic rhodochrosite formed spherical aggregates of nano-polycrystallites, distinctly different from the cubic monocrystalline particles observed at room temperature. The distinct feature likely resulted from the combined effects of the intensified supersaturation induced by the freeze concentration effect and the low temperatures within liquid-like layers, conditions that make liquid-like layers an exceptional environment for mineral genesis, unlike typical natural water systems. The cryogenic rhodochrosite formation was successfully demonstrated using in situ, real-time X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), enabling direct observation of freeze-induced solid formation. In conclusion, our findings reveal that freeze-induced crystallization may be an active mineralization pathway, potentially influencing elemental cycles within the cryosphere and contributing to minerals with distinguishing properties and reactivities in the environment.

Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating internal and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate the modes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) variability using perturbation experiments with the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model and compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic modes of variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal ( DMD var ) and centennial ( CEN var ). The former is driven largely by temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, while the latter is driven by salinity in the western subpolar North Atlantic. The amplitude of each mode scales linearly with the mean AMOC strength in the IPSL experiments. The DMD var amplitude correlates well with the AMOC mean strength across CMIP6 models, while the CEN var mode does not. These findings suggest that the strength of DMD var depends robustly on the North Atlantic mean state, while the CEN var mode may be model‐dependent.

Ferster, Brady S. [LOCEAN‐IPSL Sorbonne Université↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model – Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R dark ). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Radiogenic Noble Gas Nuclides to Identify and Characterize Rock Fracturing

Abstract Fracture‐released radiogenic noble gas nuclides are used to identify locations and constrain the volume of new fracture creation during subsurface detonations. Real‐time, in situ noble gases and reactive gases were monitored using a field‐deployed mass spectrometer and automated sampling system in a multilevel borehole array. Released gases were measured after two different detonations having distinct energy, pressure, and gas volume characteristics. Explosive‐derived gases (N 2 O, CO 2 ) and excess radiogenic 4 He and 40 Ar above atmospheric background are used to identify locations of gas transport and new fracture creation after each detonation. Fracture‐released radiogenic 4 He is used to constrain the volume of newly created fractures with a model of helium release from fracturing. Explosive by‐product gas was observed in multiple locations both near and distal to the shot locations for both detonations. Radiogenic 4 He and 40 Ar release from rock damage was observed in locations near the detonation after the second, more powerful detonation. Observed 4 He response is consistent with a model of diffusive release from newly created fractures. Volume of new fractures estimated from the 4 He release ranges from 1 to 5 m 2 with apertures ranging from 0.1 to 1 m. Our results provide evidence that radiogenic noble gases released during fracture creation can be identified at the field scale in real time and used to identify timing and location of fracture creation during deformation events. This technique could be useful in subsurface science and engineering problems where the location and amount of newly created rock fracturing is of interest including fault rupture, mine safety, subsurface detonation monitoring and reservoir stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dust Direct Radiative Effect Including Large Particles and Component Minerals

The direct radiative effect (DRE) of dust aerosols in Earth system models (ESMs) remains highly uncertain, largely due to inadequate representations of particle size distribution (PSD) and mineral composition. Using NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) soil mineralogy data and observed PSD in an ESM that resolves dust mineral composition and emitted diameters from 0.1 to 70 μm, we find a near-neutral global dust net DRE (−0.057 W m −2 ), weaker than most previous estimates. Large dust (diameter >10 μm) contributes 30% of the global longwave dust optical depth, providing observational constraints on large-particle abundance, and offsets 20% of the dust shortwave cooling over major source regions. Incorporation of EMIT mineralogy reduces shortwave uncertainty by more than 50%. The remaining uncertainty mainly exists in processes controlling dust abundance, particularly the poorly understood transport of large dust, and longwave optical properties, which require additional observational constraints to more accurately quantify the dust DRE.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Studying Aerosol, Clouds, and Air Quality in the Coastal Urban Environment of Southeastern Texas

A multi-agency succession of field campaigns was conducted in southeastern Texas during July 2021 through October 2022 to study the complex interactions of aerosols, clouds and air pollution in the coastal urban environment. As part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER), the TRACER- Air Quality (TAQ) campaign the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) and the Convective Cloud Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (CUBE), a combination of ground-based supersites and mobile laboratories, shipborne measurements and aircraft-based instrumentation were deployed. These diverse platforms collected high-resolution data to characterize the aerosol microphysics and chemistry, cloud and precipitation micro- and macro-physical properties, environmental thermodynamics and air quality-relevant constituents that are being used in follow-on analysis and modeling activities. We present the overall deployment setups, a summary of the campaign conditions and a sampling of early research results related to: (a) aerosol precursors in the urban environment, (b) influences of local meteorology on air pollution, (c) detailed observations of the sea breeze circulation, (d) retrieved supersaturation in convective updrafts, (e) characterizing the convective updraft lifecycle, (f) variability in lightning characteristics of convective storms and (g) urban influences on surface energy fluxes. The work concludes with discussion of future research activities highlighted by the TRACER model-intercomparison project to explore the representation of aerosol-convective interactions in high-resolution simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrodynamic expansion and near-infrared absorption of x-ray heated aluminum plasmas

We use x-ray pulses from dense argon plasmas at the Z Machine (Sandia National Laboratories) to generate hypersonic aluminum plasmas akin to material ejecta during proposed planetary defense missions, fusion reactor wall excursions, and other high-energy density processes. Near-infrared absorption is used to diagnose the controlled expansion of the plasmas through cylindrical cavities following their generation from x-ray heating of solid aluminum 7075 alloy. The data are compared to multidimensional radiation hydrodynamics simulations utilizing the ALEGRA multiphysics code, accounting for the dynamics of radiation scattering, material phase change, plasma expansion, thermal re-irradiation, and interactions with the cavity and with the infrared beams. To allow for accurate simulation, density functional theory is used to apply the Hagen–Rubens relation for the far-infrared and is adjoined with a detailed configuration accounting model using the Propaceos code, producing opacities spanning 10 −1 –10 4 eV photon energy for aluminum 7075 alloy, and in comparison with pure aluminum. The model is found to agree with experimental data in the higher-fluence regime when the Hagen–Rubens relation is applied. The ejected material, which is observed to travel up to 55 km/s, is comprised of a strongly ionized, non-LTE plasma front at ∼10 eV temperature followed by a weakly ionized LTE gas at higher density. The present findings lend some confidence to the broad-range equation of state and infrared opacity models for weakly ionized aluminum plasmas while demonstrating an approach to their future refinement, with potential application to astrophysical plasmas and other extreme processes.

Adiabatic process↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of the earliest NC and CC planetesimals: Evidence from ungrouped iron meteorites

Isotope anomalies in meteorites reveal a fundamental dichotomy between Non-Carbonaceous- (NC) and Carbonaceous-type (CC) planetary bodies. Until now, this dichotomy is established for the major meteorite groups, representing about 36 distinct parent bodies. Ungrouped meteorites represent an even larger number of additional parent bodies, but whether they conform to the overall NC-CC dichotomy is unknown. Here, the genetics and chronology of 26 ungrouped iron meteorites are considered through nucleosynthetic Mo and radiogenic W isotopic compositions. Secondary cosmic ray-induced modifications of these isotope compositions are corrected using Pt isotope measurements on the same samples. We find that all of the ungrouped irons have Mo isotope anomalies within the range of the major meteorite groups and confirm the NC-CC dichotomy for Mo, where NC and CC meteorites define two distinct, subparallel s-process mixing lines. All ungrouped NC irons fall on the NC-line, which is now precisely defined for 41 distinct parent bodies. The ungrouped CC irons show scatter around the CC-line indicative of small r-process Mo heterogeneities among these samples. These r-process Mo isotope variations correlate with O isotope anomalies, most likely reflecting mixing of CI chondrite-like matrix, chondrule precursors, and Ca-Al-rich inclusions. This implies that CC iron meteorite parent bodies accreted the same nebular components as the later-formed carbonaceous chondrites. The Hf-W model ages of core formation for the ungrouped irons overlap with those of the iron meteorite groups from each reservoir and reveal a narrow age peak at ∼3.3 Ma after Ca-Al-rich inclusions for the CC irons. By contrast, the NC irons display more variable ages, including younger ages indicative of impact-induced melting events, which seem absent among the CC irons. This is attributed to the more fragile and porous nature of the CC bodies, making impact-induced melting on their surfaces difficult. The chemical characteristics of all iron meteorites together reveal slightly more oxidizing conditions during core formation for CC compared to NC irons. More strikingly, strong depletions in moderately volatile elements, typical of many iron meteorite parent bodies, predominantly occur among CC irons, for reasons that remain unclear at present.

Chondrite components↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗