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Application of remotely sensed land-use information to improve estimates of streamflow characteristics, volume 8

The author has identified the following significant results. Land use data derived from high altitude photography and satellite imagery were studied for 49 basins in Delaware, and eastern Maryland and Virginia. Applying multiple regression techniques to a network of gaging stations monitoring runoff from 39 of the basins, demonstrated that land use data from high altitude photography provided an effective means of significantly improving estimates of stream flow. Forty stream flow characteristic equations for incorporating remotely sensed land use information, were compared with a control set of equations using map derived land cover. Significant improvement was detected in six equations where level 1 data was added and in five equations where level 2 information was utilized. Only four equations were improved significantly using land use data derived from LANDSAT imagery. Significant losses in accuracy due to the use of remotely sensed land use information were detected only in estimates of flood peaks. Losses in accuracy for flood peaks were probably due to land cover changes associated with temporal differences among the primary land use data sources.

Pluhowski, E. J.↗

A summary of whistlers observed by Voyager 1 at Jupiter

We summarize the Voyager 1 observations of whistlers at Jupiter in order to provide a basis for further analyses of the density profile of the Io plasma torus as well as to support studies of atmospheric lightning at Jupiter. All the whistlers detected by Voyager 1 fell into three general regions in the torus at radial distances ranging beteen 5 and 6 R sub J. An analysis of the broadband wave amplitudes measured by the Voyayer 1 plasma wave instrument and estimates of the peak whistler amplitudes imply the grouping of whistlers was due to variations in the sensitivity of the receiver to whistlers and not to variations in the source or propagation paths of the whistlers. The whistler dispersions are presented in statistical form for each of the three groups of events and analyzed in view of the structure of the Io plasma torus as determined by plasma probe measurements. The results of these analyses give source locations for the whistlers at the foot of the magnetic field lines threading the torus in both hemispheres and over a range of longitudes.

Kurth, W. S.↗

Measurements of the composition of aerosol component of Venusian atmosphere with Vega 1 lander, preliminary data

Preliminary investigation of mass spectra of gaseous products of pyrolyzed Venusian cloud particles collected and analyzed by the complex device of mass-spectrometer and collector pyrolyzer on board Vega 1 lander revealed the presence of heavy particles in the upper cloud layer. Based on 64 amu peak (SO2+), an estimate of the lower limit of the sulfuric acid aerosol content at the 62 to 54 km heights of approximately 2.0 mg/cu m is obtained. A chlorine line (35 and 37 amu) is also present in the mass spectrum with a lower limit of the chlorine concentration of approximately 0.3 mg/ cu m.

Surkov, Y. A.↗

The propagation speed of a positive lightning return stroke

The first direct determination of the propagation speed of a lightning return stroke lowering positive charge to ground has been made. This stroke was the third of eight otherwise negative strokes in a triggered lightning flash initiated at the Kennedy Space Center, FL. Two independent optical systems, one photographic and the other photoelectric, yielded common recordings for the third and fourth strokes; the respective two-dimensional return stroke propagation speeds were 1.0 vs 0.93 x 10 to the 8th m/s for the positive (third) stroke and 1.0 vs 1.0 x 10 to the 8th m/s for the fourth stroke. Using fast electric-field data, the positive stroke peak current was estimated to be 21 kA. Photoelectric data only yielded propagation speeds of 1.4, 1.6, 1.2, 1.3, 1.0 and 0.90 x 10 to the 8th m/s for the first, second and fifth through eighth return strokes, respectively.

Idone, Vincent P.↗

Peat analyses in the Hudson Bay Lowlands using ground penetrating radar

The use of ground penetrating radar (GPR) as a means to determine peak thickness and estimate peat volume in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Canada is examined. Ground-based and airborne GPR data were acquired so as to extrapolate measurements to larger scales. While the ground-based measurements did an excellent job in determining peat depth, the airborne techniques did a fair job a low altitudes and demonstrated great promise with additional system engineering changes.

Pelletier, R. E.↗

Rotordynamics on the PC: Further Capabilities of ARDS

Rotordynamics codes for personal computers are now becoming available. One of the most capable codes is Analysis of RotorDynamic Systems (ARDS) which uses the component mode synthesis method to analyze a system of up to 5 rotating shafts. ARDS was originally written for a mainframe computer but has been successfully ported to a PC; its basic capabilities for steady-state and transient analysis were reported in an earlier paper. Additional functions have now been added to the PC version of ARDS. These functions include: 1) Estimation of the peak response following blade loss without resorting to a full transient analysis; 2) Calculation of response sensitivity to input parameters; 3) Formulation of optimum rotor and damper designs to place critical speeds in desirable ranges or minimize bearing loads; 4) Production of Poincard plots so the presence of chaotic motion can be ascertained. ARDS produces printed and plotted output. The executable code uses the full array sizes of the mainframe version and fits on a high density floppy disc. Examples of all program capabilities are presented and discussed.

Fleming, David P.↗

Abstracts for the 2002 Meeting of the AIAA Working Group on Dynamic Space Simulation

Undersampling is sometimes used in order to save memory and reducing digitizing speed requirements for pyroshock data. Many interpolation techniques have been used to estimate the missing peaks due undersampling. The more exotic techniques may not work well when real data that contains noise is used as an input. Various peak interpolation techniques will be evaluated using noisy data in this presentation.

Simpson, Alda D.↗

High-Pressure Minerals in Meteorites: Constraints on Shock Conditions and Duration

The objective of this research was to better understand the conditions and duration of shock metamorphism in meteorites through microstructural and microanalytical characterization of high-pressure minerals. A) Continue to investigate the mineralogy and microstructures of melt-veins in a suite of chondritic samples ranging from shock grades S3 through S6 to determine how the mineral assemblages that crystallize at high-pressure and are related to shock grade. B) Investigate the chemical, mineralogical, and microstructural heterogeneities that occur across melt veins to interpret crystallization histories. C) Use static high-pressure experiments to simulate crystallization of melt veins for mineralogical and textural comparisons with the melt veins of naturally shocked samples. D) Characterize the compositions and defect microstructures of polycrystalline ringwoodite, wadsleyite, majorite, (Mg,Fe)Si03-ilmenite and (Mg,Fe)SiO3-perovskite in S6 samples to understand the mechanisms of phase transformations that occur during shock. These results will combined with kinetic data to constrain the time scales of kinetic processes. E) Investigate the transformations of metastable high-pressure minerals back to low- pressure forms to constrain post-shock temperatures and estimates of the peak shock pressure. Of these objectives, we have obtained publishable data on A, B and D. I am currently doing difficult high-pressure melting and quench experiments on an L chondrite known as Mbale. These experiments will provide additional constraints on the mineral assemblages that are produced during rapid quench of an L chondrite at pressures of 16 to 25 GPa. Results from published or nearly published research is presented below. Lists of theses, dissertations and publications are given below.

Sharp, Thomas G.↗

On the Positive Bias of Peak Horizontal Velocity from an Idealized Doppler Profiler

In the presence of 3-D turbulence, peak horizontal velocity estimates from an idealized Doppler profiler are found to be positively biased due to an incomplete specification of the vertical velocity field. The magnitude of the bias was estimated by assuming that the vertical and horizontal velocities can be separated into average and perturbation values and that the vertical and horizontal velocity perturbations are normally distributed. Under these assumptions, properties of the Type-I Extreme Value Distribution for maxima, known as the Gumbel distribution, can be used to obtain an analytical solution of the bias. The bias depends on geometric properties of the profiler configuration, the variance in the horizontal velocity, and the unresolved variance in the vertical velocity. When these variances are normalized by the average horizontal velocity, the bias can be mapped as a simple function of the normalized variances.

Short, David A.↗

Investigation of TM Band-to-band Registration Using the JSC Registration Processor

The JSC registration processor performs scene-to-scene (or band-to-band) correlation based on edge images. The edge images are derived from a percentage of the edge pixels calculated from the raw scene data, excluding clouds and other extraneous data in the scene. Correlations are performed on patches (blocks) of the edge images, and the correlation peak location in each patch is estimated iteratively to fractional pixel location accuracy. Peak offset locations from all patches over the scene are then considered together, and a variety of tests are made to weed out outliers and other inconsistencies before a distortion model is assumed. Thus, the correlation peak offset locations in each patch indicate quantitatively how well the two TM bands register to each other over that patch of scene data. The average of these offsets indicate the overall accuracies of the band-to-band registration. The registration processor was also used to register one acquisition to another acquisition of multitemporal TM data acquired over the same ground track. Band 4 images from both acquisitions were correlated and an rms error of a fraction of a pixel was routinely obtained.

Yao, S. S.↗

Discovery of Thermonuclear (Type 1) X-ray Bursts in the X-ray Binary Swift J1858.6-0814 Observed with NICER and NuSTAR

Swift J1858.6–0814 is a recently discovered X-ray binary notable for extremely strong variability (by factors of >100 in soft X-rays) in its discovery state. We present the detection of five thermonuclear (Type I) X-ray bursts from Swift J1858.6–0814, implying that the compact object in the system is a neutron star (NS). Some of the bursts show photospheric radius expansion, so their peak flux can be used to estimate the distance to the system. The peak luminosity, and hence distance, can depend on several system parameters; for the most likely values, a high inclination and a helium atmosphere, D = 12.8+0.8−0.6 kpc, although systematic effects allow a conservative range of 9–18 kpc. Before one burst, we detect a QPO at 9.6 ± 0.5 mHz with a fractional rms amplitude of 2.2 ± 0.2 per cent (0.5–10 keV), likely due to marginally stable burning of helium; similar oscillations may be present before the other bursts but the light curves are not long enough to allow their detection. We also search for burst oscillations but do not detect any, with an upper limit in the best case of 15 per cent fractional amplitude (over 1–8 keV). Finally, we discuss the implications of the NS accretor and this distance on other inferences which have been made about the system. In particular, we find that Swift J1858.6–0814 was observed at super-Eddington luminosities at least during bright flares during the variable stage of its outburst.

D J K Buisson↗

A method for modelling peak signal statistics on a mobile satellite transponder

A simulation method is proposed. The simulation was developed to model the peak duration and energy content of signal peaks in a mobile communication satellite operating in a Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) mode and presents an estimate of those power peaks for a system where the channels are modeled as band limited Gaussian noise, which is taken as a reasonable representation for Amplitude Commanded Single Sideband (ACSSB), Minimum Shift Keying (MSK), or Phase Shift Keying (PSK) modulated signals. The simulation results show that, under this hypothesis, the level of the signal power peaks for 10 percent, 1 percent, and 0.1 percent of the time are well described by a Rayleigh law and that their duration is extremely short and inversely proportional to the total FDM system bandwidth.

Bilodeau, Andre↗

Analysis and Interpretation of Synthetic Time Strings of Oscillation Data

Artificial strings of solar oscillation data with gaps and noise, corresponding to the output of different spatial filter functions, were analyzed. Peaks in the power spectrum are identified for values of the degree l from 0 to 18, and rotational splitting is estimated. The filters prove effective in facilitating identification of essentially all the real peaks in the power spectrum. Estimates of peak frequencies and amplitudes and rotational splitting frequencies are in reasonably good agreement with the input values. Spurious peaks in autocorrelation spectra correspond to the frequency spacing between power peaks with the same order n, differing by one or two in the degree l.

Mihalas, B. W.↗

The Activity Profiles and Peak Flux of Radar Meteor Showers

Meteor showers are transient phenomena; a limited duration is what distinguishes a shower from a sporadic source. They do not, however, have clear start and end times; instead, shower activity gradually (or rapidly) increases over time, reaches a peak, and then decays. In this report, we examine the activity profiles of 38 meteor showers using 20 years of single-station shower fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). We find that a number of showers, such as the Southern delta Aquariids (SDAs), exhibit a broad maximum in activity rather than a sharp peak. We also find that approximately one-third of showers exhibit asymmetric activity profiles in which the rate in which activity rises prior to the peak differs from the rate at which it decays after the peak. We provide a functional form for meteor shower activity profiles that incorporates these features and use these profile fits to estimate each shower’s peak flux. This report also includes an uncertainty analysis for CMOR fluxes. This includes the first (to our knowledge) characterization of systematic uncertainty in radar meteor fluxes.

A V Moorhead↗

Analysis and Assessment of Peak Lightning Current Probabilities at the NASA Kennedy Space Center

This technical memorandum presents a summary by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch at the Marshall Space Flight Center of lightning characteristics and lightning criteria for the protection of aerospace vehicles. Probability estimates are included for certain lightning strikes (peak currents of 200, 100, and 50 kA) applicable to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, during rollout, on-pad, and boost/launch phases. Results of an extensive literature search to compile information on this subject are presented in order to answer key questions posed by the Space Shuttle Program Office at the Johnson Space Center concerning peak lightning current probabilities if a vehicle is hit by a lightning cloud-to-ground stroke. Vehicle-triggered lightning probability estimates for the aforementioned peak currents are still being worked. Section 4.5, however, does provide some insight on estimating these same peaks.

Johnson, D. L.↗

Completion of the Edward Air Force Base Statistical Guidance Wind Tool

The goal of this task was to develop a GUI using EAFB wind tower data similar to the KSC SLF peak wind tool that is already in operations at SMG. In 2004, MSFC personnel began work to replicate the KSC SLF tool using several wind towers at EAFB. They completed the analysis and QC of the data, but due to higher priority work did not start development of the GUI. MSFC personnel calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of 10-minute peak wind occurrence based on the 2-minute average wind speed for several EAFB wind towers. Once the data were QC'ed and analyzed the climatologies were calculated following the methodology outlined in Lambert (2003). The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and then were stratified by hour, direction (10" sectors), and direction (45" sectors)/hour. For all climatologies, MSFC calculated the mean, standard deviation and observation counts of the Zminute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds. MSFC personnel also calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds using PDFs. The empirical PDFs were asymmetrical and bounded on the left by the 2- minute average wind speed. They calculated the parametric PDFs by fitting the GEV distribution to the empirical distributions. Parametric PDFs were calculated in order to smooth and interpolate over variations in the observed values due to possible under-sampling of certain peak winds and to estimate probabilities associated with average winds outside the observed range. MSFC calculated the individual probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds by integrating the area under each curve. The probabilities assist SMG forecasters in assessing the shuttle FR for various Zminute average wind speeds. The A M ' obtained the processed EAFB data from Dr. Lee Bums of MSFC and reformatted them for input to Excel PivotTables, which allow users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUI was created from the PivotTables using VBA code. It is run through a macro within Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and probabilities in a fast-paced operational environment. The GUI was designed to look and operate exactly the same as the KSC SLF tool since SMG forecasters were already familiar with that product. SMG feedback was continually incorporated into the GUI ensuring the end product met their needs. The final version of the GUI along with all climatologies, PDFs, and probabilities has been delivered to SMG and will be put into operational use.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗

Preliminary evaluation of the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan crop calendar shift algorithm for estimation of spring wheat development stage

An algorithm for estimating spectral crop calendar shifts of spring small grains was applied to 1978 spring wheat fields. The algorithm provides estimates of the date of peak spectral response by maximizing the cross correlation between a reference profile and the observed multitemporal pattern of Kauth-Thomas greenness for a field. A methodology was developed for estimation of crop development stage from the date of peak spectral response. Evaluation studies showed that the algorithm provided stable estimates with no geographical bias. Crop development stage estimates had a root mean square error near 10 days. The algorithm was recommended for comparative testing against other models which are candidates for use in AgRISTARS experiments.

Phinney, D. E.↗

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Schatten, Kenneth↗