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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Erratum to: Data Fusion to Support Integrated Nuclear Detonation Detection [Slides]

The original document (LA-UR-22-29547) contained minor equation errors that approximate correct equations that couple the multi-sensor, serial system detector thresholds for a seismic Rayleigh wave detector and an acoustic energy detector. Those errors appeared on slides 62-67. This erratum associates the following slides with the erroneous slides. The numbers of the erroneous slides are marked at the upper right in small text in orange. A result of those errors over-predict the performance of the two-sensor serial network, that is, the former document provides an optimistic estimate of system performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Aviation Fuels from 30,000 feet – Scoping Report

A literature review, first principles analysis, and mapping of the airline-fuel infrastructure were performed to reassess the potential for various means of realizing a sustainable aviation sector. The literature review found a plethora of technical methods to make the airline industry net-zero CO 2 but limited work on the emergent barriers to sustainable aviation implementation such as land use, repurposing of fuel refining assets, and airline cost structures. First principles analyses of the energy, land, and costs of three broad net-zero strategies were performed to determine if sustainable aviation is feasible even in the most optimistic scenarios. Those methods were biomass-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), fuel produced from CO 2 captured from the air and H 2 produced from water electrolysis (air-to-fuel: ATF), and offsetting fossil-derived Jet Fuel with carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (direct air capture and storage: DACS). Offsetting CO 2 emissions from using fossil Jet Fuel with DACS was found to consume the least energy, require the smallest quantity of land, and be the cheapest option. Replacing Jet Fuel with SAF was found to be only slightly more expensive than DACS but require substantially more land. ATF was found to be the most expensive and energy intensive option, though it did spare land relative to SAF. We found that calls to utilize waste biomass are well-founded, but wastes alone cannot cover the needs of the global airline industry. This means additional land will need to be allocated for biomass cultivation if SAF becomes the primary pathway to sustainable aviation. While differences were found in the performance of different types of biomass, those differences were small relative to differences with ATF and DACS. An analysis of the pricing structure of the airline industry suggests that some of the cost advantage of DACS may be erased by consumer sentiment which could explain why, to-date, the airline industry is focused primarily on SAF and to a lesser extent ATF. Further work is required to estimate the transportation, capital cost, and financing cost implications of greenfield and brownfield sites for SAF, DACS, and ATF. In the final report, we will analyze the potential to retrofit corn ethanol facilities to operate the ethanol-to-jet fuel process in response to decreasing gasoline demand as the electrification of road transport progresses. We will also construct a prioritization of land use to determine whether each net-zero CO 2 aviation pathway can make claim to the land required by their technology.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Impacts of Electric Aircraft: An Overview

Commercial aviation represents approximately 2% of the global emissions of greenhouse gases, yet presently relies exclusively on fossil fuels as a source of energy. This paper evaluates to what extent an all-electric aircraft can provide an alternative. First, three classes of aircraft are modeled at various timelines in the future: 50/100/150 passenger capacity in 2030/2040/2050. Technology is assumed to improve over time, especially with regards to battery specific energy, resulting in aircraft with increased range. A database of all domestic flights in the US in 2019 is then used to filter and aggregate flights suited for replacement by electric aircraft. In the short term (2030), no viable aircraft can meet the requirements of each class. By 2040, a third of the flights can be done by an all-electric aircraft, but only short ones, as the range does not exceed 500 mi, resulting in 3% of total passenger-miles. By 2050, owing to the most optimistic technology assumptions, a quarter of all passenger-miles can be flown by electric airplanes. The resulting displaced jet fuel is also calculated.

Aviation sustainability↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methodology for assessing the maximum potential impact of separations opportunities in industrial processes

Separation technologies currently used in U.S. manufacturing industries are estimated to account for more than 20% of plant energy consumption. However, accurately determining the impact of new separation technology solutions can sometimes be difficult, especially when evaluating a slate of new candidate separation technologies, each of which has its own separation performance, energy demand, and capital cost. In these cases, a typical approach is to assess each new separation technology by collecting performance and cost information and then using that information to develop a techno-economic analysis to identify overall benefits. While this approach is thorough, it can be time consuming and can hinder reaching a critical understanding of the potential of a given separation challenge, especially when there is no known solution. To address these issues, we developed an assessment methodology, using industrial screening processes, that can be used to better understand the potential impacts of addressing a given separation challenge. This paper presents an overview of our separation challenge stream assessment methodology. The methodology involves defining an “ideal” separator and deriving the associated minimum separation energy. The “ideal” separator represents the most optimistic outlook of a given opportunity so the maximum impact from existing and not-yet-developed solutions can be assessed. Using established biorefinery models, we applied the methodology to 10 different separation challenge streams from two different biomass conversion platforms to identify the type of information that can be obtained. Three of the ten challenge streams assessed had maximum possible cost savings predictions >20%, and associated reductions in process energy carbon intensity ranging from 0 to 54%. Two streams had cost and energy savings potential that were < 5%. Some of the opportunity drivers from the various assessments include higher product yields, reduction or elimination of downstream equipment, new co-products, and cost savings associated with raw materials and energy consumption. The information from these assessments can help guide the selection or development of new separation technology solutions based on the various potential factors that drive the projected benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Current State, Challenges, and Opportunities in Genome-Scale Resource Allocation Models: A Mathematical Perspective

Stoichiometric genome-scale metabolic models (generally abbreviated GSM, GSMM, or GEM) have had many applications in exploring phenotypes and guiding metabolic engineering interventions. Nevertheless, these models and predictions thereof can become limited as they do not directly account for protein cost, enzyme kinetics, and cell surface or volume proteome limitations. Lack of such mechanistic detail could lead to overly optimistic predictions and engineered strains. Initial efforts to correct these deficiencies were by the application of precursor tools for GSMs, such as flux balance analysis with molecular crowding. In the past decade, several frameworks have been introduced to incorporate proteome-related limitations using a genome-scale stoichiometric model as the reconstruction basis, which herein are called resource allocation models (RAMs). This review provides a broad overview of representative or commonly used existing RAM frameworks. This review discusses increasingly complex models, beginning with stoichiometric models to precursor to RAM frameworks to existing RAM frameworks. RAM frameworks are broadly divided into two categories: coarse-grained and fine-grained, with different strengths and challenges. Discussion includes pinpointing their utility, data needs, highlighting framework strengths and limitations, and appropriateness to various research endeavors, largely through contrasting their mathematical frameworks. Finally, promising future applications of RAMs are discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining High-energy Neutrino Emission from Supernovae with IceCube

Core-collapse supernovae are a promising potential high-energy neutrino source class. We test for correlation between seven years of IceCube neutrino data and a catalog containing more than 1000 core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and IIP and a sample of stripped-envelope supernovae. We search both for neutrino emission from individual supernovae as well as for combined emission from the whole supernova sample, through a stacking analysis. No significant spatial or temporal correlation of neutrinos with the cataloged supernovae was found. All scenarios were tested against the background expectation and together yield an overall p-value of 93%; therefore, they show consistency with the background only. The derived upper limits on the total energy emitted in neutrinos are 1.7 × 10 48 erg for stripped-envelope supernovae, 2.8 × 10 48 erg for type IIP, and 1.3 × 10 49 erg for type IIn SNe, the latter disfavoring models with optimistic assumptions for neutrino production in interacting supernovae. We conclude that stripped-envelope supernovae and supernovae of type IIn do not contribute more than 14.6% and 33.9%, respectively, to the diffuse neutrino flux in the energy range of about [ 10 3 –10 5 ] GeV, assuming that the neutrino energy spectrum follows a power-law with an index of –2.5. Under the same assumption, we can only constrain the contribution of type IIP SNe to no more than 59.9%. Thus, core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and stripped-envelope supernovae can both be ruled out as the dominant source of the diffuse neutrino flux under the given assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Magnetic-field-driven Anisotropies on the Equation of State Probed in Neutron Star Mergers

Binary neutron star mergers can produce extreme magnetic fields, some of which can lead to strong magnetar-like remnants. While strong magnetic fields have been shown to affect the dynamics of outflows and angular momentum transport in the remnant, they can also crucially alter the properties of nuclear matter probed in the merger. In this work, we provide a first assessment of the latter, determining the strength of the pressure anisotropy caused by Landau-level quantization and the anomalous magnetic moment. To this end, we perform the first numerical relativity simulation with a magnetic polarization tensor and a magnetic-field-dependent equation of state using a new algorithm we present here, which also incorporates a mean-field dynamo model to control the magnetic field strength present in the merger remnant. Our results show that—in the most optimistic case—corrections to the anisotropy can be in excess of 10% and are potentially largest in the outer layers of the remnant. This work paves the way for a systematic investigation of these effects.

General relativity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1961

FUTURE EXPLORATION AND UTILIZATION OF OUTER SPACE

The assessment of the future of astronautics is the task of a prophet, a profession not recognized as an established branch of science. Prophecy is an art rather than a profession and there are no established methods of procedure. Knowledge of specific developments in progress and past experience give a reasonable basis for extrapolating a few years ahead. For the more distant future, imagination, intuition, and faith are the only tools, and these are inevitably colored by the nature and environment of the prophet. He may be naturally an optimist or a pessimist. The seeker for financial support and the salesman will see the future very differently than the engineer responsible for the success of launching vehicles on difficult missions. Some of the problems of predicting future developments may be appreciated by looking backward in time by 52 years.

ECHO I SATELLITE↗
NASA NTRS1960

Future Exploration and Utilization of Outer Space

The assessment of the future of astronautics is the task of a prophet, a profession not recognized as an established branch of science. Prophecy is an art rather than a profession and there are no established methods of procedure. Knowledge of specific developments in progress and past experience give a reasonable basis for extrapolating a few years ahead. For the more distant future, imagination, intuition, and faith are the only tools, and these are inevitably colored by the nature and environment of the prophet. He may be naturally an optimist or a pessimist. The seeker for financial support and the salesman will see the future very differently than the engineer responsible for the success of launching vehicles on difficult missions. Some of the problems of predicting future developments may be appreciated by looking backward in time by 52 years.

Dryden, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Interdisciplinary research on the application of ERTS-1 data to the regional land use planning process

The author has identified the following significant results. Although the degree to which ERTS-1 imagery can satisfy regional land use planning data needs is not yet known, it appears to offer means by which the data acquisition process can be immeasurably improved. The initial experiences of an interdisciplinary group attempting to formulate ways of analyzing the effectiveness of ERTS-1 imagery as a base for environmental monitoring and the resolution of regional land allocation problems are documented. Application of imagery to the regional planning process consists of utilizing representative geographical regions within the state of Wisconsin. Because of the need to describe and depict regional resource complexity in an interrelatable state, certain resources within the geographical regions have been inventoried and stored in a two-dimensional computer-based map form. Computer oriented processes were developed to provide for the economical storage, analysis, and spatial display of natural and cultural data for regional land use planning purposes. The authors are optimistic that the imagery will provide revelant data for land use decision making at regional levels.

Clapp, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Potentialities of lunar laser ranging for measuring tectonic motions.

The lunar laser-ranging system at McDonald Observatory, Texas, is currently attaining accuracies of plus or minus 15 cm, and plus or minus 3 cm appears feasible. Numerical error analyses containing 97 parameters (35 of them for error sources) indicate that the plus or minus 3 cm system would measure station motions to plus or minus 1 cm/year accuracy within a year for east-west motions and within about 3 years for north-south. Furthermore, the correlations of station motions with other parameters are low, so that it is unlikely that the estimate is too optimistic because of modeling inadequacies of the error analysis.

Kaula, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Thick film silicon growth techniques

The research which was directed toward finding an improved die material is reported. Wetting experiments were conducted with various materials to determine their compatibility with silicon. Work has also continued toward the development of quartz as a die material as new techniques have provided more optimistic results than observed in the past. As a result of the thermal modification previously described, improvements in growth stability have contributed to an increase in ribbon quality.

Bates, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Landing rates for mixed STOL and CTOL traffic

A study was made to determine the expected landing rate for STOL-only traffic and mixed STOL-CTOL traffic. The conditions used vary from present day standards to an optimistic estimate of possible 1985 conditions. A computer program was used to determine the maximum landing rate for the specified conditions and aircraft mix. The results show that the addition of STOL on a CTOL runway increases the total landing rate if the STOL airborne spacing can be reduced by use of improved navigation equipment. Further, if both takeoff and landings are performed on the same runway, the addition of STOL traffic will allow an increase in the total operation rate, even with existing spacing requirements.

White, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Brain stem auditory evoked responses in human infants and adults

Brain stem evoked potentials were recorded by conventional scalp electrodes in infants (3 weeks to 3 years of age) and adults. The latency of one of the major response components (wave V) is shown to be a function both of click intensity and the age of the subject; this latency at a given signal strength shortens postnatally to reach the adult value (about 6 msec) by 12 to 18 months of age. The demonstrated reliability and limited variability of these brain stem electrophysiological responses provide the basis for an optimistic estimate of their usefulness as an objective method for assessing hearing in infants and adults.

Hecox, K.↗