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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Field-aligned currents and large-scale magnetospheric electric fields

The existence of field-aligned currents (FAC) at northern and southern high latitudes was confirmed by a number of observations, most clearly by experiments on the TRIAD and ISIS 2 satellites. The high-latitude FAC system is used to relate what is presently known about the large-scale pattern of high-latitude ionospheric electric fields and their relation to solar wind parameters. Recently a simplified model was presented for polar cap electric fields. The model is of considerable help in visualizing the large-scale features of FAC systems. A summary of the FAC observations is given. The simplified model is used to visualize how the FAC systems are driven by their generators.

Dangelo, N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultrafast optical melting of trimer superstructure in layered 1T′-TaTe2

Abstract Quasi-two-dimensional transition-metal dichalcogenides are a key platform for exploring emergent nanoscale phenomena arising from complex interactions. Access to the underlying degrees-of-freedom on their natural time scales motivates the use of advanced ultrafast probes sensitive to self-organised atomic-scale patterns. Here, we report the ultrafast investigation of TaTe 2 , which exhibits unique charge and lattice trimer order characterised by a transition upon cooling from stripe-like chains into a (3 × 3) superstructure of trimer clusters. Utilising MeV-scale ultrafast electron diffraction, we capture the photo-induced TaTe 2 structural dynamics – exposing a rapid ≈ 1.4 ps melting of its low-temperature ordered state followed by recovery via thermalisation into a hot cluster superstructure. Density-functional calculations indicate that the initial quench is triggered by intra-trimer Ta charge transfer which destabilises the clusters, unlike melting of charge density waves in other TaX 2 compounds. Our work paves the way for further exploration and ultimately rapid optical and electronic manipulation of trimer superstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Compliance in an Epidemiological Model: Constructs from Psychological Theory and Research

Vaccination and the alternative behavior, vaccine refusal, are a classic example of manifesting behaviors driven by social norms and norm violations. Establishing how norms emerge, and under what circumstances people choose to violate them are key issues to understand in modeling epidemics. Interactions between individuals can lead to large-scale patterning of behavior (emergent phenomena). As norm violations are revealed through human behavior, drawing on psychological theory and principles to predict those violations is a viable approach for more human-constrained epidemiological models. As an example of the implications at scale, vaccine refusal is correlated with the spread of mis/disinformation about vaccine side-effects. Considering the complexities of network dynamics, the downstream effects means that if even a small group within a population are persuaded against vaccination, there is a reservoir from which disease and disease outbreaks can propagate. This work will attempt to identify those psychological indicators, to define circumstances that predict health behaviors, and identify potentially modifiable antecedents of health behavior, and factors that influence changes toward health protective behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of regional-scale vegetation dynamics of Mexico using stratified AVHRR NDVI data

Previous studies have shown that a good relationship exists between AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measurements, and both regional-scale patterns of vegetation seasonality and productivity. Most of these studies used known samples of vegetation types. An alternative approach, and the objective was to examine the above relationships by analyzing one year of AVHRR NDVI data that was stratified using a small-scale vegetation map of Mexico. The results show that there is a good relationship between AVHRR NDVI measurements and regional-scale vegetation dynamics of Mexico.

Turcotte, Kevin M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Past and present disturbances generate spatial variation in seed predation

Seed survival is a key process for plant populations; variation in the activity and abundance of animals that consume seeds can lead to dramatic shifts in seed fate. Because granivores may respond to contemporary disturbance as well as to enduring changes in habitats caused by past disturbances, understanding seed fate requires studies capable of evaluating how past and present disturbances modify granivore communities, foraging activity, and ultimately, seed predation. Historic agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting are widespread disturbances that could generate large-scale patterns of seed fate by modifying environmental characteristics that determine granivore identity and behavior. Here, to evaluate whether land-use history and canopy harvesting affect seed–animal interactions, we conducted an experiment distributed across 80,000 ha of longleaf pine woodlands that coupled large-scale canopy harvesting at seven 4-ha sites containing both post-agricultural land use and nonagricultural land use in South Carolina, United States. We deployed a total of 28,000 nail-tagged seeds and recovered the tags to quantify seed fate. Past agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting interacted to affect the rate of seed predation. Seed predation rates in harvested sites depended on land-use history: Seed predation was 30% lower in post-agricultural plots than in nonagricultural plots. This interaction was driven by the differential effect of land-use history and canopy harvesting on rodent activity. Camera traps revealed that Sigmodon hispidus only foraged in harvested plots and was most active in nonagricultural plots. In harvested plots, seed removal increased with S. hispidus activity. In unharvested plots, seed removal increased with Sciurus niger activity, but S. niger was not affected by land-use history. In finding that land-use history and canopy harvesting determine the outcomes of seed–animal interactions, we show that understanding patterns of seed predation is contingent upon the interplay of disturbances in both the distant past and recent past. These results suggest that patterns of past land use and present land use may help reconcile the considerable variation in seed fate observed in ecological communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Synoptic conditions producing cirrus during the FIRE cirrus IFO

Although direct observations of cirrus clouds by the FIRE research aircraft were usually confined to the area of Intensive Field Observation (IFO) surface network, these cirrus were generally part of a more extensive zone of upper level cloudiness. It is these large scale patterns of cirriform cloud and their relationship to the corresponding synoptic environment which are the prime focus. Three conceptual models are presented and each of the individual cases are classified into one of these categories. Although the cases manifest significant differences in intensity and small scale structure, it is believed that they are best viewed in this unified context. The descriptions given are mostly qualitative, however, quantitative descriptions of the synoptic control and its relationship to cloud structure for all the IFO cases are summarized. The synoptic situations in which extensive cirriform clouds were observed are classified into three basic types: warm front cases, cold front cases, and closed low aloft cases. A simplified summary of each type of situation is presented.

Starr, David OC.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic programming for understanding cognitive biases that generate polarization in social networks

Recent studies have applied agent-based models to infer human-interpretable explanations of individual-scale behaviors that generate macro-scale patterns in complex social systems. Genetic programming has proven to be an ideal explainable AI tool for this purpose, where primitives may be expressed in an interpretable fashion and assembled into agent rules. Evolutionary model discovery (EMD) is a tool that combines genetic programming and random forest feature importance analysis, to infer individual-scale, human-interpretable explanations from agent-based models. We deploy EMD to investigate the cognitive biases behind the emergence of ideological polarization within a population. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a social network, where agents are able to create or sever links with one another, and update an internal ideological stance based on their neighbors' stances. Agent rules govern these actions and constitute of cognitive biases. A set of 7 cognitive biases are included as genetic program primitives in the search for rules that generate hyper-polarization among the population of agents. We find that heterogeneity in cognitive biases is more likely to generate polarized social networks. Highly polarized social networks are likely to emerge when individuals with confirmation bias are exposed to those with either attentional bias, egocentric bias, or cognitive dissonance.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).

Coupled Models↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Arctic Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Relation of major volcanic center concentration on Venus to global tectonic patterns

Global analysis of Magellan image data indicates that a major concentration of volcanic centers covering about 40 percent of the surface of Venus occurs between the Beta, Atla, and Themis regions. Associated with this enhanced concentration are geological characteristics commonly interpreted as rifting and mantle upwelling. Interconnected low plains in an annulus around this concentration are characterized by crustal shortening and infrequent volcanic centers that may represent sites of mantle return flow and net downwelling. Together, these observations suggest the existence of relatively simple, large-scale patterns of mantle circulation similar to those associated with concentrations of intraplate volcanism on earth.

Crumpler, L. S.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Large-scale negative polarity magnetic fields on the sun and particle-emitting flares

Some observational facts about the large-scale patterns formed by solar negative polarity magnetic fields during the 19th and 20th cycles of solar activity are presented. The close relation of the position of occurrence of very large flares accompanied by cosmic ray and PCA events as well as other phenomena of solar activity during the declining part of the 19th cycle of the regularities in the internal structure of large scale negative polarity features are demonstrated.

Bumba, V.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation

Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here, in this study, we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Circulation regime-dependent nonlinear interactions during northern hemisphere winter

Data of 500 mb geopotential heights, obtained in Januaries from 1963-1977 are used to study the relationship between the interaction of different scales of motion and the circulation regime characterizing the large-scale pattern. Geostrophic and 500 mb height streamfunctions and energy and enstrophy spectra are computed. Differences in the height variance, kinetic energy, and enstrophy spectra of the large positive anomaly events are compared to normal circulation. Systematic differences in the nonlinear cascading are examined. The data reveal that transient eddies perform a regime-dependent function in the interactions with atmospheric circulation modes on the scale of the persistent anomalies.

Brown, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Features of steady magnetospheric convection

The large-scale patterns of ionospheric convection and particle precipitation are described during two intervals of steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) on November 24, 1981. The unique data set used in the analysis includes recordings from the worldwide network of magnetometers and all-sky cameras, global auroral images from the Dynamics Explorer (DE) 1 spacecraft, and particle precipitation data from low-altitude National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 6 and NOAA 7 spacecraft. The data show that intense magnetospheric convection continued during more than 10 hours under the steady southward interplanetary magnetic field without any distinct substorm signatures. All data sets available confirmed the stable character of the large-scale magnetospheric configuration during this period. In particular, the magnetic flux threading the polar cap was stable (within 10%) during 3.5 hours of continued DE 1 observations. The dayside cusp was located at an unusually low latitude (70 deg CGL). The nightside auroral pattern consisted of two distinct regions. The diffuse aurora in the equatorward half of the expanded (10 deg wide) auroral oval was well-separated from the bright, active auroral forms found in the vicinity of the poleward boundary of the oval. The twin-vortex convection pattern had no signature of the Harang discontinuity; its nightside 'convection throat' was spatially coincident with the poleward active auroras. This region of the auroral oval was identified as the primary site of the short-lived transient activations during the SMC intervals. The energetic particle observations show that the auroral precipitation up to its high-latitude limit is on closed field lines and that particle acceleration up to greater than 30-keV energy starts close to this limit. The isotropic boundaries of the greater than 30-keV protons and electrons were found close to each other, separating regions of discrete and diffuse precipitation. This suggests that these precipitation types originate on the very taillike and very dipolelike field lines, respectively.

Yahnin, A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Peterson, D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Comparisons Between the Distributions of Dust and Combustion Aerosols in MERRA-2, FLEXPART and CALIPSO and Implications for Deposition Freezing Over Wintertime Siberia

Aerosol distributions have a potentially large influence on climate-relevant cloud properties but can be difficult to observe over the Arctic given pervasive cloudiness, long polar nights, data paucity over remote regions, and periodic diamond dust events that satellites can misclassify as aerosol. We compared Arctic 2008–2015 mineral dust and combustion aerosol distributions from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis products, and the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model. Based on coincident, seasonal Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Arctic satellite meteorological data, diamond dust may occur up to 60 % of the time in winter, but it hardly ever occurs in summer. In its absence, MERRA-2 and FLEXPART each predict the vertical and horizontal distribution of large-scale patterns in combustion aerosols with relatively high confidence (Kendall tau rank correlation > 0.6), although a sizable amount of variability is still unaccounted for. They do the same for dust, except in conditions conducive to diamond dust formation where CALIPSO is likely misclassifying diamond dust as mineral dust and near the surface (< ∼ 2 km) where FLEXPART may be overpredicting local dust emissions. Comparisons to ground data suggest that MERRA-2 Arctic dust concentrations can be improved by the addition of local dust sources. All three products predicted that wintertime dust and combustion aerosols occur most frequently over the same Siberian regions where diamond dust is most common in the winter. This suggests that dust aerosol impacts on ice phase processes may be particularly high over Siberia, although further wintertime model validation with non-CALIPSO observations is needed. This assessment paves the way for applying the model-based aerosol simulations to a range of regional-scale Arctic aerosol–cloud interaction studies with greater confidence.

MERRA-2↗
DOE OSTI2022

A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat

The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗