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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2000

Reliability and Maintainability (RAM) Training

The theme of this manual is failure physics-the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low-cost reliable products. In a broader sense the manual should do more. It should underscore the urgent need CI for mature attitudes toward reliability. Five of the chapters were originally presented as a classroom course to over 1000 Martin Marietta engineers and technicians. Another four chapters and three appendixes have been added, We begin with a view of reliability from the years 1940 to 2000. Chapter 2 starts the training material with a review of mathematics and a description of what elements contribute to product failures. The remaining chapters elucidate basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures.

Lalli, Vincent R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of surface defects on damage and failure of dynamically driven cylindrical shells

Here, in this work, expanding cylinder experiments are performed using a gas gun on the aluminum 6061 alloy to understand the dynamic deformation and failure behavior of this material in the presence of surface defects in the form of scratches. The experiments are then modeled with the modified Tepla (for tensile plasticity) model, which is equipped with the damage yield function of Gurson [“Continuum theory of ductile rupture by void nucleation and growth: Part I—Yield criteria and flow rules for porous ductile media,” (1977)] and Tvergaard and Needleman [Acta Metall. 32(1), 157–169 (1984)], over-stress viscosity [F. Addessio and J. Johnson, J. Appl. Phys. 74(3), 1640–1648 (1993)], and the underlying viscoplastic model of Preston et al. [J. Appl. Phys. 93(1), 211–220 (2003)] (Preston–Tonks–Wallace model) for the dense material. The Tepla model parameters were calibrated using the Bayesian approach against experimentally measured free-surface velocity data obtained from plate impact experiments on the aluminum 6061 alloy. The evolution of radial expansion and shapes of the deformed cylinder from the simulations on a pristine cylinder wall and a cylinder wall with a longitudinal surface defect shows excellent agreement with the corresponding experimental results. Finally, the role of surface defect size and cylinder wall geometry on the dynamic strength of the cylinder wall was also investigated through a series of simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment for electric grid cybersecurity

Electric grid cybersecurity risk has become a significant concern of industries and governments. This paper proposes a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment method for electric grid cybersecurity risk analysis. The proposed method helps reduce the reliance on expert judgment, capture a broad range of components and system dynamics, and model the interactions between various contributing entities (e.g., attacker, operator). In addition, the scenarios with multiple events, such as the occurrence of both cyberattacks and failures of physical components, the occurrence of both cyberattacks and operators’ (in)correct reactions, are considered and analyzed. Further, for each cyberattack scenario, Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain possible sequences of the system's evolution under study and then derive risk estimates. As an application of the proposed method, the risk assessment method serves as the basis of risk-informed defense resource allocation to improve electric grid cybersecurity. The proposed method is verified using the IEEE 14-bus system by evaluating different security resource allocations for selected cyberattack scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Faster-Than-Real-Time Framework for Reliability-Oriented Simulation of PV Inverters

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) based reliability assessment for photovoltaic (PV) inverters requires long-duration electrical and electrothermal stress histories, yet generating such stress histories with high-fidelity switching models over year long mission profiles is computationally prohibitive. Conventional methods either sacrifice modeling fidelity for speed or require runtimes that are impractical for design iteration and uncertainty studies. To address this bottleneck, this paper presents a High-Performance Computing (HPC) based simulation frame work for faster-than-real-time reliability-oriented simulation. The proposed framework integrates the Average-to-Switching (A2S) method with parallel computing techniques to accelerate switching-level waveform reconstruction. We further introduce optimization strategies, including cluster merging and sensitivity based mission profile screening, to reduce the computational burden. Evaluated using real-world mission profile inputs and a MATLAB/Simulink switching-model reference, the framework reduces the simulation time for a one-year mission from an intractable multi-year duration to approximately 7.3 minutes while maintaining low waveform error. This acceleration provides a practical reliability-oriented simulation engine that can be coupled with component-specific aging models for subsequent PV inverter PoF assessment.

High-performance Computing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Initial microstructural model for creep-fatigue damage in Grade 91 steel

This report describes an initial Crystal Plasticity Finite Element Method (CPFEM) model for cyclic plasticity and damage in Grade 91 steel. The objective of this work is to develop a framework for modeling creep-fatigue interaction in Grade 91 steel to better predict the onset of damage in high temperature microreactor components. Many microreactor concepts envision low operating pressures but relatively high thermal stresses. Under these conditions, creep-fatigue will likely be the dominant design failure mechanism. Physically based models, like the one under development here, could lead to a better understanding of creep-fatigue mechanisms and the effect of stress multiaxiality and hold time on creep-fatigue damage. In turn, this could lead to more efficient microreactor component designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)

The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Development of a realistic stress analysis for fatigue analysis of notched composite laminates

A finite element stress analysis which consists of a membrane and interlaminar shear spring analysis was developed. This approach was utilized in order to model physically realistic failure mechanisms while maintaining a high degree of computational economy. The accuracy of the stress analysis predictions is verified through comparisons with other solutions to the composite laminate edge effect problem. The stress analysis model was incorporated into an existing fatigue analysis methodology and the entire procedure computerized. A fatigue analysis is performed upon a square laminated composite plate with a circular central hole. A complete description and users guide for the computer code FLAC (Fatigue of Laminated Composites) is included as an appendix.

Humphreys, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A study of charged particles/radiation damage to VLSI device materials

Future spacecraft systems such as the manned space station will be subjected to low-dose long term radiation particles. Most electronic systems are affected by such particles. There is therefore a great need to understand device physics and failure mechanisms affected by radiation and to design circuits that would be less susceptible to radiation. Using 2 MeV electron radiation and bias temperature aging, it was found that MOS capacitors that were prepositively biased have lower flatband voltage shift and lesser increase in density of surface state charge than those that were not prepositively biased. In addition, it was shown that there is continued recovery of flatband voltage and density of state charge in irradiated capacitors during both room temperature anneal and 137 degree anneal. When nMOS transistors were subjected to 1 MeV proton radiation, charge pumping and current versus voltage measurements indicated that transconductance degradation, threshold voltage shifts and changes in interface states density may be the primary cause of nMOS transistor failure after radiation. Simulation studies using SPICE were performed on CMOS SRAM cells of various transistor sizes. It is shown that transistor sizing affects the noise margins of CMOS SRAM cells, and that as the beta ratio of the transistors of the CMOS SRAM cell decreases, the effective noise margin of the SRAM cell increases. Some suggestions were made in connection with the design of CMOS SRAMS that are hardened against single event upsets.

Okyere, John G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An evidential reasoning extension to quantitative model-based failure diagnosis

The detection and diagnosis of failures in physical systems characterized by continuous-time operation are studied. A quantitative diagnostic methodology has been developed that utilizes the mathematical model of the physical system. On the basis of the latter, diagnostic models are derived each of which comprises a set of orthogonal parity equations. To improve the robustness of the algorithm, several models may be used in parallel, providing potentially incomplete and/or conflicting inferences. Dempster's rule of combination is used to integrate evidence from the different models. The basic probability measures are assigned utilizing quantitative information extracted from the mathematical model and from online computation performed therewith.

Gertler, Janos J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Photonic Component Qualification and Implementation Activities at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

The photonics group in Code 562 at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center supports a variety of space flight programs at NASA including the: International Space Station (ISS), Shuttle Return to Flight Mission, Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), Express Logistics Carrier, and the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program (NEPP). Through research, development, and testing of the photonic systems to support these missions much information has been gathered on practical implementations for space environments. Presented here are the highlights and lessons learned as a result of striving to satisfy the project requirements for high performance and reliable commercial optical fiber components for space flight systems. The approach of how to qualify optical fiber components for harsh environmental conditions, the physics of failure and development lessons learned will be discussed.

Ott, Melanie N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

High-Fidelity Modeling for Health Monitoring in Honeycomb Sandwich Structures

High-Fidelity Model of the sandwich composite structure with real geometry is reported. The model includes two composite facesheets, honeycomb core, piezoelectric actuator/sensors, adhesive layers, and the impactor. The novel feature of the model is that it includes modeling of the impact and wave propagation in the structure before and after the impact. Results of modeling of the wave propagation, impact, and damage detection in sandwich honeycomb plates using piezoelectric actuator/sensor scheme are reported. The results of the simulations are compared with the experimental results. It is shown that the model is suitable for analysis of the physics of failure due to the impact and for testing structural health monitoring schemes based on guided wave propagation.

Luchinsky, Dimitry G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Cryogenic Quenching Process for Electronic Part Screening

The use of electronic parts at cryogenic temperatures (less than 100 C) for extreme environments is not well controlled or developed from a product quality and reliability point of view. This is in contrast to the very rigorous and well-documented procedures to qualify electronic parts for mission use in the 55 to 125 C temperature range. A similarly rigorous methodology for screening and evaluating electronic parts needs to be developed so that mission planners can expect the same level of high reliability performance for parts operated at cryogenic temperatures. A formal methodology for screening and qualifying electronic parts at cryogenic temperatures has been proposed. The methodology focuses on the base physics of failure of the devices at cryogenic temperatures. All electronic part reliability is based on the bathtub curve, high amounts of initial failures (infant mortals), a long period of normal use (random failures), and then an increasing number of failures (end of life). Unique to this is the development of custom screening procedures to eliminate early failures at cold temperatures. The ability to screen out defects will specifically impact reliability at cold temperatures. Cryogenic reliability is limited by electron trap creation in the oxide and defect sites at conductor interfaces. Non-uniform conduction processes due to process marginalities will be magnified at cryogenic temperatures. Carrier mobilities change by orders of magnitude at cryogenic temperatures, significantly enhancing the effects of electric field. Marginal contacts, impurities in oxides, and defects in conductor/conductor interfaces can all be magnified at low temperatures. The novelty is the use of an ultra-low temperature, short-duration quenching process for defect screening. The quenching process is designed to identify those defects that will precisely (and negatively) affect long-term, cryogenic part operation. This quenching process occurs at a temperature that is at least 25 C colder than the coldest expected operating temperature. This quenching process is the opposite of the standard burn-in procedure. Normal burn-in raises the temperature (and voltage) to activate quickly any possible manufacturing defects remaining in the device that were not already rejected at a functional test step. The proposed inverse burn-in or quenching process is custom-tailored to the electronic device being used. The doping profiles, materials, minimum dimensions, interfaces, and thermal expansion coefficients are all taken into account in determining the ramp rate, dwell time, and temperature.

Sheldon, Douglas J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Bole, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Systematic Approach to Hardware Qualification

A systematic approach for the development of a hardware qualification approach is described. This approach stems from the need to break the "Catch-22" of not being able to fly new technology because it hasn't flown. A physics of failure approach is used to identify failure modes and the impact and likelihood of these failures on the mission requirements is plotted in a Requirements Matrix. These same failure modes are plotted against the effectiveness of the available Preventions, Analyses, Control and Tests (PACTs) at screening for, or eliminating, these failure modes in a Test Effectiveness Matrix. Matrix multiplication results in a ranked set of PACTs which can be sorted according to cost and redundancy with other PACTs. This, and other information which results from the process, will allow project managers to make more informed decisions regarding the cost and risk tradeoffs inherent in any qualification program.

hardware↗

NASA NTRS2022

Reliability Assurance for COTS Capacitors

Burn-in (BI) and life testing (LT) are the most important reliability related elements of quality assurance for components used in space systems. This presentation discusses the need of transition from the existing approach to BI, LT, and destructive physical analysis (DPA) of COTS capacitors that is based on military specifications to an alternative approach that is based on Physics of Failure and HALT.

reliability↗

NASA NTRS2026

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model↗