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NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds

The uncertainty in the global climate sensitivity to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide is often stated to be 1.5-4.5 K, largely due to uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. The lower end of this range is based on the assumption or prediction in some GCMs that cloud liquid water behaves adiabatically, thus implying that cloud optical thickness will increase in a warming climate if the physical thickness of clouds is invariant. Satellite observations of low-level cloud optical thickness and liquid water path have challenged this assumption, however, at low and middle latitudes. We attempt to explain the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in the Southern Great Plains. We find that low cloud liquid water path is insensitive to temperature in winter but strongly decreases with temperature in summer. The latter occurs because surface relative humidity decreases with warming, causing cloud base to rise and clouds to geometrically thin. Meanwhile, inferred liquid water contents hardly vary with temperature, suggesting entrainment depletion. Physically, the temperature dependence appears to represent a transition from higher probabilities of stratified boundary layers at cold temperatures to a higher incidence of convective boundary layers at warm temperatures. The combination of our results and the earlier satellite findings imply that the minimum climate sensitivity should be revised upward from 1.5 K.

DelGenio, Anthony↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stratospheric aerosol injection can weaken the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method for offsetting greenhouse gas-induced warming by introducing scattering aerosols into the lower stratosphere to reflect sunlight. Here we explore a potentially more efficient alternative: weakening the Earth’s greenhouse effect by deploying absorptive aerosols in the upper stratosphere (~10 hPa). These aerosols warm the carbon dioxide emission level—where outgoing longwave radiation is most sensitive to temperature—thereby enhancing top-of-atmosphere infrared emission without altering atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Idealized climate model simulations indicate that this approach can reduce global temperatures an order of magnitude more efficiently per unit aerosol mass than conventional scattering-based interventions. Although based on simplified model experiments lacking interactive aerosol processes and operational constraints, our results identify a distinct physical mechanism for climate intervention, arguing for further research into the impacts—especially potential unintended side effects—of injecting absorptive aerosols into the upper stratosphere as an alternative solar radiation management strategy.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2002

A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2024

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2000

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Mocko, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The January and July performance of the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

A modified version of the two-level atmospheric general circulation model has been developed and employed in the simulation of January and July global climates. The overall physical and numerical formation of the Oregon State University model is the same as that described by Gates and Schlesinger (1977), but in the new version water vapor at the upper level has been made a prognostic variable, the parameterizations of cumulus convection, large-scale condensation and evaporation, clouds, and radiative transfer have been changed, the surface snow mass and ground temperature have been made prognostic variables, and the treatment of the surface boundary layer has been revised. It is found that the model simulates most features of the large-scale distributions of observed January and July climate more accurately than before.

Schlesinger, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Guide for Regional Integrated Assessments: Handbook of Methods and Procedures, Version 5.1

The purpose of this handbook is to describe recommended methods for a trans-disciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national scale) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. An earlier version of this Handbook was developed and used by several AgMIP Regional Research Teams (RRTs) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia (SA)(AgMIP handbook version 4.2, www.agmip.org/regional-integrated-assessments-handbook/). In contrast to the earlier version, which was written specifically to guide a consistent set of integrated assessments across SSA and SA, this version is intended to be more generic such that the methods can be applied to any region globally. These assessments are the regional manifestation of research activities described by AgMIP in its online protocols document (available at www.agmip.org). AgMIP Protocols were created to guide climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology components of its projects.

protocol (computers)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Northern Late Winter Planetary Waves: MRO/MARCI Observations and Mars Climate Model Simulations

As does Earth, Mars presents pronounced global atmospheric circulation patterns. Solar differential heating drives mean meridional overturning (Hadley) circulations which are deep and intense, are hemispherically asymmetric, and where a cross-equatorial single cell dominates. Within middle and high latitudes, thermally indirect eddy-driven (Ferrel) circulation cells have been indicated. Differently, however, large-amplitude orography on planetary and continental scales on Mars can force very non-Earth-like hemispheric circulation patterns. Recent observations from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, "Mars Color Imager" (MARCI) instrument are utilized that emphasize water ice clouds in ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths, and these measurements have been binned into "daily global maps" (DGMs) of water-ice cloud optical depth. The presence of large-scale, extratropical quasi-stationary atmospheric wave disturbances in middle and late winter of the northern hemisphere have been found to be present in such DGMs. In combination with such observations, a full-physics Mars global climate model (NASA ARC marsgcm 2.1) is applied to place the observations into context. During late northern winter, it is found that strong, forced Rossby modes (i.e., planetary waves) exist, and with direct correlation to columnintegrated cloud opacity undulating spatial patterns. At this season, zonal wavenumber s = 2 dominates (in contrast to wavenumber s = 1), consistent with MGS/TES analyses at this particular season (Banfield et al., 2003). Large-scale, planetary waves dictate the "coherence" of the northern polar vortex. Fundamentally, such forced planetary waves influence the polar vortex's impermeability (wave-induced) to tracer transport (e.g., dust and water-ice aerosol) and temporal mean water vapor spatial variations. The large-scale dynamical features of such planetary waves will be highlighted and discussed.

Northern polar vortex↗

NASA NTRS2007

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux as Seen from Passive Microwave Satellite Algorithms

Ocean surface turbulent fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Deriving physically-based latent and sensible heat fluxes from satellite is dependent on inferences of near surface moisture and temperature from coarser layer retrievals or satellite radiances. Uncertainties in these "retrievals" propagate through bulk aerodynamic algorithms, interacting as well with error properties of surface wind speed, also provided by satellite. By systematically evaluating an array of passive microwave satellite algorithms, the SEAFLUX project is providing improved understanding of these errors and finding pathways for reducing or eliminating them. In this study we focus on evaluating the interannual variability of several passive microwave-based estimates of latent heat flux starting from monthly mean gridded data. The algorithms considered range from those based essentially on SSM/I (e.g. HOAPS) to newer approaches that consider additional moisture information from SSM/T-2 or AMSU-B and lower tropospheric temperature data from AMSU-A. On interannual scales, variability arising from ENSO events and time-lagged responses of ocean turbulent and radiative fluxes in other ocean basins (as well as the extratropical Pacific) is widely recognized, but still not well quantified. Locally, these flux anomalies are of order 10-20 W/sq m and present a relevant "target" with which to verify algorithm performance in a climate context. On decadal time scales there is some evidence from reanalyses and remotely-sensed fluxes alike that tropical ocean-averaged latent heat fluxes have increased 5-10 W/sq m since the early 1990s. However, significant uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Our work addresses the origin of these uncertainties and provides statistics on time series of tropical ocean averages, regional space / time correlation analysis, and separation of contributions by variations in wind and near surface humidity deficit. Comparison to variations in reanalysis data sets is also provided for reference.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Proximal ecological effects of the 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens

The diversity of ecosystems and volcanic processes involved in the 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens, southwest Washington, provide an excellent setting for examining effects of volcanic events on ecosystems. These eruptions included a lateral blast, debris avalanche, mudflows, pyroclastic flows, and airfall tephra. Affected ecosystems within 30 km of the vent were lakes, streams, upland and riparian forest, and meadows. Ecological disturbances imposed by the Mount St. Helens events were predominantly physical, rather than climatic or chemical which are the dominant classes of disturbances considered in analysis of global catastrophes. Analysis of ecosystem response to disturbance should be based on consideration of composition and structure of the predisturbance system in terms that represent potential survivability of organisms, mechanisms in the primary disturbance, initial survivors, secondary disturbances arising from the primary disturbance and the biological responses to secondary disturbances, invasion of the site by new propagules, interactions among secondary disturbance processes and surviving and invading organisms. Predicting ecosystem response to disturbance is enchanced by considering the mechanisms of disturbance rather than type of disturbance. In the 1980 Mount St. Helens events, the disturbance types, involved primarily the mechanisms of sedimentation, heating, and shear stress. Each disturbance type involved one or more mechanisms. Ecosystem response varied greatly across the landscape. Analysis of ecosystem response to disturbance, regardless of type, should include detailed consideration of the properties of individual species, primary and secondary disturbance mechanisms, and their distributions across landscapes.

Swanson, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Barnett, T. P.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Overview and Scientific Agenda of Global Precipitation Mission

This paper addresses the status of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. The GPM notional design involves a 9-member satellite constellation, one of which wilt be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (DFPR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other eight members of the constellation will be considered daughters of the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7 - 85 GHz ,frequency range - likely to include a combination of lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/Experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., SSM/I and AMSR-E & -F). The constellation is designed to provide no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe using sun-synchronous orbit architecture for the daughter satellites, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud-precipitation microphysical processes and the "training-calibrating" information for retrieval algorithms used on daughter satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community nations). The mission is expected to involve additional international participants, sister agencies to the mainstream space agencies, and a diverse collection scientists from academia, government, and the private sector, A critical element in understanding the scientific thinking which has motivated the GPM project is an understanding of what scientific problems TRMM has and has not been able to address and at what scales. The TRMM satellite broke important scientific ground because it carried to space an array of rain-sensitive instruments, two of which were specifically designed for physical precipitation retrieval. These were the 9-channel TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the 13.8 GHz Precipitation Radar (PR). By the same token, because TRMM is a single satellite in a low inclination, low altitude, non-sun-synchronous orbit, it cannot provide global coverage or regular diurnal sampling. These features are essential for many current scientific inquiries involving physical processes of climate and the global water cycle, the modeling of hydrometeorological-biogeochemical cycling, and coupled land-atmosphere/ocean-atmosphere exchanges. Moreover, TRMM has not been able to retrieve explicit properties of the drop size distribution (DSD), a final major barrier to making accurate rain measurements, because the single frequency TRMM radar cannot measure differential reflectivity. which is a minimal requirement for attacking rain retrieval within the framework of extinction cross-section-dependency. GPM is expected to surmount much of the DSD retrieval problem because its core satellite wilt have the capacity to make differential reflectivity measurements with its Ku-Ka band radar (13.6 - 35 GHz) called DFPR - being developed by NASDA/CRL in Japan. This paper will provide an overview of the above issues as well as present a discussion on the expected measurement improvements.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing for Land Resources

Spaceborne microwave radiometry is an important technique for obtaining global estimates of parameters important to Earth's hydrologic cycle, land resources, environmental monitoring, and climate. They key physical processes involved in these applications are the land-atmosphere exchanges of heat and moisture, and their status and variability on different time and space scales.

microwave radiometry hydrology land resources↗

NASA NTRS2012

Miniature Tunable Laser Spectrometers for Quantifying Atmospheric Trace Gases, Water Resources, Earth Back-Contamination, and In Situ Resource Utilization

The Tunable Laser Spectrometers (TLS) technique has seen wide applicability in gas measurement and analysis for atmospheric analysis, industrial, commercial and health monitoring and space applications. In Earth science using balloons and aircraft over 2 decades, several groups (JPL, NASA Langley & Ames, NOAA, Harvard U., etc) have demonstrated the technique for ozone hole studies, lab kinetics measurements, cloud physics and transport, climate change in the ice record. The recent availability of high-power (mW) room temperature lasers (TDL, IC, QC) has enabled miniaturized, high-sensitivity spectrometers for industry and space (1) Mars, Titan, Venus, Saturn, Moon (2) Commercial isotope ratio spectrometers are replacing bulkier, complex isotope ratio mass spectrometers.

Tunable laser spectrometers (TLS)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Early Spring Post-Fire Snow Albedo Dynamics in High Latitude Boreal Forests Using Landsat-8 OLI Data

Taking advantage of the improved radiometric resolution of Landsat-8 OLI which, unlike previous Landsat sensors, does not saturate over snow, the progress of fire recovery progress at the landscape scale (less than 100 m) is examined. High quality Landsat-8 albedo retrievals can now capture the true reflective and layered character of snow cover over a full range of land surface conditions and vegetation densities. This new capability particularly improves the assessment of post-fire vegetation dynamics across low- to high-burn severity gradients in Arctic and boreal regions in the early spring, when the albedos during recovery show the greatest variation. We use 30 m resolution Landsat-8 surface reflectances with concurrent coarser resolution (500 m) MODIS high quality full inversion surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Functions (BRDF) products to produce higher resolution values of surface albedo. The high resolution full expression shortwave blue sky albedo product performs well with an overall RMSE of 0.0267 between tower and satellite measures under both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. While the importance of post-fire albedo recovery can be discerned from the MODIS albedo product at regional and global scales, our study addresses the particular importance of early spring post-fire albedo recovery at the landscape scale by considering the significant spatial heterogeneity of burn severity, and the impact of snow on the early spring albedo of various vegetation recovery types. We found that variations in early spring albedo within a single MODIS gridded pixel can be larger than 0.6. Since the frequency and severity of wildfires in Arctic and boreal systems is expected to increase in the coming decades, the dynamics of albedo in response to these rapid surface changes will increasingly impact the energy balance and contribute to other climate processes and physical feedback mechanisms. Surface radiation products derived from Landsat-8 data will thus play an important role in characterizing the carbon cycle and ecosystem processes of high latitude systems.

Landsat-8 snow albedo↗

NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

The birth of a field through a marriage of scales: urban meteorological modeling meets regional climate modeling

Urban meteorological modeling and regional climate modeling developed largely independently, with each discipline addressing different aspects of atmospheric processes across space and time. In this review, I show that urban climate modeling did not arise as a simple scaling extension of urban meteorological modeling or an add-on to regional climate modeling, but instead emerged through the selective inheritance of complementary strengths from its parents after both disciplines reached sufficient methodological maturity. By tracing the parallel evolution of these disciplines, I demonstrate that urban climate modeling inherited the physically explicit treatment of the built environment developed within urban meteorological modeling, and the hierarchical scale translation and climatological framing that matured within regional climate modeling, allowing urban effects to influence climate-relevant outcomes. Building on this synthesis, I propose an objective, and methodologically-grounded definition of urban climate modeling that distinguishes it from urban meteorological modeling. This distinction is increasingly important as urban climate data informs decisions with long-lived societal consequences, and as ambiguity in terminology risks conflating fundamentally different modeling frameworks with distinct physical meaning and decision relevance. In addition to a clarifying definition, this review outlines a research framework for advancing urban climate modeling through scale-aware coupling strategies that preserve physically consistent urban-atmosphere interactions.

regional climate↗