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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Partner with a Third-Party Delivery Service or Not? A Prediction-and-Decision Tool for Restaurants Facing Takeout Demand Surges During a Pandemic

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting data for climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

This data supports the conclusions found in climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics. Included here are (i) the binarized geolocation vectors used for exhaustive vector comparisons, (ii) the resulting climatic networks, (iii) the results of applying Markov clustering to the climatic networks, and (iv) the results of applying Correlation-of-Correlations (cor-cor) to the climatic networks. The set of binarized geolocation vectors that are used as inputs for the Combinatorial Metrics library (CoMet) are of the form comet-UUUUUxVVVVV-XXXX-YYYY.shuffled.tped where UUUUU is the number of vectors, VVVVV is the length of each vector, XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to a geolocation vector of binary elements A (i.e., 0) and T (i.e., 1). The set of climatic networks that are used for downstream network analysis are of the form network-U-way-XXXX-YYYY.parsed.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to an edge linking two geolocations (defined by latitude and longitude) with its corresponding edge weight (i.e., DUO score). The set of cluster results are of the form clusters-U-way-XXXX-YYYY-thresh-VVVV-inflation-WWW.clustered.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, YYYY is the ending year, VVVV is the similarity threshold, and WWW is the Markov clustering inflation rate. Each line corresponds to a single cluster and is composed of a number of corresponding geolocations (defined by latitude and longitude). The set of cor-cor results are of the form corcor-U-way-XXXX-YYYY.cumulative.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to a single geolocation with it's corresponding cor-cor value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-throughput screening of the ReFRAME, Pandemic Box, and COVID Box drug repurposing libraries against SARS-CoV-2 nsp15 endoribonuclease to identify small-molecule inhibitors of viral activity

SARS-CoV-2 has caused a global pandemic, and has taken over 1.7 million lives as of mid-December, 2020. Although great progress has been made in the development of effective countermeasures, with several pharmaceutical companies approved or poised to deliver vaccines to market, there is still an unmet need of essential antiviral drugs with therapeutic impact for the treatment of moderate-to-severe COVID-19. Towards this goal, a high-throughput assay was used to screen SARS-CoV-2 nsp15 uracil-dependent endonuclease (endoU) function against 13 thousand compounds from drug and lead repurposing compound libraries. While over 80% of initial hit compounds were pan-assay inhibitory compounds, three hits were confirmed as nsp15 endoU inhibitors in the 1–20 μM range in vitro. Furthermore, Exebryl-1, a ß-amyloid anti-aggregation molecule for Alzheimer’s therapy, was shown to have antiviral activity between 10 to 66 μM, in Vero 76, Caco-2, and Calu-3 cells. Although the inhibitory concentrations determined for Exebryl-1 exceed those recommended for therapeutic intervention, our findings show great promise for further optimization of Exebryl-1 as an nsp15 endoU inhibitor and as a SARS-CoV-2 antiviral.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Working Safely at LANL during the COVID-19 Pandemic (Rev. 2)

The COVID-19 pandemic is an emerging, rapidly evolving public health emergency. The content of this course reflects the most up-to-date guidance and information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and scientific literature available at the time the course was developed. Check the LANL COVID-19 Hub for the latest information and guidance. Updates to the course will be made as necessary to reflect evolving guidance form public health authorities and new data form the scientific literature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Taking the Air Out of Respiratory Pandemics: An R&D Effort for Developing New, Far Less Disruptive and Frightening Protective Measures to Extinguish Airborne Pathogen Outbreaks

This short concept article discusses four specific ways to eradicate respiratory pandemics once and for all. These include: Protecting the nose, mouth, throat and lungs; New hygiene regimens; Clearing the air; and Biophysical interventions. Technical breakthoughs in all four of these areas would not only protect people from life-threatening pathogens, but also take the dread out of respiratory disease outbreaks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19: Spatiotemporal social data analytics and machine learning for pandemic exploration and forecasting

This task focused on developing a preliminary approach to use machine learning (ML) to explore the relationship between county-level societal variables and COVID-19 parameters, including COVID-19 cases rates and counts and COVID-19 death rates and counts. The objective was to develop and test a prototype approach for linking COVID-19 and county-level data. The task focused on enhancing and applying existing LANL ML techniques to COVID-19. Our novel ML methods have been a subject of a recently approved U.S. patent. The codes based on these methods are already open-source released. Our ML tools (NMFk/NTFk) are applied to extract hidden features (signals, waves) in the analyzed datasets and automatically identify their optimal number. The features are extracted by identifying counties that have similarities between the county-level societal variables and the COVID-19 parameters. These demonstration analyses will facilitate the ongoing pandemic simulations and predictions performed by Los Alamos other institutions, as well as lay the groundwork for future work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Housing Stability Index: Measuring the risk of housing disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Housing Stability Index (HSI) quantifies the decreased stability of housing (renter or owner occupied) across the United States due to missed or deferred housing payments (rent or mortgage payments) or serious delinquency. This is done through calculating the ratio of the near real-time percentage of occupied housing units not at risk of eviction or foreclosure to the baseline percentage of occupied housing units not at risk by county. For purposes of this index, “at risk” indicates a higher percentage of residents unable to make rent or mortgage payments. An HSI value of 1 indicates no additional housing instability (above housing instability before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) due to COVID-19 while declining values indicate increasing housing instability. Argonne also created two sub-indices, Owner-Occupied Housing Units at Risk and Renter Occupied Housing Units at Risk, to differentiate risk between homeowners and renters.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Deep Mutational Data and Machine Learning to Guide Outbreak and Pandemic Response

A significant fraction of pathogens known to infect humans originate in non-human (zoonotic) hosts (Taylor, Latham, and Woolhouse 2001), and new and emerging pathogens continue to spill over into the human population more frequently at an alarming rate (e.g., SARS, MERS, Cholera, etc.). The recent outbreaks of Ebola virus in West Africa and the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrate the need for rapid and reliable assessments of viral phenotype information to help inform scientists and policy makers how best to control the spread of disease. Further understanding of the virus pathogenic evolutionary space and potential trajectory could guide appropriate control measures to limit the spread of a new virus throughout the local and global human population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Doing Pandemic R&D as if There’s No Mañana: Charting a course to zig and zag our way out of the pandemonium we’re in

Since the beginnings of Sandia National Laboratories, Sandians have made the unthinkable not only thinkable, but also plannable and doable. Over time, we’ve tempered ourselves, studying and devising ways to deter, defend against, and blunt threats of mass death, destruction, and disruption. Now we, and all within our social circles, are living one of the nightmares that only a small fraction of our fellow Sandians have pondered, tackled, and anticipated––a virus that bypasses militaries, zips through borders, hitches to domestic travelers and commuters, makes its hosts unknowing dangers to others, overwhelms hospitals and clinics, hobbles governments, and takes away the lives and livelihoods of compromised and marginalized people everywhere. Taken by surprise, Sandians have dispersed and re-congregated into three interconnected camps. Those who determinedly and defiantly carry on with the work they’ve been doing since before the pandemic hit. Those who are doggedly mustering and redirecting their abilities, experience, education, and energies to get us to the other side of this crisis (without ending up on the Other Side in the process). And those who are in fight-or-flight mode because this virus is pushing them to their personal limits, directly threatening them and/or the lives, jobs, and businesses that matter to them. From these three camps (which some of us migrate between on a daily, hourly, or even minute-by-minute basis), we make our individual and collective attempts to hold it together, do our work, and live another day. While there is much about this that is beyond our control, we are anything but helpless. Each of us has specialized powers and influence that can be brought to bear on the big and small parts of this gnarly problem. It all starts with a personal and collective understanding of the situation we’re in.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies after First 6 Months of COVID-19 Pandemic, Portugal

In September 2020, we tested 13,398 persons in Portugal for antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 by using a quota sample stratified by age and population density. We found a seroprevalence of 2.2%, 3–4 times larger than the official number of cases at the end of the first wave of the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing multimodal high-intensity interval training for a firefighter training academy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Firefighters typically undergo a 16–24-week training academy during which they perform a variety of traditional exercise programs such as cardiovascular, resistance, and concurrent training. Because of limited facility access, some fire departments seek alternative exercise programs, such as multimodal high-intensity interval training (MM-HIIT), which essentially combines resistance and interval training. Here, the primary purpose of this study was to assess the effect of MM-HIIT on body composition and physical fitness in firefighter recruits who completed a training academy during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A secondary purpose was to compare the effects of MM-HIIT to previous training academies that implemented traditional exercise programs. Healthy and recreationally-trained recruits (n=12) participated in 2-3 days/week of MM-HIIT for 12 weeks and had several components of body composition and physical fitness measured before and after the program. Because of COVID-19-related gym closures, all MM-HIIT sessions were performed outdoors at a fire station with minimal equipment. These data were retroactively compared to a control group (CG) that previously completed training academies with traditional exercise programs. Subjects in the MM-HIIT group significantly improved several components of body composition and fitness, including fat mass, fat-free mass, body fat percentage, aerobic capacity, and muscular endurance (p < 0.005). Moreover, there were no significant differences for any dependent variable when MM-HIIT was compared to the CG (p≥0.005). These results suggest that MM-HIIT may serve as an effective substitute for traditional concurrent training paradigms that are typically used for firefighter academies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple Mutations Associated with Emergent Variants Can Be Detected as Low-Frequency Mutations in Early SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Clinical Samples

Genetic analysis of intra-host viral populations provides unique insight into pre-emergent mutations that may contribute to the genotype of future variants. Clinical samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 collected in California during the first months of the pandemic were sequenced to define the dynamics of mutation emergence as the virus became established in the state. Deep sequencing of 90 nasopharyngeal samples showed that many mutations associated with the establishment of SARS-CoV-2 globally were present at varying frequencies in a majority of the samples, even those collected as the virus was first detected in the US. A subset of mutations that emerged months later in consensus sequences were detected as subconsensus members of intra-host populations. Spike mutations P681H, H655Y, and V1104L were detected prior to emergence in variant genotypes, mutations were detected at multiple positions within the furin cleavage site, and pre-emergent mutations were identified in the nucleocapsid and the envelope genes. Because many of the samples had a very high depth of coverage, a bioinformatics pipeline, “Mappgene”, was established that uses both iVar and LoFreq variant calling to enable identification of very low-frequency variants. This enabled detection of a spike protein deletion present in many samples at low frequency and associated with a variant of concern.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanical Ventilator Milano (MVM): A Novel Mechanical Ventilator Designed for Mass Scale Production in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemics

We present here the design of the Mechanical Ventilator Milano (MVM), a novel mechanical ventilator designed for mass scale production in response to the COVID-19 pandemics, to compensate for the dramatic shortage of such ventilators in many countries. This ventilator is an electro-mechanical equivalent of the old, reliable Manley Ventilator. Our design is optimized to permit large sale production in short time and at a limited cost, relying on off-the-shelf components, readily available worldwide from hardware suppliers. Operation of the MVM requires only a source of compressed oxygen (or compressed medical air) and electrical power. The MVM control and monitoring unit can be connected and networked via WiFi so that no additional electrical connections are necessary other than the connection to the electrical power. At this stage the MVM is not a certified medical device. Construction of the first prototypes is starting with a team of engineers, scientists and computing experts. The purpose of this paper is to disseminate the conceptual design of the MVM broadly and to solicit feedback from the scientific and medical community to speed the process of review, improvement and possible implementation.

Galbiati, C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19 Joint Pandemic Modeling and Analysis Platform

The non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19 requires the development of policies and guidance through a collaborative effort among government, academia, medicine, and citizens. To operationalize this effort, we have developed an all-encompassing situational awareness platform that can process multi-modal and multi-source data allowing informed decision making. Besides, showing the current spread of infection, the platform also captures the impact of human dynamics on the infection spread, location, and availability of critical infrastructure, prediction, and high-performance computing driven simulation. The platform is extensible, allowing third-party integration and services to consume the curated data and analytics in near real-time. We believe the platform will augment critical decision making for reducing the impact and spread of the pandemic.

Thakur, Gautam↗