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DOE OSTI2023

Extending the predictive power of perturbative QCD using the principle of maximum conformality and the Bayesian analysis

In addition to the evaluation of high-order loop contributions, the precision and predictive power of perturbative QCD (pQCD) predictions depends on two important issues: (1) how to achieve a reliable, convergent fixed-order series, and (2) how to reliably estimate the contributions of unknown higher-order terms. The recursive use of renormalization group equation, together with the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), eliminates the renormalization scheme-and-scale ambiguities of the conventional pQCD series. The result is a conformal, scale-invariant series of finite order which also satisfies all of the principles of the renormalization group. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian-based approach to estimate the size of the unknown higher order contributions based on an optimized analysis of probability distributions. We show that by using the PMC conformal series, in combination with the Bayesian analysis, one can consistently achieve high degree of reliability estimates for the unknown high order terms. Thus the predictive power of pQCD can be greatly improved. We illustrate this procedure for two pQCD observables: R e+e– and R τ , which are each known up to four loops in pQCD. Numerical analyses confirm that by using the scale-independent and more convergent PMC conformal series, one can achieve reliable Bayesian probability estimates for the unknown higher-order contributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigations of plasma response associated with resonant magnetic perturbation fields using perturbation method in KSTAR H-mode plasmas

Abstract The plasma response associated with the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) field was investigated using the small edge perturbations induced by a modulated supersonic molecular beam injection (SMBI) in KSTAR. The modulated SMBI provides a time-varying perturbation of the plasma density source in the region just inside the last closed flux surface and a modulated flow damping rate. Radial propagation of the toroidal rotation perturbation induced by SMBI from the q = 3 surface to the q = 2 surface was observed. Theoretical analysis using the general perturbed equilibrium code of the RMP intensity profiles of the RMP field is consistent with the phase profile of the toroidal rotation perturbation.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

KMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis

We show that the perturbation at the peak of the light curve of microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0371 is explained by a model with a mass ratio between the host star and planet of q ∼ 0.08. Due to the short event duration (t {sub E} ∼ 6.5 days), the secondary object in this system could potentially be a massive giant planet. A Bayesian analysis shows that the system most likely consists of a host star with a mass M{sub h}=0.09{sub −0.05}{sup +0.14}M{sub ⊙} and a massive giant planet with a mass M{sub p}=7.70{sub −3.90}{sup +11.34}M{sub Jup}. However, the interpretation of the secondary as a planet (i.e., as having M {sub p} < 13M {sub Jup}) rests entirely on the Bayesian analysis. Motivated by this event, we conduct an investigation to determine which constraints meaningfully affect Bayesian analyses for microlensing events. We find that the masses inferred from such a Bayesian analysis are determined almost entirely by the measured value of θ {sub E} and are relatively insensitive to other factors such as the direction of the event (ℓ, b), the lens–source relative proper motion μ {sub rel}, or the specific Galactic model prior.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Many-Body Effects in Aqueous Systems: Synergies Between Interaction Analysis Techniques and Force Field Development

Interaction analysis techniques, including the many-body expansion (MBE), symmetry-adapted perturbation theory, and energy decomposition analysis, allow for an intuitive understanding of complex molecular interactions. We review these methods by first providing a historical context for the study of many-body interactions and discussing how nonadditivities emerge from Hamiltonians containing strictly pairwise-additive interactions. We then elaborate on the synergy between these interaction analysis techniques and the development of advanced force fields aimed at accurately reproducing the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In particular, we focus on ab initio–based force fields that aim to explicitly reproduce many-body terms and are fitted to high-level electronic structure results. These force fields generally incorporate many-body effects through ( a) parameterization of distributed multipoles, ( b) explicit fitting of the MBE, ( c) inclusion of many-atom features in a neural network, and ( d) coarse-graining of many-body terms into an effective two-body term. We also discuss the emerging use of the MBE to improve the accuracy and speed of ab initio molecular dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

An analysis of Bayesian estimates for missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

With current high precision collider data, the reliable estimation of theoretical uncertainties due to missing higher orders (MHOs) in perturbation theory has become a pressing issue for collider phenomenology. Traditionally, the size of the MHOs is estimated through scale variation, a simple but ad hoc method without probabilistic interpretation. Bayesian approaches provide a compelling alternative to estimate the size of the MHOs, but it is not clear how to interpret the perturbative scales, like the factorisation and renormalisation scales, in a Bayesian framework. Recently, it was proposed that the scales can be incorporated as hidden parameters into a Bayesian model. In this paper, we thoroughly scrutinise Bayesian approaches to MHO estimation and systematically study the performance of different models on an extensive set of high-order calculations. We extend the framework in two significant ways. First, we define a new model that allows for asymmetric probability distributions. Second, we introduce a prescription to incorporate information on perturbative scales without interpreting them as hidden model parameters. We clarify how the two scale prescriptions bias the result towards specific scale choice, and we discuss and compare different Bayesian MHO estimates among themselves and to the traditional scale variation approach. Finally, we provide a practical prescription of how existing perturbative results at the standard scale variation points can be converted to 68%/95% credibility intervals in the Bayesian approach using the new public code MiHO.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Search for Low W 0

The magnitude of the vacuum expectation value of the Gukov-Vafa-Witten superpotential |W o | plays a central role in the phenomenology of type IIB flux compactifications. Recent analytical constructions have shown that perturbatively flat vacua can be used to obtain very low values of |W o |. We present systematic algorithms to carry out exhaustive numerical searches for such vacua. Here we also analyse them in the statistical context, as part of the entire ensemble of type IIB flux vacua at low |W o |. Our preliminary analysis indicates that these perturbatively flat vacua are statistically sparse in the whole set of vacua at low |W o | as calculated by Denef and Douglas. Two-moduli examples are used to illustrate these more general findings in specific settings. We find that these simple (two moduli) cases are good examples for existence proofs but they do not feature a large statistical tuning freedom for phenomenological applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

An ideal MHD δW stability analysis that bypasses the Newcomb equation

In the following work, we demonstrate the efficacy of a Riccati δW ideal MHD stability analysis that bypasses the numerically intractable integration of the Newcomb equation. By transforming the linear Newcomb equation into a quadratic Riccati equation, an accurate and equivalent δW analysis is performed that is shown to enjoy some numerical advantages. Additionally, we demonstrate that the Riccati approach is better conditioned than its Newcomb counterpart at the magnetic axis, and we apply dynamical systems insights to examine its behavior at singular points. We further discuss the constraints involved in solving for the extremal admissible perturbations of a δW analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Realistic and High Fidelity Models for Nuclear Reactor Power Synthesis Simulation with Self-Powered Neutron Detectors

As presented in this report, a weighting function–based inferencing method is being applied to synthesize the power distribution in next-generation and university research reactors based on simulated self power neutron detector (SPND) responses. The overall goal is to assess the impacts of sensor uncertainty and true power distribution perturbations on the error in the synthesized power distribution. Regarding sensor uncertainty, the NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) and the Westinghouse AP1000 serve as testbeds for analyzing the impact of varying the sensor uncertainty, as well as varying the number of sensors per sensor string in the reactor core. The reactor models are informed by Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) neutron flux tallies. For the NuScale SMR and Westinghouse AP1000, the SPND response functions (i.e., the response of the SPNDs to individual segments of fuel) were determined homogeneously. Regarding an analysis of power distribution perturbation detection, the Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor was used as a demonstration case with one particular arrangement of SPNDs; the response functions for this reactor model were determined heterogeneously, making this a uniquely high-fidelity demonstration of perturbation detection. Finally, SPND models generated in the Geometry and Tracking 4 (Geant4) code have been generated and tested for comparison with traditionally implemented analytical SPND models, with the intent for Geant4 integration with the full methodological framework. SPND current outputs as a function of distance from some fuel assembly segment in the NuScale SMR are compared with the analytically determined currents. Results from the sensor uncertainty simulations for the NuScale SMR and AP1000 indicate that the average error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level is reasonably low, being slightly less than the random uncertainty applied to all respective SPNDs in both cores. For example, if all SPNDs in the core have a random uncertainty of 5%, then the corresponding fuel assembly segment level error (i.e. difference between the true and inferred local power) is ~2–3%. However, the maximum error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level can be considerably high (>15%) when SPND random uncertainties start to exceed ~3%. In general, the average and maximum errors in the inferred power distribution were slightly higher in the AP1000 as opposed to the NuScale SMR for the sensor string configurations considered herein. Another result determined from analysis of the sensor uncertainty simulations was that increasing the number of SPNDs per string does not clearly reduce inferred power distribution error and can in fact make the error large in some cases; however, this assessment may skewed due to imposed iteration limits. Results from the perturbation detection demonstration using the high-fidelity TAMU TRIGA model indicate that, given the arrangement of 17 SPND strings and 4 SPNDs per string considered herein, there is a clear, provable ability to infer a localized Gaussian-type peak perturbation in the 3D power distribution. Such a perturbation was detected with an average fuel assembly segment level error of 0.19%, and the general visualization of the detected perturbation clearly indicates that the magnitude and shape were appropriately resolved. Finally, the electrical current output generated by the Geant4 modeled SPND indicates significant magnitude differences than the analytically modeled SPND, demonstrating the need for accurate SPND models which account for finite sensor geometry effects to inform the power synthesis work described herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quasinormal Coupled-Mode Analysis of Dynamic Gain in Exceptional-Point Lasers

One of the key features of lasers operating near exceptional points (EPs) is that the gain medium can support an oscillating population inversion above a pump threshold, leading to self-modulated laser dynamics. This unusual behavior opens up new possibilities for frequency comb generation and temporal modulation. However, the dynamic population inversion couples signals with different frequencies and is difficult to capture using conventional temporal coupled-mode theory (TCMT) based on stationary saturable gain. In this paper, we develop a perturbative coupled-mode analysis framework to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of near-EP lasers. By decomposing discrete frequency generation into multiple excitations of resonant modes, our analysis establishes a minimal physical model that translates the local distribution of dynamic population-inversion into a resonant modal interpretation of laser gain. Furthermore, this work enables the exploration of unique properties in this self-time-modulated systems, such as time-varying scattering and nonreciprocal transmission.

Absorption↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effective field theory factorization for diffraction

We derive a factorization formula for coherent and incoherent ep diffraction using the soft collinear effective theory, utilizing multiple power expansion parameters to handle different kinematic regions. This goes beyond the known hard-collinear diffractive factorization to address the small-x Regge dynamics and Pomeron exchange from first principles. The effective field theory analysis also uncovers and factorizes an important irreducible incoherent background generated by color-nonsinglet exchange, dubbed “quasi-diffraction”, for which we calculate the associated Sudakov suppression. For unpolarized scattering we show that there are four diffractive structure functions at leading power, and point out the importance of studying ${F}_{3,4}^D$ through asymmetries, in addition to ${F}_{2,L}^D$. For the quasi-diffractive background, we make model independent predictions for ratios of the corresponding structure functions in a perturbative kinematic region. Our analysis also makes predictions for six leading-power spin-dependent structure functions. Finally, we provide connections to diffractive parton distributions, and assess the Ingelman-Schlein model. Our work lays a path for further QCD-based studies of diffraction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D high-fidelity automated neutronics guided optimization of fusion blanket designs

The compact Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) is defined in the recent National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report as the next step of fusion energy demonstration with a $50$ MWe peak net electricity production, $Q_e$ greater than $1$, and at least $3$ hours of continuous operation. This fusion pilot plant will be a test bed enabling materials, designs, and fuel management assessment, and it will represent an engineering challenge because of its high-fusion power and compact design targets. Previous reactor data is limited to experiments operating in different design space ranges. Therefore, design iterations and assessments should rely on high-fidelity first-principle theoretical and computational models. The high-fidelity integrated modeling of the plasma is a fundamental part of fusion energy research. However, the whole device modeling is often neglected, utilizing low-fidelity, system-level analysis. Recently, the need for high-fidelity multi-physics modeling was recognized, resulting in a selection of integrated tools. Further, autonomous design optimization requires a streamlined framework that perturbs the design point, reruns the analysis, and examines the outputs. However, high-fidelity analysis requires complex geometry specification that is difficult to perturb. This work presents the parametric CAD generation tool TRACER and a new neutronic workflow. TRACER allows the perturbation of the geometry representation, creating geometry files ready for further analysis. The streamlined neutronic workflow allows efficient and accurate calculations. The two new tools coupled together were used to perform a 3D high-fidelity multi-objective, multi-input optimization of an "ARC Class" compact tokamak design. The workflow was driven by an optimization driver for full automation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Tibetan Plateau sensible heat on pre-monsoon dust burdens over South Asia: Observational and modeling evidence

Tibetan Plateau sensible heating (TPSH) effect is recognized as a key driver of the South Asian climate; however its role in regulating the regional dust burdens over South Asia during the pre-monsoon season remains unclear. Using long-term reanalysis and/or observational dust and TPSH data, we show that the dust optical depth at 550 nm (DOD 550 ) over South Asia is significantly positively correlated with TPSH at the interannual scale. DOD 550 over South Asia increases (decreases) by 20 % (12 %) in the strongest (weakest) TPSH years. The phenomenon of TPSH-dust relationships is reinforced by sensitivity experiments by altering TPSH from global climate models. Further mechanism analysis reveals that TPSH perturbation induces regional circulation anomalies over South Asia, which features a low-tropospheric cyclonic response around the Tibetan Plateau. This cyclonic anomaly strengthens the prevailing northwesterly winds, increasing regional dust emissions and transportation over South Asia. This novel mechanism helps understand the South Asian dust change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe↗
DOE OSTI2020

Self-consistent theory of the Darrieus–Landau and Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities with self-generated magnetic fields

The Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) and Darrieus–Landau (DL) instabilities are studied in an inertial confinement fusion context within the framework of small critical-to-shell density ratio D R and weak acceleration regime, i.e., large Froude number Fr. The quasi-isobaric analysis in Sanz et al. is completed with the inclusion of non-isobaric and self-generated magnetic-field effects. The analysis is restricted to perturbation wavelengths k~1 larger than the conduction length scale at the ablation front, yet its validity ranges from wavelengths shorter and larger than the conduction layer width (distance between the ablation front and the critical surface). The use of a sharp boundary model leads to a single analytical expression of the dispersion relation encompassing both instabilities. The two new effects come into play by modifying the perturbed mass and momentum fluxes at the ablation front. The momentum flux (perturbed pressure at the spike) is the predominant stabilizing mechanism in the RT instability (overpressure) and the driving mechanism in the DL instability (underpressure). The non-isobaric effects notably modify the scaling laws in the DL limit, leading to an underpressure scaling as ~k –11/15 rather than ~k –2/5 obtained in the quasi-isobaric model. The magnetic fields are generated due to misalignment between pressure and density gradients (Biermann battery effect). They affect the hydrodynamics by bending the heat flux lines. Within the framework of this paper, they enhance ablation, resulting in a stabilizing effect that peaks for perturbation wavelengths comparable to the conduction layer width. Here, the combination of parameters D R Fr 2/3 defines the region of predominance of each instability in the dispersion relation. It is proven that the DL region falls outside of the parameter range in inertial confinement fusion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Separability of microtearing mode and electron temperature gradient turbulence regimes

The separability of microtearing mode (MTM)-dominated and electron temperature gradient (ETG)-driven turbulence regimes is studied with multiscale nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. The simulations are based on National Spherical Torus Experiment-like, high-confinement mode pedestal parameters, where electromagnetic perturbations are large. Linear analysis indicates a wide scale-separation between the MTM and ETG modes in binormal wavenumber space (perpendicular to the magnetic field line), with no unstable modes at intermediate scales. Likewise, single-scale nonlinear analyses, retaining ion-only or electron-only spatio-temporal scales, produce seemingly well-converged transport states. Surprisingly, the multiscale simulation, which contains both the ion and electron scales, closely follows the transport from the electron-scale simulation. This trend is robust over a wide range of electron temperature gradient. Remarkably, compared to ion-scale simulations, MTM turbulence is significantly reduced at multiscale resolution even when ETG turbulence is low. In this case, traditional ion-scale resolution overestimates the electron energy flux, and it is not possible to accurately simulate the MTM turbulence with separable ion-scale simulations. Here, while the analysis confirms the validity of electron-scale simulations for predicting the electron transport, it also indicates that multiscale simulation may be required for reproducing the turbulence spectrum for systems with coupled MTM-ETG turbulence.

H-mode↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on S 8 from a full-scale and full-shape analysis of redshift-space clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in BOSS

ABSTRACT We present a novel simulation-based cosmological analysis of galaxy–galaxy lensing and galaxy redshift-space clustering. Compared to analysis methods based on perturbation theory, our simulation-based approach allows us to probe a much wider range of scales, $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ to $63 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$, including highly non-linear scales, and marginalizes over astrophysical effects such as assembly bias. We apply this framework to data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey LOWZ sample cross-correlated with state-of-the-art gravitational lensing catalogues from the Kilo Degree Survey and the Dark Energy Survey. We show that gravitational lensing and redshift-space clustering when analysed over a large range of scales place tight constraints on the growth-of-structure parameter $S_8 = \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m} / 0.3}$. Overall, we infer S8 = 0.792 ± 0.022 when analysing the combination of galaxy–galaxy lensing and projected galaxy clustering and S8 = 0.771 ± 0.027 for galaxy redshift-space clustering. These findings highlight the potential constraining power of full-scale studies over studies analysing only large scales and also showcase the benefits of analysing multiple large-scale structure surveys jointly. Our inferred values for S8 fall below the value inferred from the CMB, S8 = 0.834 ± 0.016. While this difference is not statistically significant by itself, our results mirror other findings in the literature whereby low-redshift large-scale structure probes infer lower values for S8 than the CMB, the so-called S8-tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The temperature-dependent conformational ensemble of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M pro )

The COVID-19 pandemic, instigated by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, continues to plague the globe. The SARS-CoV-2 main protease, or M pro , is a promising target for the development of novel antiviral therapeutics. Previous X-ray crystal structures of M pro were obtained at cryogenic temperature or room temperature only. Here we report a series of high-resolution crystal structures of unliganded M pro across multiple temperatures from cryogenic to physiological, and another at high humidity. We interrogate these data sets with parsimonious multiconformer models, multi-copy ensemble models, and isomorphous difference density maps. Our analysis reveals a perturbation-dependent conformational landscape for M pro , including a mobile zinc ion interleaved between the catalytic dyad, mercurial conformational heterogeneity at various sites including a key substrate-binding loop, and a far-reaching intramolecular network bridging the active site and dimer interface. Our results may inspire new strategies for antiviral drug development to aid preparation for future coronavirus pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Invisible QCD as Dark Energy

We account for the late time acceleration of the Universe by extending the Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) color to a SU(3) invisible sector (IQCD). If the Invisible Chiral symmetry is broken in the early universe, a condensate of dark pions (dpions) and dark gluons (dgluons) forms. The condensate naturally forms due to strong dynamics similar to the Nambu–Jona-Lasinio mechanism. As the Universe evolves from early times to present times the interaction energy between the dgluon and dpion condensate dominates with a negative pressure equation of state and causes late time acceleration. We conclude with a stability analysis of the coupled perturbations of the dark pions and dark gluons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗