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At least 91 records · Page 5

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tools for supporting solution scattering during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, synchrotron beamlines were forced to limit user access. Performing routine measurements became a challenge. At the Life Science X-ray Scattering (LiX) beamline, new instrumentation and mail-in protocols have been developed to remove the access barrier to solution scattering measurements. Our efforts took advantage of existing instrumentation and coincided with the larger effort at NSLS-II to support remote measurements. Given the limited staff–user interaction for mail-in measurements, additional software tools have been developed to ensure data quality, to automate the adjustments in data processing, as users would otherwise rely on the experience of the beamline staff, and produce a summary of the initial assessments of the data. This report describes the details of these developments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluation of the Deletion of MGF110-5L-6L on Swine Virulence from the Pandemic Strain of African Swine Fever Virus and Use as a DIVA Marker in Vaccine Candidate ASFV-G-ΔI177L

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is responsible for an ongoing pandemic that is affecting central Europe, Asia, and recently the Dominican Republic, the first report of the disease in the Western Hemisphere in over 40 years. ASFV is a large, complex virus with a double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) genome that carries more than 150 genes, most of which have not been studied. Here, we assessed the role of the MGF110-5L-6L gene during virus replication in cell cultures and experimental infection in swine. A recombinant virus with MGF110-5L-6L deleted (ASFV-G-ΔMGF110-5L-6L) was developed using the highly virulent ASFV Georgia (ASFV-G) isolate as a template. ASFV-G-DMGF110-5L-6L replicates in swine macrophage cultures as efficiently as the parental virus ASFV-G, indicating that the MGF110-5L-6L gene is nonessential for virus replication. Similarly, domestic pigs inoculated with ASFV-G-ΔMGF110-5L-6L presented with a clinical disease undistinguishable from that caused by the parental ASFV-G, confirming that the MGF110-5L-6L gene is not involved in producing disease in swine. Sera from animals inoculated with an efficacious vaccine candidate, ASFV-G-ΔMGF, strongly recognized the protein encoded by the MGF110-5L-6L gene as a potential target for the development of an antigenic marker differentiation of infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) vaccine. To test this hypothesis, the MGF110-5L-6L gene was deleted from the highly efficacious ASFV vaccine candidate ASFV-G-ΔI177L, generating the recombinant ASFV-G-DI177L/DMGF110-5L-6L. Animals inoculated with ASFV-G-ΔI177L/DMGF110-5L-6L developed an ASFV-specific antibody response detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The sera strongly recognized ASFV p30 expressed in eukaryotic cells but did not recognize ASFV MGF110-5L6L protein, demonstrating that deletion of the MGF110-5L-6L gene can enable DIVA capabilities in preexisting vaccine candidates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deletion of E184L, a Putative DIVA Target from the Pandemic Strain of African Swine Fever Virus, Produces a Reduction in Virulence and Protection against Virulent Challenge

African swine fever (ASF) is currently causing a major pandemic affecting the swine industry and protein availability from Central Europe to East and South Asia. No commercial vaccines are available, making disease control dependent on the elimination of affected animals. Here, we show that the deletion of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) E184L gene from the highly virulent ASFV Georgia 2010 (ASFV-G) isolate produces a reduction in virus virulence during the infection in swine. Of domestic pigs intramuscularly inoculated with a recombinant virus lacking the E184L gene (ASFV-GDE184L), 40% experienced a significantly (5 days) delayed presentation of clinical disease and, overall, had a 60% rate of survival compared to animals inoculated with the virulent parental ASFV-G. Importantly, all animals surviving ASFV-G-DE184L infection developed a strong antibody response and were protected when challenged with ASFV-G. As expected, a pool of sera from ASFV-G-DE184L-inoculated animals lacked any detectable antibody response to peptides partially representing the E184L protein, while sera from animals inoculated with an efficacious vaccine candidate, ASFV-GDMGF, strongly recognize the same set of peptides. These results support the potential use of the E184L deletion for the development of vaccines able to differentiate infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA). Therefore, it is shown here that the E184L gene is a novel ASFV determinant of virulence that can potentially be used to increase safety in preexisting vaccine candidates, as well as to provide them with DIVA capabilities. To our knowledge, E184L is the first ASFV gene product experimentally shown to be a functional DIVA antigenic marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Longitudinal Effects on Plant Species Involved in Agriculture and Pandemic Emergence Undergoing Changes in Abiotic Stress

In this work we identify changes in high-resolution zones across the globe linked by environmental similarity that have implications for agriculture, bioenergy, and zoonosis. We refine exhaustive vector comparison methods with improved similarity metrics as well as provide multiple methods of amalgamation across 744 months of climatic data. The results of the vector comparison are captured as networks which are analyzed using static and longitudinal comparison methods to reveal locations around the globe experiencing dramatic changes in abiotic stress. Specifically we (i) incorporate updated similarity scores and provide a comparison between similarity metrics, (ii) implement a new feature for resource optimization, (iii) compare an agglomerative view to a longitudinal view, (iv) compare across 2-way and 3-way vector comparisons, (v) implement a new form of analysis, and (vi) demonstrate biological applications and discuss implications across a diverse set of species distributions by detecting changes that affect their habitats. Species of interest are related to agriculture (e.g., coffee, wine, chocolate), bioenergy (e.g., poplar, switchgrass, pennycress), as well as those living in zones of concern for zoonotic spillover that may lead to pandemics (e.g., eucalyptus, flying foxes).

Cashman, Mikaela↗

Computational epidemiological tools for pandemic analysis, understanding, and response

This suite of software tools is being developed to enhance and analyze computational epidemiological models that incorporate realistic disease dynamics and human behavior, with the goal of supporting epidemic and pandemic response. Specifically, the tools enable data analysis, feature extraction, data synthesis, machine learning model development, and prediction of key public health outcomes, such as cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and behavioral responses, for airborne infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza.

Butts, David↗

Does class matter? Understanding differential pandemic recovery via a building typology

This study investigates the recovery of building-level footfall from the COVID-19 pandemic using privacy-preserving mobile devices-based footfall data within 60 downtown areas in the USA and Canada. Using clustering, we identify five distinct building typologies based on their characteristics, including rent, quality and recovery rates. The results reveal significant variation of recovery rates by building features. We find negative relationships with footfall recovery for both the percentage of office and remote work tenants and building quality. In contrast, buildings with traditional work tenants and retail functions achieve higher recovery rates. We also test the ‘flight to quality’ hypothesis via on our typology results. High-quality office buildings (Class A+) continue to have high rents but experience low physical footfall recovery, which suggests that this class is not as resilient as portrayed. The findings thus suggest the importance of considering both economic and footfall resilience in evaluating the performance of office buildings.

Covid-19↗

Partner with a Third-Party Delivery Service or Not? A Prediction-and-Decision Tool for Restaurants Facing Takeout Demand Surges During a Pandemic

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supporting data for climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

This data supports the conclusions found in climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics. Included here are (i) the binarized geolocation vectors used for exhaustive vector comparisons, (ii) the resulting climatic networks, (iii) the results of applying Markov clustering to the climatic networks, and (iv) the results of applying Correlation-of-Correlations (cor-cor) to the climatic networks. The set of binarized geolocation vectors that are used as inputs for the Combinatorial Metrics library (CoMet) are of the form comet-UUUUUxVVVVV-XXXX-YYYY.shuffled.tped where UUUUU is the number of vectors, VVVVV is the length of each vector, XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to a geolocation vector of binary elements A (i.e., 0) and T (i.e., 1). The set of climatic networks that are used for downstream network analysis are of the form network-U-way-XXXX-YYYY.parsed.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to an edge linking two geolocations (defined by latitude and longitude) with its corresponding edge weight (i.e., DUO score). The set of cluster results are of the form clusters-U-way-XXXX-YYYY-thresh-VVVV-inflation-WWW.clustered.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, YYYY is the ending year, VVVV is the similarity threshold, and WWW is the Markov clustering inflation rate. Each line corresponds to a single cluster and is composed of a number of corresponding geolocations (defined by latitude and longitude). The set of cor-cor results are of the form corcor-U-way-XXXX-YYYY.cumulative.txt where U is the order of the comparison (2-way or 3-way), XXXX is the starting year, and YYYY is the ending year. Each line corresponds to a single geolocation with it's corresponding cor-cor value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗

High-throughput screening of the ReFRAME, Pandemic Box, and COVID Box drug repurposing libraries against SARS-CoV-2 nsp15 endoribonuclease to identify small-molecule inhibitors of viral activity

SARS-CoV-2 has caused a global pandemic, and has taken over 1.7 million lives as of mid-December, 2020. Although great progress has been made in the development of effective countermeasures, with several pharmaceutical companies approved or poised to deliver vaccines to market, there is still an unmet need of essential antiviral drugs with therapeutic impact for the treatment of moderate-to-severe COVID-19. Towards this goal, a high-throughput assay was used to screen SARS-CoV-2 nsp15 uracil-dependent endonuclease (endoU) function against 13 thousand compounds from drug and lead repurposing compound libraries. While over 80% of initial hit compounds were pan-assay inhibitory compounds, three hits were confirmed as nsp15 endoU inhibitors in the 1–20 μM range in vitro. Furthermore, Exebryl-1, a ß-amyloid anti-aggregation molecule for Alzheimer’s therapy, was shown to have antiviral activity between 10 to 66 μM, in Vero 76, Caco-2, and Calu-3 cells. Although the inhibitory concentrations determined for Exebryl-1 exceed those recommended for therapeutic intervention, our findings show great promise for further optimization of Exebryl-1 as an nsp15 endoU inhibitor and as a SARS-CoV-2 antiviral.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Working Safely at LANL during the COVID-19 Pandemic (Rev. 2)

The COVID-19 pandemic is an emerging, rapidly evolving public health emergency. The content of this course reflects the most up-to-date guidance and information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and scientific literature available at the time the course was developed. Check the LANL COVID-19 Hub for the latest information and guidance. Updates to the course will be made as necessary to reflect evolving guidance form public health authorities and new data form the scientific literature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Taking the Air Out of Respiratory Pandemics: An R&D Effort for Developing New, Far Less Disruptive and Frightening Protective Measures to Extinguish Airborne Pathogen Outbreaks

This short concept article discusses four specific ways to eradicate respiratory pandemics once and for all. These include: Protecting the nose, mouth, throat and lungs; New hygiene regimens; Clearing the air; and Biophysical interventions. Technical breakthoughs in all four of these areas would not only protect people from life-threatening pathogens, but also take the dread out of respiratory disease outbreaks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

COVID-19: Spatiotemporal social data analytics and machine learning for pandemic exploration and forecasting

This task focused on developing a preliminary approach to use machine learning (ML) to explore the relationship between county-level societal variables and COVID-19 parameters, including COVID-19 cases rates and counts and COVID-19 death rates and counts. The objective was to develop and test a prototype approach for linking COVID-19 and county-level data. The task focused on enhancing and applying existing LANL ML techniques to COVID-19. Our novel ML methods have been a subject of a recently approved U.S. patent. The codes based on these methods are already open-source released. Our ML tools (NMFk/NTFk) are applied to extract hidden features (signals, waves) in the analyzed datasets and automatically identify their optimal number. The features are extracted by identifying counties that have similarities between the county-level societal variables and the COVID-19 parameters. These demonstration analyses will facilitate the ongoing pandemic simulations and predictions performed by Los Alamos other institutions, as well as lay the groundwork for future work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Housing Stability Index: Measuring the risk of housing disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Housing Stability Index (HSI) quantifies the decreased stability of housing (renter or owner occupied) across the United States due to missed or deferred housing payments (rent or mortgage payments) or serious delinquency. This is done through calculating the ratio of the near real-time percentage of occupied housing units not at risk of eviction or foreclosure to the baseline percentage of occupied housing units not at risk by county. For purposes of this index, “at risk” indicates a higher percentage of residents unable to make rent or mortgage payments. An HSI value of 1 indicates no additional housing instability (above housing instability before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) due to COVID-19 while declining values indicate increasing housing instability. Argonne also created two sub-indices, Owner-Occupied Housing Units at Risk and Renter Occupied Housing Units at Risk, to differentiate risk between homeowners and renters.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Using Deep Mutational Data and Machine Learning to Guide Outbreak and Pandemic Response

A significant fraction of pathogens known to infect humans originate in non-human (zoonotic) hosts (Taylor, Latham, and Woolhouse 2001), and new and emerging pathogens continue to spill over into the human population more frequently at an alarming rate (e.g., SARS, MERS, Cholera, etc.). The recent outbreaks of Ebola virus in West Africa and the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrate the need for rapid and reliable assessments of viral phenotype information to help inform scientists and policy makers how best to control the spread of disease. Further understanding of the virus pathogenic evolutionary space and potential trajectory could guide appropriate control measures to limit the spread of a new virus throughout the local and global human population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗