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Applications of Machine Learning to Predicting Core-collapse Supernova Explosion Outcomes

Most existing criteria derived from progenitor properties of core-collapse supernovae are not very accurate in predicting explosion outcomes. We present a novel look at identifying the explosion outcome of core-collapse supernovae using a machine-learning approach. Informed by a sample of 100 2D axisymmetric supernova simulations evolved with F ornax , we train and evaluate a random forest classifier as an explosion predictor. Furthermore, we examine physics-based feature sets including the compactness parameter, the Ertl condition, and a newly developed set that characterizes the silicon/oxygen interface. With over 1500 supernovae progenitors from 9-27 M ⊙ , we additionally train an autoencoder to extract physics-agnostic features directly from the progenitor density profiles. We find that the density profiles alone contain meaningful information regarding their explodability. Both the silicon/oxygen and autoencoder features predict the explosion outcome with ≈90% accuracy. In anticipation of much larger multidimensional simulation sets, we identify future directions in which machine-learning applications will be useful beyond the explosion outcome prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

G4CMP: Condensed matter physics simulation using the G$\scriptsize{\mathrm{EANT}}$4 toolkit

G4CMP simulates phonon and charge transport in cryogenic semiconductor crystals using the Geant4 toolkit. The transport code is capable of simulating the propagation of acoustic phonons as well as electron and hole charge carriers. Herein processes for anisotropic phonon propagation, oblique charge-carrier propagation, and phonon emission by accelerated charge carriers are included. The simulation reproduces theoretical predictions and experimental observations such as phonon caustics, heat-pulse propagation times, and mean charge-carrier drift velocities. In addition to presenting the physics and features supported by G4CMP, this report outlines example applications from the dark matter and quantum information science communities. These communities are applying G4CMP to model and design devices for which the energy transported by phonons and charge carriers is germane to the performance of superconducting instruments and circuits placed on silicon and germanium substrates. The G4CMP package is available to download from GitHub: github.com/kelseymh/G4CMP.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Insights into Prismatic Loop Formation in Irradiated Fe–Cr Alloys from Hypothesis-Driven Active Learning and Causal Analysis

Neutron and electron irradiation experimental studies conducted on body-centered cubic Fe and Fe–Cr alloys have established two prismatic dislocation loop populations, which have Burgers vectors of either a/2$\langle$111$\rangle$ or a$\langle$100$\rangle$. Here, the loop formation depends on factors such as dose (D), dose rate (D rt ), temperature (T), chromium content (Cr%), and other alloying elements. Hence, it is important to understand how irradiation-induced dislocation loops evolve conditional upon the loop characteristics, such as loop density (DD), average loop size d̅, and irradiation parameters (D, D rt , T, and irradiation type), which is still an active area of research. To understand these complex structure–property relationships, machine learning (ML) is employed in a three-step approach. This includes imputing missing data with a k-nearest neighbor, generating functionalized features, and assessing feature importance with random forest classification and regression. Physics-based features are incorporated in a hypothesis-driven active learning scheme to overcome data unavailability challenges. Insights obtained from ML models (i) to categorize dislocation loop types, show the highest correlation with d̅; (ii) Log(DD), obtained through mathematical formulations involving D, Cr%, d̅, and T (e.g., Log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/d̅ and log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/T). Hypothesis-driven active learning is able to predict Log(DD) in which the experimental date is not known. Causal models verify cause–effect relationships for dislocation loop classification and irradiation factors in FeCr alloys.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Enabling site-specific well leakage risk estimation during geologic carbon sequestration using a modular deep-learning-based wellbore leakage model

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating net carbon emissions and growing climate concern by storing CO 2 in reservoirs. Oil and gas brownfields are an attractive option for CO 2 storage, but these sites have many historical wellbores from petroleum production and can be a potential leakage pathway for CO 2 or formation brine. Therefore, risk management of GCS operations requires an assessment of potential well leakage. Due to the high uncertainty of the system, stochastic approaches are ideal for quantifying the range of risk behaviors, but they must be computationally efficient in the face of complex physics. Here, we develop a new physics-centric deep learning wellbore model to predict the leakage of CO 2 and brine through leaky wellbores. Multi-physics numerical simulations were used to generate data sets, and physics-informed features were introduced. Neural networks were optimized with an automated searching algorithm. Feature analysis quantifies the impact of each feature on model prediction and confirms the role of physics-inspired parameters. The model shows high predictive performance across a wide range of geologic and injection conditions and well attributes. In conclusion, a case study illustrates how the model is applied to assess well leakage in GCS operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Two-Dimensional Energy Histograms as Features for Machine Learning to Predict Adsorption in Diverse Nanoporous Materials

A major obstacle for machine learning (ML) in chemical science is the lack of physically informed feature representations that provide both accurate prediction and easy interpretability of the ML model. In this work, we describe adsorption systems using novel two-dimensional energy histogram (2D-EH) features, which are obtained from the probe-adsorbent energies and energy gradients at grid points located throughout the adsorbent. The 2D-EH features encode both energetic and structural information of the material and lead to highly accurate ML models (coefficient of determination R2 ~ 0.94–0.99) for predicting single-component adsorption capacity in metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Here, we consider the adsorption of spherical molecules (Kr and Xe), linear alkanes with a wide range of aspect ratios (ethane, propane, n-butane, and n-hexane), and a branched alkane (2,2-dimethylbutane) over a wide range of temperatures and pressures. The interpretable 2D-EH features enable the ML model to learn the basic physics of adsorption in pores from the training data. We show that these MOF-data-trained ML models are transferrable to different families of amorphous nanoporous materials. We also identify several adsorption systems where capillary condensation occurs, and ML predictions are more challenging. Nevertheless, our 2D-EH features still outperform structural features including those derived from persistent homology. The novel 2D-EH features may help accelerate the discovery and design of advanced nanoporous materials using ML for gas storage and separation in the future.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatio-Temporal Deep Graph Network for Event Detection, Localization, and Classification in Cyber-Physical Electric Distribution System

This work proposes a deep graph learning framework to identify, locate, and classify power, cyber, and cyber power events at the distribution system level. The proposed algorithm jointly exploits spatial, temporal, and node-level cyber and physical data features. The developed graph neural network, together with a deep autoencoder, utilizes physical measurements from distribution level phasor measurement units and cyber data from communication network logs. The spatial structure of the synchrophasor measurements and network is incorporated through a weighted adjacency matrix. The temporal structure is incorporated by defining a spatial operation in the gated recurrent unit. This spatio-temporal learning element resides inside a power event detection, localization, and classification module that provides the degree of confidence for an event label. To accurately pinpoint the location of an event to the nearest bus equipped with a measurement unit, a combination of squared error and proximity score is utilized. Also included is a cyber event detection module that employs heteroskedasticity to analyze the significance of various cyber features during different types of attacks. Finally, a dual-bit cyber-power decision table determines the nature of the event. The proposed method is validated on two distribution systems modeled in OPAL-RT/Hypersim with limited phasor measurement units for different possible physical and cyber events. Further analyses include comparison with other state-of-the-art methods and validation in the presence of measurement noise. As a result, our method outperforms existing approaches and achieves an average detection accuracy of 97.97%, F1-score of 96.88%, precision of 96.53%, and recall of 98.57%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Forward Physics Facility - Snowmass 2021 Letter of Interest

A rich physics program remains unexplored in the far-forward region at the LHC. The Forward Physics Facility (FPF) is a proposal to enlarge an existing cavern in the far-forward region of ATLAS to house a suite of experiments with groundbreaking new capabilities for neutrinos, long-lived particle searches, milli-charged particle searches, QCD, dark matter, dark sectors, and cosmic rays. The FPF will be located 500 m from the ATLAS interaction point. It is shielded from the ATLAS interaction point by 100 m of concrete and rock, creating an extremely low-background environment, ideal for many standard model studies and new physics searches. In this Letter of Interest, we describe the FPF’s location and general features, its physics potential in the HL-LHC era, and topics for further study.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

FLASSH 1.0: Thermal scattering law evaluation and cross section generation for reactor physics applications

The Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH) is a modern, advanced code which evaluates the thermal scattering law (TSL) along with accompanying cross sections. FLASSH features generalized methods which accommodate any material structure. Historical approximations including the incoherent and cubic approximations have been removed. Instead, the latest release of FLASSH features advanced physics options including distinct corrections (1-phonon contributions) and non-cubic formulations. The non-cubic elastic and inelastic contributions are necessary to accurately evaluate 1-phonon contributions. Both non-cubic and 1-phonon calculations require high-density sampling of the various scattering directions. Optimization and parallelization of these routines were therefore necessary to produce results in a reasonable timeframe. With these notable improvements to the generalized TSL, FLASSH 1.0 meets benchmark requirements, demonstrating noticeable agreement with experiment for both TSLs and the resulting integrated cross sections. Additional features including a graphical user interface (GUI), plotting diagnostics, and formatted output options including ACE files allow users to complete a TSL evaluation with minimal input and maximum flexibility. The user GUI creates input files for FLASSH, reducing user error and also providing built-in error checks. Autofill options and suggested input values help make TSL evaluation accessible to novice users. The FLASSH code is compiled to run on both Windows and Linux platforms with automatic parallelization. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Computationally efficient CFD prediction of bubbly flow using physics-guided deep learning

To realize efficient computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of two-phase flow, a multi-scale framework was proposed in this paper by applying a physics-guided data-driven approach. Instrumental to this framework, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM) technique was developed for error estimation in two-phase flow simulation using coarse-mesh CFD, to achieve a comparable accuracy as fine-mesh simulations with fast-running feature. In this work, by defining physics-guided parameters and variable gradients as physical features, FSM has the capability to capture the underlying local patterns in the coarse-mesh CFD simulation. Massive low-fidelity data and respective high-fidelity data are used to explore the underlying information relevant to the main simulation errors and the effects of phenomenological scaling. By learning from previous simulation data, a surrogate model using deep feedforward neural network (DFNN) can be developed and trained to estimate the simulation error of coarse-mesh CFD. In a demonstration case of two-phase bubbly flow, the DFNN model well captured and corrected the unphysical “peaks” in the velocity and void fraction profiles near the wall in the coarse-mesh configuration, even for extrapolative predictions. The research documented supports the feasibility of the physics-guided deep learning methods for coarse mesh CFD simulations which has a potential for the efficient industrial design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling and simulation of brinicle formation

Below the Arctic sea ice, under the right conditions, a flux of icy brine flows down into the sea. The icy brine has a much lower fusion point and is denser than normal seawater. As a result, it sinks while freezing everything around it, forming an ice channel called a brinicle (also known as ice stalactite). In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for this phenomenon, assuming cylindrical symmetry. The fluid is considered to be viscous and quasi-stationary. The heat and salt transport are weakly coupled to the fluid motion and are modelled with the corresponding conservation equations, accounting for diffusive and convective effects. Finite-element discretization is employed to solve the coupled system of partial differential equations. We find that the model can capture the general behaviour of the physical system and generate brinicle-like structures while also recovering dendrite composition, which is a physically expected feature aligned with previous experimental results. This represents, to our knowledge, the first complete model proposed that captures the global structure of the physical phenomenon even though it has some discrepancies, such as brine accumulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion using physics-informed meltpool signatures and machine learning

In this work we accomplished the monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing process. This objective was realized by extracting physics-informed meltpool signatures from an in-situ dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer, and subsequently, analyzing these signatures via computationally tractable machine learning approaches. Porosity in LPBF occurs despite extensive optimization of processing conditions due to stochastic causes. Hence, it is essential to continually monitor the process with in-situ sensors for detecting and mitigating incipient pore formation. In this work a tall cuboid-shaped part (10 mm × 10 mm × 137 mm, material ATI 718Plus) was built with controlled porosity by varying laser power and scanning speed. This test caused various types of porosity, such as lack-of-fusion and keyhole formation, with varying degrees of severity in the part. The meltpool was continuously monitored using a dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer installed in the machine. Physically intuitive process signatures, such as meltpool length, temperature distribution, and ejecta (spatter) characteristics, were extracted from the meltpool images. Subsequently, relatively simple machine learning models, e.g., K-Nearest Neighbors, were trained to predict both the severity and type of porosity as a function of these physics-informed meltpool signatures. These models resulted in a prediction accuracy exceeding 95% (statistical F1-score). The same analysis was carried out with a complex, black-box deep learning convolutional neural network which directly used the meltpool images instead of physics-informed features. The convolutional neural network produced a comparable F1-score in the range of 89–97%. Finally, these results demonstrate that using pragmatic, physics-informed meltpool signatures within a simple machine learning model is as effective for flaw prediction in LPBF as using a complex and computationally demanding black-box deep learning model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tribol Interface Physics Library

Tribol is a modular interface physics library featuring Lagrangian contact algorithms for explicit and implicit solid mechanics applications. More broadly, Tribol supports the research, development, and implementation of numerical methods for interface physics.

Settgast, RandolphR↗

Machine learning applied to classifying neutron resonances

The performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depends on a precise understanding of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials used in these systems. These cross sections exhibit resonance structure whose shape is determined in part by the angular momentum quantum numbers of the resonances. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. In this project, we apply a machine learning technique, namely decision trees, to automate the quantum number assignments. The tree is trained from simulated data generated to mimic the errors found in real data. We explore the use of several physics-motivated features for training our trees, including the nearest neighbor spacing distribution, cumulative level distribution, and channel width distributions. Initial results using random matrix theory motivated fits which demonstrated that we can determine resonance spin groups somewhat reliably. If we use these fits as features in our trees, we can train them to spot outliers corresponding to misassigned resonances. We found that with the large number of features used in this project that the decision tree tended to over t training data resulting in poor performance with respect to the test data. By reducing the number of features, we can achieve nearly perfect assignment of quantum numbers with our training data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MSR Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection White Paper

This document represents the status of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) characteristics for the Molten Salt Reactor designs selected by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) provisional System Steering Committee (pSSC) as representatives of three broad classes of MSRs. The three classes of MSRs are: (1) Liquid-fueled with integrated salt processing, (2) Liquid-fueled without integrated salt processing, (3) Solid-fueled with salt coolant. The intent is to generate preliminary information about the PR&PP merits of the MSR Reactor Technology and to provide insights for optimizing their PR&PP performance for the benefit of MSR system designers. It updates the MSR analysis published in the 2011 report “Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection of the Six Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems”, prepared Jointly by the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Working Group (PRPPWG) and the System Steering Committees of the Generation IV International Forum, taking into account the evolution of both the systems and the GIF R&D activities since its publication. The document, prepared jointly by the GIF PRPPWG and the GIF MSR pSSC, follows the high-level paradigm of the GIF Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Evaluation Methodology to investigate the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection features of the GIF MSR representative designs. For PR, the document analyses and discusses the proliferation resistance aspects in terms of robustness against State-based threats associated with diversion of materials, misuse of facilities, breakout scenarios, and production in clandestine facilities. Similarly, for physical protection, the document discusses the robustness against theft of material and sabotage by non-State actors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Meshfree Methods

Meshfree methods have undergone substantial development and have received much attention in the last two decades. This new family of numerical methods is designed to inherit the main advantages of the finite element method such as compact supports of shape functions and good approximation properties while, at the same time, overcome the main disadvantages of the finite element method caused by the mesh dependence. The meshfree methods share a common feature that no mesh is needed and shape functions are constructed from sets of points, thus eliminating the need for time consuming mesh generation. The most significant advantage of meshfree methods is the flexibility in customizing approximation functions for desired regularity and for capturing essential physics and features of the particular problems of interest. Adaptivity formulation and multiple-scale solution strategies also can be implemented with relative ease. It has become clear that the meshfree methods provide considerable advantages over the conventional finite element methods in solving problems involving moving discontinuities, evolving material interfaces, multiple-scale phenomena, large material distortion and structural deformation, and fracture and damage processes. This Chapter gives an overview of many classes of meshfree methods, with more detailed discussions on Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH), the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), Peridynamics (PD), the Material Point Method (MPM), as well as their applications in various challenging engineering problems.2

Chen, Jiun-Shyan↗