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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of fabric architectures on mechanical and damage behaviors in carbon/epoxy woven composites under multiaxial stress states

The mechanical properties and damage evolutions of carbon/epoxy woven fabric composites with three different fabric architectures, including one plain weave and two twill weave patterns, are experimentally investigated under multiaxial stress states. In particular, the effects of weave patterns are investigated by monotonic and cyclic off-axis tension tests. Both elastic modulus and strength degrade remarkably with increasing off-axis loading angle, while Poisson's ratio is much higher than that measured from on-axis tests and increases with loading strain gradually. Different fabric architectures show limited effects on the modulus and strength under multiaxial stress states, and they are well predicted by transformation equation and Tsai-Wu failure criteria, respectively. However, significantly different failure behaviors are observed in three fabric composites, and microstructure observation shows that fabric architecture affects the stress concentration and the damage development. Smaller crimp ratio and compacted structure postpone the damage development but result in more abrupt failure under multiaxial stress states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Abstract Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Steady detonation propagation in thin channels with strong confinement

We examine asymptotically the dynamics of two-dimensional, steady detonation wave propagation and failure for a strongly confined high explosive (HE), in which the width of the explosive is small relative to the reaction zone length. An energy balance equation is derived, which shows how the longitudinal acceleration of subsonic flow behind the detonation shock is influenced both by chemical reaction and by the effects of HE boundary streamline deflection, specifically via the induced rate of change of mass flux through the detonation wave. The latter serves to either counteract or reinforce the acceleration of longitudinal flow, depending on the sign of the gradient of the boundary streamline deflection at the detonation shock. The analysis is valid for general equations of state and chemical reaction rates in the HE. The asymptotically derived form of the energy equation represents an eigenvalue problem for the determination of the steady detonation propagation speed, solved via a shooting method. We explore specific results for ideal and stiffened equations of state, along with a pressure-dependent reaction rate for which changes in the pressure exponent and reaction order are also studied. We consider the influences of both straight and curved HE boundary streamline shapes. The asymptotic analysis reveals significant physical insights into how detonation propagation and failure are affected by strong confinement.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing the impacts of these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how water distribution system reliability to climate-driven heat will change, and the proactive maintenance strategies available to combat failures. To this end, we present the model Perses, a framework that joins a water distribution network hydraulic solver with reliability models of physical assets or components to estimate temperature increase-driven failures and resulting service outages in the long term. A theoretical case study is developed using Phoenix, Arizona temperature profiles, a city with extreme temperatures and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there are projected to be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% more PVC pipe failures, and 3%–7% more iron pipe failures (RCP 4.5–8.5) than a baseline historical temperature profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure for domestic and commercial use are projected to increase by 16%–26% above the baseline under maximum temperature conditions. The exceedance of baseline failures, when compounded across a large metro region, reveals potential challenges for budgeting, management, and maintenance. An exploration of the mitigation potential of adaptation strategies shows that expedited repair times are capable of offsetting the additional outages from climate change, but will come with a cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of carbon nanostructure mechanical properties and the role of defects using machine learning

Graphene-based nanostructures hold immense potential as strong and lightweight materials, however, their mechanical properties such as modulus and strength are difficult to fully exploit due to challenges in atomic-scale engineering. This study presents a database of over 2,000 pristine and defective nanoscale CNT bundles and other graphitic assemblies, inspired by microscopy, with associated stress–strain curves from reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using the reactive INTERFACE force field (IFF-R). These 3D structures, containing up to 80,000 atoms, enable detailed analyses of structure-stiffness-failure relationships. By leveraging the database and physics- and chemistry-informed machine learning (ML), accurate predictions of elastic moduli and tensile strength are demonstrated at speeds 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than efficient MD simulations. Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks with Spatial Information (HS-GNNs) are introduced, which integrate chemistry knowledge. HS-GNNs as well as extreme gradient boosted trees (XGBoost) achieve forecasts of mechanical properties of arbitrary carbon nanostructures with only 3 to 6% mean relative error. The reliability equals experimental accuracy and is up to 20 times higher than other ML methods. Predictions maintain 8 to 18% accuracy for large CNT bundles, CNT junctions, and carbon fiber cross-sections outside the training distribution. The physics- and chemistry-informed HS-GNN works remarkably well for data outside the training range while XGBoost works well with limited training data inside the training range. The carbon nanostructure database is designed for integration with multimodal experimental and simulation data, scalable beyond 100 nm size, and extendable to chemically similar compounds and broader property ranges. The ML approaches have potential for applications in structural materials, nanoelectronics, and carbon-based catalysts.

Winetrout, Jordan J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Tool for the Risk-Informed Management of Critical Mission Resilience

We describe a methodology and tool for the risk-informed management and planning of mission resilience. By mapping concepts of resilience onto the elements of a streamlined risk model we are able to tap the substantial portfolio of established risk concepts to provide rapid insights in the evaluation and high-level screening of prospective resilience enhancement measures. This provides a risk-informed, levelized basis for the comparison of disparate resilience solutions and the means of establishing preferences. The methodology begins with identification of critical missions met by a site, and establishment of the supporting physical assets. Scenarios that would result in failure of these assets are systematically identified. Each scenario comprises three elements: realization of a hazard or threat resulting in loss of resources (the current focus being on power, natural gas, and water) to the asset, failure of measures in place to protect the asset against those losses, and realization of the consequent impacts. These scenarios are quantified in terms of their probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of the resultant consequences (mission outage time), allowing risk-prioritization to focus resilience enhancement considerations. What-If? analyses are conducted through adjusting elements of the risk calculation to reflect the deployment of prospective resilience measures, by which means the efficacies of each of those measures can be compared using common risk metrics across diverse resilience strategies. This paper will also describe the insights from example applications.

resilience, risk, risk assesment, energy, water↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geometric and Material Variability Influences Stress States Relevant to Coastal Permafrost Bluff Failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well-explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical-mechanical coupling failure mechanism of composite cathode in all-solid-state batteries

Composite cathode composed of active particles and solid electrolytes (SEs) can considerably enlarge the particle-SE contact areas and achieve high areal loadings in all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs). However, the challenging interfacial instability and particle damage problems remain unsolved. Herein, we establish a 3D electrochemical-mechanical coupled model to investigate the underlying failure mechanism by considering the governing electrochemical and physics processes. Micro-scale heterogeneous primary particles with random crystallographic orientation and size inside the LiNi 1/3 Co 1/3 Mn 1/3 O 2 (NCM111) secondary particle of the model result in the anisotropic Li diffusion and volume variation within the secondary particle, leading to significant nonuniformity of the Li concentration, and GPa-level stress distributions at primary particle boundaries, and finally causing the particle internal cracks. The particle volume shrinkage under the constraint of stiff Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) SE triggers the interface debonding (gap>50 nm) with increased interfacial impedance to degrade cell capacity. Higher C-rates result in larger residual stress (~100 MPa)/strain/debonding gap at dis-charging end, more likely to deteriorate the cell performance. Increasing the interfacial strength between the particle and SE can suppress the interface debonding but induces high stress (up to 10 GPa). In conclusion, results reveal the underlying mechanism of the electrochemical-mechanical coupling failure mechanism for composite cathode and provide promising guidance on the further improvement of a more robust composite cathode for ASSBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultrasonic Characterization of Lithium Ion Thermal Runaway Conditions for Real-time Ultrasonic Enabled BMS Integration

The demand for energy storage is growing, and lithium-ion batteries are a promising technology to meet this need due to their high power/energy density, high round-trip efficiency, rapid response time, and portability. However, recent catastrophic events caused by thermal runaway have slowed their adoption, highlighting the need for an early warning system for battery failure. In this work, ultrasound is used to detect physical changes in 950 mAh batteries by identifying material property changes independent of voltage and current. [Ultrasound signal features (e.g., time of flight, maximum frequency component) were extracted as the batteries were cycled and subjected to both constant current and constant voltage overcharge and were used to develop two metrics identifying failure: a warning to detect the start of overcharge and an emergency stop (E-stop) to immediately take the battery out of service. The identification method involved locating magnitude differences of several ultrasound features compared to baseline operation considering different currents and temperatures, and the warning/stopping metrics were consistent across all experiments. For an average overcharge time of 140 minutes, the average warning was issued 124 minutes before the failure and the average E-stop was triggered 94 minutes before failure. As a test of using ultrasound for early warning detection, a battery was forced into overcharge and returned to normal cycling conditions based on the previously determined warning metric. Both the voltage profile and the ultrasound measurements returned to their baseline behavior, indicating that ultrasonic detection can not only identify battery failure before a catastrophic event, but can also provide early enough warnings such that overcharges can be detected and corrected quickly enough so the battery does not need to be decommissioned.]

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automating Detection and Diagnosis of Faults, Failures, and Underperformance in PV Plants

The project developed hybrid physics-based and machine-learning methods for near-real-time detection of balance-of-system faults (e.g., string, combiner, and tracker outages) in utility-scale Photovoltaic plants, achieving over 50% true positive rates with under 10% false positives and significantly reducing engineering setup time. In the extended phase, the scope expanded to plant-level underperformance analysis and industry benchmarking through the SUPER.epri.com platform. SUPER standardizes data processing and performance metrics across more than 9 GWac and 120+ plants, enabling robust comparisons and insights into loss rates, inverter downtime, and capacity degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

SCEPTRE: A Cyber-Physical Emulation Capability

Cyber-physical systems form a critical but vulnerable backbone to US critical infrastructure. Recent high-profile cyber-attacks have shown the need for increased assessment and hardening of these systems. However, such assessments and investigations into advanced technologies to harden these systems is difficult due to their operational nature. Instead, modeling of these systems is heavily leveraged. Investigation into these complex systems and their potential cascading failures requires comprehensive modeling of both the cyber and physical components of the system. This paper introduces SCEPTRE, an emulation capability to address this need.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗
DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Validation of a Simulation Tool to Predict the Combined Structural, Electrical, Electrochemical and Thermal Responses of Automotive Batteries

Battery safety is one of the most important design factors of electrified vehicles (EVs) since battery failure may lead to a catastrophic consequence. To improve the safety of battery systems in EVs, battery behaviors under various abuse conditions should be well understood. One way to examine battery response under extreme conditions is to conduct abuse tests in different scenarios. They can provide first-hand pass/fail information on battery safety, but they are usually expensive and time-consuming, which is inconvenient during design iterations and optimization. On the other hand, computational modeling can predict the battery behaviors in a more efficient and cost-effective way, which becomes an important tool to evaluate battery safety. Modeling battery responses and failure is challenging since it involves multiple coupled physical processes, needs to consider complex material properties and is computationally intensive. This project aims to develop a practical simulation tool to predict the combined structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal responses of automotive batteries to crash-induced crush and short circuit and validate it for conditions relevant to automotive crash. Advanced material constitutive models will be utilized to capture the mechanical response of cell components. Moreover, methods will be developed to reduce computational complexity of the model and allow battery safety simulations to extend from cell-level to module/pack level with affordable computational resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degradation Modeling of SOEC Systems

This presentation was delivered at the 2023 AICHE Annual Meeting. This presentation focuses on dynamic modeling of physical degradation of solid oxide cell systems and failure analysis.

Le, Quang↗