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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project celebrates its 30th anniversary in 2021. The first phase initiated systematic model-model and model-data comparisons for the Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene. Here, we describe the historical context of PMIP, the experiment design, and the project’s early impacts.
High-resolution chronologies are crucial for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, and are particularly challenging for lacustrine records of terrestrial paleoclimate. Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon measurement of terrestrial macrofossils is the most common technique for building age models for lake sediment cores, but relies on the presence of terrestrial macrofossils in sediments. In the absence of sufficient macrofossils, pollen concentrates represent a valuable source of dates for building high-resolution chronologies. However, pollen isolation and dating may present several challenges, as has been reported by different authors in previous work over the last few decades. Here we present an improved method for extracting, purifying and radiocarbon-dating pollen concentrates using flow cytometry to improve the extraction efficiency and the purity of the pollen concentrates. Overall, the nature of the sediments and the abundance of the pollen represent major considerations in obtaining enough pollen grains and, consequently, enough carbon to be dated. Further, the complete separation of pollen from other forms of organic matter is required to ensure the accuracy of the dates. We apply the method to surface samples and sediment cores recovered from two contrasting lake basins on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada (California), and describe the variations that may be used to optimize pollen preparation from a variety of sediments.
The terrestrial Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, is a critical archive of paleoclimate, tectonics, and vertebrate ecology and evolution. Early Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbations associated with ocean anoxia have been interpreted from this succession, as expressed in stable carbon isotopes. However, refining the timing of the observed stable isotope excursions remains a key challenge in understanding how marine anoxia affects the Earth system, and is ultimately recorded in the terrestrial realm. The geochronology and geochemistry of a terrestrial carbonate near the base of this succession, which potentially records the Ap7 global carbon isotope excursion, is studied here. Petrographic and geochemical analyses are used to test plausible mechanisms for U incorporation into the calcite lattice in this sample. Using these methods, the hypothesis that the incorporation of U was at or close to the timing of carbonate precipitation is evaluated. U–Pb geochronology of calcite indicates a plausible Early Cretaceous age. However, comparison of the new U–Pb ages of calcite with detrital zircon maximum depositional ages immediately beneath the studied sample indicates a disparity in the apparent sedimentation rates if both types of geochronologic information are interpreted as reflecting the timing of sediment deposition. The totality of data supports an early, and high-temperature, diagenetic timing of U incorporation, with potential for minor leaching of U in subsequent fluid–rock interaction. The most likely mechanism for U transport and immobilization in these samples is hydrothermal fluid–rock interaction. Therefore, the radiometric ages, and corresponding stable isotope composition of U-bearing carbonate domains in this sample, indicate early subsurface fluid–rock interactions and not a record of atmosphere–soil geochemical reactions.
Abstract. The last deglaciation (∼20–11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation (∼20–15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % of the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the experimental design (e.g. CO2 forcing or ice sheet reconstruction). The results provide insight into the ability of our models to simulate the first part of the deglaciation and how choices between uncertain boundary conditions and forcings, with a focus on freshwater fluxes, can impact model outputs. We can use these findings as helpful insight in the design of future simulations of this time period.
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the responses from a set of early 19th century simulations with combined and separated volcanic and solar forcing agents, as suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4). From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is additive in the global mean/large scale, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE (Spectral and Total Irradiance REconstruction-Millennia model) and PMOD (Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos)) contribute to a cooling before and after 1815 of ~0.05 and ~0.15 K monthly average near-surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling that peaks at ~0.82 K for the 1809 event and ~1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the temperature in most regions increases toward climatology largely within 5 years, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the temperature increases slowly at a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the concurrent changes in Arctic sea-ice extent. The albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite-sign changes in stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extratropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of the volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the 1815 Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates.
Photochemical and radiative-convective calculations are performed to evaluate the influence of ozone in determining the surface temperature of the paleoatmosphere prior to the buildup of molecular oxygen to its present atmospheric level. Possible effects of atmospheric dynamics on the photochemistry and thermal structure of the paleoatmosphere are neglected, and the present atmospheric values are assumed for the tropospheric water-vapor relative-humidity distribution and lapse rate as well as for the fractional cloud amount and cloud reflectivity. It is found that the radiative effects (at IR and solar wavelengths) of ozone for a molecular oxygen level of one-tenth the present atmospheric level resulted in a globally averaged surface-temperature increase of about 4.5 K for the present solar constant. Implications of the results for paleoclimate are briefly considered.
Various studies concerning differing aspects of the North Atlantic are presented. The three major topics under which the works are classified include: (1) oceanography; (2) paleoclimate; and (3) ocean, ice and climate modeling.
Martian sediments and sedimentary rocks, clastic and nonclastic, should represent a high priority target in any future return-sample mission. The discovery of such materials and their subsequent analysis in terrestrial laboratories, would greatly increase the understanding of the Martian paleoclimate. The formation of Martian clastic sedimentary rocks, under either present, low-pressure, xeric conditions or a postulated, high-pressure, hydric environment, depends upon the existence of a supply of particles, various cementing agents and depositional basins. A very high resolution (mm-cm range) photographic reconnaissance of these areas would produce a quantum jump in the understanding of Martian geological history. Sampling would be confined to more horizontal (recent) surfaces. Exploration techniques are suggested for various hypothetical Martian sedimentary rocks.
Plant microfossils, principally pollen grains and spores produced by land plants, provide an excellent record of the terminal Cretaceous event in nonmarine environments. The record indicates regional devastation of the latest Cretaceous vegetation with the extinction of many groups, followed by a recolonization of the earliest Tertiary land surface, and development of a permanently changed land flora. The regional variations in depositional environments, plant communities, and paleoclimates provide insight into the nature and effects of the event, which were short-lived but profound. The plant microfossil data support the hypothesis that an abruptly initiated, major ecological crisis occurred at the end of the Cretaceous. Disruption of the Late Cretaceous flora ultimately contributred to the rise of modern vegetation. The plant microfossils together with geochemical and mineralogical data are consistent with an extraterrestrial impact having been the cause of the terminal Cretaceous event.
General concerns about changes in the Earth's climate and in the ozone layer have increased the importance of measuring and understanding variations in the sun's radiative outputs. These outputs appear, for instance, at the top of the list of global change forcing agents in the recent FY-90 document on the U.S. Global Change Program. Significant advances have been made over the past decade in radiometry of the total solar irradiance. Photometry of light variations in stars similar to the sun, but much younger, is providing new insights into the sun's variations in luminosity and UV radiation at previous epochs of interest to paleoclimate studies. Measurement of the sun's 11-year output variability in the ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet still possess a challenge of great importance. All of these topics are addressed by the program on Radiative Inputs of the Sun to Earth (RISE). RISE is a 5-year program of observations, data analysis, and theory, that has been defined at two workshops held in Boulder, Colorado in November 1987, and in Tucson, Arizona in October 1989. These meetings involved about 60 solar and atmospheric physicists, and stellar astronomers. A proceedings of the 1987 workshop was issued in early 1988. A substantial component of the program, consisting of ground-based observations, data analysis, and theory, is directed at the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the program is seeking a FY-92 funding start at the NSF. RISE also makes recommendations on measurements required from NASA and NOAA satellites.
The range of disciplines in the study of volcanism-climate interactions includes paleoclimate, volcanology, petrology, tectonics, cloud physics and chemistry, and climate and radiation modeling. Questions encountered in understanding the interactions include: the source and evolution of sulfur and sulfur-gaseous species in magmas; their entrainment in volcanic plumes and injection into the stratosphere; their dissipation rates; and their radiative effects. Other issues include modeling and measuring regional and global effects of such large, dense clouds. A broad-range plan of research designed to answer these questions was defined. The plan includes observations of volcanoes, rocks, trees, and ice cores, as well as satellite and aircraft observations of erupting volcanoes and resulting lumes and clouds.
Work performed on the three tasks during the report period is summarized. The climate and atmospheric modeling studies included work on climate model development and applications, paleoclimate studies, climate change applications, and SAGE II. Climate applications of Earth and planetary observations included studies on cloud climatology and planetary studies. Studies on the chemistry of the Earth and the environment are briefly described. Publications based on the above research are listed; two of these papers are included in the appendices.
The report of an international meeting on the topic of Orbital, Rotational, and Climatic Interactions, which was held 9-11 Jul. 1991 at the Johns Hopkins University is presented. The meeting was attended by 22 researchers working on various aspects of orbital and rotational dynamics, paleoclimate data analysis and modeling, solid-Earth deformation studies, and paleomagnetic analyses. The primary objective of the workshop was to arrive at a better understanding of the interactions between the orbital, rotational, and climatic variations of the Earth. This report contains a brief introduction and 14 contributed papers which cover most of the topics discussed at the meeting.
The sensitivity of the amplitudes and frequencies in the development of the Earth's orbital and rotational elements involved in the astronomical theory of paleoclimates (eccentricity, obliquity, and climate precession), to the Earth-Moon distance and consequently to the length of the day and to the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth has been discussed for the last billions of years. The shortening of the Earth-Moon distance and of the length of the day, as well as the lengthening of the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth back in time induce a shortening of the fundamental astronomical periods for precession and obliquity. At the same time, the amplitudes of the different terms in the development of the obliquity are undergoing a relative enlargement of about 50 percent at 2 x 10(exp 9) yr BP but the independent term is increasing very weakly (less than 0.1 percent). In other words, the value of the obliquity, which lies within a range of 21.7 to 24.9 deg over the Quarternary was restricted to a range of 22.5 to 24.1 deg at 2 x 10(exp 9) yr BP. On the other hand, the amplitudes in the development of the climatic precession do not change. Moreover, these changes in the frequencies and amplitudes for both obliquity and climatic precession are larger for longer period terms. Finally, the periods in the eccentricity development are not influenced by the variation of the lunar distance. But the motion of the solar system, especially of the inner planets, was shown to be chaotic. It means that it is impossible to compute the exact motion of the planets over more than about 100 Myr, and the fundamental frequencies of the systems are not fixed quantities, but are slowly varying with time. As long as we consider the most important terms, the maximum deviation from the present-day value of the 19-kyr precessional period due to the chaotic motion of the solar system only does not reach more than a few tens of years around 80 Myr BP. Therefore the shortening of the obliquity and climatic precession periods is mostly driven by the change in the lunar distance and the consequent variations in the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth's angular speed. At first sight, the deviation in the period for the eccentricity can be neglected, as the chaotic behavior of the solar system implies a relative change of the main periods by less than 0.2 percent, 1.4 percent, and 1.9 percent respectively, this maximum change being achieved around 80 Myr BP. This implies, in particular, that the eccentricity periods for Quarternary climate studies may be considered more or less constant for pre-Quaternay times and equal to their Quaternary values.
A general circulation model was used to investigate the sensitivity of Asian and African climate to prescribed changes in boundary conditions with the objective of identifying the relative importance of individual high-latitude glacial boundary conditions on seasonal climate and providing a physical basis for interpreting the paleoclimate record. The circulation model is described and results are presented. Insolation forcing increased summer Asian monsoon winds, while increased high-latitude ice cover strengthened winter Asian trade winds causing decreased precipitation. These factors had little effect on African climate. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperatures enhanced winter trade winds over North Africa, southern Asian climate was relatively unaffected. Reducing Asian orography enhanced Asian winter circulation while decreasing the summer monsoon. These model results suggest that African and southern Asian climate respond differently to separate elements of high-latitude climate variability.
A warm climate on early Mars would provide a natural, although not unique, explanation for the presence of fluvial networks on the ancient, heavily cratered terrains. Explaining how the climate could have been kept warm, however, is not easy. The idea that the global average surface temperature, T(sub s), could have been kept warm by a dense, CO2 atmosphere supplied by volcanism or impacts is no longer viable. It was shown that CO2 cloud formation should have kept T(sub s) well below freezing until approximately 2 b.y. ago, when the Sun had brightened to at least 86 percent of its present value. Warm equatorial regions on an otherwise cold planet seem unlikely because atmospheric CO2 would probably condense out at the poles. Warming by impact-produced dust in the atmosphere seems unlikely because the amount of warming expected for silicate dust particles is relatively small. Greenhouse warming by high altitude CO2 ice clouds seems unlikely because such are poor absorbers of infrared radiation at most wavelengths. Warming by atmospheric NH3 seems unlikely because NH3 is readily photodissociated and because N may have been in short supply as consequence of impact erosion and the high solubility of NH3. A brighter, mass-losing young Sun seems unlikely because stellar winds of the required strength were not observed on other solar-type stars. In short, most of the explanations for a warm Martian paleoclimate that were proposed in the past seem unlikely. One possibility that seems feasible from radiative/photochemical standpoint is that CH4 and associated hydrocarbon gases and particles contributed substantially to the greenhouse effect on early Mars. Methane is photochemically more stable than NH3 and the gases and particles that can be formed from it are all good absorbers of infrared radiation. The idea of a CH4-rich Martian paleoatmosphere was suggested a long time ago but has fallen out of favor because of perceived difficulties in maintaining a CH4-rich atmosphere. In particular, it is not obvious where the CH4 might come from, since volcanic gases (on Earth, at least) contain very little CH4. This difficulty could be largely overcome if early Mars was inhabited by microorganisms. Then, methanogenic bacteria living in sediments could presumably have supplied CH4 to the atmosphere in copious quantities.
Constraints on the volatile inventory and outgassing history of Mars are critical to understanding the origin of ancient valley systems and paleoclimates. Planetary accretion models for Mars allow either a volatile-rich or volatile-poor mantle, depending on whether the accreted materials were fully oxidized or whether accretion was homogeneous so that water was lost through reaction with metallic iron. The amount of water that has been outgassed from the interior is likewise a contentious subject, and estimates of globally distributed water based on various geochemical and geological measurements vary from a few meters to more than a thousand meters. New data on SNC meteorites, which are thought to be Martian igneous rocks, provide constraints on both mantle and outgassed water.
We demonstrate in a simple climate model that there exist nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets capable of producing century/millennium timescale internal oscillations resembling those seen in the paleoclimate record. Feedbacks involve meridional heat and salt transports in the North Atlantic, surface ocean freshwater fluxes associated with melting and growing continental ice sheets in the northen hemisphere and with Atlantic to Pacific water vapor transport. The positive feedback between the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the meridional salt transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation tends to destabilize the climate system, while the negative feedback between the freshwater flux, either to or from the continental ice sheets, and meridional heat flux to the high-latitude North Atlantic, accomplished by the thermohaline circulation, stabilizes the system. The thermohaline circulation plays a central role in both positive and negative feedbacks because of its transport of both heat and salt. Because of asymmetries between the growth and melt phases the oscillations are, in general, accompanied by a growing or decreasing ice volume over each cycle, which in the model is reflected by increasing or decreasing mean salinity.