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DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sources of uncertainty in direct seismological measurements of the solar helium abundance

The methods by which Dappen et al. (1988, 1990, 1991) and Dziembowski et al. (1990, 1991, 1992) recently obtained discrepant estimates of the helium abundance in the solar convection zone are compared. The aim of the investigation reported in this paper is to identify the main source of the discrepancy. Using as proxy data eigenfrequencies of a set of modes of a theoretical solar model, computed with the same physics as were the frequencies of a reference model with which these data are compared, the two methods yield similar results. Thus we ascertain that the principal source of the discrepancy is not in the inversions themselves, which yield essentially a measure of the variation of the adiabatic exponent gamma of the material in the He II ionization zone. Instead it is in the approximations adopted in the treatment of heavy elements in the equation of state used to relate the variation of gamma to chemical composition. We obtain acceptably consistent results when inverting solar data by two methods using the same equation of state. We attempt to identify the likely residual sources of uncertainty.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Solar wind models

The understanding of the solar wind is based upon Parker's (1958) description of a thermally driven subsonic - supersonic outflow from a fully ionized electron-proton corona. The basic physical processes of thermally driven solar wind models are discussed. Also studied are the effect of alpha particles in the corona on the solar wind proton flux. The acceleration of the solar wind by Alfven waves is discussed.

Leer, Egil↗
NASA NTRS2004

Wave-Particle Interactions As a Driving Mechanism for the Solar Wind

Our research has been focusing on a highly experimentally relevant issue: intermittency of the fluctuating fields in outflowing plasmas. We have contributed to both the theoretical and experimental research of the topic. In particular, we have developed a theoretical model and data analyzing programs to examine the issue of intermittency in space plasma outflows, including the solar wind. As fluctuating electric fields in the solar wind are likely to provide a heating and acceleration mechanism for the ions, our studies of the intermittency in turbulence in space plasma outflows help us toward achieving the goal of comparing major physical mechanisms that contribute to the driving of the fast solar wind. Our new theoretical model extends the utilities of our global hybrid model, which has allowed us to follow the kinetic evolution of the particle distributions along an inhomogeneous field line while the particles are subjected to various physical mechanisms. The physical effects that were considered in the global hybrid model included wave-particle interactions, an ambipolar electric field that was consistent with the particle distributions themselves, and Coulomb collisions. With an earlier version of the global hybrid model, we examined the overall impact on the solar wind flow due to the combination of these physical effects. In particular, we studied the combined effects of two major mechanisms that had been proposed as the drivers of the fast solar wind: (1) velocity filtration effect due to suprathermal electrons; (2) ion cyclotron resonance. Since the approval of this research grant, we have updated the model such that the effects due to these two driving mechanisms can be examined separately, thereby allowing us to compare their contributions to the acceleration of the solar wind. In the next section, we shall demonstrate that the velocity filtration effect is rather insignificant in comparison with that due to ion cyclotron resonance.

Wagner, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Nozomi Cis-Lunar Phase Orbit Determination

Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) launched Nozomi, its first mission to the planet Mars using the newly developed M-V launch vehicle on July 3, 1998. Scientific objectives of the mission are to study the structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere and its interaction with the solar wind. Nozomi is a cooperative mission between ISAS and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The NASA contribution includes navigation and tracking services provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The spacecraft also serves as an engineering demonstration of basic technology for planetary exploration. One of the new technologies was a unique trajectory, developed by ISAS, which used solar gravitational perturbations at the weak stability boundary as an aid to achieve an Earth-Mars transfer orbit. This trajectory saves approximately 120 m/s of Delta V compared to direct hyperbolic insertion and is considered an enabling technology for the mission. Nozomi was the first spacecraft to employ this trajectory and provided on-orbit validation of the technique. The trajectory was achieved by initially placing the spacecraft in a highly elliptical cis-lunar phasing orbit. Six maneuvers were performed during this period to correct injection errors and target an outbound lunar swingby in September 1998. The gravity assist from the lunar swingby raised apogee to the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. After three more targeting maneuvers, Nozomi performed an inbound lunar swingby followed immediately by a powered Earth swingby in late December 1998. A 420 m/s Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) burn at the final Earth periapsis was intended to place the spacecraft on a heliocentric trajectory leading to Mars orbit insertion in October 1999. Orbit determination for Nozomi is performed in parallel by both ISAS and the Multi-Mission Navigation (MMNAV) group at JPL. This was an advantage for the mission because each group would generate solutions based on data collected from their respective tracking networks. Spacecraft events, such as sequence uplinks and maneuvers, were generally scheduled during passes at the Usuda tracking station in Japan. As a result, maneuver design and reconstruction was derived from MMNAV solutions based on JPL tracking data obtained immediately prior to or following maneuvers. Data was also exchanged between ISAS and MMNAV so orbit determination could be performed on joint data sets in support of critical targeting late in the cis-lunar phase. In this paper, information regarding the MMNAV orbit determination effort for the first six months of the mission is presented. The spacecraft trajectory is characterized first, followed by a discussion of the orbit determination estimation procedure and models. Results from selected orbit solutions are presented and compared against reconstructed trajectories. One area of emphasis in this paper is orbit determination in the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. Precise navigation was necessary to target the second lunar swingby and the powered Earth swingby. Delivery accuracy of 150 m was required for these critical encounters, but a number of factors contributed to the general degradation of orbit determination accuracy. This included the fact that the spacecraft was at apogee, at a range of 1.7 million km and moving at less than I km/sec perpendicular to the line of sight. Nozomi was also close to zero degrees declination where there are known limitations on orbit determination performance. Finally, S-band tracking data was acquired through the Nozomi backup low gain antenna. This antenna is offset from the axis of this spin stabilized spacecraft and superimposed large signatures in the Doppler and range data. These difficulties were overcome by combining long data arcs, spanning several maneuvers, with a high fidelity solar pressure model. The model included a physically accurate representation of the spacecraft structure and a high time resolution orientation model. Observation modeling included the removal of the spin induced Doppler bias, spin signature and per pass correction of range calibration errors applied for data leading up to critical events. As a result, all orbit determination goals were met. A second area of emphasis in this paper is the JPL tracking and orbit determination effort in support of the TMI maneuver. TMI occurred out of contact with ground stations and the JPL Goldstone tracking complex had the first pass following the bum. As a result, MMNAV had the responsibility to make a rapid assessment of the maneuver performance. MMNAV made the determination that a 100 m/s under bum had occurred and promptly informed ISAS via voice lines. ISAS immediately began preparations for a correction maneuver (TMIc), which had to be performed during the next Usuda pass. The near real time assessment by MMNAV provided accurate antenna frequency and pointing updates for the spacecraft acquisition at Usuda and the close coordination between the two agencies enabled the design and successful execution of the TMc maneuver. Propellant consumption during the correction burn dictated that the mission be redesigned. ISAS developed a new plan which adds 3 full solar orbits, two Earth swingbys and one lunar swingby with arrival at Mars in January 2004. The final Mars orbit will still enable the mission to achieve all of its science objectives.

Ryne, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2001

The New Solar Corona

We focus on new observational capabilities (Yohkoh, SoHO, TRACE) observations, modeling, approaches, and insights into physical processes of the solar corona. The most impressive new results and problems discussed in this article can be appreciated from the movies and available on the Annual Reviews web site.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of the solar spectrum

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for nonradiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Some results of cislunar plasma research

The main results of plasma cislunar investigations, carried out during Luna-19 and Luna-22 spacecraft flights by means of dual frequency dispersion interferrometry, are briefly outlined. It is shown that a thin layer of plasma, with a height of several tens of kilometers and a maximum concentration of the order 1,000 electrons/cu cm exists above the solar illuminated lunar surface. A physical model of the formation and existence of such a plasma in cislunar space is proposed, taking into account the influence of local magnetic areas on the moon.

Vyshlov, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

Mundt, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Calculation of Theoretical Chromospheric Models and the Interpretation of the Solar Spectrum

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Rurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data or over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. our goals are: to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Force-free magnetic fields - Generating functions and footpoint displacements

This paper presents analytic and numerical calculations that explore equilibrium sequences of bipolar force-free magnetic fields in relation to displacments of their magnetic footpoints. It is shown that the appearance of magnetic islands - sometimes interpreted as marking the loss of equilibrium in models of the solar atmosphere - is likely associated only with physically unrealistic footpoint displacements such as infinite separation or 'tearing' of the model photosphere. The work suggests that the loss of equilibrium in bipolar configurations, sometimes proposed as a mechanism for eruptive solar events, probably requires either fully three-dimensional field configurations or nonzero plasma pressure. The results apply only to fields that are strictly bipolar, and do not rule out equilibrium loss in more complex structures such as quadrupolar fields.

Wolfson, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1993

Model development for Ulysses and SOHO

The purpose of this research is to provide scientific expertise in solar physics and in the development and use of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of coronal structures for the computation of Lyman alpha scattered radiation in these structures. The specific objectives will be to run MHD models with new boundary conditions and compute resulting scattered solar Lyman alpha intensities, guided by results from the first series of boundary conditions.

Wu, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ion-Neutral Coupling in Solar Prominence

Coupling between ions and neutrals in magnetized plasmas is fundamentally important to many aspects of heliophysics, including our ionosphere, the solar chromosphere, the solar wind interaction with planetary atmospheres, and the interface between the heliosphere and the interstellar medium. Ion-neutral coupling also plays a major role in the physics of solar prominences. By combining theory, modeling, and observations we are working toward a better understanding of the structure and dynamics of partially ionized prominence plasma. Two key questions are addressed in the present work: 1) what physical mechanism(s) sets the cross-field scale of prominence threads? 2) Are ion-neutral interactions responsible for the vertical flows and structure in prominences? We present initial results from a study investigating what role ion-neutral interactions play in prominence dynamics and structure. This research was supported by NASA.

Gilbert, H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Steady state flow/field model of solar wind interaction with Venus - Global implications of local effects

Physical and chemical processes in the Venus ionosphere driven by the interaction of the solar wind with the atmosphere of Venus are described, and a model describing the interrelationships of these processes in a self-consistent manner is formulated. It is shown that the magnetic field configuration of the ionosphere is a steady state global structure which results from a combination of a large-scale 'open' current system connecting through the ionopause to the postshock solar wind and two small-scale 'closed' current systems entirely confined within the ionosphere and generated by ionospheric flows and shears. A previously detected ionospheric layer in O2(+) near 170 km altitude is shown to be a new type of ionospheric layer resulting from transition of solar-wind-driven vertical flow to velocities approaching Mach 1.

Cloutier, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Physics of the interaction of the solar wind with the ionosphere of Venus - Flow/field models

Venus deflects incident solar wind by means of thermal and magnetic pressure, both of which are produced by ionospheric currents that are in turn driven by pressure gradients and electric fields induced in the ionosphere by the flowing magnetized solar wind plasma. The ionospheric currents connect across the ionopause into the ionosheath region, and close on, and behind, the bow shock. The computed ionospheric plasma velocity distribution is found to be spatially asymmetric, with the fastest flow velocities lying perpendicular to the ionospheric magnetic fields. Computations also indicate that the ionosphere is susceptible to an MHD shear instability whose extent and location is a function of external solar wind conditions. The present Venus ionosphere model compares well with in situ Pioneer Venus Orbiter observations.

Cloutier, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Additional application of the NASCAP code. Volume 2: SEPS, ion thruster neutralization and electrostatic antenna model

The interactions of spacecraft systems with the surrounding plasma environment were studied analytically for three cases of current interest: calculating the impact of spacecraft generated plasmas on the main power system of a baseline solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS), modeling the physics of the neutralization of an ion thruster beam by a plasma bridge, and examining the physical and electrical effects of orbital ambient plasmas on the operation of an electrostatically controlled membrane mirror. In order to perform these studies, the NASA charging analyzer program (NASCAP) was used as well as several other computer models and analytical estimates. The main result of the SEPS study was to show how charge exchange ion expansion can create a conducting channel between the thrusters and the solar arrays. A fluid-like model was able to predict plasma potentials and temperatures measured near the main beam of an ion thruster and in the vicinity of a hollow cathode neutralizer. Power losses due to plasma currents were shown to be substantial for several proposed electrostatic antenna designs.

Katz, I.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Physics of the inner heliosphere: Mechanisms, models and observational signatures

The physics of the solar wind acceleration phenomena (e.g. effect of transient momentum deposition on the temporal and spatial variation of the temperature, density and flow speed of the solar wind, formation of shocks, etc.) and the resultant effects on observational signatures, particularly spectroscopic signature are studied. Phenomena under study include: (1) wave motions, particularly spectroscopic signatures are studied. Phenomena under study include:(1) wave motions, particularly Alfven and fast mode waves, (2) the formation of standing shocks in the inner heliosphere as a result of momentum and/or heat addition to the wind and (3) coronal transient phenomena where momentum and/or heat are deposited in the corona to produce transient plasma heating and/or mass ejections. Also included are the theoretical investigation of spectroscopic plasma diagnostics for the inner heliosphere and the analysis of existing Skylab and other relevant data.

Withbroe, G. L.↗